Let’s Talk About Lamb

[TheCardFan]

Interesting debate on 49er forum about taking OT vs WR (very similar to our conversation). We are also mentioned.

https://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/193707-andrew-thomas-ot-georgia/

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

The people who don't want an OT at #8 are the same people that have incessantly moaned about our much our O line sucks for 10 years straight. Because there isn't a Cards fan who hasn't.

The offensive line was pretty good last year.

The stats about pressures/QB hits and Kyler’s mobility makes another, related, point: maybe the offensive line doesn’t need to be great for Kyler to get the job done. Of course, I would expect Kyler would play better with a better offensive line, but the NFL is a league of limited resources and they need to be allocated carefully. Stacking our limited draft capital into an offensive line that was decent last year, even with bad injury luck, would seem to be an error in that it fails to appropriately leverage Kyler’s unique escape traits. I absolutely would invest in offensive line talent with a QB like Brady or even Brees, but Kyler’s more like Russell Wilson and Seattle has been enormously successful with subpar offensive lines since Russell has been there. Instead they allocate their scarce resources into defense and offensive skill players. I wonder if Keim, who has had a front row seat to the Seattle success, is thinking the same way.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

If people are going to keep incessantly talking about doing something stupid I can't help but point out how stupid it is.

Many people here have actually started pushing the idea of Lamb at #8 MORE since we traded for Hopkins. As if having a matched pair is more valuable. This isn't antiques roadshow, it's not better to have two the same.

There are just so many reasons it's a bad idea.

1. If they give Nuk even just $18m APY that's $32m in our first 5 WR's. That's more than our starting 5 O linemen and the biggest cap hit of any position group on the roster already. They aren't going to add another $4.5m to it.

2. You can only have one WR1. We now have one. Why would you draft another WR1 with your #8 pick? You trade the 2nd for Nuk so you don't have to take the long shot on a receiver at #8.

3. Why would you draft one who's biggest NFL comp is the guy you just traded for and in doing so add nothing new in skill set to the roster?

4. Why would anyone trade a 2nd round pick for a top 3 WR and then use their #8 on another one that history shows has a 50/50 chance of hitting?

5. Hopkins hasn't had less than 150 targets in 5 years. There's only 1 ball. How do you get Lamb any kind of target share that makes him worth #8?

6. Why would you take targets away from a proven top NFL receiver you are paying $18-$20m a year to give them to the inferior version of the same player?

7. If you were dropped on your head as a child and decided to do that you are then taking targets away from Fitz. And thus stopping him getting the records he is gunning for.

8. You would also be pissing off the top WR you just traded for before he sets foot on the field. You just trade for the guy to make him your star receiver and you draft another receiver at #8 thats going to be competing for a share of the ball?

9. Who in their right mind with this roster would use both their top 2 picks on WR's? We aren't the Pats or some top tier team that are only a couple of receivers away from glory. We have major holes and depth issues everywhere.

10. Who is Lamb replacing? Kirk still has 2 years left on a rookie deal. Fitz keeps coming back every year. I very much doubt this is his last year. He's going to keep playing while he can and while he enjoys it. He's enjoyed it through a 3-13 season and a 5-10-1 season so I don't see that changing soon. What need is it filling exactly?

11. Kyler has shown that given time he can be a major deep threat ranking 4th last year in deep ball accuracy. Sadly, something we saw little of as he ran around to save his life or threw instant 5 yard checkdowns. You just traded for a superstar WR that you are going to pay big money. Wouldn't you want to ensure you can actually make the best use of him by giving your QB a worth O line?

12. Our current tackle group is oft injured Hump, even more oft injured Gilbert, 13 starts in 3 years Murray, and then some kids that never took a snap in the league.

13. We have 3 young WR's we drafted last year. Drafting a WR at 8 effectively kills all 3 of those guys off right away burning draft capital. We can't keep drafting the same positions over and over. We need to give those guys chance to develop.

I think I'm done now. You can just keep referring back to this.

Sometimes 2 + 2 equals more than 4.

In the case of picking a top receiver to pair with Hopkins, is it really that hard to see that a defense might be able to absorb and control a team with one or maybe two weapons, but would simply be overwhelmed when having to cover 3 or 4?

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Interesting debate on 49er forum about taking OT vs WR (very similar to our conversation). We are also mentioned.

https://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/193707-andrew-thomas-ot-georgia/

Jimmy G is another guy that needs to have better protection to maximize his talents.

