NBA Draft Power Rankings

3rdside

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Apologies for the delay on this - I got a ban on the p&R board (and rightly so - if i offended anyone there apologies for that also, I'm fairly sure I have no promising future in political diplomacy...) which carried over to this board with the change of format.


Onto the task at hand:



I have to say I was misguided with my initial outline of how this would work so, having put some more thought into it, and taken on board others' comments (again):


1. It needs to be simplified.


2. It needs to be more Suns focussed.


3. The ranking of players against each other is not necessary: Even though we’ll see results quicker, we could easily end up with GIGO (garbage in garbage out) e.g. in ‘Group 3 – High Lottery PF’s’; if both Bender and Chriss bust but one is marginally better, does anyone who picks one over the other really deserve points? Probably not.


4. Managing the recording / scoring of all players within a draft is not too difficult if we adopt a points system for every player as suggested. Think excel spreadsheet with all 60 players in the DraftExpress mock down one column and a points column next to that with a ranking for each player out of 7 (in line with Ouchie’s ratings - 7 for regular all-nba through to 1 for bust).


For the ‘Busts’ group; point scoring - at first thought - will be the same ranking scale but back to front i.e. a ‘7’ rated player earns you 1 point if you chose him as a bust, 6 becomes 2, 5 – 3 etc.


Obviously in the first few years scoring for most players will be low as they’ll be measured up against existing NBA players meaning trends might not emerge for a while, but maybe not.


---------------------------------


So bearing that in mind – and bearing with me (nothing worthwhile was ever done perfectly first time :lol: ) - the revised approach to the NBA Draft Power Rankings is as follows:
 
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3rdside

3rdside

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Based on DraftExpress.com mock draft 2016:


Group 1

Excluding the top 2 picks, if the suns go for BPA at #4, choose the 3 BPA’s.



Group 2

From pick 10 and below, if the suns go for BPA at #13, choose the 3 BPA’s.



Group 3

Ignoring anyone already chosen, pick the 3 non-lottery / 1st round BPA’s.



Group 4

From the second round, pick the 3 BPA’s.



Group 5

Pick 2 lottery busts from the top 10.
 
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3rdside

3rdside

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Thoughts:

- Group 3 might be overkill? (but I like it's thoroughness)
- When the rankings are constructed I'll include DraftExpress.com's also for comparison to see if anyone's 'better' than they are (with the BPA's they choose in order as they appear in their mock draft with their 'busts' being lottery picks 9 and 10 i.e. the lowest rated draft picks)

Feedback welcome of course.
 
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3rdside

3rdside

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Mine (to be confirmed):


Group 1

Excluding the top 2 picks, if the suns go for BPA at #4, choose the 3 BPA’s.

Marquese Chriss
Kris Dunn
Jamal Murray


Group 2

From pick 10 and below, if the suns go for BPA at #13, choose the 3 BPA’s.

Domantis Sabonis
Dejounte Murray
Henry Ellenson


Group 3

Ignoring anyone already chosen, pick the 3 non-lottery / 1st round BPA’s.

Denzel Valentine
Deyonta Davis
Furkan Korkmaz


Group 4

From the second round, pick the 3 BPA’s.

Thon Maker
Zhou Qi
Petr Cornelie



Group 5

Pick 2 lottery busts from the top 10.

Poetl
Brown
 

ColdPickleNachos

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Group 1: Jamal Murray, Kris Dunn, Dragan Bender

Group 2: Henry Ellenson, Domantas Sabonis, Malachi Richardson

Group 3: Ante Zizic, Denzel Valentine, Deandre Bembry

Group 4: Tyler Ulis, Ben Bentil, Paul Zipser

Group 5: Jakob Poeltl, Jaylen Brown
 
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3rdside

3rdside

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Alright CPN, we have 4 players (you, me, DraftExpress and NBADraft.net) so far. Draft is tomorrow so if anyone else is interested, please submit picks asap.
 
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3rdside

3rdside

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FYI - Obviously I'm committed to this thing so I'll run it regardless of the number of players meaning if you're even just thinking about doing it I'd say just do it; better to be in it and withdraw later than not be in it and have FOMO.

And one more thing - I'm not sure if I'm reading the tone from people correctly but maybe I am; I've got no desire to have people 'come play my game' / initiate some form of conversational control over the board....I'm interested in results only. If the game takes off then sure I might get some level of satisfaction but that's not the point of this....I'm hoping to increase the knowledge and insight of this board as a whole and to see if anyone actually has any ability at talent spotting.

