Learning from the 2012 draft

[JCSunsfan]

http://www.nba.com/draft/2012/

I was looking at the 2012 draft and its amazing how many teams got it wrong.

1. The number one pick was a hit with Anthony Davis
2. Kentucky second banana Kidd-Gilchrist hasnt done much.
3. What ever happened to Thomas Robinson. He was touted by scouts to go #2? He had the motor, the attitude, good-guy, great wingspan etc.
4. Detroit too Drummond when many said they should have taken Henson. Joe Dumars didn't get fired for that choice.

Curious about your thoughts in retrospect. What did the experts miss?

 

[sunsfan88]

Thomas Robinson's just too short.

Even during a time like now in which teams heavily go small ball, it's still hard for tweeners to make it in this league unless you bring the type of motor that Faried does.

Thomas Robinson, Derrick Williams, Anthony Bennett and next year Julius Randle will all be similar tweeners who just couldn't come even close to living up their draft selection imo.

 

[SO91]

Thomas Robinson's just too short.

Even during a time like now in which teams heavily go small ball, it's still hard for tweeners to make it in this league unless you bring the type of motor that Faried does.

Thomas Robinson, Derrick Williams, Anthony Bennett and next year Julius Randle will all be similar tweeners who just couldn't come even close to living up their draft selection imo.

He's listed at 6'9" , 240lbs. IMO, size is not the issue.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Thomas Robinson's just too short.

Even during a time like now in which teams heavily go small ball, it's still hard for tweeners to make it in this league unless you bring the type of motor that Faried does.

Thomas Robinson, Derrick Williams, Anthony Bennett and next year Julius Randle will all be similar tweeners who just couldn't come even close to living up their draft selection imo.

No way. Randle has a position in the NBA. He's a little shorter than you'd like but no Coach is going to try and take him away from his strength. He'll be a power forward his entire career and it will be a good one. I don't know if he'll ever be great but he'll be enough of a threat to dominate most low post defenders and there will be very few teams that can guard him without bringing the double team. If he were two inches taller, I'd pencil him in for the Hall of Fame. As it is, I'd say he's a solid starter for a decade plus. He'll hit his peak much sooner than Al Jefferson although he'll probably peak a little lower than Al too.

There are several players in this draft with a higher ceiling than Randle but there aren't very many with a higher floor. Parker and maybe Wiggins match him in being a safe pick. If he gets drafted top three he might be a slight disappointment but he won't be anywhere near a bust IMO.

Steve

 

[JCSunsfan]

No way. Randle has a position in the NBA. He's a little shorter than you'd like but no Coach is going to try and take him away from his strength. He'll be a power forward his entire career and it will be a good one. I don't know if he'll ever be great but he'll be enough of a threat to dominate most low post defenders and there will be very few teams that can guard him without bringing the double team. If he were two inches taller, I'd pencil him in for the Hall of Fame. As it is, I'd say he's a solid starter for a decade plus. He'll hit his peak much sooner than Al Jefferson although he'll probably peak a little lower than Al too.

There are several players in this draft with a higher ceiling than Randle but there aren't very many with a higher floor. Parker and maybe Wiggins match him in being a safe pick. If he gets drafted top three he might be a slight disappointment but he won't be anywhere near a bust IMO.

Steve

So what is it that Randle has that Robinson didn't at the same point in time? And why did people miss Drummond's potential.

 

[Mainstreet]

There were good players selected at #14 (John Henson) and #18 (Terrence Jones) where the Suns pick in the upcoming draft.

Also it is best not to draft a point guard at #13 that is slow, can't defend and can't shoot.

 

[JCSunsfan]

There were good players selected at #14 (John Henson) and #18 (Terrence Jones) where the Suns pick in the upcoming draft.

Also it is best not to draft a point guard at #13 that is slow, can't defend and can't shoot.

Judging from how quickly McD moved Marshall off of this roster, I think it is safe to say that he would not have made that pick.

 

[AzStevenCal]

So what is it that Randle has that Robinson didn't at the same point in time? And why did people miss Drummond's potential.

I'm not completely sure why Robinson has yet to show up. In part it's because he was slightly over-drafted (I don't know if he's even a lotto pick in this draft) and ended up on perhaps the worst team possible (the Kings). Keep in mind that he was drafted on the strength of one season as a college starter. Prior to that he wasn't good enough to beat out either of the Morrises for two seasons. Could you imagine how Markieff would be today if he'd been drafted fifth by the Kings? Even with the trade to the Rockets, remember that they too were looking for a finished product and how quickly they bailed on Keef's brother.

Randle is a finished product down low, something Robinson never was. He has every move and then some and there's little question he'll be able to score inside at the NBA level. There's justifiable concern over his ability to handle the double team especially if there's length involved but he's a very smart offensive weapon.

