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DENVER — It feels almost as if the NCAA tournament selection committee did this on purpose.
One round after the 5-seed Wolverines knocked off 12-seed UC San Diego 68-65 — a team known for its ability to force turnovers, which has long been U-M’s weakness — Michigan basketball faces 4-seed Texas A&M, a team with strength that yet again is one of U-M’s primary weaknesses.
The Aggies, who enter ranked No. 17 by KenPom, are the nation's No. 1 offensive rebounding team, gathering 41.7% of their missed shots. Michigan, meanwhile, is merely in the middle of the pack in defensive boards, ranking No. 177 (out of 362 teams) in allowing opponents to grab 29.7% of their misses.
The Aggies don’t have any singularly elite rebounder — forward Andersson Garcia paces the team with 6.2 per game — but they do have five players averaging at least five boards per game.
Michigan first year head coach Dusty May says there's no secret about what his team has to do.
“It’s obviously point number one on the scouting report,” he said Friday afternoon at Ball Arena. “The way we chose to attack it is just like we did with the turnovers and UCSD. We have a couple flaws, things we haven’t done well this year — but it’s right in front of you.
“Either you do this, and there’s an extremely heightened awareness to fix it, or you’re going home. … We’re going to do the absolute best job we can to handle our defensive glass.”
Texas A&M is coached by Buzz Williams, who is looking to take his third team to the Sweet 16, following four previous trips — with Marquette in 2011, 2012 and 2013 and Virginia Tech in 2019. It would also be the Aggies’ first trip to the second weekend since 2018, when a then-3-seed U-M squad hammered A&M — the memorable Free Press headline: "Agg-kicking" — to advance to the Elite Eight and, eventualy, the national title game.
A&M lost in in overtime in last year's second round as a 9-seed to 1-seed Houston.
This time, A&M is more battle-tested, having played the nation’s sixth-hardest schedule (according to KenPom) but still racking up 11 victories over top-50 teams.
“They're not a bunch of silos going on at once,” May said of what Williams’ teams do well. "It all fits and works together. That's why they always seem to be playing late, late every year. Marquette, Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, they're always good.”
Texas A&M’s defense is elite, ranking No. 8 nationally in efficiency (92.2). But the Aggies are susceptible to giving up 3-pointers, allowing 46.6% of their total shots faced to come from beyond the arc. Michigan needs a good shooting day; a performance like Thursday vs. UCSD — 33.3% on 27 attempts — likely won't be good enough. The game vs. the Tritons made it 15 of 16 games in which U-M has shot 35% or worse on 3s.
“I think even last night down the stretch we got good looks, shots just weren’t falling,” Danny Wolf said of the 3-point shooting. “But when we’re hitting shots, it looks great, our offense is flowing and I have no doubt in my teammates that we will shoot the ball really well tomorrow.”
Either way, it’s not as if the Aggies shoot well, either. On the contrary: They’re one of the worst first-look offensive teams in the country, ranking No. 275 in 2-point shooting (48.7%), No. 283 at the free throw line (68.3%) and a paltry No. 325 in 3-point shooting (30.8%).
Additionally, no team has had a higher percentage of shots blocked than the Aggies (14.4%).
Still, A&M frequently stays poised, aided by being No. 5 in minutes continuity and No. 11 in total Division I experience (with an average of 2.97 years per player on the roster); the Aggies have eight seniors who have no remaining eligibility.
Senior guard Wade Taylor IV is the leader, averaging 15.7 points, despite shooting an inefficient 35.7%. Fellow senior guard Zhuric Phelps, putting up 13.8 points per game, is also a straight volume scorer; he’s shooting only 36.6% from the floor.
Another matchup to watch will be U-M's Vlad Goldin against former Minnesota center Pharrell Payne. The 6-foot-9, 250-pound big just put up a season-high 25 points to go with 10 rebounds in A&M’s 80-71 win over Yale. But he’s streaky, scoring in single digits in seven of 12 games since the start of February.
Of course, Goldin has familiarity with the Aggies, having played them in 2024 while at FAU.
“Probably one of the most physical teams I’ve ever played,” Goldin said. “They crash the glass, they play aggressive. … That’s what they do, that’s their identity.”
The last piece of the matchup to watch is the legs. Having won the Big Ten tournament, Michigan is on its fifth game in nine days and its eighth game in 20 days. A&M, meanwhile, will play just its second game in five days.
It's tough,” May said. "I mean, obviously the mental component, the emotional fatigue of playing in one-possession games like we have for so long, on so many nights…It’s a disadvantage. The flipside of it is as we're playing ball, we're hooping every couple days, we found a goody rhythm. We'll probably choose to go at it from that direction."
Michigan’s magic has been incredible. The Wolverines have won 11 consecutive games decided by four points or fewer. In each of U-M's past three games, Tre Donaldson has hit a go-ahead 3-pointer in the final 2:15. The Wolverines have a belief in themselves, but that can only take them so far. A&M is physical as heck and has eight seniors on their last journey together. If U-M can hit enough 3s, it will have a date with Auburn or Creighton in Atlanta, but with this the fifth game in nine days, the legs come up just short. The pick: Texas A&M 71, U-M 67.
Tony Garcia is the Michigan Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan basketball vs. Texas A&M prediction: Can Wolverines make Sweet 16?