(and i'm not intending to post for a looong time after the draft - I give myself a couple of days of discussion but after that I've got way too much on my plate i.e. see point above about conversational control - this board is like crack cocaine sometimes (not that I know what that's like!)
 

ColdPickleNachos

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Alright CPN, we have 4 players (you, me, DraftExpress and NBADraft.net) so far. Draft is tomorrow so if anyone else is interested, please submit picks asap.

I just want to beat NBADraft.net. I've always said they are the "blind squirrel" of the draft prognostication world. If I can't beat them, this may have to be my last year!
 
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3rdside

3rdside

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One year better then none!

Not sure why there's a lack of response here tbh but i'll soldier on like I said - maybe I can re-convince next year.
 

slinslin

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Because the rules are too complicated.

I have like 10 players I really like but it also depends on where they go and who is on the board etc.
 
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3rdside

3rdside

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Thanks for the feedback.

I thought that might be part of it as I have been too wordy and unclear at times but when all is said and done it's basically:

1. Pick 3 players the Suns should choose at #4
2. Pick 3 players the Suns should choose at #13
3. Pick 3 Non Lottery 1st Round players
4. Pick 3 Second Round players
5. Pick 2 busts from the top 10

With the simple of aim of being "Choose players that will earn you the most points" (i.e. those who will have the most career success).

That way draft position becomes largely irrelevant.

I thought about merging 3 and 4 above into a 'Sleeper' category but then Draft Power Ranking participants could take the easy route and simply pick 3 first rounders (or to take it further, choose picks #15, #16 and #17) in order to 'cheat' the game as first rounders are (no surprise) statistically far more likely to succeed than second rounders.

The game needs to be a little bit thorough to generate legitimate results.

So it's 14 players in total but as second rounders are basically a crapshoot (although guys like Maker, for me, make for easy picks) you could say it's more or less just 11 players to choose.
 

Russ Smith

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I just want to beat NBADraft.net. I've always said they are the "blind squirrel" of the draft prognostication world. If I can't beat them, this may have to be my last year!


They are terrible. I learned everything I needed to know about them the year Nikola Dragovic enrolled at UCLA. Draft.net rated him as a future lottery pick and raved about his performance in some summer event overseas. He got to UCLA, was terrible, chucker no defense, and then we found out he didn't actually play in the event they were talking about it was his buddy Nikola Vucevic not him.
 
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3rdside

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One for next year but DX have updated their mock again - final submission will have to be day before draft (and I've gained on valentine and davis, lost on ellenson and murray - the latter two i was actually going to change right now but will leave it as is in view of this post)
 
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3rdside

3rdside

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Also why make the picks before the draft even? As long as you pick your guys before summer league..

No way! If e.g. maker goes higher in the draft than predicted, then all that 'talent spotting' i've got that DX doesn't goes to waste (although i'm not liking these 23yo rumours...it's got to be a smoke screen!)
 

Errntknght

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Well, its already too late to choose but some things puzzle me. When you put a guy in category 3 - non lottery first round, what if he goes in the lottery or in the second round? Does he not count in the scoring for you? Same for category 4 - second round picks, he may go in the first round or not be picked at all. Another question I have - could we put a guy in both categories 1 and 2. Also what happens next year when we don't have picks 4 and 13? Another way your rules are aimed at this year - you exempted Simmons and Ingram from being chosen in your first set of rules.
 
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3rdside

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That's to your credit if any of the players you choose get selected higher than DX forecasts i.e. an NBA team has agreed with your 'talent spotting ability' as you've chosen someone 'undervalued' by DX.

But it makes no difference where the players you choose get drafted as it's their career success that's important and will earn you points:

That is, every one of the 14 players you've chosen across the 5 groups is individually allocated a score based on their 'career success to date' - the first score allocation takes place at the all-star break in 2017, and these get updated at the end of every season and all star break thereafter.

Scores range from '7' for a perennial all star through to '1' for a bust and all players you've chosen count towards your overall score. It goes, therefore, that the better the players you choose, the more points they earn.

Which means no duplication of players between the groups.

For subsequent years there will have to be some artistic license over the groupings as we won't have multiple high picks every year, but as long as the groups total 14 players each season then it will add up to the same maximum amount of points on offer each time.

