My matchup evaluations, and keys to win for the Spurs series.

[dreamcastrocks]

This will be one of the few long winded posts that I post on any forum. I have anticipated this matchup all season long, and it is no surprise that the Suns and the Spurs are meeting in the 2nd round. The winner of this series will go on to win the championship.

I understand that the way that I am matching up these players are not the way that they will defend each other in the series per se.

Anyway, let's start by matching up a few players and probable matchups.


Steven Nash vs. Tony Parker - There is no better matchup of point guards in the league. Some like Nash vs. Kidd, I like Nash vs. Parker. Nash's ability to "overdribble" is incredible. There is no other player in the league that can overdribble and be effective. It usually brings the offense to a standstill, while teammates sit and watch. Allen Iverson is a perfect example of bad overdribbling. Nash's ability to setup his teammates, and to put them into position to succeed is nothing short of amazing. In fact, Nash has become the greatest ever in this regard, passing the great Magic Johnson.

Nash also has the ability to know what his team needs from him at any given time. Kobe is without a doubt the most gifted player in the league, but not the best player. He has no idea when he has to defer to his teammates, and when to turn it on. Nash does. EVERY game starts with Nash trying to get one of his teammates involved, usually it's to Raja as he understands the importance of Raja having a fast start. When the offense goes flat, or when teammates are hitting their shots, here comes Nash to the rescue. I could go on talking about Nash forever, but he is playing against:

Tony Parker. IMO, there is no player in the league that causes Nash more trouble. Not only does he have great quickness, but he knows how to finish around the basket. He has become a much better passer, and he also developed a 18' jumper. Nash will have to get 2-3 minutes of extra rest, if Parker is his primary responsibility on defense.

Advantage - Steve Nash


Raja Bell vs. Manu Ginobili - When the Suns signed Bell, Manu was pissed, saying that he was the best defender against him. Manu continues to have monster games against the Suns with Bell as his primary defender, but there are games were Bell gets the best of him too. So far this year, Bell is winning that matchup 2-1.The 1st matchup, Raja, held Manu to 3-13 shooting and only 12 points. The game where we blew the Spurs out of the water, Manu scored 32. The final game of the season, Raja won again, holding Manu to 3-11 shooting and only 7 points.

Plain and simple, Raja needs to win this matchup. I think that the All-NBA 1st team defender may be in over his head on this one.

Advantage - Manu Ginobili


Shawn Marion vs. Bruce Bowen - In 2005, Bowen completely shut Marion out of the series, period. Many fans here in Phoenix wanted Marion traded right after that series. Bowen is a couple of years older, but it is no coincidence that Allen Iverson had his "worst playoff series ever" facing Bowen last round. This matchup is going to be so huge for this series. Marion is going to have to crash the boards on both ends of the ball, as well as get out on the fast break to get easy points to build up his confidence. It is hard, if not impossible to do both successfully, but he has to do it somehow. It still amazes me that a player like Bowen can only shoot 58% at the line.

Advantage - Shawn Marion

Amare Stoudemire vs. Tim Duncan - Every Suns fan remembers the the only shining moment from the 2005 playoff series against the Spurs. It was Amare dominating Duncan. Duncan has never been abused that badly in the NBA playoffs, and it may never happen again. Tim Duncan won't be abused for 37 points this series, but the Suns and Amare has to try. Amare needs to crash the boards like he did in 2005, and like he did at times during the Lakers series. Tim Duncan is as complete of a power forward that the league has ever seen. He will go down as the best PF to play the game.

Advantage - Tim Duncan Slightly


Best of the Rest - So who is left in this series that has a chance to make an impact. Leandro Barbosa, James Jones, Boris Diaw, and Kurt Thomas for the Suns. Michael Finley, Robert Horry, Brent Berry, and a combination of Francisco Elson/Frabricio Oberto for the Spurs. Leandro will make a huge dent in this series with his uncanny quickness and deadly 3 point shooting. I am very curious to see how the Spurs will defend him. Horry and Berry will only be able to contribute behind the 3 point line for the Spurs. Little used Kurt Thomas played wonderfully last night when Amare was in foul trouble, and I hope that he gets more PT to play against Duncan.

