Lou's Views: Dbacks Long-Term Future

[KingLouieLouie]

This is my 1st installment of "Lou's Views" since nearly over a year-ago and "the tone" of this one is a lot more optimistic....What a difference a year makes!

Anyways... I'm not as researched about this year's draft than I have been in year's past..and I must admit that I havent followed/charted the Dbacks prospects progress as well (but I know the likes of AZZenny, coyoteshockeyfan, MaoTosiFanClub, Brandon_Webb, etc) could fill me in......

Obviously the two areas the Dbacks must address this draft is speed (especially in the OF) and to select a couple of "ML Ready" pitchers (those who would be able to replace Estes once he departs) who would be able to pitch at "the Big League" level at least w/in a year or 2, a 2B, and perhaps another catcher....

This is essentially my position-by-position summary and again I'm not as "researched" as I would despire/hope to be, so please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong or express any agreements/disagreements equally...

1st base:
We know that Chad Tracy isnt the "prototypical" 1B....he'll never amass more than 15-20 HRs on a consistent basis, which is of course a "necessity" at that position..... Within the organization....Kyle Nichols won't mount to anything beyond just a "role player" and I much rather have C. Jackson play the OF.... I've suggested this before and I still envision this happening..that the Dbacks will eventually convert Santos into a 1B.. Perhaps it's too late for him to make that transition..that of course for him to make the adjustment successfully might detract away from him offensively.....

2nd base:
Major long-term need..... Counsell will be gone after '06.... People may ask me....what about Hairston or Cintron? Hairston commits too many "blunders" defensively and it seems more apparent they are a result of "mental-lapses".. something that he may never overcome... He's too much of a 'pull-hitter"... if he focused on "spraying" the ball.. he'd become one of the most lethal hitters in the game.... I just don't see his offense really compensating for his defensive liabilities, so I see him being dealt over to the American League and immediately become a career DH...His offensive game would flourish since he no longer would have to concentrate on improving himself defensively and also not switching from position-to-position... Cintron seems very similar to Hairston in almost every regard that I mentioned.... Cintron could possibly be excellent trade bait if the Dbacks are still in Divisional/Wild Card contention come August... He would be packaged with some other prospects (not of "uber" calibre) for either an established middle reliever or perhaps a front-line type starter.....Kata will be what the pre '05 Counsell was...someone who plays most of the IF and OF positions... I love his "style of play", but the "Katalyzer" is just suited for the role he's in now.. I wonder.. has Upton had any experience at 2B? I believe that's where he's destined to play if the Dbacks indeed draft him....

SS:
The Dbacks signed Clayton to a one-year deal either for him to be a "stop-gap" for Cintron or hoping they'd sign Drew (assuming he'd be ready to play in the ML by '06 and I believe he will)... Drew is the SS of the future with Santos going to 1B... Jerry Gil will be a capable SS/2B utility player...

3B:
Glaus I believe signed to a 4-year contract...He's only 28 (if memory serves me correctly) and I believe D'Antona was slated for 3B at one time or perhaps even Santos learns 3B himself....

C:
I like Snyder..He's destined to become a Bob Boone type of catcher.. Nothing wrong in that whatsoever...somone who will flourish defensively at "Gold Glove" level for many years to come, but I personally prefer a Johnny Bench type of catcher myself.... Hill also seems to lack offensively at well...

RF:
Shawn Green probably at RF for another year..then finish his Dbacks career at 1B if Santos (if they actually considered that) doesn't "pan-out".... This is where C. Jackson will be slated for several years to come.....

CF:
Jose Cruz Jr... do the Dbacks sign him for a 2-year extension until Marland Williams can become an every day ML CF? I just don't see Terrero living up to all that "hype" and for him to be possibly dealt quite similar to Hairston.. It's just I personally don't see much of an upside.... Perhaps Zeringue in CF? This is where they finally require to "fill the need for speed".... A lead-off CF would be ideal.. was elusive for the Dbacks this past offseason, but glad they didnt acquire Cameron or Byrnes......

LF:
Gonzalez in LF for at least one more season until that spot will be nailed by Carlos Quentin.....Kroeger to me is just another of those "Doug DeVore" type role players......

P:
There's some prospects like Matt Chico, Ramon Tony (never call me Adriano Rosario again or else) Pena, and perhaps Lance Cormier can return back as a starter...

If Vazquez doesnt "excerize" his "opt-out clause", then he'll be the Dbacks #1 starter for at least 3-4 more years... Webb will be in a Dbacks uniform for another 4-5 years at least, Ortiz (will he stop being Rick Helling or Elmer Dessens), and Halsey will be a force to contend with for another 4-5 years...
Gosling (if he finally settles down) can replace Estes (once he leaves after this season)....