If you want to throw in your selections then go for it - I think it's fair to say it will be a trial run this year.
 
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3rdside

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I'm gonna sign off from the board for a while but a couple of observations before I do about this game:

1. There's too many players to pick; I'll refine this.

2. Even though this draft was tough to call, the fact that the DX and NBADraft.net mocks changed so much on draft day (DX actually had Thon at 10 in their final one even though he'd been sitting at 30+ for the entire time, even as late as yesterday afternoon), and then the actual draft was significantly different to these anyway reassures me in a huge way that there is room for picking talent independent of the so called draft experts. Had you picked Maker (more obvious), Yabusele or Pappagiannis (these two less so) as second round players (as they were on DX before yesterday) that's a potentially huge boost for your score. The opposite of course if you picked Deyonta Davis, or Labissierre. It is essential (and excellent) for this game therefore to have picks submitted at least 24 hours before the draft.

Keep everyone (or is that just one person!) posted around all star break time.

(and as I can't post in P&R I'll say it here but WTF happened in my country last night with the UK referendum....Am struggling to digest the result but it's not to say positive change can't come from it. Not sure I entirely believe what I've just written but will just have to keep calm and carry on as they say over here!)
 
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elindholm

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2. Even though this draft was tough to call, the fact that the DX and NBADraft.net mocks changed so much on draft day (DX actually had Thon at 10 in their final one even though he'd been sitting at 30+ for the entire time, even as late as yesterday afternoon), and then the actual draft was significantly different to these anyway reassures me in a huge way that there is room for picking talent independent of the so called draft experts.

I say it all the time: The frequent shifts in the online mock drafts are to generate page loads. The experts don't know a whole lot more than we do. They make up something on a whimsy that they hope will attract attention, then do it again once enough of their viewership has gotten used to it.
 
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3rdside

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bump...this thing is a little too complicated but the gist is good.

Either way, I'm busting everywhere and so are you CPN - the second comings of Buford we are not! (yet..)

You get paid for Ulis, I might for Maker. But Chriss is good to go for sure so points there for me.
 

ColdPickleNachos

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Group 1: Jamal Murray, Kris Dunn, Dragan Bender

Group 2: Henry Ellenson, Domantas Sabonis, Malachi Richardson

Group 3: Ante Zizic, Denzel Valentine, Deandre Bembry

Group 4: Tyler Ulis, Ben Bentil, Paul Zipser

Group 5: Jakob Poeltl, Jaylen Brown


I guess the best thing I have to fall back on is that most of these are incomplete? hahaha

Group 1: I stand by the Murray pick and hope the Bender one turns out well!

Group 2: Looks shaky.

Group 3: I still like Zizic. Almost put Zubac in here and it seems like I should have.

Group 4: Ulis, for the win.

Group 5: Brown has definitely shown potential. We'll see...
 

ColdPickleNachos

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Mine (to be confirmed):


Group 1

Excluding the top 2 picks, if the suns go for BPA at #4, choose the 3 BPA’s.

Marquese Chriss
Kris Dunn
Jamal Murray


Group 2

From pick 10 and below, if the suns go for BPA at #13, choose the 3 BPA’s.

Domantis Sabonis
Dejounte Murray
Henry Ellenson


Group 3

Ignoring anyone already chosen, pick the 3 non-lottery / 1st round BPA’s.

Denzel Valentine
Deyonta Davis
Furkan Korkmaz


Group 4

From the second round, pick the 3 BPA’s.

Thon Maker
Zhou Qi
Petr Cornelie



Group 5

Pick 2 lottery busts from the top 10.

Poetl
Brown

Group 1 - Looking good on Murray and Chriss

Group 2 - Meh

Group 3 -Meh

Group 4 - Maker is a good pick, but it's a little funny given he ended up being picked in the top 10.

Group 5 - Same as mine.
 

ColdPickleNachos

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In our defense, there have not been a lot of clear standouts. I'm not even sure what the perfect prediction would look like at this point, although I know it would include Malcolm Brogdon.
 
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3rdside

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I'm embarrassed to say I wrote the name Ellenson anywhere on my submission


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SirStefan32

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I'm embarrassed to say I wrote the name Ellenson anywhere on my submission


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Eh, I wanted Tskitishvili over Amare back in the day, so putting Elleson on your list is really not nearly as bad. :p
 

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