Market Watch - What Price Boris?

[George O'Brien]

In another thread, http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/showthread.php?t=76194&page=4 I posted a report that the Sonics and Wilcox are close to finalizing 3 year $21 million deal. They report that Wilcox asked for $24 million over three while the Sonics were only offering $19 million over three.

IMHO, Wilcox is a much better prospect that Nene, even if Nene was healthy, which he isn't. If Nene defines the market, then Diaw is worth $11 million a year. However, if Wilcox defines the market, Diaw is worth more like $8 million a year.

There is still no reported progress on the negotiations between Gooden and the Cavs. Ely of the Bobcats has had no progress in their negotiations and is expected to do the one year deal to become an unrestricted free agent.

There are still members of the draft class of 2003 who have not signed extensions including Josh Howard and Kirk Hinrich.

My feeling is that the Nene deal was anomoly. Boris is better than Nene, Wilcox, and Gooden - but not for every team. "What was once considered his biggest weakness has now become his biggest strength playing for one of the most innovative coaches and systems in the NBA under Mike D’Antoni and the Phoenix Suns. Diaw is essentially a player without a position, featuring the passing and ball-handling skills of a guard, the length and size of a forward, and the toughness and basketball IQ to even defend Centers like Yao Ming if asked to. It works for the Suns, but there are many more conservative coaches who wouldn’t quite know how to utilize him. "
http://www.draftexpress.com/viewarticle.php?a=1432

Trying to determine the market for someone like Boris is especially difficult. I would not expect any progress until October.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Watch what happens if we let him play out the year. After having a big summer for his french national team and then poyentially coming back and being ther go-to-player next year (if Amare struggles) and he will pull in 70 million contract from somebody. And the Suns HAVE to match if that happens.

That draftexpress article you reference only validated this for me. He is the perfect player for D'Antoni's system (IMO the difference in us being a better team without JJ last year was primarily due to having Boris as a second playmaker for others with the ball. We would have been much better equipped to play without Nash this year opposed to two years ago.) and he is also what Riley was talking about when he spoke to a league one day where all five players are versatile 6-10 players all over the floor with multiple skills. I see Diaw as one of the players of the future - mixing European knowledge of the game and american scoring ability and creativity.

Needless to say i think he is a hell of a player....

 

[CaptainInsano]

Im wondering about certain things in this circumstance. First, why not offer him a max of 5 years 55 million and if he refuses let him play out the rest of the season.

Then you next hope that some team or something happends that he doesn't command 70 million.

Lastly with so many teams at or over the cap how many of them would be willing to do a 70 million contract?

 

[George O'Brien]

There is a very good reason why to not offer $55 million over five - a lot of it will be subject to luxury tax. At the same time, only Orlando, Charlotte, and Atlanta are will be under the cap more than the MLE next year.

Will any of these teams offer a deal worth more than $11 million per year for Boris? As it is, every year there is one of two really hot players, but overall free agency is driven by cap space and "need".

Take Orlando. They already have a pretty good PF in Dwight Howard and are very high on Darko as their center of the future. At the same time, Grant Hill is coming off contract. You'd think their first priority would be a major scoring option SF rather than a guy who can play everywhere but is not yet a great shooter. Would they like him? Sure, but $11 million worth?

Charlotte has a guy named Okafor who is expected to return to health and there's no evidence they are going to become a running team. For a team that already has Melvin Ely and Sean May, it is hard to see them spending $11 on a team with different needs.

Don't get me wrong, I want the Suns to sign Boris. I just don't think there is a need to pay him Nene type money and add to their already serious luxury tax problems.

 

[CaptainInsano]

Yeah, thats what I was thinking. I was actually putting 55 million not as the least but around the highest we should offer him.

And this is besides next years draft, how many teams want to have cap or the ability to clear cap when they need to sign those guys to contracts later on. What are the other teams going to do, get a good pick in the draft and eventually sign for a good price OR offer boris 70 million..

 

[Mainstreet]

There is a very good reason why to not offer $55 million over five - a lot of it will be subject to luxury tax. At the same time, only Orlando, Charlotte, and Atlanta are will be under the cap more than the MLE next year.

George, I do not believe you gamble with a sure thing and I believe Diaw is close to a sure thing. The Suns gambled with JJ and we saw the outcome. And I think Diaw has a higher upside, especially with the Suns, since he can play the 4/5. The last game of the playoffs he scored like 30 points and had close to 10 boards as I recall. I do not think this was an aberation as Diaw was extremely consistent in the playoffs. IMO, if the Suns gamble with Diaw, some team will figure out a way to give him a JJ type contract which the Suns can't or will not match.

As you are fully aware, Amare and KT are coming off injuries. The Suns need to extend Diaw and worry about how to deal with the LT afterwards... at least if they are serious about a Championship and their future. IMO, Diaw can only cost the Suns more, not less, if he is not extended.

 

[George O'Brien]

I don't think pointing out to a player what the market realities are is gambling. It is simply sound negotiation strategy.

Let's face it, it is always a gamble. Signing a guy to a big contract is gamble. He might have to have microfracture surgery a couple of months later. Signing a guy like Shawn Marion to a big contract was not a "bad" move since he was twice selected to the All Star team. But the financial impact has been pretty high and most people agree they could have signed him for less if they had waited.

There is nothing wrong with waiting and matching. When Elton Brand was a free agent, he got an $82 million over six year offer from the Heat which the Clippers matched. That was only $3 million more than Marion got for the same length of time.

