New Kind of 7 Round Mock

[JeffGollin]

Now that the supplemental picks have been awarded, I attempted to put together a 7 round mock. The two things that figure to mess uo most mocks of this sort are (1) determining what the board should look like and (2) realizing that your board, the Cardinal board and the boards of the other 31 teams will all vary to some degree.

So what I did was (a) use Scouts Inc. 0 - 100 player ratings for each player, (b) rank all 350+ players in descending sequence using Scouts Inc.'s ratings, (c) determine the rating # of players available when the Cardinals pick, (d) consider all players with that same number as "tied", (e) list prospects rated 1 or 2 points higher that could "drop down" and (f) list prospects rated 1 or 2 points lower that we might reach for because they represented a better "fit"

Here's what I came up with:

#10. Cutler QB (96 Rating)
Ngata, LD White J Williams are all rated 96. Young, W Davis and Huff are rated 97, but could drop to us at #10. Current buzz (per MJ) is that we'll take either Cutler or Young if availble (My guess is that Young would trump Cutler on DG's board if both were there).

#41. Lutui G (89 Rating)
Byrd, R Wright and K Simpson also rated 89.

#72. Bullocks (78 Rating)
Bullocks and Dvoracek (78] are both rated lower than other available players - O Jacobs QB, O Callaghan OT, O Harris DT and R Marshall CB all have 80 ratings. Croyle and Jason Allen have 79's. But I think either Bullocks or Dvoracek represent better "fits."

#106. Jolley NT (69 Rating)
You can get guys valued at 71 points here (Lee, O Daniels, Trueblood and Henderson). And Maheluna, Norwood, Spitz, Minter & Pollard are valued at 70. But, to me, Jolley, Clemens QB and D Thomas TE - all rated at 69 - would be a better fit here.

#142. Day TE (63 Rating)
Riggs, Strief, Cook, Mills, Dobbins, Maxey and W Smith all share 63 Ratings. Jahri Evans (whom I rate as a sleeper guard) is one notch lower at 62.

#177. Roman Harper S (56 Rating)
Webb, McQuistan, Stenavich, La Casse and T Williams all are rated higher (at 57 points). The UCLA QB (Olsen) is rated at 58 and could drop down. Penn State slasher Mike Robinson is sitting there even with Harper at 56.

218. Domanic Raiola C (46 Rating)
Obamanu is rated at 47. F. Roach (50) or Iwuh (50) could drop to us. Mix (44) and Nanton (44) are both intriguing picks here. But I like Railoa. (Good blood lines - lunchpail guy at a position of need).

Notes:

- Where we pick (after supplementals were added in) is still not 100% nailed down (but should be pretty close).

- The one wild card in all this is still what everyone's respective boards will look like (I know mine is miles away from both the War Room and Scouts Inc.'s). But the process - of determining a target and then checking out players directly above and directly below - is kind of interesting.

 

[CronosCard]

"..And in this corner.."

Good work Jeff!

 

[seesred]

Jeff you are something. Thanks for putting in the work. For a guy like me who knows little about most college players this guide helps a lot.

GBR
40

 

[Krangodnzr]

Excellent work Jeff, but it would be really cool to have the entire list here so that the rest of us could post our own based on your sound model.

 

[JeffGollin]

Excellent work Jeff, but it would be really cool to have the entire list here so that the rest of us could post our own based on your sound model.

I will on the BRS as soon as I can find the time.

 

[CardLogic]

#142. Day TE (63 Rating)
Riggs, Strief, Cook, Mills, Dobbins, Maxey and W Smith all share 63 Ratings. Jahri Evans (whom I rate as a sleeper guard) is one notch lower at 62.

Do the Cardinals really need another mediocre TE??

#177. Roman Harper S (56 Rating)
Webb, McQuistan, Stenavich, La Casse and T Williams all are rated higher (at 57 points). The UCLA QB (Olsen) is rated at 58 and could drop down. Penn State slasher Mike Robinson is sitting there even with Harper at 56

Robinson intrigues me. He is a heck of an athlete, wonder what he would be like at FS?!...

