KT v Duncan and Suns v Spurs: An Analysis

[Mainstreet]

The best way to beat SA is to run, run, run. In the half court, I think the best way to play TD is to play him one on one and at least flash the quick double team. Yes, TD will score his points but I would rather him scoring the points than leave their other players open. In other words, the Suns are more likely to beat SA if they try to make TD be their primary scoring option and stay home on their other players. If TD can score 50 points a game then let him. It's sort of like the Kobe strategy. If Kobe is scoring 50 points a game for the Lakers, it is usually good for the opposition long term.

 

[The Man In Black]

Mainstreet-That's exactly the plan that Pop had for Stoudamire in 05 but remember Tim is adept at being a playmaker from the post if he has to be. His favorite player growing up was Magic Johnson and he likes to pass the ball. It is 5 on 5 and if PHX D can be that disciplined to force Duncan into a 1 against many type of game then yes, Phoenix can win playing that game.

 

[Mainstreet]

Mainstreet-That's exactly the plan that Pop had for Stoudamire in 05 but remember Tim is adept at being a playmaker from the post if he has to be. His favorite player growing up was Magic Johnson and he likes to pass the ball. It is 5 on 5 and if PHX D can be that disciplined to force Duncan into a 1 against many type of game then yes, Phoenix can win playing that game.

Yes, Phoenix gets lured into leaving the Spurs other players unguarded. I think TD is too team oriented to try to score say 50 points a game... at least as a regular option. If the Suns can be disciplined enough to stay home on all their players then I think it will disrupt the Spurs chemistry.

I know they're rookies but I'm hoping that players like Tucker and Strawberry might be quick enough to drop into TD's lap and still quick enough to guard the outside shot. Also if just one of the rookies (say Strawberry) could stick with Tony Parker, this would be a huge help.

 

[The Man In Black]

You see what I see. Inherently the top 3 teams all affect each other and Houston with it's changes might be #4. This regular season we can pretty much count on Phoenix beating Dallas, Dallas beating San Antonio, and San Antonio beating Phoenix. It's strange how the matchups work. It's in the playoffs, what I'm hoping for is that all teams come in full strength and let the chips fall where they may. I'm hoping for a repeat and see the Spurs as capable but again, it's a long season and every team mentioned above except for San Antonio has brought in new key players. Phoenix brought in Grant Hill, Dallas brought in Trenton Hassell, and Houston brought in Luis Scola. It's going to be a dogfight.

 

[azirish]

Every season has its own reality. We can get carried away over analyzing what happened the previous season when lots of things change. Look at last year's Clippers for a classic example.

Are the Suns better than last season? So far it looks like it, but they have not played any games yet.

Are the Spurs better? Possibly, but their additions are not likely to have the impact a healty Grant Hill would.

Does that make the Suns better? Who knows? The Spurs create a major matchup problem for the Suns, but their margin for error is not great. KT is a competant low post defender, but he's not a superstar and they should be able to find someone who can keep Duncan from just running over his defender or fouling out Amare in the first quarter.

In any case, the Suns are not going to beat the Spurs by out defensiving them. You need a straight on shot blocker but there aren't many who run and don't get paid $22 million a year. But the Spurs cannot afford to get into a scoring contest with the Suns either.

There is mystique about the Spurs being able to play any style based on how successful they were at the end of the 2004-05 playoff series. But I seriously doubt they'd try again.

 

[The Man In Black]

There is mystique about the Spurs being able to play any style based on how successful they were at the end of the 2004-05 playoff series. But I seriously doubt they'd try again.

They can still run and yes they can still play any style but would prefer to keep the game in the high 80's to mid 90's. For them it's all about ball control and possession. If they can hold on to the ball and run plays, it minimizes the running teams chances. If Phoenix doesn't get high volume shots, can they score as efficiently?

That is what remains to be seen. When KT was in the game, that slowed down the running Suns. With the Spurs, there is no longer a Rasho that can't play due to foot speed. Oberto, Elson, and especially the new 6'10 French Pogo Stick Ian Mahinmi all like to run. Duncan controlling the boards, can outlet to either Ginobili or Parker who in turn can run 2nd break opps to any number of players or just as importantly to the Spurs, they can just as easily...slow it down.

 

[HooverDam]

Man in Black, you crack me up, I appreciate your civil sports talk, but you act like any strategy against the Spurs is doomed for failure. You pick it apart and then give yourself an out, its a very weird way of writing.