Now that the Clippers have decided to be a real basketball team, rather than a cash machine for Don Sterling, the number of above the MLE bids have dropped dramatically. Teams have all but given up on the idea of making offers that they can be sure won't be matched because it means grossly overpaying.

I have no doubt that the Suns will come up with an offer that will be strong enough Boris is not going to risk an uncertain RFA market next year. I just don't think the Suns should base their planning on fears of another JJ situation happening.

 

[Errntknght]

I wish we knew what the Suns are offering. If its 5/50 and Boris' camp is saying they're a long ways apart then there's serious trouble. I don't see how the Suns could offer Leandro 5/33 (the latest figure I've heard) and Boris only 5/40 - that is not in line with their relative value at all. That seems to leave 5/45 as the most likely amount.

It could be that Boris' agent wants to delay until after the World Championships because an outstanding performance by Diaw on that stage would boost his market value. Of course, a weak performance could hurt some... maybe we'll get lucky and TP won't ever throw Boris the ball...

 

[George O'Brien]

I can't see how the World Championships will change things that much. I agree that Boris is likely to get more than $40 over five, which is per year what Wilcox was originally asking for.

 

[Mainstreet]

Boris for 5/40 would be best case scenario.
Boris for 5/45 would be fair.
Boris for 5/50 still not out of sight for a 4/5.
Boris for 5/55 would be high market (I would still do it).
Boris for 5/60 + is probably what RFA will bring.

I'm with Errntknght about the 5/45 amount. IMO, get it done already, if this is near the extension price.

 

[George O'Brien]

I'm still trying to understand the basis for the high numbers. The $40 to $45 range is pretty good money. When you jump into the $50 to $55 range, there needs to be a real, despirate bidder whose style fits what Boris does. I don't see one.

There are years when it would be easy for a play of Diaw's caliber to get $10 million. I'm still amazed that Kenyon Martin got $91 million over seven two years ago. Clearly the Nuggets were paying for his "upside" which did not happen. At the same time, there are years when top players are signed for very reasonable amounts.

BTW, one curious trend has been for shorter deals than in the past. It is interesting to review contracts made just a few years ago to see how many were done for seven years. This year there aren't even that many re-signs and and sign & trades for six with some notables doing deals for three years.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I'm still trying to understand the basis for the high numbers. The $40 to $45 range is pretty good money. When you jump into the $50 to $55 range, there needs to be a real, despirate bidder whose style fits what Boris does. I don't see one.

Just look at this year's RFA's. Very few actually are lost. It doesn't happen with the really big ones, because matching is a no brainer. And it doesn't usually happen with the lower end one's because teams have to fill out their benches with low salaried players.

But then there is a player like Boris (or like JJ was). He's the type of player where its possible to offer him a large enough deal, that his team won't match. But if you are going to go after him, you have to overpay. And it helps to have a team that has alot of high paid players already. You've got to offer him enough so that his present team thinks his contract will make him hard to trade.

You've got to be a desperate team, with money burning a hole in your pocket to do this (like Atlanta was last year).

BTW, its too early to really know who will have money.

I could see Bryan Colangelo trying to sign him.

 

[cly2tw]

My feeling is that the Nene deal was anomoly. Boris is better than Nene, Wilcox, and Gooden - but not for every team. "What was once considered his biggest weakness has now become his biggest strength playing for one of the most innovative coaches and systems in the NBA under Mike D’Antoni and the Phoenix Suns. Diaw is essentially a player without a position, featuring the passing and ball-handling skills of a guard, the length and size of a forward, and the toughness and basketball IQ to even defend Centers like Yao Ming if asked to. It works for the Suns, but there are many more conservative coaches who wouldn’t quite know how to utilize him. "
http://www.draftexpress.com/viewarticle.php?a=1432

Trying to determine the market for someone like Boris is especially difficult. I would not expect any progress until October.

The market price for any good is most often determined by the second highest bidder. So, George has made a case that it's unlikely that the second-highest bidder in next year's market will make too high of an offer for Boris' service, due to cap or need.

However, Boris might find it unfair that he is not paid what he is worth to the Suns. So, the obvious solution is to insert a lot of incentives to a reasonable contract like 5/47 extension (Prince's from last year). Say, with a championship, Boris get's 1mil bonus in addition to the regular team-wide ones. He gets a raise of 15% if he gets selected into All-NBA teams (Tim Hardaway had similar incentives back with the Heats). Or, if he strongly believes he'd become a franchise caliber player worthy a max to most teams, let's have a 3/24 contract a bit above Wilcox's. The Suns will definitely pay the market price if needed, given the fact Boris is best fit with us over all teams, why should we worry that he'd go to other teams for less money in 4 years?

 

[George O'Brien]

The most common gimmick is to front load the contract. This used to be very successful when stealing guys from the Clippers, but I'm not sure it is enough to keep a team that really wants to keep a guy from matching.

At some point the reason to pay more than absolutely necessary is to avoid having a seriously unhappy player. Even in the JJ deal, it is not clear Sarver would have done the trade if he wasn't convinced JJ really wanted to leave. Team chemistry is awfully important, so keeping guys who are despirately unhappy is not a great idea. This is why so many RFA moves are sign and trade, even if the player is like Jared Jeffries and not that horribly overpaid.

The Suns need Diaw to be happy. I think finding a number that will keep him happy is going to a lot more significant than the remote threat of a JJ type bidding war.