The bull-pen is extremely young.... Glad that Melvin ("knock on wood") has not ruined arms like Brenly/Kniffin seemed to enjoy/relish doing.... Even though Ligtenberg and Lopez have been "horrid" for the most part, at least they provide some "veteran" arms to help "stabilize" the BP (albeit to a lesser extent, but glad they're not compounding matters worse with pitching Valverde every single day/night), and let's hope when both Lyon and Aquino return that they "continue from where they left off"..... Unfortunately.. I never see Villarreal ever pitching in the Majors again because of Brenly/Kniffin's "penchant" to use him every single inning in '03.... Bruney must discover a breaking pitcher to help complement his fastball or else....

So, when the draft happens next week..I hope they draft the BPA.. not of need either.....

Just from doing this "analysis" I can sense how "optimistic" I am regarding the Dbacks are currently headed in..Contrary from a year ago when I thought they'd be "cellar dwellers" for at least 2 more years, but we all know that this franchise does not settle for that type of "nonsense" and will always be the classiest and most competitive organization in all of baseball.....

 

[Ryanwb]

I'm sorry and I know this is going to sound like I'm being a jerk so please take it as constructive.

I can't for the life of me figure out why you put so many words into "quotes".

 

[KingLouieLouie]

I'm sorry and I know this is going to sound like I'm being a jerk so please take it as constructive.

I can't for the life of me figure out why you put so many words into "quotes".

Just to annoy you!

Seriously...No need to apologize.. I tend to use it for cliched-remarks and the like... Just some habit that for whatever reason I picked-up for no apparent reason... thanks though for pointing that out to me.... I'll take note of that and try to get over that tendency.....

 

[green machine]

Just to annoy you!

Seriously...No need to apologize.. I tend to use it for cliched-remarks and the like... Just some habit that for whatever reason I picked-up for no apparent reason... thanks though for pointing that out to me.... I'll take note of that and try to get over that tendency.....

"don't worry, you'll improve with more seasoning"

 

[nathan]

A few comments:
1B: All signs point to Conor Jackson at 1B rather than the OF. Chad Tracy figures to be on the bench or traded by next season. I don't know why you mentioned Kyle Nichols, D'Antona (if he gets avg up) or Chris Carter (has played well this year unlike other prospects)

2B: Justin Upton could move here if drafted. Maybe even Sergio Santos. I don't think this is a major need position because adequate 2B are a dime a dozen in free agency. I do agree that Hairston is not in the plans. He has also been playing a lot of LF in Tucson. I would like to see him get another chance because he is raking now.

SS: This is Drew's spot to lose. I don't know if Jerry Gil has enough skills to stick on the roster even in a Raphael Belliard type role.

CF: I agree, Terrero is not a major league caliber CF. Zeringue has an OPS this season of .675 (4 BB in 45 games). He needs to make major adjustments before he can even be considered. Marland Williams has done better than Zeringue but is still not lighting the world on fire. If drafted, Justin Upton is probably the best option.

LF: Quentin will wind up in RF not LF, although Gammons has mentioned the possibility of him being in CF. I would like to see Scott Hairston get a shot here. It's also possible that Conor Jackson could end up here, but again, all signs point to him at 1B. Santos could also get a shot here.

P: One slight correction--Vazquez has the option to demand a trade not opt-out of his contract. The rotation has three solid pieces in Vazquez, Webb, and Halsey. The Dbacks need a few more pitching prospects to pan out. Chico and Pena have been beyond disappointing this year. Enrique Gonzalez is probably the system's pitcher of the year at this point. Garrett Mock has been somewhat hittable in Lancaster, but has decent strikeout totals. Shappi has been great in South Bend and Ohlendorf (>1 K/IP) has done okay. The bullpen needs stability and I don't think Aquino/Valverde/Bruney/Villarreal/Lyon will all be healthy and consistent at the same time. There seems to be plenty of position prospects that trading for pitching help (at least for the bullpen and maybe the rotation) is feasible.

 

[AZZenny]

Sergio Santos will never make the big club unless he totally pulls it together this season, which hasn't happened yet. He's young, but he's not really growing in skills all that much.

Conor will be 1st base, ?at second, Drew SS, Upton may eventually be 3rd, although Eric Schindewolf looks promising - D'Antona has to get it together and show some stuff this year - I think he has promise, but so far he isn't looking anything like his two amigos. Anyhow, Glaus is there for a few more years, and I'm fine with that - he has good baseball IQ, he works extremely hard, and he's a decent person - good veteran role model.

Snyder and either Miguel Montero or Phil Avlas catching - look for Koyie to be traded in a year or two. Carlos Quentin in RF, Upton or Marland Williams in CF, and hard to tell who will pan out for LF - we have some youngsters 2 or 3 years off looking interesting. Green may go to LF if he lasts longer than Gonzo, or he may be the next Matty Williams - a very expensive piece of lawn furniture in the dugout.

