Let's talk about Simmons

[BritCard]

Let me start off by saying I like Isaiah Simmons.

What I'm less and less sure about is if I like him as a top 10 pick. There are multiple reasons to like Simmons as a player, but he can only be one of them not all of them. Let me explain why.

Simmons is a safety. That's where he played the vast majority of his snaps in college. And he's good at safety, good at being versatile and moving around when needed but in my opinion not as good as Derwin James coming out. I'd take college James over college Simmons as a safety. James also lined up at FX, Box, Edge and slot corner and was widely listed as a top 5 player in that class, but was picked 17.

Safeties very rarely go top 10. Only twice in the last 10 years with Eric Berry and Jamal Adams. As a pure safety prospect Simmons isn't near either of them.

So we move on to linebacker. Where due to his size and speed he is being projected to be an ILB. But he's only played 72 snaps at ILB. It's a huge projection to pick a guy at #8 that's only played 72 snaps at the position. It's what we did with Reddick and look how that worked out. It's not about the physical attributes, its the mental ability to process the game that comes with thousands of reps at the position. Playing ILB is not the same as playing safety.

Even worse is he projects much more as a 4-3 outside backer than a Mike. When was the last time a linebacker that wasn't a stud MILB went top 10? Probably never.

Lastly, he's an impressive physical specimen. 6'4", 238lb, 4.39 40 yard dash, 39" vertical. Those are some elite numbers. But do you want to draft a guy at #8 based purely on combine testing?

A top 10 guy should be proven elite at his position in college. I just don't think you can say that about Simmons.

I think people are being blown away by the athleticism but there are many a great athlete failed in the NFL.

If you draft Simmons it has to be as a safety and anything else is a bonus. I just don't think he's worth top 10 as a safety alone.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Simmons is a safety & He only played 72 snaps at ILB:

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More snaps at Slot Corner and More total snaps at LBer. And where the hell did you get only 72 snaps from?

Safeties rarely go in the top 10:
Wouldn't you like a Jamal Adams or an Eric Berry on your team?
Now imagine a Jamal Adams in a Bobby Wagner frame. Or an Earl Thomas in a Luke Kuechly frame. Get out of here with that mess.

Draft a guy based on combine testing:
Are you literally joking? His tape is the 2nd best in the country behind Young. He tested like Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson. ON DEFENSE.

 

[TheCardFan]

Simmons is a safety.

That's where he played the vast majority of his snaps in college.

But he's only played 72 snaps at ILB.

Your first point is wrong...he is not going to get drafted to play safety.

You are also incorrect...the vast majority of snaps were at slot corner (286), then LB (280), and then safety (218).

He played 120 snaps at ILB...why do you keep saying 72?

Show me another 6-4/238 S in the NFL that runs a 4.3 and played 2/3 of college snaps at slot corner and LB (with his production). 104 tackles, 16.5 tackles for a loss, 8 sacks, 3 int's, and 8 pass deflections as a Senior. Dude is a unicorn.

I am not saying draft him 100% but he needs to be in your top 3 for sure.

On a side note, Derwin James (also very talented) was a Pro Bowler as a rookie. You take those guys at #8 or #17.

• Just ask the Raiders if they would have rather drafted the 2nd best OT (Miller) vs Derwin James or Tremaine Edmunds.

 

[DVontel]

He’s a generational athlete, but I don’t think he’s a generational player.


However, if we do pick Simmons, I really don’t want to see this fanbase crying about why Kyler has to evade pressure more times than he should during the season when we had the prime chance to erase that.

 

[gimpy]

What is meant by best player available? Isn't that what everyone says to draft?

 

[Chopper0080]

He’s a generational athlete, but I don’t think he’s a generational player.


However, if we do pick Simmons, I really don’t want to see this fanbase crying about why Kyler has to evade pressure more times than he should during the season when we had the prime chance to erase that.

Agreed. There is a very valid argument to taking Simmons. That said, he does very little to support our franchise's QB like an offensive lineman would.