Advantage - Suns

Coaches: Mike D'Antoni vs. Gregg Popovich D'Antoni and the style that the Suns bring has brought excitement back into this league. Their fast paced play and unselfishness with the ball is what makes this team go. Popovich plays exactly the opposite. The Spurs are very deliberate with what they do, and their gameplan is pretty much the same, no matter the opponent. Slow the game down, shut down 3 point shooters, and ride their big 3 as far as it can take them. Popovich is clearly a better X's and O's guy and has two championships to prove it.

Advantage - Gregg Popovich

Now that we talked about that, lets talk about what each team needs to do to win the series.


Keys to a Suns victory:

1. Wide Open Spacing - Spacing is the most important factor in the Suns high octane offense. If their spacing is good, the ball is moving. Proper spacing also gives Nash the room to operate and to find open shooters. Without good spacing, the Suns offense will sputter and will not score over 100 points all series. It's that important.

2. Double teaming Tim Duncan - The Suns do not have to double team Duncan every possession in order to win the game. They need to mix up the double team. When they do decide to double team Duncan, they need to do it hard and early after he gets the ball. If you wait a few seconds to double team Duncan, the rest of the team is able to move into position, as they spread out the floor and get open looks. The way that they double team Duncan, and how often they double team him will be a huge factor in this series.

3. Beep Beep - How much of an impact with Barbosa have on this series? He was huge against LA and he will have to play even better this series. He is the quickest player in the league, and this year he finishes around the basket much better. After Game 2 of the Laker series, Barbosa stopped attacking the basket. Thankfully his 3 point shooting was on, or we would have been in trouble.

4. Unsung heroes - Who will they be? Well, there will most likely be only three possibilities, Diaw, Jones, or Thomas. At least one of them will need to be very productive in each game for the Suns to have a chance. Game 4 of the Lakers series it was Jones. Game 5 it was Thomas. We need that same kind of production them this upcoming series.


Keys for the Spurs to win

1. Allow Tony Parker to control the tempo of the game. One of the best parts of Tony's game, is that he is able to control the tempo of the game with his play. If he Spurs have the numbers, they will run the break. When the ball is in his hands early in the shot clock, good things usually happen.

2. Interior Defense I watched most of the Spurs/Nugs series. One of the things that I noticed is that they had a gameplan to double team Carmelo as soon as he touched the ball. This strategy worked perfectly for a few reasons. First, like I said, they made an immediate decision to double team and stuck with it. This is something that the Suns could learn from. Second, Carmelo played right into the double team by not either passing or dribbling out of it until it was too late. Quick decisions by the player getting double teamed is imperative. Third, their weakside rotation was brilliant. (Duncan) Even after the double team took place, Duncan was always in position to make a play if the ball came anywhere near the paint. It really was a great defensive scheme. I am curious to see if they try the same things against Amare.

3. Big Shot Rob We know its going to happen. Horry wide open for three, swish. Horry cannot be allowed the ball with the game on the line. He has done it time and time again. He will hit it if we give him a chance.



I tried to keep this as unbiased as possible. Tell me what you think. No overall predictions in this thread for me.

 

[Chaplin]

Parker has never been Nash's main defensive responsibility, Nash has always guarded Bowen while Marion is primarily the one on Parker.

Other than that omission, pretty good write-up.

 

[Divide Et Impera]

If I'm coach, this is how I match the Suns up defensively:

Nash -> Bowen
Bell -> Parker
Marion -> Ginobili
Amare -> Oberto/Elson
Thomas -> Duncan

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Parker has never been Nash's main defensive responsibility, Nash has always guarded Bowen while Marion is primarily the one on Parker.

Other than that omission, pretty good write-up.

It wasn't really an omission, as I wanted to group both of the PG's together. I did state that it wasn't necessarily their defensive assignments as well. Just like I grouped Marion vs. Bowen, when Marion will spend a good time defending Duncan. I was grouping players rather than their defensive assignments.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

If I'm coach, this is how I match the Suns up defensively:

Nash -> Bowen
Bell -> Parker
Marion -> Ginobili
Amare -> Oberto/Elson
Thomas -> Duncan

I don't think that we see Thomas on the floor enough to make it happen.