 

[Solar7]

The offensive line was pretty good last year.

The stats about pressures/QB hits and Kyler’s mobility makes another, related, point: maybe the offensive line doesn’t need to be great for Kyler to get the job done. Of course, I would expect Kyler would play better with a better offensive line, but the NFL is a league of limited resources and they need to be allocated carefully. Stacking our limited draft capital into an offensive line that was decent last year, even with bad injury luck, would seem to be an error in that it fails to appropriately leverage Kyler’s unique escape traits. I absolutely would invest in offensive line talent with a QB like Brady or even Brees, but Kyler’s more like Russell Wilson and Seattle has been enormously successful with subpar offensive lines since Russell has been there. Instead they allocate their scarce resources into defense and offensive skill players. I wonder if Keim, who has had a front row seat to the Seattle success, is thinking the same way.

I'm going to try not to fight someone else's argument, but it's really a challenge here to let it slide.

Stats and independent evaluation of the line puts it at the bottom third of the league. So I challenge you to look at some other sources and ask why you think it was pretty good.

I question why you feel our offensive line's performance was adequate or good, but a WR corps that will be starting a top-3 WR, and returning our top two WRs from last year is inadequate. I would argue that stacking our limited draft capital into an already strong WR corps would seem to be an error.

As far as Kyler's escapability goes, I don't feel comfortable counting on it, especially when escaping pressure, by its very nature, means it's a broken play. That to me would seem to limit the effectiveness of the receivers and offense as a whole.

As my standard caveat - I think the defense deserves attention as well, so my perspective isn't OT no matter what.

 

[SoonerLou]

I'm not sure I'd take Lamb at 8. And yet I fear like hell him playing for the 49ers

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[Finito]

I'm not sure I'd take Lamb at 8. And yet I fear like hell him playing for the 49ers

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means nothing to me. I think he has the biggest bust potential out of the top 3

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

I'm going to try not to fight someone else's argument, but it's really a challenge here to let it slide.

Stats and independent evaluation of the line puts it at the bottom third of the league. So I challenge you to look at some other sources and ask why you think it was pretty good.

I question why you feel our offensive line's performance was adequate or good, but a WR corps that will be starting a top-3 WR, and returning our top two WRs from last year is inadequate. I would argue that stacking our limited draft capital into an already strong WR corps would seem to be an error.

As far as Kyler's escapability goes, I don't feel comfortable counting on it, especially when escaping pressure, by its very nature, means it's a broken play. That to me would seem to limit the effectiveness of the receivers and offense as a whole.

As my standard caveat - I think the defense deserves attention as well, so my perspective isn't OT no matter what.

YPC after Drake acquisition was over 5.

The offense finished 13 in DVOA with awful WR and a rookie QB.

I love Kyler, and he escaped a lot of pressure. But maybe that’s a feature and not a bug of the overall asset allocation within the organization.

 

[SoonerLou]

means nothing to me. I think he has the biggest bust potential out of the top 3

I dont think he busts. Think he can be a solid wr. Its more about Shanahan's smarts in knowing how to use him.

A couple of big time YAC wrs in Deebo/Lamb can cause problems. Cross that bridge when we get there though.

 

[Finito]

I dont think he busts. Think he can be a solid wr. Its more about Shanahan's smarts in knowing how to use him.

A couple of big time YAC wrs in Deebo/Lamb can cause problems. Cross that bridge when we get there though.

I don’t trust WR that come out of systems like that never pressed. Jimmy G still suck? Yup


Sorry don’t try and tell me how good he is when they let him throw it 9 times in a playoff game and they tried to replace him in the offseason That should tell you what they think of there QB

 

[SoonerLou]

I don’t trust WR that come out of systems like that never pressed. Jimmy G still suck? Yup


Sorry don’t try and tell me how good he is when they let him throw it 9 times in a playoff game and they tried to replace him in the offseason That should tell you what they think of there QB

I hope you're right about Jimmy G. A part of me wonders if being 2 years removed from an ACL injury will help him out more.

I totally get Lamb not getting pressed much in Big 12. However, he was destroying Bama. Kyler missed a couple of throws to him as well.