Anyway, I think if the Horry thing doesn't happen last year, the Suns win the NBA title. I truly believe that in my heart, the Suns took the Spurs to their limit w/ out Amare...I can't imagine the Spurs would be that effective w/ out their 2nd best player (Parker).

 

[The Man In Black]

It's actually pretty simple.

A lot of the times, even if a team knows what's coming, as long as it's executed to it's fullest ability, then the likelihood of success can be attained.

That's the rub, there is NO GUARANTEE that execution can be done to that level.

So in essence, whoever can play their game best, especially in critical endgame periods, will win.

Do you have any other theories Hoover. I've given you that those teams that can recognize mid-range jump shots are the best strategy against the Spurs have a better chance than those that live by the 3 or attempt to attack the funnel to the 2 bigs D.

 

[Errntknght]

What MIB says about the mid-range game certainly makes sense to me. We know from experience that the Spurs defend the 3 very well and if you go all the way to the rim you give their excellent help D time to work. Amare can still score at the rim pretty well because he will have gotten by one of their big men to start with and he's simply hard to contend with once he's at the rim.

We have Hill now and he has a very good midrange game plus he's quite creative at the rim. Almost certainly the Spurs will respond by having Bowen defend him with Manu taking over at times to spell Bruce. With his size, craftiness and a bit of respect from the refs Hill should still do fairly well. This would be another good place to have guards setting picks for a 'big' because if they switch Grant gets an immediate mid-range shot - I don't have a lot of faith that the Suns coaching staff would figure that out, however. Nash will do it some at a matter of course and maybe the coaches will pick up on it when he does - one can always hope.

I still think the Suns should go with a small frontcourt most of the time and intentionally make TD work hard on defense in all the ways I mentioned before. They would cycle Marion, Stoudemire, Hill and maybe Diaw on him defensively - and take their lumps. That means very little double teaming. It probably wouldn't look pretty at first because Tim could score almost at will against any of them but it would tire him some - and he doesn't really like to score bundles. I wouldn't advocate intentionally fouling him because that seems to make his FT shooting improve but I'd have the guys play him tight to encourage him to drive - and thus expend more energy. With three or four guys taking turns we could afford to foul him a good amount and put pressure on him to make FTs - we all know he succumbs to that pressure at times. Naturally, we wouldn't try to deny him the ball since we want him to be their main scorer - late in the game we might have to if he's still going strong. We'd save the double teaming for that stage of the game, too.

MIB, I'd be interested to hear who you think the Spurs would have TD guard if he has to pick among Stoudemire, Hill and Marion. My guess is that they'd eventually put him on Stoudemire like they did a couple of years back and have him play tight so Amare had to drive - precisely the same approach we are using against him. Amare is not as tough a cover as he used to be so he'd wouldn't be racking up 37 points a game. Of course, if Amare really has a 3 pt shot then it hurts because Tim defending at the arc takes him too far from the action. We'll have to see about that...

Putting him on Marion is sort of waste as he doesn't score much against the Spurs - besides he will make Tim run more than anyone else would. Hill is probably too quick for Duncan and Tim couldn't lay back off him - best of all from Hill's point of view, there won't be and TD waiting for him at the basket.

 

[azirish]

There is a cascade issue when trying to defend against the Suns. You can't have Bowen guard everybody and deciding between stopping Nash or Hill promises to create some interesting problem.

Bowen can guard anyone, but playing tight risks Hill getting lose to attack Duncan to get him into trouble. At the same time, Hill is tall enough to make entry passes.

BTW, putting Parker on Nash means using Manu or Finley on Barbosa. Neither can stay in front of him and risk leaving Leandro open to shoot threes.

Another intersting issue was himted at in Saturday's srimmage where Hill was focued on getting the ball to Marion for layups by drive and dump plays. If Marion were to simply cut to the basket when his man helps off him, he could get a lot of points by back door cuts. In any case, it could create some issues for Duncan.

IMHO, the key to beating the Spurs is to attack Duncan. Yes, he's a great shot blocker, but because he is so important to the Spurs on offense, he becomes very tentative when he gets into foul trouble. Once in the paint, the key is internal passing so that Duncan cannot just set himself. With Amare, Hill, Barbosa, Diaw, Banks, etc. going at him with the objective of getting him to foul them, Duncan's role could be radically altered. It's not like he's going to get a lot of help since everyone has a scoring threat to worry about.