 

[Krangodnzr]

Robinson intrigues me. He is a heck of an athlete, wonder what he would be like at FS?!...

Ask Scott Frost and Eric Crouch how easy that transition is...or Steve Bellisari.

 

[CardLogic]

Ask Scott Frost and Eric Crouch how easy that transition is...or Steve Bellisari.

I think what former QB's struggle with the most is mental - getting it in your head that your not "the QB" anymore...

 

[joeshmo]

I like the first 5 picks.

But, I would go a different direction in the last 2 rounds based on who you have left to pick and who was picked in the first 5 rounds. But it is also hard to complain about a 6th or 7th rounder.


I would take Stenavich instead of Harper. With Bullocks, Wilson, Shazor, and Griffith in the mix next year, and no depth at OT, I think I would rather have the Michigan talent Stenavich who can play any position on the OL.

I would also take Roach instead of Raiola. With Lutui in the mix it most likely means Wells moves to Center, and with Step and Lecky under him a 7th round C is just not needed. But a big MLB is with the uncertianty of Hayes and Mitchell whom we tried to replace both for a 2nd straight year with Bart Scott.

 

[BACH]

I agree that Green will prefer Young over Cutler, but I'm still not convinced that they go for a QB over Huff etc.

Lutui in the 2nd is way too high IMO. Big G's have a tendency to slide on draft day and I expect the same from Lutui.

Anyway, just for fun there's how The War Room rates "your" picks:

Jay Cutler
QB, Vanderbilt
Overall grade: 8.3
Overall Ranking: 10
War Room analysis
Arm strength: Has good size and body strength, which helps him have a very strong arm. Makes every NFL throw. Shows good zip on deep outs and delivers passes into tight spots. Throws a nice deep ball; can also throw across his body while on the move. But overconfidence here sometimes means trouble. Grade: 8.2.

Accuracy/delivery: Shows good overall accuracy and timing. Can thread the needle in dropping the ball between defenders. Needs better mechanics, a quicker release and a more consistent release point. Sometimes throws off back foot, causing passes to sail. Grade: 8.1.

Field vision: Is smart. Sees the field well. Makes good progression reads and checks down. Has a good feel for the game and is patient in the pocket. Also has great vision as an open-field runner. Grade: 8.3.

Running ability: Is a great athlete, but footwork needs work. Has good pocket awareness and quickness. Can buy extra time with his feet. Doesn't shy away from tucking the ball and taking off. Changes directions well. Grinds out tough yardage; has a nose for the first-down marker. Grade: 8.4.

Intangibles: Is a great competitor; plays hard all the time. Shows the leadership to win respect of teammates and motivate those around him. Has great passion for the game; finds ways to win. Grade: 8.6.

Bottom line: Cutler considered entering the 2005 draft but wisely decided to stay in school. He played with great emotion as a senior, showing that he can make NFL-caliber plays. Cutler's stock has soared this season although there might be some concern about the physical pounding he has taken. An experienced player who finally is getting the recognition he deserves, Cutler is a surefire first-rounder.

Dan Pompei analysis
Productive player with a cannon arm and top athleticism. Has great potential and is a good leader. Is a bit of a gambler who has some Brett Favre in him. Needs technique work.



News
Cutler built his draft stock with strong workouts at the Senior Bowl and Combine. However, his throws at the Combine raise concerns about his accuracy. Unless something drastic happens Cutler will be a likely first-round pick but will not overtake USC's Matt Leinart as the first quarterback selected. -- War Room scouts

Taitusi Lutui
G, USC
Overall grade: 5.8
Overall Ranking: 85
War Room analysis
Strengths: Uses massive frame well; rarely loses balance once locked on to an opponent. Anchors well against bigger, stronger pass rushers. Holds up nicely in pass protection; can mirror and slide if set properly. Has surprising short-area agility. Has great potential.

Weaknesses: Must lose weight; excess bulk shows in marginal speed, mobility and lack of open-field effectiveness. Has trouble with shifting speed and blocking downfield. Overextends and lunges.