Even when Jimmy was off the 49ers still found ways to get the ball in Deebo's hands. Just not sure I want to face a team with two legit YAC wrs. I hope they take Ruggs and the lack of a consistent deep ball from JImmy makes him useless.

 

[gimpy]

"I'm going to try not to fight someone else's argument, but it's really a challenge here to let it slide."

As they say from one of my favorite songs, "Silence is Golden "-The Four Seasons.

 

[GatorAZ]

So I feel if ARZ goes WR (Jeudy and Lamb are equals) then that has to mean that Larry won't be back after next year as you can't keep paying him $11M when Lamb / Jeudy & Hopkins will be getting most of the targets.

After Keim's revelation that premium FA positions influence his drafting strategy you have to believe either Okudah or an OT who could eventually take over for Humphries at LT would be the direction ARZ will take. Keim unlike BA doesn't flat out lie. Keim may lack in talent evaluation but I will credit him for thinking ahead. He tries to maintain constant cap flexibility and build for the future. He knows Humphries could regress or continue to have issues with injuries so a replacement could be necessary soon. Also, Peterson will most likely be re-signed but if Okudah is there, a CB tandem of Peterson and Okudah with Murphy in slot would solidify the CB position that has been in flux for years.

The Hopkins acquisition extended Fitz’ career by two years. He’s going to be third in targets for the first time in his career and see the least amount of attention he ever has. Maybe we can get him down to 8-9m but I doubt it.

 

[BritCard]

I am not sure what that proves?

Here was his final big board from 2017:

Rank Player Pos. School
1 Myles Garrett EDGE Texas A&M
2 Leonard Fournette RB LSU
3 Reuben Foster LB Alabama
4 Jamal Adams S LSU
5 Solomon Thomas EDGE Stanford
6 Malik Hooker S Ohio State
7 O.J. Howard TE Alabama
8 Jonathan Allen DL Alabama
9 Quincy Wilson CB Florida
10 Marshon Lattimore CB Ohio State
11 Gareon Conley CB Ohio State
12 Mike Williams WR Clemson
13 David Njoku TE Miami (Fla.)
14 Mitchell Trubisky QB North Carolina
15 Corey Davis WR Western Michigan
16 Haason Reddick LB Temple
17 Charles Harris EDGE Missouri
18 Joe Mixon RB Oklahoma
19 Christian McCaffrey RB Stanford
20 Forrest Lamp G Western Kentucky

Mahomes was his #37 ranked player

It doesn't prove anything. I'm simply highlighting what Dvontel said.

Many Lamb fans here talk about taking BPA at 8 as if Lamb is 100% going to be the best player available. It's very unlikely he will be.

 

[juza76]

If finito says lamb has the biggest bust potential its pretty obvious he will win offensive rookie of the year

 

[BritCard]

The thinking is that Kingsbury and Murray are all about winning with a dynamic passing game, making that the strength of the team. They are also saying that Fitz and Kirk are hovering just above irrelevant, and Hopkins needs a couterpart.

Really?

Here are the wide receiver groups ranked best in the league last year

Falcons: Jones, Ridley, Sanu - 1394, 866, 520 - total 2780
Browns: OBJ, Landry, Ratley - 1035, 1174, 200 - total 2409
Rams: Cooks, Woods, Kupp - 583, 1134, 1161 - total 2878
Texans: Hopkins, Fuller, Stills - 1165, 974*, 561 - total 2673
Vikings: Theilen, Diggs, Johnson - 669*, 1130, 294 - total 2093

* - Short season extrapolated to full 16 games

The bottom 5 were Niners, Seahawks, Giants, Ravens, Redskins.

Only 1 of the top 5 teams made the playoffs. 3 of the bottom 5 made it.

By comparison lets see what our current 3 receivers would look based on their 2019 stats

Cardinals: Hopkins, Fitz, Kirk - 1165, 804, 872* - total 2841

That would make them the 2nd best trio in the league.

So why exactly do we need to waste our top pick on another WR?

 

[BritCard]

I hope you're right about Jimmy G. A part of me wonders if being 2 years removed from an ACL injury will help him out more.

I totally get Lamb not getting pressed much in Big 12. However, he was destroying Bama. Kyler missed a couple of throws to him as well.

Even when Jimmy was off the 49ers still found ways to get the ball in Deebo's hands. Just not sure I want to face a team with two legit YAC wrs. I hope they take Ruggs and the lack of a consistent deep ball from JImmy makes him useless.