 

[AirRaid]

He’s a generational athlete, but I don’t think he’s a generational player.


However, if we do pick Simmons, I really don’t want to see this fanbase crying about why Kyler has to evade pressure more times than he should during the season when we had the prime chance to erase that.

Considering our history with drafting left tackles, I'm going to steer as far away as possible wasting a first rounder on one if Simmons is on the board.

 

[TheCardFan]

What is meant by best player available? Isn't that what everyone says to draft?

There is a very valid argument to taking Simmons. That said, he does very little to support our franchise's QB like an offensive lineman would.

BPA = the best players on the board regardless of position vs drafting for need (best example is drafting Levi Brown vs AP).

I think we are all adamantly agreeing Chopper. The challenge is picking the best player. An OT only helps our franchise QB if they are actually good and can get on the field (See DJ Humphries rookie season).

If the decision is between Luke Kuechly vs Lane Johnson. Cool...good problem to have. At this point, we probably do go with the OT to protect our franchise player.

If the decision is between Luke Kuechly and Matt Kalil (picked 5 spots ahead of him in 2012)...I go with Kuechly 11 times out of 10.

We just don't know...nobody does.

 

[BritCard]

Simmons is a safety & He only played 72 snaps at ILB:

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More snaps at Slot Corner and More total snaps at LBer. And where the hell did you get only 72 snaps from?

Safeties rarely go in the top 10:
Wouldn't you like a Jamal Adams or an Eric Berry on your team?
Now imagine a Jamal Adams in a Bobby Wagner frame. Or an Earl Thomas in a Luke Kuechly frame. Get out of here with that mess.

Draft a guy based on combine testing:
Are you literally joking? His tape is the 2nd best in the country behind Young. He tested like Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson. ON DEFENSE.

72 or 120. What difference does it make? Thats half a game.

I mentioned Jamal Adams and Eric Berry. He isn't as good a safety as either of them.

Half the fans in the NFL never heard of Simmons until the video went round of him racing Etienne.

I'm not the only one who doesn't see him at linebacker.

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Show me a splash play where he is aligned at linebacker? His best tape is some form of DB or rushing the passer (normally from safety or corner alignments but occasionally OLB).

There's a lot more to playing ILB than just being good in coverage.

 

[BritCard]

BPA = the best players on the board regardless of position vs drafting for need (best example is drafting Levi Brown vs AP).

I think we are all adamantly agreeing Chopper. The challenge is picking the best player. An OT only helps our franchise QB if they are actually good and can get on the field (See DJ Humphries rookie season).

If the decision is between Luke Kuechly vs Lane Johnson. Cool...good problem to have. At this point, we probably do go with the OT to protect our franchise player.

If the decision is between Luke Kuechly and Matt Kalil (picked 5 spots ahead of him in 2012)...I go with Kuechly 11 times out of 10.

We just don't know...nobody does.

"BPA = the best players on the board"

The thing is a teams board won't include players they don't need.

There won't be any QB's on the Cardinals board for example. Just so happens this year we have holes most places but normally BPA really means BPA at position of need.

 

[TheCardFan]

"BPA = the best players on the board"

The thing is a teams board won't include players they don't need.

There won't be any QB's on the Cardinals board for example. Just so happens this year we have holes most places but normally BPA really means BPA at position of need.

QB is the most over drafted position. They are rarely BPA...mostly need driven picks/reaches.

The issue with your last statement is the problem we are discussing. We didn't "need" a rb, so we picked Levi Brown (a need) vs AP.

Great teams don't do that. They pick the best player.

 

[AZman5103]

So let's say Isiah Simmons turns out to be Derwin James/Ryan Shazier.....why do we not want that? I agree we might not line him up at ILB 100% of the time, but he becomes a player that is always on the field, and allows us to do a lot of different things.

Maybe he ends up beating out someone for a safety spot...or plays slot corner...maybe we put him out there and say shut down the TE....he is one of the few players that can actually do all those things.