Vazquez maybe, Webb, Halsey, Enrique Gonzalez, AJ Shappi could be the future starting 5, or Cormier might crack it - he was a starter in the minors. Who knows how the BP will end up - we do have a bunch of potentially strong relievers if they ever get healthy (Medders, Wechsler, etc.)

 

[Brandon_Webb]

Sergio Santos will never make the big club unless he totally pulls it together this season, which hasn't happened yet. He's young, but he's not really growing in skills all that much.

Conor will be 1st base, ?at second, Drew SS, Upton may eventually be 3rd, although Eric Schindewolf looks promising - D'Antona has to get it together and show some stuff this year - I think he has promise, but so far he isn't looking anything like his two amigos. Anyhow, Glaus is there for a few more years, and I'm fine with that - he has good baseball IQ, he works extremely hard, and he's a decent person - good veteran role model.

Snyder and either Miguel Montero or Phil Avlas catching - look for Koyie to be traded in a year or two. Carlos Quentin in RF, Upton or Marland Williams in CF, and hard to tell who will pan out for LF - we have some youngsters 2 or 3 years off looking interesting. Green may go to LF if he lasts longer than Gonzo, or he may be the next Matty Williams - a very expensive piece of lawn furniture in the dugout.

Vazquez maybe, Webb, Halsey, Enrique Gonzalez, AJ Shappi could be the future starting 5, or Cormier might crack it - he was a starter in the minors. Who knows how the BP will end up - we do have a bunch of potentially strong relievers if they ever get healthy (Medders, Wechsler, etc.)

Isn't Santos only 21? It seems far to early to give up on him. Also, i think it would be a waste of Uptons speed to put him on third base. I think his speed and erratic arm will keep him out of Third.

 

[AZZenny]

Yes, Santos will be 22 on July 4. This is his 4th year, although years 1 and 3 were short, but so far he's not living up to the initial hype with bat or defense. This year has been tough so far, though he is starting to put together some good runs recently, but it has been dubbed his 'breakout' year by some scouts. I'm not giving up on him, but the harsh reality is, the attrition rate is insane and if you don't catch the team's eye in two or three years, for whatever reason, you will get displaced by a newer or more attention-getting prospect - aka, Stephen Drew in this case.

As to Upton - see the article from BA on the Draft thread - he's been playing third this spring and doing well.

 

[Stan C]

Just want to say thanks for all you folks who post who seem to know so much on the prospects. From a guy who travels, works 2 jobs, with a teenager the updates are appreciated.
Do any of you see someone who could have the base stealing potential of Womack when he first came over? That was so much fun to watch.
Also, does anyone know a site that has more individual player stats than the standard ESPN type, like avg. with RISP, etc. Also maybe even have a better definition of what some of the stats mean? I only got back into baseball in 99, after a near 40 year lay off. Lots on new stuff that was not on the back of baseball cards when I was really into it.

 

[Diamondback Jay]

1st base:
We know that Chad Tracy isnt the "prototypical" 1B....he'll never amass more than 15-20 HRs on a consistent basis, which is of course a "necessity" at that position..... Within the organization....Kyle Nichols won't mount to anything beyond just a "role player" and I much rather have C. Jackson play the OF.... I've suggested this before and I still envision this happening..that the Dbacks will eventually convert Santos into a 1B.. Perhaps it's too late for him to make that transition..that of course for him to make the adjustment successfully might detract away from him offensively.....

I disagree with you here. Derrek Lee of Chicago will never be a 40 homer guy, but he does all the little things right and is more than adequate at the position. I see Tracy as a similar kind of 1B (minus the stolen bases). If he can hit in the high 2's and crank 25-30 a year, that works for me long term.

2nd base:
Major long-term need..... Counsell will be gone after '06.... People may ask me....what about Hairston or Cintron? Hairston commits too many "blunders" defensively and it seems more apparent they are a result of "mental-lapses".. something that he may never overcome... He's too much of a 'pull-hitter"... if he focused on "spraying" the ball.. he'd become one of the most lethal hitters in the game.... I just don't see his offense really compensating for his defensive liabilities, so I see him being dealt over to the American League and immediately become a career DH...His offensive game would flourish since he no longer would have to concentrate on improving himself defensively and also not switching from position-to-position... Cintron seems very similar to Hairston in almost every regard that I mentioned.... Cintron could possibly be excellent trade bait if the Dbacks are still in Divisional/Wild Card contention come August... He would be packaged with some other prospects (not of "uber" calibre) for either an established middle reliever or perhaps a front-line type starter.....Kata will be what the pre '05 Counsell was...someone who plays most of the IF and OF positions... I love his "style of play", but the "Katalyzer" is just suited for the role he's in now.. I wonder.. has Upton had any experience at 2B? I believe that's where he's destined to play if the Dbacks indeed draft him....

