Larry Hughes to Cavs?

[Joe Mama]

Let's face it, being an NBA GM is closer to being a poker player than a chess master. No one can win every hand and every move involves an awful lot of risk. Also, nothing is gained by worrying about past bets that didn't work out since typically it won't tell a thing about future decisions.

True, but the question is still how best to cut one's losses. At the time, I thought it was correct to wait on Johnson. Now it does like that decision may backfire, but I still think it was the best decision at the time, based on the available information. So now which loss would be greater -- to bid Johnson farewell and to find other ways to spend "his" money, or to keep him in the fold and get stuck behind yet another untradeable contract? I definitely agree that it's guesswork rather than science, but that doesn't make the answer any clearer.

Ultimately it comes down to how good the Phoenix Suns think JJ really is now and more importantly how good he will be in a couple of years. Even when he was putting up much better numbers after Hardaway was traded he was inconsistent with his shooting. Last year his shooting was much more consistent, but he was the third or fourth option on offense.

So how good is he going to be?

Joe Mama

 

[George O'Brien]

Ultimately it comes down to how good the Phoenix Suns think JJ really is now and more importantly how good he will be in a couple of years. Even when he was putting up much better numbers after Hardaway was traded he was inconsistent with his shooting. Last year his shooting was much more consistent, but he was the third or fourth option on offense.

So how good is he going to be?

Joe Mama

That's the question. If all he does is continue to play like he did in the last half of this past season, he's one of the better wing men in the NBA. The kicker is that at 24 he might become a whole lot better than just really good.

Up to this point, the Suns have not tried to put too much responsibility on JJ. He was just one of five offensive threats, all treated equally with Amare being a bit more equal than the others. But JJ has the ability to create his own shot, the size to post up most guards and the passing skills to run a lot more of the offense through his hands than they did last season.

There is a legitimate case to be made that Marion is not worth his contract because he's not going to get better while his contract keeps increasing. But JJ is getting better and walking away from him now could be the kind of decision that would haunt the Suns for a generation. It's one thing to trade Dan Majerle for Hot Rod, which was done for tactical reasons, but the bottom line was the Suns went from winning 59 games to 41 the season afterward.

 

[cly2tw]

George,

because JJ was never trusted to lead the team, his leadership quality to other teams is suspect at best. In the playoffs, he proved he could create his own shots to some extent but he is far off the level of LBJ, Wade, or even Pierce.

Actually, were the Hawks to offer the max and Suns did not match, Hawks were more likely to suffer from the so-called "Winner's curse", meaning JJ might not be able to deliver what they expected.

Actually, we should tell Joe's agent that we were open to sign-and-trade deals if they wouldn't accept our improved offer. Let them fetch those offers and I doubt Joe would like to really go to Hawks in that scenario.

 

[Errntknght]

My gut feeling about Joe is that he's not going to be worth what we'll have to pay to keep him. He didn't really step it up in the playoffs - though the timing of that injury wiped out the series against the Spurs as far as gauging his value. And that was going to be the crucial test. His return did not give the team a lift and I came away thinking that we've been overrating his defensive ability.

He is less productive at home than on the road which indicates he still has a mental weakness. Of course, he has progressed since his inconsistent days but the Suns are essentially betting that he'll improve considerably more - and they're having to guess.

I think he'll wind up like Shawn - overpaid but not drastically so and we'll have lots of arguments about whether he's worth his pay or not. To me, max players have to prove it in the playoffs - if they don't step their game up then they are not worth the max.

 

[overseascardfan]

The Sun's have made some mistakes in the last year:

Not keeping last year's #1 and taking Iguodala
Not signing JJ to a six year 48 - 54 million dollar deal


If we would have signed JJ last off season we would be in good shape, or they should have drafted Iguodala and traded JJ for Samuel Dalembert.

Now they can't let JJ walk because there is no one out left to replace him. Plus I feel he could be our 6'8 PG of the future. Eventually you might have to trade somebody for cap flexibility but not right now.

 

[Joe Mama]

The Sun's have made some mistakes in the last year:

Not keeping last year's #1 and taking Iguodala
Not signing JJ to a six year 48 - 54 million dollar deal


If we would have signed JJ last off season we would be in good shape, or they should have drafted Iguodala and traded JJ for Samuel Dalembert.