As for Drummond, I don't think people really missed on his potential. He was highly regarded out of high school and again when it came to the NBA draft but it was starting to look like there was less and less a place for that traditional big man. His numbers in college don't really blow you away and teams are/were somewhat disenchanted with the big man project. You often get so little out of a big man on his first contract that many teams just aren't willing to wait on that type of player any longer.

Steve

 

[PhxGametime]

I really liked Drummond, he could really move his feet for a man that size... Gordon moves well (in this Draft) though he's much, much smaller. I'd prefer moving up for Gordon, Vonleh, or Randle - than to Trade Dragic or Bledsoe in package for Kevin Love. With report Wolves only value either player for Love Trade... losing either PG makes the Suns worse and Love would likely go to lakers after another non-playoff Season.

 

[elindholm]

I thought the question with Drummond was his attitude, not his potential.

In any case, every draft presents the same issues. All of the scouting and advanced metrics really end up revealing very little about who is going to succeed and who isn't. There's probably an average of about one prospect per year -- sometimes more, sometimes zero -- who is basically a safe bet to be an NBA impact player. Other than that, it's all educated guesses, and even the experts often get proved wrong.

 

[Errntknght]

I don't know what Robinson's stats were in college but he's got a host of weaknesses, though none are really glaring. Low in blocked shots but high in personal fouls is not a good combination, few steals and assists with fairly high TO's is likewise bad, and he doesn't shoot well. His one strength is rebounding and he runs the floor okay. It may be due to his situation but maybe he's just marginal in too many ways.

I agree with Elindholm in general about the draft... its just dang hard to tell who will succeed. Heck, sometimes it takes several years for the story to unfold on guys. Then, maybe, they hit the right situation with the right level of expectations and they blossom. Or they show flashes and fade - like Earl Clark did with the Lakers.

Remember LeBron James a few years ago when it began to look like he might lack the mental toughness to take the final step. He'd showed tremendous skills and had much success but even then there were a lot of us who thought then he'd never rival Jordan. If you can't make accurate projections with that much history on a guy - not to mention endless analysis - how the heck are you going to do it with sketchy data?

 

[JCSunsfan]

I think what happens AFTER the draft has a lot to do with it too. Coaching mix, teammates, how a player matures, and life choices all factor in. Its why DEVELOPING players is as important as drafting them.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I think what happens AFTER the draft has a lot to do with it too. Coaching mix, teammates, how a player matures, and life choices all factor in. Its why DEVELOPING players is as important as drafting them.

It is and that's why certain players tend to fail when they go to certain organizations. A lack of stable veteran leadership in addition to unrealistic expectations and a general failure to support and develop young players all go hand in hand with being a perennially bad franchise IMO.

Steve

 

[sunsfan88]

No way. Randle has a position in the NBA. He's a little shorter than you'd like but no Coach is going to try and take him away from his strength. He'll be a power forward his entire career and it will be a good one. I don't know if he'll ever be great but he'll be enough of a threat to dominate most low post defenders and there will be very few teams that can guard him without bringing the double team. If he were two inches taller, I'd pencil him in for the Hall of Fame. As it is, I'd say he's a solid starter for a decade plus. He'll hit his peak much sooner than Al Jefferson although he'll probably peak a little lower than Al too.

There are several players in this draft with a higher ceiling than Randle but there aren't very many with a higher floor. Parker and maybe Wiggins match him in being a safe pick. If he gets drafted top three he might be a slight disappointment but he won't be anywhere near a bust IMO.

Steve

I feel like you said similar things about Anthony Bennett last year and look how he's turned out so far.

I don't think Randle really has that high a floor. If his floor was Paul Milsap or Kenneth Faried, then I'd love him as a prospect but imo he isn't even close to that.

Bennett imo is the 7th best prospect in this draft after (in no particular order) Wiggins, Parker, Smart, Exum, Embiid, and Vonleh.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I feel like you said similar things about Anthony Bennett last year and look how he's turned out so far.

I don't think Randle really has that high a floor. If his floor was Paul Milsap or Kenneth Faried, then I'd love him as a prospect but imo he isn't even close to that.

really? i think that's exactly his floor with his ceiling being Zach Randolph. I think he's solid value at 7.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I feel like you said similar things about Anthony Bennett last year and look how he's turned out so far.

I don't think Randle really has that high a floor. If his floor was Paul Milsap or Kenneth Faried, then I'd love him as a prospect but imo he isn't even close to that.

Bennett imo is the 7th best prospect in this draft after (in no particular order) Wiggins, Parker, Smart, Exum, Embiid, and Vonleh.

Not even close. Not once did I paint Bennett as anything near a safe pick. He would have been one of my top choices (along with Nerlens) if we got lucky but it was in large part because I had no doubt he wouldn't raise our playing level for the 13-14 season. I thought it was a very weak draft and wanted a high spot in this draft more than I wanted anyone from that draft. Don't get me wrong, I thought (and still think) he could become a good player. I just didn't think there was any real chance of him having a first year impact and I wasn't convinced by any of the other high lottery names.