SS:
The Dbacks signed Clayton to a one-year deal either for him to be a "stop-gap" for Cintron or hoping they'd sign Drew (assuming he'd be ready to play in the ML by '06 and I believe he will)... Drew is the SS of the future with Santos going to 1B... Jerry Gil will be a capable SS/2B utility player...

I see Upton and Drew manning these two positions for a while. I think Counsell and Clayton/Cintron can man the seats until they're ready.

3B:
Glaus I believe signed to a 4-year contract...He's only 28 (if memory serves me correctly) and I believe D'Antona was slated for 3B at one time or perhaps even Santos learns 3B himself....

Glaus did sign for 4.. He'll be around awhile. When healthy, he's capable of putting 40-50 a year.

Anyhow, just a few things I wanted to chime in.

 

[AZZenny]

Steven Drew started at SS for Lancaster Jethawks last night - went 2 for 3, 2 BB, 1 K, 2 runs.

We are going to have a lot of fun watching the competition for future shortstop play out over the next few years. Drew, some have projected, could easily be here by mid-to-late next year, if the translation to wooden bat and pro pitching doesn't faze him too much. Upton is likely 2 or maybe 3 years off at most.
Sergio Santos has some really big dogs on his tail now; no more time for 'development,' unless there are position changes.

Some have said Drew would be a better 2B - last night I imagined hearing "Upton to Drew to Jackson! Inning ending Double Play!"

 

[hafey2]

I don't see Tracy hitting 30 home runs, and I wouldn't be so sure about Derek Lee never being a 40 HR guy....he's sitting pretty at 17 thus far this year.

 

[coyoteshockeyfan]

This is my 1st installment of "Lou's Views" since nearly over a year-ago and "the tone" of this one is a lot more optimistic....What a difference a year makes!

Anyways... I'm not as researched about this year's draft than I have been in year's past..and I must admit that I havent followed/charted the Dbacks prospects progress as well (but I know the likes of AZZenny, coyoteshockeyfan, MaoTosiFanClub, Brandon_Webb, etc) could fill me in......

Obviously the two areas the Dbacks must address this draft is speed (especially in the OF) and to select a couple of "ML Ready" pitchers (those who would be able to replace Estes once he departs) who would be able to pitch at "the Big League" level at least w/in a year or 2, a 2B, and perhaps another catcher....

This is essentially my position-by-position summary and again I'm not as "researched" as I would despire/hope to be, so please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong or express any agreements/disagreements equally...

1st base:
We know that Chad Tracy isnt the "prototypical" 1B....he'll never amass more than 15-20 HRs on a consistent basis, which is of course a "necessity" at that position..... Within the organization....Kyle Nichols won't mount to anything beyond just a "role player" and I much rather have C. Jackson play the OF.... I've suggested this before and I still envision this happening..that the Dbacks will eventually convert Santos into a 1B.. Perhaps it's too late for him to make that transition..that of course for him to make the adjustment successfully might detract away from him offensively.....

Connor Jackson is your first baseman of the future. I think penciling him in anywhere else right now is a bit of a stretch. Here is what BA had to say about his defense...

"Q: aj from cardiff, wales asks:
you said earlier that Conor Jackson is a possible for 1st base. why do you predict the position change, considering he seems a stick on in the outfield corners?

A: Kevin Goldstein: Based on my discussions with scouts outside the organization, NOBODY like him in left field. Literally, nobody. Looking over my notes on Jackson's defense, I find the words akward, messy, and goofy. That's not good."

2nd base:
Major long-term need..... Counsell will be gone after '06.... People may ask me....what about Hairston or Cintron? Hairston commits too many "blunders" defensively and it seems more apparent they are a result of "mental-lapses".. something that he may never overcome... He's too much of a 'pull-hitter"... if he focused on "spraying" the ball.. he'd become one of the most lethal hitters in the game.... I just don't see his offense really compensating for his defensive liabilities, so I see him being dealt over to the American League and immediately become a career DH...His offensive game would flourish since he no longer would have to concentrate on improving himself defensively and also not switching from position-to-position... Cintron seems very similar to Hairston in almost every regard that I mentioned.... Cintron could possibly be excellent trade bait if the Dbacks are still in Divisional/Wild Card contention come August... He would be packaged with some other prospects (not of "uber" calibre) for either an established middle reliever or perhaps a front-line type starter.....Kata will be what the pre '05 Counsell was...someone who plays most of the IF and OF positions... I love his "style of play", but the "Katalyzer" is just suited for the role he's in now.. I wonder.. has Upton had any experience at 2B? I believe that's where he's destined to play if the Dbacks indeed draft him....

