Maybe some good Comp Pick News?

[joeshmo]

Actually it will be very good comp picks news.

That Adam guy who projects the comp picks for various other message boards. Last year he was correct on 25 out of 32, and off by one round for another 4 out of the 32. He is about as accurate as they come.

Anyways he thinks we will get a 3rd rounder for losing Pace or a 4th minimum. I had incorrectly assumed that Bryan Robinson and St. Pierre counted as a qualifing free agent, thus making only Laboy and Haggans count as signed qualifing free agents. BJ, Pace, and Vincent counted as lost qualifing free agents. So we lost more qualifing free agents then we sign so we get put into the comp pick process. Haggans and Laboy pretty much cancel out Vincent and BJ in terms of contract and games started, which leaves Pace to get comp for and he started every game and got a big contract so we should be getting a 3rd rounder, 4th at minimum.

http://forums.kffl.com/showthread.php?t=247418

Lets hope this Adam guy continues his streak of accuracy.

Also we will know for sure at the NFL meetings which is March 22-25.

Update (by jf-08) : Adam's info changed from a 3rd / 4th to a 7th round pick

 

[jaguarpaw81]

Along with the news of Sundquist coming aboard this is turning out to be a fantastic day. Thanks joe.

 

[WildBB]

Good news. If we land an extra third we could address the C and TE positions at a good time in the draft.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

This 3rd or 4th round pick would come at the very end of the round, right?

Can we trade a compensatory pick?

 

[rode kardinaal]

I’m fairly confident that the players I consider a little “above the bubble” this year (Terry Cousin, Keydrick Vincent and Danny Clark) will qualify for the equation, and that the players I consider slightly “below the bubble” (Alex Stepanovich and Aaron Glenn), will not qualify.

........


If Keydrick Vincent does not qualify as a player lost by Arizona, the Cardinals would not get a third-round comp pick for Calvin Pace, and Cleveland would get a non-compensatory pick to fill out the draft order.

Let's hope he's right. Would be so sweet to get another 3rd rounder.

 

[joeshmo]

This 3rd or 4th round pick would come at the very end of the round, right?

Can we trade a compensatory pick?

Yes

No

 

[Garthshort]

I thought we signed more FA's than we lost, and thus would not receive any comp picks. Am I wrong?

 

[DoTheDew]

I thought we signed more FA's than we lost, and thus would not receive any comp picks. Am I wrong?

Not all FAs count as qualifying FA's towards comp picks. BSP and Bryan Robinson apparently didn't.

 

[CardsFan88]

I fully believe receiving compensatory picks on a consistent basis can be a key part to having a consistently good team. When you look around many of the best teams lose marginal players to huge contracts of 20-40 million (considering their talent) on what seems like a yearly basis.

They then receive a 3rd, or a couple of 4th, maybe even a 5th. But overall they consistently have extra picks, and with a 3-5th you have a pretty good shot at finding someone that can develop into a longtime starter (or at least until their rookie contract is up).

I'm having trouble finding data, but in the past couple of years, teams like the Patriots and Steelers usually have been awarded multiple picks. I did however find the following article which pretty much does my work for me. It's from 2007, but it's really good stuff.

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.p...nsatory_pick_system_screws_the_weakest_teams/

ROFL he also talks about (briefly) the negative impact of consistently picking high. Another one of my (well I guess his) thoughts.

Also the compensatory picks have another advantage, trading. If you have two 3rds, or an extra pick in any round, it becomes much easier to trade up in a round. Hell sometimes if you don't feel like there will be anyone you want given the value of the pick, you might be able to find someone who will trade you a future draft pick for the extra one you have. (or you use your 3rd round compensatory and trade your normal 3rd). It gives you options.


Also pulled the following from NFL draft wiki, interesting I never knew this. (it's about if there aren't enough compensatory picks given by players switching teams)

"If fewer than 32 such picks are awarded, the remaining picks are awarded in the order in which teams would pick in a hypothetical eighth round of the draft (These are known as "supplemental compensatory selections")."

We want compensatory picks, and they are part of a key to maintaining a good roster. Therefore although I wanted to keep A. Smith, I'm perfectly fine with letting him go. (that and CC behind him)

 

[Urubu Rei]

There's an observation in the post, that maybe the Vincent signing wouldn't be elegible, and then we wouldn'treceive a high pick.

 

[Cards Czar]

I posted the following to Adam for clarification.

Adam thanks for doing all of this for the Comp picks.
I have 1 question on the Cardinals picks.
You have only down C. Pace, B. Johnson and K. Vicent as players for your calculations.
This is showing there playing time
C. Pace 16/16
B. Johnson 16/12
K. Vincent 14/14
what about the following Cardinal FA that where signed be Cincy.
D. Blackstock 12/4
B. Johnson 16/9
Where they also added into the equations??
let me know
Thanks,
Cards Czar

 

[joeshmo]

I posted the following to Adam for clarification.

Adam thanks for doing all of this for the Comp picks.
I have 1 question on the Cardinals picks.
You have only down C. Pace, B. Johnson and K. Vicent as players for your calculations.
This is showing there playing time
C. Pace 16/16
B. Johnson 16/12
K. Vincent 14/14
what about the following Cardinal FA that where signed be Cincy.
D. Blackstock 12/4
B. Johnson 16/9
Where they also added into the equations??
let me know
Thanks,
Cards Czar

They wouldnt be because we either cut them or didnt give them an RFA tender offer.

 

[joeshmo]

There's an observation in the post, that maybe the Vincent signing wouldn't be elegible, and then we wouldn'treceive a high pick.

Yep. Tahts hwy I put Maybe and a ? in the thread title. It isnt an exact science even for the guy who projects them, he is only historically 85% to 90% accurate so there is room for error.