I would also have Marion on Parker, as his long arms has a possibility of distrupting Parker. I also want Bell on Ginobili. For some reason, Marion doesn't understand that Ginobili loves to go left.

 

[Divide Et Impera]

The problem with Marion on Parker is that TP is the primary ball-handler and would effectively take Marion out of both the option of help defense and out of his offense because he will have to work on D the entire clock....

 

[dreamcastrocks]

The problem with Marion on Parker is that TP is the primary ball-handler and would effectively take Marion out of both the option of help defense and out of his offense because he will have to work on D the entire clock....

If we have Amare and Thomas in there, Marion's help defense will not need to be there as often.

 

[Divide Et Impera]

Still disagree. Marion having to chase Parker around all game will take him out of other aspects of the game (rebounding and slashing). Whereas Bell doesn't really expend too much energy on offense, he can use it all up on D and still be effective in his spot ups. So, while Marion's long arms give him an advantage against TP, the trade off more than negates that advantage. I'd rather Bell face-up TP all game and deny him the drive....

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Still disagree. Marion having to chase Parker around all game will take him out of other aspects of the game (rebounding and slashing). Whereas Bell doesn't really expend too much energy on offense, he can use it all up on D and still be effective in his spot ups. So, while Marion's long arms give him an advantage against TP, the trade off more than negates that advantage. I'd rather Bell face-up TP all game and deny him the drive....

If Barbosa was an adequate defender, we wouldn't be having this discussion. He obviously has the quickness and long arms to be a great defender, but that part of his game still escapes him.

I do agree with the Marion's reboundng, and it probably would suffer, but again. Hopefully Thomas is there to pick up the slack.

The sad part about it, is that whomever Marion isn't guarding between Parker and Ginobili, that player will have a great game.

 

[elindholm]

I think it was a good write-up. With all of the switching and substituting that takes place, it makes more sense to talk about the overall contributions of players at the same position than to worry about exactly who is guarding who.

I'd adjust the keys to victory a little:

Additional Suns keys

5. Defensive rebounding - The Suns aren't going to score as readily as they do against the rest of the league, so they'll have to get stops on a pretty regular basis. But a "stop" means not only forcing the first miss, but also collecting the ball afterward. If the Spurs get second and third shot attempts during critical stretches, the Suns' offense won't be able to keep pace.

6. Attack the basket - The Spurs are known whiners and after a while the referees start to listen. The Suns need to keep the pressure on the officials to call a level game. To hope that officiating won't be an issue in this series is naive -- the question is, will the Suns be able to stand up to that additional challenge? The Spurs are so accustomed to complaining that they don't even think about it anymore; it's like they just hit the "play" button on the internal audio player and let the mind tune out. Even when they look rattled, they know exactly what they're doing.

Additional Spurs keys

3b. Michael Finley - Horry will hit a shot or two, but that doesn't decide a series. The Spurs need a role player who can step up and punish the defense for focusing too heavily on the big three. Against the Nuggets, that was Finley.

4. Avoid foul trouble - The Spurs have only seven players who they really want on the floor: Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Bowen, Finley, Horry, and Oberto. Elson will probably be useless against the Suns, Barry apparently can't shoot anymore, and everyone else is terrible. Yet even with that short rotation, only Bowen averaged as many as three fouls per game against the Nuggets. If they can avoid going deep into their bench, they have a much better chance of controlling the games.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I think it was a good write-up. With all of the switching and substituting that takes place, it makes more sense to talk about the overall contributions of players at the same position than to worry about exactly who is guarding who.

I'd adjust the keys to victory a little:

Additional Suns keys

5. Defensive rebounding - The Suns aren't going to score as readily as they do against the rest of the league, so they'll have to get stops on a pretty regular basis. But a "stop" means not only forcing the first miss, but also collecting the ball afterward. If the Spurs get second and third shot attempts during critical stretches, the Suns' offense won't be able to keep pace.