I believe that Counsell should do fine next year, and that Stephen Drew (from what Ive read, its pretty likely he will eventually move to second) has a decent chance to take this spot in 2007 now that he is in the organization.

SS:
The Dbacks signed Clayton to a one-year deal either for him to be a "stop-gap" for Cintron or hoping they'd sign Drew (assuming he'd be ready to play in the ML by '06 and I believe he will)... Drew is the SS of the future with Santos going to 1B... Jerry Gil will be a capable SS/2B utility player...

Well, Santos hasnt changed positions yet, so who knows what is going on there? He is still very young and hasnt quite adjusted to AAA ball yet, so he is still at least a few years away. This year is now or never for Cintron, if he does not take the SS spot, it is pretty likely that the organization will go to a free agent signing to fill the hole for at least 2006 and 2007.

3B:
Glaus I believe signed to a 4-year contract...He's only 28 (if memory serves me correctly) and I believe D'Antona was slated for 3B at one time or perhaps even Santos learns 3B himself....

Glaus is definately here for the long run, and scouts dont believe D'Antona can play 3rd defensively at a major league level. Ive heard Santos may be better suited for third, but it doesnt really matter right now as nobody is moving Glaus around any time soon.

C:
I like Snyder..He's destined to become a Bob Boone type of catcher.. Nothing wrong in that whatsoever...somone who will flourish defensively at "Gold Glove" level for many years to come, but I personally prefer a Johnny Bench type of catcher myself.... Hill also seems to lack offensively at well...

I agree. Snyder is probably currently the best hope at the catching position for the organization.

RF:
Shawn Green probably at RF for another year..then finish his Dbacks career at 1B if Santos (if they actually considered that) doesn't "pan-out".... This is where C. Jackson will be slated for several years to come.....

Quentin seems to be the RF of the future, but unfortunately seems to be blocked. Going by the BA scouting reports, moving Quentin to center may not be possible. I dont know if Green is even tradable at all right now though, so I suppose the three other options are: trade Quentin, trade Gonzo this offseason and let Quentin play RF in 06, or let Gonzo's contract run out at the end of the 2006 season and let Quentin play in 07. Unfortunately none of those option look as good as trading Green, which might not be possible.

CF:
Jose Cruz Jr... do the Dbacks sign him for a 2-year extension until Marland Williams can become an every day ML CF? I just don't see Terrero living up to all that "hype" and for him to be possibly dealt quite similar to Hairston.. It's just I personally don't see much of an upside.... Perhaps Zeringue in CF? This is where they finally require to "fill the need for speed".... A lead-off CF would be ideal.. was elusive for the Dbacks this past offseason, but glad they didnt acquire Cameron or Byrnes......

Cruz has really scuffled the last month and a half or so. He or Terrero will really have to show the team something to be back as a starter next year. Now that Upton is in the system, he is most likely the CF of the future.

LF:
Gonzalez in LF for at least one more season until that spot will be nailed by Carlos Quentin.....Kroeger to me is just another of those "Doug DeVore" type role players......

I guess it all depends on what route the Dbacks take (if any!) in those scenarios I wrote in the RF section above.

P:
There's some prospects like Matt Chico, Ramon Tony (never call me Adriano Rosario again or else) Pena, and perhaps Lance Cormier can return back as a starter...

If Vazquez doesnt "excerize" his "opt-out clause", then he'll be the Dbacks #1 starter for at least 3-4 more years... Webb will be in a Dbacks uniform for another 4-5 years at least, Ortiz (will he stop being Rick Helling or Elmer Dessens), and Halsey will be a force to contend with for another 4-5 years...
Gosling (if he finally settles down) can replace Estes (once he leaves after this season)....

Four of our five current starters seem to be here for the long haul, so this isnt all that important right now. My guess is Estes will be replaced for next year at least with a free agent aquisition, although both Gosling and E. Gonzalez are looking pretty good in their Tucson starts right now.

The bull-pen is extremely young.... Glad that Melvin ("knock on wood") has not ruined arms like Brenly/Kniffin seemed to enjoy/relish doing.... Even though Ligtenberg and Lopez have been "horrid" for the most part, at least they provide some "veteran" arms to help "stabilize" the BP (albeit to a lesser extent, but glad they're not compounding matters worse with pitching Valverde every single day/night), and let's hope when both Lyon and Aquino return that they "continue from where they left off"..... Unfortunately.. I never see Villarreal ever pitching in the Majors again because of Brenly/Kniffin's "penchant" to use him every single inning in '03.... Bruney must discover a breaking pitcher to help complement his fastball or else....

I agree with pretty much your entire analysis here. The bullpen is indeed very young and very talented, but unfortunately also very hurt in many cases. Only time will sort out who is able to stick and who goes. My guess would be Lyon, Aquino, Valverde, Cormier, Herges, and two free agents (including one lefty) will be the seven man pen next year, but health will be a big factor on that.