Bottom line: Nicknamed "Deuce", Lutui is durable and has experience in a high-profile NFL-style program. He must get his weight under control, but he could become a NFL starter. He projects as an early-to-mid Day 2 prospect.

Daniel Bullocks
Overall grade: 6.6
Overall Ranking: 60
S, Nebraska
War Room analysis
Strengths: Is a playmaker with good instincts and balls skills. Takes good angles to the ball. Fills hard against the run and is a great tackler. Has great intangibles. Has nice technique against the pass; stays low in his backpedal and has fluid hip movement. Has good speed; can get to the sideline to help cornerbacks in coverage. Always lines up correctly and gets other defensive backs in position.

Weaknesses: Does not make smooth cuts and lacks good change-of-direction skills. Must rely on pre-snap recognition skills because lacks recovery speed. At times can be overaggressive in coverage, allowing receivers to get behind him. Struggles in man-to-man coverage against spread offenses. Must add bulk.

Bottom line: Bullocks is an experienced strong safety prospect who has good overall athleticism and great leadership skills. He had an impressive week of practice at the Senior Bowl. He is better in run support than he is in coverage. Bullocks doesn't project as someone who can contribute right away in sub-packages, but he can be an immediate special teams contributor. Bullocks must refine his cover skills, but he should be a late-Day 1 selection.


Johnny Jolly
DT, Texas A&M
Overall grade: 5.9
War Room analysis
Strengths: Is tall and bulky. Shows great quickness and anticipates snaps well. Once engaged, is quick to locate the ball and shed blocks. Has experience in two-gap and one-gap schemes. Is powerful at the point of attack and can collapse the pocket as a pass rusher. Bats down plenty of passes. Is durable and steady. Plays with high emotion. Shows good leadership skills.

Weaknesses: Doesn't excel as a pass rusher. Must use hands better to shed pass blockers. Gives up chest to opponents too easily. Must improve stamina. Lacks closing burst to the quarterback. Must get better at splitting double teams.

Bottom line: Jolly is one of the draft's most experienced defensive linemen and has been especially productive against the run. He is not an elite prospect, however, because he tends to play with poor technique and is a below-average pass rusher. His upside and ability to play in both two- and one-gap systems make him worthy of an early-Day 2 pick.

Tim Day
TE, Oregon
Overall grade: 5.9
War Room analysis
Strengths: Works hard. Has good size, sure hands, decent speed and natural receiving skills. Runs tight routes. Is a big target with enough quickness to get position on short routes and be effective in traffic. Quick and athletic enough to effectively block on outside runs. Takes good angles, uses hands well and gets adequate leverage when blocking.

Weaknesses: Lacks ideal height. Has no outstanding trait. Athleticism doesn't translate to performance. Lacks ideal top-end speed, limiting ability to stretch defenses and gain yards after the catch. Lacks the upper-body strength and mental toughness to separate from defenders at the line. Was healthy as a senior, but durability remains an issue.

Bottom line: While Day is a steady, consistent player, he doesn't stand out in any area. He broke out as a senior as a good red zone, possession-type receiver, but his college development and production were limited by foot and shoulder injuries in his sophomore and junior seasons. His receiving skills and athleticism might land him on Day 1, but early Day 2 is a better bet.


Roman Harper
S, Alabama
Overall grade: 5.8
War Room analysis
Strengths: Is a versatile defender, having started at both safety positions. Has great instincts and pre-snap recognition skills. Reads quarterbacks’ eyes and gets a great jump on the pass. Started 38 consecutive games, demonstrating durability. Has superb technique and does the little things right. Is a tough run defender who hits hard for his size. Is smart, coachable and studies game film well.

Weaknesses: Lacks ideal measurables. Must always guess right; lacks the athleticism to make up for his mistakes. Is a bit slow in transition; doesn’t explode out of cuts and takes a while to get to full speed. Could be a liability in man-to-man coverage against slot receivers.

Bottom line: Coaches love Harper because he is a leader, plays with intensity and understands the game. He is good at all facets of the game but not great at any of them. His combine numbers will look ordinary, but he is a polished defender who can help at both safety positions as well as in nickel and dime packages. His versatility should earn him an early-Day 2 selection.