6. Attack the basket - The Spurs are known whiners and after a while the referees start to listen. The Suns need to keep the pressure on the officials to call a level game. To hope that officiating won't be an issue in this series is naive -- the question is, will the Suns be able to stand up to that additional challenge? The Spurs are so accustomed to complaining that they don't even think about it anymore; it's like they just hit the "play" button on the internal audio player and let the mind tune out. Even when they look rattled, they know exactly what they're doing.

Additional Spurs keys

3b. Michael Finley - Horry will hit a shot or two, but that doesn't decide a series. The Spurs need a role player who can step up and punish the defense for focusing too heavily on the big three. Against the Nuggets, that was Finley.

4. Avoid foul trouble - The Spurs have only seven players who they really want on the floor: Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Bowen, Finley, Horry, and Oberto. Elson will probably be useless against the Suns, Barry apparently can't shoot anymore, and everyone else is terrible. Yet even with that short rotation, only Bowen averaged as many as three fouls per game against the Nuggets. If they can avoid going deep into their bench, they have a much better chance of controlling the games.

Good stuff. Defensive rebouding is huge. I wanted to add it, but I was already starting a novel. With the spacing that the Suns use on offense, it makes offensive rebounds scarce. Positions 1-3 are always out on the wings, and do not crash the boards when the ball is shot, which places an even greater emphasis on defensive rebounding.

The Suns also need to go right at Duncan to try and get him in foul trouble.

 

[azirish]

I think it was a good write-up. With all of the switching and substituting that takes place, it makes more sense to talk about the overall contributions of players at the same position than to worry about exactly who is guarding who.

I'd adjust the keys to victory a little:

Additional Suns keys

5. Defensive rebounding - The Suns aren't going to score as readily as they do against the rest of the league, so they'll have to get stops on a pretty regular basis. But a "stop" means not only forcing the first miss, but also collecting the ball afterward. If the Spurs get second and third shot attempts during critical stretches, the Suns' offense won't be able to keep pace.

6. Attack the basket - The Spurs are known whiners and after a while the referees start to listen. The Suns need to keep the pressure on the officials to call a level game. To hope that officiating won't be an issue in this series is naive -- the question is, will the Suns be able to stand up to that additional challenge? The Spurs are so accustomed to complaining that they don't even think about it anymore; it's like they just hit the "play" button on the internal audio player and let the mind tune out. Even when they look rattled, they know exactly what they're doing.

Additional Spurs keys

3b. Michael Finley - Horry will hit a shot or two, but that doesn't decide a series. The Spurs need a role player who can step up and punish the defense for focusing too heavily on the big three. Against the Nuggets, that was Finley.

4. Avoid foul trouble - The Spurs have only seven players who they really want on the floor: Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Bowen, Finley, Horry, and Oberto. Elson will probably be useless against the Suns, Barry apparently can't shoot anymore, and everyone else is terrible. Yet even with that short rotation, only Bowen averaged as many as three fouls per game against the Nuggets. If they can avoid going deep into their bench, they have a much better chance of controlling the games.

I would add the obvious from the Spurs standpoint: keep from getting killed by Amare without double teaming him. The Spurs could double team Anthony because Camby couldn't shoot and they didn't fear Blake.

Two years ago the Spurs stuck with straight defense on Amare and he had a huge series. Their plan to stop three point shooters (easier without JJ) proved decisive. However, leaving Duncan on Amare risks Tim getting into foul trouble, which would be a disaster for the Spurs offense.

 

[Chaplin]

Still disagree. Marion having to chase Parker around all game will take him out of other aspects of the game (rebounding and slashing). Whereas Bell doesn't really expend too much energy on offense, he can use it all up on D and still be effective in his spot ups. So, while Marion's long arms give him an advantage against TP, the trade off more than negates that advantage. I'd rather Bell face-up TP all game and deny him the drive....

Recent history would conflict with what you're saying, but maybe D'Antoni will change things up. (Shyeah, right)

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Recent history would conflict with what you're saying, but maybe D'Antoni will change things up. (Shyeah, right)

Poor D'Antoni.

 

[supernova]

Interesting to see the Spurs' fans comments over at Spurs Talk. Literally every second poster is predicting a sweep, with the other half saying 5 games. Overconfident much?