The only good CB in the BIG12 is Jeff Gladney. Lamb had 14 yards in that game. He had 1 TD, but Gladney wasn't on the field.

 

[BullheadCardFan]

Really?

Here are the wide receiver groups ranked best in the league last year

Falcons: Jones, Ridley, Sanu - 1394, 866, 520 - total 2780
Browns: OBJ, Landry, Ratley - 1035, 1174, 200 - total 2409
Rams: Cooks, Woods, Kupp - 583, 1134, 1161 - total 2878
Texans: Hopkins, Fuller, Stills - 1165, 974*, 561 - total 2673
Vikings: Theilen, Diggs, Johnson - 669*, 1130, 294 - total 2093

* - Short season extrapolated to full 16 games

The bottom 5 were Niners, Seahawks, Giants, Ravens, Redskins.

Only 1 of the top 5 teams made the playoffs. 3 of the bottom 5 made it.

By comparison lets see what our current 3 receivers would look based on their 2019 stats

Cardinals: Hopkins, Fitz, Kirk - 1165, 804, 872* - total 2841

That would make them the 2nd best trio in the league.

So why exactly do we need to waste our top pick on another WR?

Good post with stats.

Bottom line is there is only one football and so many pass plays.

Bring in another front line WR and how does he get his catches this year?

Possibly next year if Larry retires.

But we need help now if possible.

I sure hope Okudah is there. You can never, and I mean never have enough quality CB's

 

[GuernseyCard]

Really?

Here are the wide receiver groups ranked best in the league last year

Falcons: Jones, Ridley, Sanu - 1394, 866, 520 - total 2780
Browns: OBJ, Landry, Ratley - 1035, 1174, 200 - total 2409
Rams: Cooks, Woods, Kupp - 583, 1134, 1161 - total 2878
Texans: Hopkins, Fuller, Stills - 1165, 974*, 561 - total 2673
Vikings: Theilen, Diggs, Johnson - 669*, 1130, 294 - total 2093

* - Short season extrapolated to full 16 games

The bottom 5 were Niners, Seahawks, Giants, Ravens, Redskins.

Only 1 of the top 5 teams made the playoffs. 3 of the bottom 5 made it.

By comparison lets see what our current 3 receivers would look based on their 2019 stats

Cardinals: Hopkins, Fitz, Kirk - 1165, 804, 872* - total 2841

That would make them the 2nd best trio in the league.

So why exactly do we need to waste our top pick on another WR?

Well done, but WO at #8 is not a waste.

He'll get his snaps in the KK system and eventually replaces your Fitz/804 or possibly Kirk/872.

I'm not advocating for WO if one of the projected "D" stalwarts drops, but I'm not sold on "O" lineman whose evaluation includes the caveat, "could move inside." I'd draft eventual guards in the 3rd or 4th rd.

 

[BritCard]

Well done, but WO at #8 is not a waste.

He'll get his snaps in the KK system and eventually replaces your Fitz/804 or possibly Kirk/872.

I'm not advocating for WO if one of the projected "D" stalwarts drops, but I'm not sold on "O" lineman whose evaluation includes the caveat, "could move inside." I'd draft eventual guards in the 3rd or 4th rd.

There are several obvious questions here.

Why do you need to replace Fitz or Kirk? Kirk is 24 years old, has 2 seasons left on a rookie deal and has stats comparable to most WR2's here. Fitz shows no sign of losing the ability or the passion to still play.

If Fitz does decide to retire you will know months before the draft and can find a replacement then. Why find one now you might not need for 2 years?

Either way, you are replacing a WR2/WR3. Who in their right mind drafts a WR2 or WR3 in the top 8 picks? You can get that further back.

We have 3 young WR's we just drafted last year. All with vastly different skill sets. Maybe we should give them a chance to show what they can do seeing as we don't have to draft another WR this year? No point buying a car, driving it off the forecourt then buying another car.

 

[overseascardfan]

The Hopkins acquisition extended Fitz’ career by two years. He’s going to be third in targets for the first time in his career and see the least amount of attention he ever has. Maybe we can get him down to 8-9m but I doubt it.