Donovan Raiola
C, Wisconsin
Overall grade: 4.9
War Room analysis
Strengths: Tough and smart; gets great position and plays with intensity to the whistle. Shows good intelligence; makes all the correct line calls and helps linemates remember assignments. Plays with good discipline. Uses hands well to maximize strong upper body. Displays a strong hand punch, and overpowers defenders at the point of attack. Plays with good leverage.

Weaknesses: Must bulk up and strengthen lower body. Lacks the size to consistently match up against big defensive tackles. Shows limited range and athleticism. Shows more quickness than pure speed. Lacks the mobility to consistently reach linebackers.

Bottom line: Raiola compensates for his lack of elite size and athleticism with quickness, toughness, smarts and technique. Only his subpar frame and average mobility prevent him from being an elite prospect. He projects as a mid-Day 2 pick.

The Grading System
The football scouts of The War Room grade players on a 1.0 to 9.0 scale:

9 - Franchise player
8 - Pro Bowl potential
7 - Could start as a rookie
6 - Eventual starter
5 - Quality backup
4 - Should make an NFL roster
3 - Chance to make a roster
2 - Not likely to make a roster
1 - Might get invited to an NFL camp

 

[JeffGollin]

"The Big Board" Player Rankings Now Up on BRS

Excellent work Jeff, but it would be really cool to have the entire list
It's posted on the BRS (www.azcardinal.com).

- When you access the home page, click "For Latest Cardinal News Click Here."
(You'll be taken to the Highlights Index Page)

- On the Highlights Index Page, locate and click 2006 Draft Issue - Summary Page.
(You'll be taken to the Draft Summary Page)

- On the Draft Summary Page, locate and click "The Big Board" (Ranks 291 prospects based on Scouts Inc. ratings).

(Note - You might want to bookmark the Draft Summary Page - it's where you go to access all the other 2006 draft stuff on the site).

(Another Note - Where several players were given identical ratings (i.e. 4 or 5 players with a 76 rating), I arbitrarily ranked them according to whom I liked best).

 

[john h]

Good work Jeff!

Great effort as usual Jeff.

 

[WildBB]

Great work Jeff - who are the highest rated OT's where we pick at #41? I think it would be Winston, Colledge then Trueblood , correct? That'd be a tough call since we need OT nore than OG at this point MTL.

 

[JeffGollin]

who are the highest rated OT's where we pick at #41? I think it would be Winston, Colledge then Trueblood , correct?
Remember - this is what Scouts Inc. says (not my ratings or rankings):

Nearest lineman who could drop to us at #41 is Lutui (89 Rating - who could go as high as #37 or as late as #40 according to Scouts Inc. ratings)

Above that would be Winston (90 Rating - who, based on Scouts Inc. ratings could go as high as #29 or as late as #36).

Those would be the two who could conceivably fall to us.

Or we could reach downward a little:

Closest to #41 would be G Davin Joseph (84 Rating & projected to go no higher than #58].

After that, Andrew Whitworth T LSU (82 rating and projected to go no higher than #64).

All this tells us is - if the Scouts Inc. rating numbers turn out to closely match what actually happens on Draft Day (not a slam dunk by any measure), if the Cardinals were dead-set on drafting an offensive linemen, the two guys they'd logically zero in on would be Lutui (who could drop down a couple of notches into our laps) or Joseph (who we'd reach 17 picks in value for).

Both are guards, but that wouldn't bother me. Lutui is also projected as a tackle as well as a guard on some boards. And we can always leave Davis and Ross at tackle anyway.

My guess is that if DG and RG found that Lutui (and Winston) weren't available at #41, they'd go in a different direction (i.e. "best player"). LB's Thomas Howard (#41) and Abdul Hodge (#44) would probably be available. Or maybe we'd get lucky and Ko Simpson (#39) or TE Domanick Byrd (#38] would fall to us.

These scenarios would support the "Catcher in the Rye" philosophy of DG and RG standing at the bottom of the cliff waiting to catch the best the best available dude who falls over.