But even if Vincent doesnt count that would still mean we are 2 signed vs. 2 lost. Which means what is called a net loss 7th rounder like Detriot got. So I think we would still get at least a 7th rounder becuase the Pace contract alone beats out both Haggans and Laboys. So although it isnt a 3rd or a 4th I think we would still get a 7th if Adam's description of that rule is correct and if the way he used it for Detriot is correct.

 

[Skkorpion]

It all seems reasonable and fair. That's why it won't happen. We just don't ever seem to get the comp picks we should get.

 

[Cards Czar]

I posted the following to Adam for clarification.

Adam thanks for doing all of this for the Comp picks.
I have 1 question on the Cardinals picks.
You have only down C. Pace, B. Johnson and K. Vicent as players for your calculations.
This is showing there playing time
C. Pace 16/16
B. Johnson 16/12
K. Vincent 14/14
what about the following Cardinal FA that where signed be Cincy.
D. Blackstock 12/4
B. Johnson 16/9
Where they also added into the equations??
let me know
Thanks,
Cards Czar

Adam worte:

Neither of them were Unrestricted Free Agents.

Blackstock would have been a Restricted Free Agent, but the Cardinals did not tender him, so he was just a "street" free agent. And Brandon Johnson would have been an Exclusive Rights Free Agent but also was not tendered. Even if the Cardinals had tendered both of them, they wouldn't get any comp picks for them, because neither of them had enough seasons in the league to be true Unrestricted Free Agents. RFAs and EFAs (who can't leave anyway) don't count in the equation.


That sucks!!

 

[lauraw]

ive never understood the process of compensation picks. it seems like the Cards never get one, thats as much as i know about it! going on like 10 years when have we gotten one?

 

[CardsFan88]

If memory serves correct we tend to get one, maybe even two every couple of years.

But however the formula is done, it amounted to an extra 6th or a 7th most times. That's why many can't remember having any, because generally they are ultra low picks.

Other times we felt we deserved even an extra 6th or 7th, and didn't get one.

Hopefully that changes this year and we receive a 3rd or a 4th.

 

[cgolden]

What a waste, the guy has already updated the post and dropped the 'prediction' down for us to a 7th round pick. Maybe that's how he gets them nearly all right. He just switches them up every couple of days.

 

[football karma]

all is not lost

if Pitt doesnt get a 7th round comp pick, then the Cards will draft Mr Irrelevent

 

[AdamJT13]

What a waste, the guy has already updated the post and dropped the 'prediction' down for us to a 7th round pick.

Sorry about that. When I was researching, I went through all of the UFA signings to see which ones got released, and when I saw that the Cardinals had released a defensive lineman named Bryan Robinson in late August, I mistakenly disqualified the UFA the Cardinals signed from Cincinnati. I didn't know that the Cardinals actually had another defensive lineman named Bryan Robinson in training camp, an undrafted free agent, and it was he who was released. I've never seen a case of two players on the same team at the same position with the same name, so hopefully I'll never run into that problem again.

Maybe that's how he gets them nearly all right. He just switches them up every couple of days.

No, I usually don't have to make any adjustments. This is only the second or maybe the third time I can remember out of nine years of doing it, and they've all been almost immediately after I've first posted them, when someone notices something that I somehow missed (such as there being two Bryan Robinsons on the Cardinals). And the updated projections were posted long before the actual comp picks were announced, just like this year.

When I posted my original projections this year, I indicated that I might have to make a few adjustments if I was able to get certain information before the actual comp picks were announced, and I was lucky enough to get it the next day. The Bryan Robinson thing, however, was completely unexpected.

Anyhow, "switching them up every couple of days" wouldn't help me get any more right. When the actual comps are announced, I couldn't just count certain correct picks from different projections, I'd have to count whatever my final projections were. (Just as someone couldn't boost their mock draft score by switching their picks every few days and counting correct picks from different mocks.) I usually post my projections several weeks before the comp picks are announced, and there are plenty of people who can vouch for how well I've done.

Again, I'm sorry for having to change my projection for the Cardinals, but it was a mistake that needed to be corrected.

 

[rode kardinaal]

I think 2 Bryan Robinson's on a team, same position is a very forgiveable mistake. Don't know about this year yet, but good job on the other years. Your projections are always highly appreciated. Keep up the good work.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Again, I'm sorry for having to change my projection for the Cardinals, but it was a mistake that needed to be corrected.

Bah, No need to be sorry. Thanks to doing the work to figure it all out. Great stuff!

:smiliefan:

 

[JeffGollin]

Some Things Never Change -

D Urban just posted on his blog that the initial assessment by a guy he feels is reliable on the subject was that the Cards would wind up with a high-mid-round compensation pick.

But his source then re-thought the situation and now feels the best we'll get is a 7th round compensation pick.

If there are two things you can take to the bank each offseason, they're that: (a) big initial cap surpluses inevitably shrink to near-zero before we get to spend any and (b) despite all the early compensation pick buzz, we'll be lucky to get a lowly 7th rounder.

 

[PoolBoy]

all is not lost

if Pitt doesnt get a 7th round comp pick, then the Cards will draft Mr Irrelevent

 

[Shane]

Per Urbans Blog:

-- According to someone who has a pretty good track record of predicting such things, the Cards are in line to get an extra third- or fourth-round draft pick after the NFL sorts through the free-agent flotsam and jetsam of 2008. See? Calvin Pace’s crazy contract may actually benefit the Cards after all. UPDATE PART II: Seems our friend making the predictions (see above link) readjusted his thinking. The extra third- or fourth-round pick now is a seventh-round choice. Not nearly as sexy.