What I like about Simmons is not his combine numbers. He's big with a chance to get bigger....could end up playing in the 240's. He had proven production on a national championship caliber program. He's not a workout warrior/flash in the pan combine guy. He has been really good for Clemson and I just don't see him being a bust. We might have to be creative in using him...but if you just thing "best defensive player" he is #2 behind Chase Young. I doubt hes on the board at #8, but he sure as heck wont be on the board much longer than that.

 

[Shane]

What is meant by best player available? Isn't that what everyone says to draft?

it’s the stupidest saying ever created… Because it’s too subjective from top to bottom.

 

[GuernseyCard]

Considering our history with drafting left tackles, I'm going to steer as far away as possible wasting a first rounder on one if Simmons is on the board.

We have one now in DJ and we let a starting RT that we drafted leave, Massie.

 

[GuernseyCard]

"BPA = the best players on the board"

The thing is a teams board won't include players they don't need.

There won't be any QB's on the Cardinals board for example. Just so happens this year we have holes most places but normally BPA really means BPA at position of need.

The CARDS have a separate board - "BPA available" regardless of need.

It's the one most often used in the later rounds.

 

[football karma]

unicorn measureables + college production + high competition. hard not to like that.

Im not bothered by concerns over lack of a position. Teams are playing nickel d 60% of the snaps, and I suspect that number will go up over time.

I have no problem playing him at safety vs run oriented personnel -- and having him drop down vs passing personnel. I think it gives the D a degree of adaptability that most dont have.

 

[GuernseyCard]

unicorn measureables + college production + high competition. hard not to like that.

Im not bothered by concerns over lack of a position. Teams are playing nickel d 60% of the snaps, and I suspect that number will go up over time.

I have no problem playing him at safety vs run oriented personnel -- and having him drop down vs passing personnel. I think it gives the D a degree of adaptability that most dont have.

Drafting a bigger, faster D-Wash; a guy being compared to Urlacher and one whose talents match today's game.... is a bad, bad idea!

 

[Finito]

Let me start off by saying I like Isaiah Simmons.

What I'm less and less sure about is if I like him as a top 10 pick. There are multiple reasons to like Simmons as a player, but he can only be one of them not all of them. Let me explain why.

Simmons is a safety. That's where he played the vast majority of his snaps in college. And he's good at safety, good at being versatile and moving around when needed but in my opinion not as good as Derwin James coming out. I'd take college James over college Simmons as a safety. James also lined up at FX, Box, Edge and slot corner and was widely listed as a top 5 player in that class, but was picked 17.

Safeties very rarely go top 10. Only twice in the last 10 years with Eric Berry and Jamal Adams. As a pure safety prospect Simmons isn't near either of them.

So we move on to linebacker. Where due to his size and speed he is being projected to be an ILB. But he's only played 72 snaps at ILB. It's a huge projection to pick a guy at #8 that's only played 72 snaps at the position. It's what we did with Reddick and look how that worked out. It's not about the physical attributes, its the mental ability to process the game that comes with thousands of reps at the position. Playing ILB is not the same as playing safety.

Even worse is he projects much more as a 4-3 outside backer than a Mike. When was the last time a linebacker that wasn't a stud MILB went top 10? Probably never.

Lastly, he's an impressive physical specimen. 6'4", 238lb, 4.39 40 yard dash, 39" vertical. Those are some elite numbers. But do you want to draft a guy at #8 based purely on combine testing?

A top 10 guy should be proven elite at his position in college. I just don't think you can say that about Simmons.

I think people are being blown away by the athleticism but there are many a great athlete failed in the NFL.

If you draft Simmons it has to be as a safety and anything else is a bonus. I just don't think he's worth top 10 as a safety alone.

You don’t watch a lot of football huh

 

[Dr. Jones]

I can't believe anyone would try and crush Simmons to prop up their desire to draft an OT. We get it...... It's a big deal.

It's like if I said Nick Bosa SUCKS we must draft Kyler!!! There is literally zero evidence of it being true.