 

[Divide Et Impera]

Well, considering recent history, they've got the grounds for that....

 

[Divide Et Impera]

If I'm coach, this is how I match the Suns up defensively:

Nash -> Bowen
Bell -> Parker
Marion -> Ginobili
Amare -> Oberto/Elson
Thomas -> Duncan

I don't think that we see Thomas on the floor enough to make it happen.

I would also have Marion on Parker, as his long arms has a possibility of distrupting Parker. I also want Bell on Ginobili. For some reason, Marion doesn't understand that Ginobili loves to go left.

Parker did EXACTLY what I thought he would do to Marion. Marion had to play 10-12 feet off of him and he STILL couldn't stop the drive. On top of that, Parker was nailing his jumper. Game 2 needs the matchups I originally posted (Marion -> Ginobili and Bell -> Parker). Then again, we make the switch and Ginobili will probably go for 40....

 

[CaptainInsano]

You know it is amazing when I was just thinking:

"Oh we could really REALLY use someone who can hit the 15 footer really well for a good part of the game."

And then I remembered Kurt Thomas playing 13 minutes...

Dallas beat the spurs because they got a bit lucky of course, but they are also a bunch of 15ft jumpshooters with slashing mixed in and a dash of 3 pointers. The spurs love packing the lane and keeping 3 point shooters off the line, but when it comes to 15 footers that is their only real crux.

PLAY KURT FOR 25 D'ANTONI!!

 

[az1965]

Ginobili is coming off the bench. Marion will be guarding Finley and that is perfectly fine. Bell should guard Parker.

 

[Errntknght]

If you look at the box score you can see that Elson & Oberto combined for 24 minutes while Finley & Ginobili combined for 65. TD sat for some of Elson & Oberto's time so the Spurs were actually playing small over half the time - and they still out rebounded us by 14. Gino got 9 rebounds and Horry got 7, contrasted with 4 by Elson and Oberto combined. Basically, Amare by himself stayed even with the Spurs bigs and the rest of the Suns got outhustled badly on the boards. If we hadn't had 7 or so fewer turnovers than the Spurs we wouldn't have been in the game at all.

SA is not likely to fare that badly in turnovers again so the Suns are going to have to dramatically lower the rebound disparity to have a chance. Playing KT more will undoubtedly help but Marion, Bell and Barbosa have to take the responsibility of keeping their men off the boards.

The other thing we are going to have to do is play Parker much tighter on the perimeter - the way our guys were backed off him he didn't even have to run a pick and roll to get them screened - he rubbed them off on teammates that were eight feet closer to the hoop or just took the medium range shot. (Early in the game they did run the high P&R but they stopped when they saw it wasn't needed.)

Marion has proved he can't guard Tony so it's going to fall on Raja and Leandro - though, IMO, Banks is worth a look. Sometimes a guy who can't play well in ordinary circumstances can succeed when he is given a very specific task. (Corey Blount comes to mind.) "Harrass him full court. Body up on him at the arc so he has to put his body between you and the ball. Go over the screens. Force him left - and play him to come back right if he gets a half step. No 'and 1s'!"

Its obviously difficult but I think TP's layups can be blocked - he shows the ball early but he almost always waits until the last fraction of a second to put the ball on the glass. If a big anticipates that I think he could pin it or swipe it away just after it leaves his hand. The trick is to focus on his known release area rather than the ball itself.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Parker did EXACTLY what I thought he would do to Marion. Marion had to play 10-12 feet off of him and he STILL couldn't stop the drive. On top of that, Parker was nailing his jumper. Game 2 needs the matchups I originally posted (Marion -> Ginobili and Bell -> Parker). Then again, we make the switch and Ginobili will probably go for 40....

I'm glad that they tried it, but I have to wonder if he was told to play that far off. I have never seen Marion play that far off of anyone. It made his defense worse.

According to D'Antoni, they plan on putting Marion on Parker again in Game 2.

Bell on Ginobili has been shutting him down all year. I'll take it.

 

[Skkorpion]

DEI had this one nailed.