Defensively, the Suns need to do a better job of playing denial when double teaming Duncan (cutting off passing lanes), rotating quickly when he passes, and anticipating the spin moves that Manu and Parker use. Obviously it would help if one of the Suns bigs can play Duncan one on one for a period, but they cannot win without better team defense.

The Spurs are still going to be favored, but if healthy I think the Suns are a lot better prepared this season.

 

[The Man In Black]

MIB, I'd be interested to hear who you think the Spurs would have TD guard if he has to pick among Stoudemire, Hill and Marion.

Knowing some of the tendencies that the Spurs run on D. Pop has a myriad of choices. On all the boards I go to, most fans see the matchups as 1 on 1 for all 5 positions and it seems, for much of the game. They see it as a static "this person will always cover this player" going so far as to make a post about how player A will outplay player b.
Clearly that's not how most basketball coaches think. They see a dynamic flow and will assess for any advantage that can be gleaned by such things as player matchups, size and speed factor, opposition negative tendencies etc..
For the Spurs, against the Suns, I always see some form of the Triangle and 2, as well as an inverted triangle and 2. Having quick, athletic guards in the form of Parker and Ginobili, and to a lesser extent, Bowen, Finley & Barry just stay in front of scoring players helps the Spurs. The other 3 players on the court play a form of zone with 2 on the blocks and that 3rd defender in the middle who must be able to cover FT-line area and also the ball-side low block when the ball rotates to the corner. When Bowen is defending that premier wing or guard, it's highly likely that Ginobili covers that middle area. He is a very capable defender and his steals ratio shows he has a penchant for the ball.
When it's inverted, Tim is the last line of defense and Bowen and Oberto cover the FT line with Ginobili & Parker stopping early perimeter attacks.

My guess is that they'd eventually put him on Stoudemire like they did a couple of years back and have him play tight so Amare had to drive - precisely the same approach we are using against him.

That could happen, but with the intent to just challenge him to a harder shot, positionally Tim will want to stay fairly close but he fully trusts that rotation(something the veteran Spurs have down cold) so even if Amare' gets that step, there could still be someone to challenge him, but now he has a rotating player in front or to the side PLUS Duncan behind him OR Amare gets a clean break and drops a shot for 2. It will be both but some allowances are by design.

Amare is not as tough a cover as he used to be so he'd wouldn't be racking up 37 points a game. Of course,

He still is a tough cover, that athletecism has lessened but even on a bad day, Amare has loads more athletecism than Duncan. Duncan just relies on his fundamental brilliance and that ain't nothing to scoff at as evidenced by his placements on both ALL-NBA and ALL-NBA D Teams consecutively.

if Amare really has a 3 pt shot then it hurts because Tim defending at the arc takes him too far from the action. We'll have to see about that...

If Amare really has a 3 point shot, then you've just A)Taken your best interior threat and turned him into a Euro and B)Should he miss, left the rebound to players that still have to contend with 1 other big crashing the board. Tim wouldn't be out there all that much and a switch would occur, probably with Tim sinking to the glass and either Oberto or a wing to just challenge the shot.

 

[mribnik]

If Amare really has a 3 point shot, then you've just A)Taken your best interior threat and turned him into a Euro and B)Should he miss, left the rebound to players that still have to contend with 1 other big crashing the board. Tim wouldn't be out there all that much and a switch would occur, probably with Tim sinking to the glass and either Oberto or a wing to just challenge the shot.

I heard this several times and I don't buy it at all. Adding another dimension to a players game is not a negative thing. Amare isn't going to be shooting 3-pointers like Dirk, but he'll shoot the occasional 3 when he's wide open. He made 2-3 for team USA and his form looked amazing. I don't want to see him shooting 3's all the time, and the Suns have said they don't want him doing that either. However, this does allow D'Antoni to run an offense at times that is sorta a fusion between last year's offense and the offense from 05-06. Give it to Diaw in the low post and spot Amare up in the corner. The spacing could be phenomenal. That all being said, Amare has done much much more than work on this 3 pointer this year. I saw him comfortably making fade-aways in the post, bank shots etc.

 

[azirish]

http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/PaulCoro/8688

Amare Stoudemire (kind of cool that he even wanted to make the one-game trip given his knee rehabilitation) was offering $10 to a couple teammates if they could name who he was imitating with a move.