I'm too lazy to look up all my draft posts last year but if you wanted to attack my judgement on this subject I would have gone with Otto Porter. I thought he was one of the safest picks in the draft and had perhaps the highest floor. I am much more confident about Randle than I was Porter but I clearly missed on that one. It wasn't the first time, it won't be the last but I've been right on draft talent far more than I've missed through the years. When I do miss it's almost always me falling in love with athleticism and length (Stromile Swift comes to mind).

Steve

 

[sunsfan88]

Not even close. Not once did I paint Bennett as anything near a safe pick. He would have been one of my top choices (along with Nerlens) if we got lucky but it was in large part because I had no doubt he wouldn't raise our playing level for the 13-14 season. I thought it was a very weak draft and wanted a high spot in this draft more than I wanted anyone from that draft. Don't get me wrong, I thought (and still think) he could become a good player. I just didn't think there was any real chance of him having a first year impact and I wasn't convinced by any of the other high lottery names.

I'm too lazy to look up all my draft posts last year but if you wanted to attack my judgement on this subject I would have gone with Otto Porter. I thought he was one of the safest picks in the draft and had perhaps the highest floor. I am much more confident about Randle than I was Porter but I clearly missed on that one. It wasn't the first time, it won't be the last but I've been right on draft talent far more than I've missed through the years. When I do miss it's almost always me falling in love with athleticism and length (Stromile Swift comes to mind).

Steve

We all miss on picks. I'm not saying your always wrong because you missed on a couple earlier.

Just specifically in terms of tweeners, I thought you said similar things about Bennett as you did about Randle. I only remember it cause I remember me and you going back and forth about if he'd be a good pickup for us or not and I said no (citing his size) and you said yes. But yea you probably didn't endorse Bennett quite as much as Randle.

I thought Otto Porter would be good also. Its crazy to think how much better Washington would have been this year had they got anything from him. Or Charlotte with Zeller especially since Jefferson got hurt in that series against Miami.

Hell, its crazy to think how much better the Suns would have been had they got anything out of their 1st round picks.

 

[sunsfan88]

really? i think that's exactly his floor with his ceiling being Zach Randolph. I think he's solid value at 7.

I'd say David Lee/Al Harrington is his ceiling.

 

[Michael]

Charlotte got what they expected in MKG. He's their best defender, a great hustle guy and solid in the open court. I imagine nobody would have expected his shot to worsen (in efficiency and form alike), but with Mark Price working on it, there is still hope.

 

[AzStevenCal]

We all miss on picks. I'm not saying your always wrong because you missed on a couple earlier.

Just specifically in terms of tweeners, I thought you said similar things about Bennett as you did about Randle. I only remember it cause I remember me and you going back and forth about if he'd be a good pickup for us or not and I said no (citing his size) and you said yes. But yea you probably didn't endorse Bennett quite as much as Randle.

I thought Otto Porter would be good also. Its crazy to think how much better Washington would have been this year had they got anything from him. Or Charlotte with Zeller especially since Jefferson got hurt in that series against Miami.

Hell, its crazy to think how much better the Suns would have been had they got anything out of their 1st round picks.

I just searched my "Bennett" posts from a year ago and I was pretty consistent about him and my comments weren't at all like the ones I've made about Randle. I wanted him despite the fact that I thought he had a very good chance to bust. I might even have done what Cleveland did and grabbed him with the first pick but it was mostly because of how unimpressed I was with the other top names and my belief that we would be poised to tank the season.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a huge Randle fan. I just think he's a lock to be a safe pick, at least as much as someone can be in a typical draft. He's not a lock on the level that Lebron was but very few players have ever been as safe a pick as James was. But I don't see any reasonable way for Randle to fail because of on court performance, unless he gets drafted first and becomes a bust by comparison because he isn't Wiggins, Parker or Embiid. All three of those players have higher ceilings than Randle, probably much higher.

But Randle will likely be the best of the group right away and have a decade plus as a borderline all star. Wiggins has Kobe like potential, Parker looks to be the second coming of a healthy Bernard King and Embiid, if he truly hits his stride, could be the best of Olajuwon meets David Robinson. Randle's ceiling is nowhere near those but Wiggins might be no more than a poor man's Rudy Gay, Parker might top out at Mike Miller on a bad day and Embiid might spend more time in traction than Nikes.

Some of the people you're sitting in judgement on haven't been given a fair chance though (Zeller for example). I'll point again to Markieff. Look at how much better he was this season and remember all those people that would have traded him for a bag of Cheetos just a year ago. Now just imagine if he'd gone to a franchise that needed and expected him to be "the man" straight out of the gate.

Steve