I was basically agreeing until I hit the part about Dalembert. I'm not sure why everybody thinks that the 76ers would have made that deal. Even if Dalembert doesn't get quite a maximum contract young, promising centers have more value than their wing man counterparts.

Joe Mama

 

[George O'Brien]

I was basically agreeing until I hit the part about Dalembert. I'm not sure why everybody thinks that the 76ers would have made that deal. Even if Dalembert doesn't get quite a maximum contract young, promising centers have more value than their wing man counterparts.

Joe Mama

I've only seen Dalembert a few times and he seems like a good prospect. But I cannot figure out the self contradicting arguments given for the proposed deals.

1. Dalembert is going to be great, so we should give away a top player to get him.

2. The Sixers don't know how good he is and will let him go cheap.

3. Since Dalembert is under a rookie contract and is thus cheap, the Sixers will have to throw in another really good player to make the salaries match.

My prediction is that Dalembert will get a $70 for five offer pretty soon and the Sixers will match.

 

[lancelet's cousin]

Everything I've read has said that the Sixers are serious about re-signing Dalembert. That's fine with me.

I must have seen only his bad games, because I don't have a favorable impression of him when talking big money. Every game I've seen him play he seems to fumble the ball way too much. But I have also noticed he is a tremendous athlete for his size, so I see how others are enamored with him. I'm just glad its not the Suns throwing a large contract at him for the chance that he could develop into the player that put together a few good games the season before last.

 

[overseascardfan]

I was basically agreeing until I hit the part about Dalembert. I'm not sure why everybody thinks that the 76ers would have made that deal. Even if Dalembert doesn't get quite a maximum contract young, promising centers have more value than their wing man counterparts.

Joe Mama

I don't know when O' Brien was fired but he didn't like Dalembert and there were rumors this season that Dalembert was available and the Sixers were intersted in trading for JJ. Now that Billy King is in office Dalembert is now off the market. They still have Marc Jackson so I guess that's why O'Brien would have dealt him.

 

[Joe Mama]

I don't know when O' Brien was fired but he didn't like Dalembert and there were rumors this season that Dalembert was available and the Sixers were intersted in trading for JJ. Now that Billy King is in office Dalembert is now off the market. They still have Marc Jackson so I guess that's why O'Brien would have dealt him.

the way I understood it one of the reasons O'Brien was fired was because of the way he handled Dalembert. Billy King and the owner have liked him for a while.

Joe Mama

 

[Goldfield]

How much is too much? At what point does Sarver say, "screw the championship, I'm not going to spend the money"? $50 million, $60 million, $79 million, $80 million. I'm sure there is some point that is beyond the pale, but I'm not sure where that is. What I am sure of is that some fans think the limit is fairly low and others think it is a lot higher. I'm part of the second group.

Maybe I'm wrong. If the absolute limit is in the mid $50's, then we can simply write off any chance of the Suns winning the championship. Amare is going to be extremely expensive, Nash is fairly pricy, JJ is going to be very expensive, and Marion is already very expensive. The only way the Suns can substantially reduce their payroll is a salary dump and that is not going to make them a better team. Nothing short of giving their players away would ever get the Suns into major free agency and you have only to look at Cleveland to see just how limited that can be.True, I have never seen a Suns team with this amount of potential. Now & for the future.

Curiously enough, a year and a half ago the Suns had a much worse salary situatatin than they are projected to have for next three years. But their problem was that they had a $65 million payroll and were not going to even be in the playofffs. They needed to get better and couldn't with the players they had.

The situation is different now. The Suns do not need to make massive changes to get better. They've put together a contender. How good is this team? Consider that most of the debate on this board is over who to get to be the 8th and 9th guys in the rotation and that outstanding veterans might not want to come here because there isn't enough playing time.

The Colangelos have spent a lifetime trying to put together a team like this. On paper at least, the 2005-06 Suns are better than best of Sun's teams of the early 90's: bigger, better balanced, equal if not better shooting, and this team should be vastly better defensively than those teams.

And so they are going to throw it all away because someday down the road this team will have a really high payroll?

True, I cant remember a Suns team with this much potential. For now and the future.