 

[AZZenny]

About 2 years or so down the road, likely see catcher Miguel Montero, who makes the organization's eyes light up, come up to compete with Snyder for catcher of the future. I think if Hairston, just called up again, shows good enough defense and his bat stays hot, he'll be in our OF rather than Terrero or Cruz next year, and possibly ahead of Quentin for the short run.

Here's a serious consideration: next year, we will have to massively revamp our 40-man roster. I believe Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, and several others will have to be protected then. There will also be 2-3 newer arms they'll want to protect.
That will be a come-to-Jesus weeding out for guys who are not yet producing up to expectations - Gosling, Bruney, Villareal, Kata, Kroeger, Gil, and guys like Santos who either have to be added to it or risk being nabbed.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

I disagree with you here. Derrek Lee of Chicago will never be a 40 homer guy, but he does all the little things right and is more than adequate at the position. I see Tracy as a similar kind of 1B (minus the stolen bases). If he can hit in the high 2's and crank 25-30 a year, that works for me long term.

Derrek Lee is also a GG caliber 1B who has hit over 20 HRs six years in a row and over thirty the past two. Not only is Tracy's defense mediocre, but I doubt he ever has that many quality seasons hitting over 25 bombs even playing in BOB. Comparing Derrek Lee and Chad Tracy is like comparing George Brett to Wally Joyner, they're simply not in the same class.

And since Conor's defense is supposedly a concern, there's really no other option than putting him at 1B. I think Upton will play CF because it's the quicket route to the bigs and Drew will get a shot at SS but play 2B if he can't handle the defense.

 

[coyoteshockeyfan]

About 2 years or so down the road, likely see catcher Miguel Montero, who makes the organization's eyes light up, come up to compete with Snyder for catcher of the future. I think if Hairston, just called up again, shows good enough defense and his bat stays hot, he'll be in our OF rather than Terrero or Cruz next year, and possibly ahead of Quentin for the short run.

Here's a serious consideration: next year, we will have to massively revamp our 40-man roster. I believe Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, and several others will have to be protected then. There will also be 2-3 newer arms they'll want to protect.
That will be a come-to-Jesus weeding out for guys who are not yet producing up to expectations - Gosling, Bruney, Villareal, Kata, Kroeger, Gil, and guys like Santos who either have to be added to it or risk being nabbed.

Montero, that is a good name to bring up. He is still only in Class A ball, but he could be the dback prospect who's stock has risen the most this year.

 

[KingLouieLouie]

Well.. I guess it's about time that I responded back to everyone's rebuttals to my initial post......

I believe it will be easier to address everyone's comments position-by-position so there wouldnt be any difficulty in reading this post.... Also, with the draft happening and everything sinking in as a result of it, that would enable me to reflect on everything more accurately....

1B:
I would have to add some more to go along with the other responses to the Tracy-Derrek Lee comparison....

Lee exhibited power numbers for even most of his Minor League career when he had seasons of 34 and 23 HRs.... Whereas Tracy highest total was 10.... When Lee doesn't go for the long-ball, he compensates that with his tremendous speed (has had as high as 21 SBs in a single season).... Tracy could be more effective if he tried to spray the ball to all fields which might help him produce/generate HRs with more regularity, but he tends to pull the ball constantly and as a result Ks or bounces into too many double-plays...

I'm still in favor of Santos being converted, but I wont be completely shocked if the Dbacks decide to use Glaus exclusively at 1B toward the end of his contract (especially if he experiences any shoulder/arm related problems), but they might pursue a FA w/in the next couple of years to fill the void there...

The reason why I included Nichols is that I admitted that I hadnt followed the Dbacks farm-system as closely as I so desired, but I remember him advancing thru the ranks quickly.... Perhaps Chris Carter could be a long-term solution or the Dbacks 9th round pick Joshua Ford (who they compared to Jason Varitek offensively)... So, we'll keep track of both Carter and Ford over the next couple of years to chart their development....

2B & SS:

I'll group these together... I guess the following is because I grew-up being spoiled while watching the long-standing double-play combo of Whitaker/Trammell (both should be inducted into the HOF together).....More like blessed.... In fact.. they both made their ML debut during the same game in '77..... This is what I envision Upton/Drew tandem being like (but still undecided who would play which, but I guess Upton was promised SS when he was drafted).... Cubs fans may remember Sandberg/Dunston, then there was Soriano/Jeter, and just so many other double play combinations who helped stabilize the IF for years and put up some impressive offensive stats...

3B:
Glaus of course, but if they in fact ever considered placing him at 1B, then Santos or D'Antona manning that position for several years...

C:
The Dbacks seemed to address this with drafting quite a few catchers, however, I must admit that I didnt know about Montero, so I guess we're all follow/keep track of him as well....