He crossed over a dribble from his right hand to his left before going back to the right for a drive. His targets didn't get it but Sean Marks, stretching out on the floor behind him, got it right: Tim Hardaway.

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

The Ankle Breaker Extraordinaire!

 

[arwillan]

A lot of the times, even if a team knows what's coming, as long as it's executed to it's fullest ability, then the likelihood of success can be attained.

That's the rub, there is NO GUARANTEE that execution can be done to that level.

So in essence, whoever can play their game best, especially in critical endgame periods, will win.

Do you have any other theories Hoover. I've given you that those teams that can recognize mid-range jump shots are the best strategy against the Spurs have a better chance than those that live by the 3 or attempt to attack the funnel to the 2 bigs D.

finally a spurs fan other than popovich with some brains!

anyway i think the midrange game is the best way to beat the spurs. we saw that in the series against dallas 2 years back. dallas is a midrange team , and that is why they won. they executed that part of their game in the clutch and came out on top.
amare adding a 3 to his game is great for playing the spurs. duncan on the perimeter is such an advantage for us! if oberto switches onto him, amare can drive right past him and hopefully kick it out to the corner or finish over duncan like he used to

 

[Hugh D'Man]

If I remember correctly, it wasn't TD killing the Suns, it seemed a couple of games Parker did what he wanted. Furthermore, if perhaps one of you statmen can post Barbosa's effectiveness during that series, I'd think you would find he pulled a Qrich. He was thouroughly frustrated, stunk it up shooting wise, and said so in his ever so humble way himself. I don't know if you can credit the SA D for Barbo's offaim, but had he (and Doris as well) been more effective offensively, well, the outcome should have been different.

Duncan be damned, to beat the spurs, we have to be firing on all 5 cylinders.

 

[azirish]

If I remember correctly, it wasn't TD killing the Suns, it seemed a couple of games Parker did what he wanted. Furthermore, if perhaps one of you statmen can post Barbosa's effectiveness during that series, I'd think you would find he pulled a Qrich. He was thouroughly frustrated, stunk it up shooting wise, and said so in his ever so humble way himself. I don't know if you can credit the SA D for Barbo's offaim, but had he (and Doris as well) been more effective offensively, well, the outcome should have been different.

Duncan be damned, to beat the spurs, we have to be firing on all 5 cylinders.

Barbosa was injured during the Laker's series, but had to play because there was no one else to fill in. He had surgery in June and still bothers him, although not nearly as much.

 

[The Man In Black]

I heard this several times and I don't buy it at all. Adding another dimension to a players game is not a negative thing. Amare isn't going to be shooting 3-pointers like Dirk, but he'll shoot the occasional 3 when he's wide open. He made 2-3 for team USA and his form looked amazing.

Call it an added dimension, but again, think of the game as a series of ebbs and flows. Considering that Amare's greatness is predicated by his mid-range J and his ability to attack the rim, throwing in an occasional 3 if the situation arises is fine, but should he fall in love with it due to early season success, the possibility does exist that when the playoffs arrive, when the defenses get much, much tougher, that 3 point shot could become a hinderance. His high FG% is due to that mid-range and in game. Also, again, the other 4 players will still have to deal with taller post players that the Spurs will keep down in the paint. Finally, you can't forget that FIBA 3 is only 20'6 so 2 of 3 is pretty easy from that distance. Add the extra distance for the NBA 3 and it becomes a little bit harder. I know he has been working on it but remember the Spurs already deal with Dirk in division and RC and Pop have added pieces that they feel will still make it harder to shoot 3's against them.

anyway i think the midrange game is the best way to beat the spurs. we saw that in the series against dallas 2 years back. dallas is a midrange team , and that is why they won. they executed that part of their game in the clutch and came out on top.

That is huge misconcenption that because Dallas is a mid-range team that they won. It's true that they did win, but chalk it up to simplifying the offense and turning up the defense. It's funny it took a former Spurs PG to get Dallas past San Antonio. But truthfully, had Manu blocked that shot instead of fouled Dirk, we coudl be taking 3 peat right now but it wasn't meant to be. Things happen for a reason, and self-control is a huge part of the game. Going into the time-out that preceded Dirk's and 1, the team was instructed NOT to foul. IT is what it is.