Another thing to remember is Larry is chasing Rice, that is the main reason he keeps playing. Say Larry has a 35 reception, 350 yard 4 TD season next year assuming ARZ takes Lamb, he'll never make ground in his attempt to reach Rice so he may retire after this season as he has plenty of interests outside of football but to keep paying him $11M a year for that type of year is crazy. Larry won't take a pay cut, many sources have said that. If ARZ takes one of Wirfs / Becton / Thomas then sure pay him $11M. What I don't want to hear is people say you can't have 2 CB's or 2 OLB's making $10M a year because if you can pay Fitz $11M then you can pay 2 productive players at the same position.

 

[GuernseyCard]

There are several obvious questions here.

Why do you need to replace Fitz or Kirk? Kirk is 24 years old, has 2 seasons left on a rookie deal and has stats comparable to most WR2's here. Fitz shows no sign of losing the ability or the passion to still play.

If Fitz does decide to retire you will know months before the draft and can find a replacement then. Why find one now you might not need for 2 years?

Either way, you are replacing a WR2/WR3. Who in their right mind drafts a WR2 or WR3 in the top 8 picks? You can get that further back.

We have 3 young WR's we just drafted last year. All with vastly different skill sets. Maybe we should give them a chance to show what they can do seeing as we don't have to draft another WR this year? No point buying a car, driving it off the forecourt then buying another car.

If the Cards draft WO it's because they are thinking 1a - 1b. (Fitz/Boldin)

Fitz = because he will retire eventually
Kirk = because "who knows?" when it comes to contract renewal.

If they go WO - 4 spots will be covered. The others can fight for the remaining 2 or 3 slots... and best of luck to them!

P.S. A car and an SUV is one of the keys to happiness in my domestic arrangement.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

There are several obvious questions here.

Why do you need to replace Fitz or Kirk? Kirk is 24 years old, has 2 seasons left on a rookie deal and has stats comparable to most WR2's here. Fitz shows no sign of losing the ability or the passion to still play.

If Fitz does decide to retire you will know months before the draft and can find a replacement then. Why find one now you might not need for 2 years?

Either way, you are replacing a WR2/WR3. Who in their right mind drafts a WR2 or WR3 in the top 8 picks? You can get that further back.

We have 3 young WR's we just drafted last year. All with vastly different skill sets. Maybe we should give them a chance to show what they can do seeing as we don't have to draft another WR this year? No point buying a car, driving it off the forecourt then buying another car.

I’m not sure I understand the premise that we are drafting a WR2 or WR3 at #8, just because we have Hop as WR1.

Who was WR1 for the Warner SB Rams: Holt or Bruce? What, exactly, is the issue with having two guys with WR1 talent in a pass-heavy offense?

 

[Dr. Jones]

Really?

Here are the wide receiver groups ranked best in the league last year

Falcons: Jones, Ridley, Sanu - 1394, 866, 520 - total 2780
Browns: OBJ, Landry, Ratley - 1035, 1174, 200 - total 2409
Rams: Cooks, Woods, Kupp - 583, 1134, 1161 - total 2878
Texans: Hopkins, Fuller, Stills - 1165, 974*, 561 - total 2673
Vikings: Theilen, Diggs, Johnson - 669*, 1130, 294 - total 2093

* - Short season extrapolated to full 16 games

The bottom 5 were Niners, Seahawks, Giants, Ravens, Redskins.

Only 1 of the top 5 teams made the playoffs. 3 of the bottom 5 made it.

By comparison lets see what our current 3 receivers would look based on their 2019 stats

Cardinals: Hopkins, Fitz, Kirk - 1165, 804, 872* - total 2841

That would make them the 2nd best trio in the league.

So why exactly do we need to waste our top pick on another WR?

Love it..... Flip the paradigm baby! Air Raid = Greatest Show On Turf v. 2.0

Like Steph's warriors were to the Mid 2000 Suns.

BE BOLD BABY!!! Change how the game is played!

 

[BritCard]

I’m not sure I understand the premise that we are drafting a WR2 or WR3 at #8, just because we have Hop as WR1.

Who was WR1 for the Warner SB Rams: Holt or Bruce? What, exactly, is the issue with having two guys with WR1 talent in a pass-heavy offense?

Trying to make a point by picking out the few outliers doesn't work.

The Fitz/Boldin Cards or Holt/Bruce Rams situations are extremely rare.

I've just pointed out that the 3 WR's we have are capable of giving us league leading receiving yards and your argument is "yeah but we could be the 2000 Rams"?