OF:
I still would love

Quentin-RF, either Williams or Zenrique-CF/Jackson-LF

I just want someone with blazing spit to hit lead-off for several years to come, so perhaps either Upton or Williams fill fill that need (if Williams ever learns how to improve his OPS).....

Pitching:
I along with everyone must rave about Rizzo and Co. targetting all those young college arms... Wow... some with blazing fastballs and also possess some pitches to immediately become the Dbacks closer.......

Why dont I include Cintron and Hairston into the long-term plans?

I just see both being traded some time before this year is over to help salvage the depleted relief corp.... Cintron just struggles too much defensively to warrant a spot to play every day..True. he's an impressive hitter when he's ontop of his game, but all those mental-lapses.. how he tends to be non-chalant... Most of that applies to Hairston as well.... Might as well get something in quality in return for both before its too late... I dont think the Dbacks would have put emphasis on the middle IF during the past cpl drafts if they had the slighest bit of confidence in those 2...... Terrero also fits into that category as well...

Personally to me.. they're all beyond being prospects now....they havent lived up to their potential and perhaps they need a change of scenery in order to do so..... But it's just that they dont have much upside really.. I hope I'm wrong regarding those 3, but it seems with the emergence of some of the younger prospects, those 3 players days in a Dbacks uniform will be numbered even before we all know it.....

 

[AZZenny]

Conor will be at first - there were too many defensive questions with him in the OF, and if they were going to persist in using him there against all advice, that's where he'd be playing this year, I am sure. (btw - Kyle Nichols isn't even with our club anymore. There have been a bunch of little maneuvers mostly related to the 40-man roster that snuck by me, and that's one. He's with the Chattanooga Lookouts, and he's struggling.)

Glaus is still fairly young - he may finish here at 3rd. I agree with you on Terrero and Cintron, but I will put Santos in 'the trade bait photo' as well. He simply has to make himself extremely visible this year to make the 40 man roster next year, because we have too many up and coming candidates for almost every spot who are doing as well or better, and much of the excellent draft class of 2003, and any HS picks from from 2002, are coming due for protect or risk Rule 5.

Just to broaden the mix you are looking at a bit - names to keep in mind besides Montero (who plays 1B as well as Catcher and like Conor/Carlos has been a stud from the start) - Precision pitcher AJ "Promote Me" Shappi, also Mock and Ohlendorf, plus Enrique Gonzalez. We'll have to see how Shappi does in more of a batter's park before I annoint him, but since he's a precision control pitcher, he may do fine - so far he's really impressing me, much the way I was taken with Cormier right away.

I can't believe how nicely Daigle is doing in relief, btw. He's not ready, but I bet he'll be relieving in Tucson within a month. We actually have about 4-5 potential relievers who look quite good, but pretty much every single one is either still strengthening post-surgery, or new to relieving, etc.

D'Antona, whom I liked, isn't exactly strutting his stuff - his plate discipline is improving a lot - alas, his glove still is pretty poor, and his power and average are down for now. He also will have to make a case for the roster in the off-season. Eric Schindewolf looks interesting at third or perhaps 2nd, but keep an ear out for Augie Murillo, currently in Low A ball. (BA loves him.) Plate discipline, power, average, and good glove, so far; he's played 3B mainly. Also I think Steve Garrabrants in Lancaster, though they've started using him in the OF. Cesar Nicholas, drafted last year and signed fairly late, is also IF, and he looks promising - time will tell. Dan Uggla and Adam Haley also have good numbers overall, and have adjusted at every level, though they are still pretty rough and at least a couple years off. Haley looks to me to have serious potential maybe at 2nd - he's turned some really super defensive plays.

Andy Green is probably our future Craig Counsell - he gets on base, he makes key hits and defensive plays, he is consistent year after year, he can play 1B-2B and can do SS and 3B or OF in a pinch, and he is, according to the coaches, extremely aware of everything going on, has very good baseball sense, and no illusions that he's an everyday starter.

Chris Carter is pretty much a new and updated Cust/Durazo, and most likely will be trade bait as a DH. Gloves and feet of lead was the draft report, but the bat is gold.

I suspect Upton may decide on CF to get up here faster, he's even hinted as much, and he's apparently played well at 3B (better suited for his arm strength) but if he stays at SS, I agree Drew is likely moved to 2nd. I think Marland Williams will get a cup of coffee in CF, maybe, due to his speed, and Noochie Varner (somebody besides me here was hyping him last year, I think) really does look like a very strong OF prospect. Besides, is that a great baseball name, or what?

Really, guys, this is considered a pretty good farm system, and Rizzo just made it VERY good.

 

[KingLouieLouie]

Thanks as always for updating and providing everyone with some excellent analysis, AZZenny......