Still the mid-range game will cause issues but the maxim live by the J, die by the J, can and does happen. You need to mix it up, having Grant Hill create something out of nothing is a nice piece to have. But I always try to get people to recognize that when a team has not 1 but 2 ALL-NBA D members on the same team, plus have a reputation for playing tough physical defense, that refs are going to give those ALL-D members the same kind of levity they give to ALL-NBA scorers. That is a critical reason as to why the Spurs play stifling D.

 

[azirish]

The Spurs were less effective at defensing the Suns than the other playoff teams they faced last season . There are a lot of reasons to think the Suns offense will be substantively better than last year but not much reason to believe that Finley, Barry, and Horry are going to better on defense.

On the other side of the ball, the Suns do not have KT; but with Sean Marks showing some promise, the combination of Marks and Skinner could give the Suns an extra 6 fouls to beat up Duncan with.

 

[The Man In Black]

There are a lot of reasons to think the Suns offense will be substantively better than last year but not much reason to believe that Finley, Barry, and Horry are going to better on defense.

It's not that they are going to be better. You have to remember that the Spurs are a team that plays better than the sum of their parts. As long as these guys stick to their defined roles, the team will do it's thing, make it's adjustments and then just play their game. Bones Barry has declared that he will call it a career after this season, but even if he doesn't play any better than he did last year, the Spurs will still be Top 3 in Opponents Field Goal Percentage Allowed. The scheme is important. Add Ime Udoka-A Bowen understudy, a rested Ginobili, an even better Tony Parker, and I think the Spurs have at least addressed the changes Phoenix has made.

On the other side of the ball, the Suns do not have KT; but with Sean Marks showing some promise, the combination of Marks and Skinner could give the Suns an extra 6 fouls to beat up Duncan with.

We know Kiwi very,very well. He has a ring playing for Pop but never could enter the regular rotation. He is an awesome team guy willing to give it his all and knows some of Tim's tendencies but even saying that Tim can infuse his will and beat Kiwi just because Duncan is that fundamentally brilliant. Besides, we've all seen Tim beat the Suns by rebounding and passing circa 2003 and we've seen him do it with owning the low block circa 2005, and 07 take out a strong defender in KT. For 08' don't know but you can bet he ain't resting on his past accomplishments.

 

[azirish]

Just remember this:

Brent Barry, Born 1971
Bruce Bowen, Born 1971
Michael Finley, Born 1973
Robert Horry, Born 1970

Even their "younger" players are over 30:

Fabricio Elson, Born 1975
Jacque Vaughn, Born 1975
Tim Duncan, Born 1976
Francisco Elson, Born 1976
Manu Ginobili, Born 1977

Parker is their only "young" star. Yes, the Suns have some older players too, but not nearly as many. It doesn't matter what these guys did two or three years ago, they are getting older and the Suns are getting quicker.

 

[The Man In Black]

You can play the age card all you'd like. Spurs fans can call it the EXPERIENCE FACTOR and then show ring count. All those guys up there have what your city wants. 5 of 8 of those players have multiple rings. Your primary MVP isn't exactly a spring chicken, wonerfully gifted yes, but young, no and your team goes as he goes. Duncan has shown that he can play 3rd wheel behind Ginobili & Parker and just focus on defense and rebounding, whereas Nash has to be his MVP self.

So again...just putting basketball skills into account, old or not, The Spurs have the upper hand and it's shown on the court in terms of wins.

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

Does your mother know you root for a player that body checked a player half his size into the scorer's table then elbowed his teammate in the face?

 

[The Man In Black]

Yeah and she roots for the same player and the team he plays for

Didn't like that it happened but it did and what happened after, we all know.

But seriously, it's about the game of basketball. All I'll say about it is that Nash was hoping for a measured response, when he took the cross-check and got what he wanted when it came to Horry's response. What he didn't count on was his team's inability to stay in the bench area.

The elbow part I don't recall. I actually do remember Horry as a member of the Lakers racking DRob's gonads trying to chase down a rebound, I didn't find that event to my liking either.

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

He elbowed raja bell in the face as he confronted horry. Funny how you cant recall that part!

Didnt like that it happened, but it happened, and its about the game of basketball... is that really how you cope with it?

Well im sure your whole family is proud to root for a team that plays dirty and received the worst television ratings in NBA history. Whats not to like?! They have fundamentals!

Did you know everyone not living in or from texas hates texas?

Sorry if youre in the mood to spin everything into a spurs dynasty press release, I felt like giving you an outsider's point of view.