Making a play - The importance of....

[RugbyMuffin]

I am talking philosophically today.

Does completion percentage matter if your QB hits every 3rd down play and moves the chains ?

Does the amount of drops/catches made matter if the WR makes clutch catches to extend drives, or score points ?

Do yards against the defense matter if they don't score ?

Rob Houlser looked good, but he drops the most important pass he gets his hands on.

Skelton looks average but leads the team to a score.

The offensive line kills one QB, but comes back to drive for a TD.

Stats are important, but they are also un-important.

I dunno. The Cardinals have such a weird way of playing football, and competing. They are a competitive football team, IMO, but in a very weird way. They look like they should be getting killed, but the next thing you know it is the 4th quarter and they have a chance to win.

 

[Duckjake]

I'll take a guy who moves the chains and wins football games over a guy who puts up good stats but goes 3 and out and his team loses.

K9 and I talk all the time about having play makers on the team. Guys that do sort of what you are talking about. Dansby was a guy like that. That's why I liked him so much.

But those guys have to have some consistency. A guy who sucks on 1st and 2nd down and shines on third or is poor in practice but shows up on game day will be ditched by almost all coaches unless he has HOF results on the good plays.

 

[InfiniteRed]

I am talking philosophically today.

Does completion percentage matter if your QB hits every 3rd down play and moves the chains ?
I'd say no, if he goes for a big play on first and second down but it is incomplete, then gets his 10 yards on 3rd down, they are still moving forward in a way where we can score points.

Does the amount of drops/catches made matter if the WR makes clutch catches to extend drives, or score points?
Yes, I believe WRs are meant to catch what they are supposed to catch, being clutch is a bonus, but hopefully it won't be a clutch situation if you did your job before.

Do yards against the defense matter if they don't score ?
Nope not even slightly.

Rob Houlser looked good, but he drops the most important pass he gets his hands on.
He gets open nicely but he doesn't catch it, which of course means almost nothing, maybe a little mental prod to the opposing defense but that is all. Needs to work on it, though sometimes it is QB error.

Skelton looks average but leads the team to a score.
It's a mystery, as long as he wins, no one should have a problem. Consistency would be greatly appreciated.

The offensive line kills one QB, but comes back to drive for a TD.
Can't allow the people you are supposed to protect get hurt unfortunately, consistency is necessary.

My 2 cents.

I agree the Cardinals win in somewhat weird ways, but that comes with inconsistency, which comes with inexperienced QBs. When we win, we often pull it from somewhere magical, hah.

 

[Russ Smith]

I am talking philosophically today.

Does completion percentage matter if your QB hits every 3rd down play and moves the chains ?

Does the amount of drops/catches made matter if the WR makes clutch catches to extend drives, or score points ?

Do yards against the defense matter if they don't score ?

Rob Houlser looked good, but he drops the most important pass he gets his hands on.

Skelton looks average but leads the team to a score.

The offensive line kills one QB, but comes back to drive for a TD.

Stats are important, but they are also un-important.

I dunno. The Cardinals have such a weird way of playing football, and competing. They are a competitive football team, IMO, but in a very weird way. They look like they should be getting killed, but the next thing you know it is the 4th quarter and they have a chance to win.

This is why i said in the other thread I wish someone would keep a yards per play stat for QB's.

For example I took heat for years on this board commenting on how Plummer and Centers numbers were misleading. Plummer would get us to 3rd and 9 and then complete an 8 yard pass to Centers and we would punt. So Centers led the league in 3rd down catches, Plummers' 3rd down numbers were actually fairly good and people kept arguing with me he wasn't the problem and Centers was superstar on another team. When I kept saying Larry is a terrific guy and plays hard but he only catches a ton of balls here because we're so bad we're always in 3rd and long.

Kolb's stats are better but there's a misleading element to it because when he loses 12 yards on 2nd down, none of the stats accurately reflect that. Passer rating doesn't take into account sacks, hell it doesn't even count fumbles. Passer rating doesn't care if you complete an 11 yard pass on 3rd and 12 and then punt. ESPN tried to address with QBR but so far I'm not impressed with their stat. I think it's in need of some tweaking and I think I read they were doing that.

They have the right idea IMHO, the yards per play aspect of it is important and you have to factor in performance relative to first downs. 11 yard passes on 3rd and 12 only help your field position a bit on the punt, they don't help you score on THAT possession.

QBR tried too hard to account for everything and it's not clear to me they got it right.

I should add defensive yards is usually fairly accurate in that bad defenses rarely give up few yards and great defenses rarely give up a lot of yards. bend don't break works to a degree. Defenses that give up lots of yards but not necessarily points sound great, but they still lead to losing the field position battle which often decides games. Of course the most telling stat there is more often than not is turnovers. tell me before the game who turns it over more, I'll tell you who will win and be pretty good at it. If Skelton can cut his turnovers I think the Cards can win games with this defense and offensive talent. It's actually surprising how many games we won with him last year given his turnovers.

 

[Russ Smith]

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/22/analyzing-espns-total-quarterback-rating/


Good article that kind of explains what I'm getting at with yards per play except this guy is still only charting pass plays not counting runs. It's my belief that QB play is a big factor in running games too. It's why the Colts were able for years to stick anybody back there and get good rushing production, everyone was so concerned about Peyton Manning, the run game worked.

 

[JeffGollin]

Making plays trumps stats, but there's nothing wrong with doing a lot of little things right so that you earn a few "wins by a thousand cuts."

Why make winning more difficult than it already is?