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One round after the 5-seed Wolverines knocked off 12-seed UC San Diego 68-65 — a team known for its ability to force turnovers, which has long been U-M’s weakness — Michigan basketball faces 4-seed Texas A&M, a team with strength that yet again is one of U-M’s primary weaknesses.
The Aggies, who enter ranked No. 17 by KenPom, are the nation's No. 1 offensive rebounding team, gathering 41.7% of their missed shots. Michigan, meanwhile, is merely in the middle of the pack in defensive boards, ranking No. 177 (out of 362 teams) in allowing opponents to grab 29.7% of their misses.
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The Aggies don’t have any singularly elite rebounder — forward Andersson Garcia paces the team with 6.2 per game — but they do have five players averaging at least five boards per game.
Michigan first year head coach Dusty May says there's no secret about what his team has to do.
“It’s obviously point number one on the scouting report,” he said Friday afternoon at Ball Arena. “The way we chose to attack it is just like we did with the turnovers and UCSD. We have a couple flaws, things we haven’t done well this year — but it’s right in front of you.
“Either you do this, and there’s an extremely heightened awareness to fix it, or you’re going home. … We’re going to do the absolute best job we can to handle our defensive glass.”
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Texas A&M is coached by Buzz Williams, who is looking to take his third team to the Sweet 16, following four previous trips — with Marquette in 2011, 2012 and 2013 and Virginia Tech in 2019. It would also be the Aggies’ first trip to the second weekend since 2018, when a then-3-seed U-M squad hammered A&M — the memorable Free Press headline: "Agg-kicking" — to advance to the Elite Eight and, eventualy, the national title game.
A&M lost in in overtime in last year's second round as a 9-seed to 1-seed Houston.
This time, A&M is more battle-tested, having played the nation’s sixth-hardest schedule (according to KenPom) but still racking up 11 victories over top-50 teams.
“They're not a bunch of silos going on at once,” May said of what Williams’ teams do well. "It all fits and works together. That's why they always seem to be playing late, late every year. Marquette, Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, they're always good.”
Texas A&M’s defense is elite, ranking No. 8 nationally in efficiency (92.2). But the Aggies are susceptible to giving up 3-pointers, allowing 46.6% of their total shots faced to come from beyond the arc. Michigan needs a good shooting day; a performance like Thursday vs. UCSD — 33.3% on 27 attempts — likely won't be good enough. The game vs. the Tritons made it 15 of 16 games in which U-M has shot 35% or worse on 3s.
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“I think even last night down the stretch we got good looks, shots just weren’t falling,” Danny Wolf said of the 3-point shooting. “But when we’re hitting shots, it looks great, our offense is flowing and I have no doubt in my teammates that we will shoot the ball really well tomorrow.”
Either way, it’s not as if the Aggies shoot well, either. On the contrary: They’re one of the worst first-look offensive teams in the country, ranking No. 275 in 2-point shooting (48.7%), No. 283 at the free throw line (68.3%) and a paltry No. 325 in 3-point shooting (30.8%).
Additionally, no team has had a higher percentage of shots blocked than the Aggies (14.4%).
Still, A&M frequently stays poised, aided by being No. 5 in minutes continuity and No. 11 in total Division I experience (with an average of 2.97 years per player on the roster); the Aggies have eight seniors who have no remaining eligibility.
Senior guard Wade Taylor IV is the leader, averaging 15.7 points, despite shooting an inefficient 35.7%. Fellow senior guard Zhuric Phelps, putting up 13.8 points per game, is also a straight volume scorer; he’s shooting only 36.6% from the floor.
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Another matchup to watch will be U-M's Vlad Goldin against former Minnesota center Pharrell Payne. The 6-foot-9, 250-pound big just put up a season-high 25 points to go with 10 rebounds in A&M’s 80-71 win over Yale. But he’s streaky, scoring in single digits in seven of 12 games since the start of February.
Of course, Goldin has familiarity with the Aggies, having played them in 2024 while at FAU.
“Probably one of the most physical teams I’ve ever played,” Goldin said. “They crash the glass, they play aggressive. … That’s what they do, that’s their identity.”
The last piece of the matchup to watch is the legs. Having won the Big Ten tournament, Michigan is on its fifth game in nine days and its eighth game in 20 days. A&M, meanwhile, will play just its second game in five days.
It's tough,” May said. "I mean, obviously the mental component, the emotional fatigue of playing in one-possession games like we have for so long, on so many nights…It’s a disadvantage. The flipside of it is as we're playing ball, we're hooping every couple days, we found a goody rhythm. We'll probably choose to go at it from that direction."
Tony Garcia's March Madness prediction for Michigan basketball vs. Texas A&M
Michigan’s magic has been incredible. The Wolverines have won 11 consecutive games decided by four points or fewer. In each of U-M's past three games, Tre Donaldson has hit a go-ahead 3-pointer in the final 2:15. The Wolverines have a belief in themselves, but that can only take them so far. A&M is physical as heck and has eight seniors on their last journey together. If U-M can hit enough 3s, it will have a date with Auburn or Creighton in Atlanta, but with this the fifth game in nine days, the legs come up just short. The pick: Texas A&M 71, U-M 67.
Tony Garcia is the Michigan Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan basketball vs. Texas A&M prediction: Can Wolverines make Sweet 16?
Continue reading...