I think there are three people worth going "Eff it..... this dude is a freak of nature" in this draft. Young, Okudah, & Simmons. After that..... Just get the best player on your board who you think will be an All-Pro candidate for the next 10 years please.

 

[football karma]

I also think that Simmons being there at 8 probably means at least one OT, and maybe two, went in the top 7.

the choice then is really about Simmons vs what might be the 3rd rated OT on your board ( and maybe 18th rated player overall or something like that)

 

[BritCard]

I can't believe anyone would try and crush Simmons to prop up their desire to draft an OT. We get it...... It's a big deal.

It's like if I said Nick Bosa SUCKS we must draft Kyler!!! There is literally zero evidence of it being true.

I think there are three people worth going "Eff it..... this dude is a freak of nature" in this draft. Young, Okudah, & Simmons. After that..... Just get the best player on your board who you think will be an All-Pro candidate for the next 10 years please.

Never even crossed my mind.

I also mind it amusing how many people are defending Simmons like he was their Brother.

I said I like Simmons. I just feel he's a bit over hyped based on his insane physicals. That's all.

People don't need to start getting all pissy.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Never even crossed my mind.

I also mind it amusing how many people are defending Simmons like he was their Brother.

I said I like Simmons. I just feel he's a bit over hyped based on his insane physicals. That's all.

People don't need to start getting all pissy.

How can you defend yourself by saying "You always liked him" on one hand but then continually disparage him with inaccurate or misleading stats on the other? Obviously you are trying to advocate for what you think the teams direction should be...... you just don't need to mislead the masses to prove your point.

The problem is..... You can't prove the point with tape for any of the OT prospects, and you can't prove it with measurables unless you try and prop up Becton or Wirfs. Two tackle prospects with obvious holes in their tape and college scheme.

 

[Chopper0080]

The CARDS have a separate board - "BPA available" regardless of need.

It's the one most often used in the later rounds.

Most teams have one board, stacked vertically and horizontally. Teams use positional value, current roster composition, and need to separate in each grouping. Between this, scheme fit, and required measurables teams are able to have a draft board of 150 players and never hit the bottom of it.

 

[JeffGollin]

The CARDS have a separate board - "BPA available" regardless of need.

It's the one most often used in the later rounds.

Definition provides ample wriggle room:

BPA generally means "best player available regardless of position need."

SK has said that he modifies that definition to incorporate ""position-fit" into each player's overall rating and also says that - if a cluster of players have simlar ratings, they may choose a player who doesn't have the highest rating if he fits better.

And Coach Kingsbury recently defined BPA as "the player who can best help our team."

So go figure.

 

[Harry]

BPA = the best players on the board regardless of position vs drafting for need (best example is drafting Levi Brown vs AP).

We just don't know...nobody does.

I think this is a false dichotomy that rule changes have invalidated. Since the advent of the cap, virtually all teams look at their needs then considers the BPAs that fill those needs. Of course QB has never been part of this consideration. In this case, however, the Cards have so many needs virtually all positions could be considered need. So I think you take a player who makes the players around him better. That would be Simmons. The offense has to account for him on every play. He would add so much flexibility to the defense, he would make it tough on the offense and since that offense wouldn’t always know his intentions he would free the other players to be more aggressive. He would also have the ability to neutralize most TEs. It should be noted that the less your opponent scores the less pressure there is on your QB. This would give you more play calling flexibility on offense if you’re not always playing from behind. This guy is a game changer.

I’m okay, if Simmons is gone, with taking a top RT. However, my preference is still trading down. This is a gamble but there’s at least 6 players that should be there if the Cards drop down. All of whom would provide depth. They won’t all be gone by the Cards’ acquired pick. You can’t diminish the value of a mid to low second. This is a solid draft. That second pick would add key depth to another thin position. I wouldn’t go below 15, but the risk is minimal if you believe Humphries will work at LT. Next year’s draft has outstanding OTs. Murray at RT is adequate since KM is right handed. Murray may well get better and he’s already near average. If you ask KM, he’d rather have Lamb. That’s not hype, it’s confidence.