I was the one who actually was hyping Varner last year since I remember from when he was in the Tigers organization...Also... I would refer to him as to how the Dbacks got just more than Sexson and Nance in the trade with the Brewers...

Whatever happened to Victor Hall? I had totally forgotten about him until I was just glancing at some of my posts from last year... I was also hyping Reggie Abercrombie, but we all know he doesnt have the skills to make it in the ML and since has left the Dbacks organization.... Also there was also Michael Goss who the Dbacks acquired in the Schilling trade that seemed to be performing decently last year.....

Again...I must follow the Dbacks farm system like I did in year's past... just will be interesting to see how everything materializes as all the prospects progress through all levels...

I only differ from you though on Santos.. I believe he's still relatively young and still has much of an upside.... I guess people expect him to excel like Quentin and Jackson, but perhaps he's a late bloomer......

Hairston... aghhhhh.... I attended lastnight's game and when he was announced as a pinch-hitter in the 9th...I immediately shouted.. please dont swing at the first pitch..and sure enough he obviously did....People were still talking about that AB as I was leaving the BOB...because he didnt even manage to advance the runners... Of course.. Gonzo did the same when it appeared the Dbacks had finally begun to solve Howell... in fact.. a few ABs earlier Howell had walked Halsey, but for whatever reason Gonzo lacked patience... Anyways... sorry for digressing there......

Edit: Andy Green.. I enjoyed watching him last year.. he seemed to be a hard-nosed player who would sacrifice his all and come-up with some clutch hits... that's also how I feel about Kata, but it seems he's never regained his '03 form and might never will....

It's hilarious that most of the players you mentioned are those I distinctly remember researching as they were selected last year.. just glad to see that Mike Rizzo's successful track record has continued and it seemed he might have just as great or even better draft class this year....

 

[AZZenny]

Btw - I bow to your superior insight - with DeVore gone and Hairston up, suddenly Tucson is not clogged, but instead short-handed, in the OF - so Conor is back in LF for the time being - they even had Kata playing a little OF, I believe.
Unfortunate that they can't find any pitching for the Sidewinders.

 

[WildBB]

Btw - I bow to your superior insight - with DeVore gone and Hairston up, suddenly Tucson is not clogged, but instead short-handed, in the OF - so Conor is back in LF for the time being - they even had Kata playing a little OF, I believe.
Unfortunate that they can't find any pitching for the Sidewinders.

Is Gossling now a bust?

 

[AZZenny]

Bust is a bit strong. He's still unreliable - tends to put s run of good games together and then a string of poor ones. ERA is 5.33, WHIP is 1.74 - not especially good. It's not just him - right now Edgar Gonzalez is their best starter by far! The combined starters' ERA is just a bit under 5.00. Horrifying though it be, at the moment one of their best relief pitchers is Lightenberg - of course, this IS triple-A batters he's facing, but TEP is a very batter-friendly park; the whole Pacific Coast League tends to be.

Now move down to (damn, keep wanting to say El Paso!) To Tennessee, Enrique Gonzalez has a 3.69 ERA, with a 1.21 WHIP - and a K for every hit. Dustin Nippert, finally just now coming back fully from surgery and 4 games under his belt, has a 1.95 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP in 27.2 innings, and a K for every H. (This kid, and Carlos Quentin, are what that ******** Gammons wanted us to trade for Miggy and Schoenweiss!) We also have a closer there, this Daigle kid with a 3.06 ERA, a mediocre WHIP at 1.59 but that includes two pretty poor games he started before becoming just a reliever. He's been getting 2 Ks for every BB. And Mike Schultz has a 2.65 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, a K plus per inning as a reliever.

In Lancaster, also a REAL batter's park/league, Garrett Mock has 4.01 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 5K for every walk. Chad Scarbery just came back from his steroid suspension, so who knows what his numbers will come down to in time, but for now, ERA 4.06, unpromising WHIP 1.56 - lot of walks. J. Castellanos 4.42 ERA, 1.43 WHIP tends to give up long balls. Reliever Dustin Glant has a 3.97 ERA, a very nice 1.17 WHIP, with 9K for every walk. (I'm not getting that high an ERA with the rest of his numbers. He must have had a couple stinkers.)Billy Biggs and Alex Cremidan are distantly in the reliever picture there.

SouthBend is one of the few parks almost neutral for batters/ pitchers. AJ Shappi is our best - 2.79 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 4K per walk. Russ Ohlendorf has a 4.54 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, but he also has 4K per walk, so there's promise. He's been inconsistent. Relievers - mind you, when they get to Lancaster and batter heaven, it'll be a truer test - J. Perrault has a 2.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, H. Guerrero 2.05 and 1.29, and Vasquez, Elliott, and Stein are vaguely in the photo.

Not super strong, is it? Let's hope this year's draft picks develop into a couple pro pitchers.