Noodle Arms: Brown and Floyd among top 5 WR underthrown ball targets

[kerouac9]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/2014-incomplete-pass-breakdown-receivers

For those who think that Michael Floyd had a terrible year because he doesn't understand the offense or something, keep in mind that 30% of his targets were uncatchable.

John Brown and Michael Floyd also appeared in the Top 5 of passes defensed.

As for the passers, neither Palmer nor Stanton showered themselves in glory, ranking toward or at the bottom in terms of inaccurate incompletions:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/2014-incomplete-pass-breakdown-passers

I'm concerned about our offense next year.

 

[Azlen]

There doesn't seem to be a huge correlation there between ranking on the QB list and team success. Shaun Hill, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer and Mark Sanchez are all grouped together there.

 

[BigRedRage]

I think Floyd will go beast mode this year

 

[juza76]

yes qb plays not so good as we thought with palmer

 

[TJ]

There is a significant difference between Carson throwing you a decent ball within your catching radius versus Stanton throwing 10' over your head and Lindley throwing at your toes or to your left.

 

[kerouac9]

There doesn't seem to be a huge correlation there between ranking on the QB list and team success. Shaun Hill, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer and Mark Sanchez are all grouped together there.

There are a lot of moving parts--starting with how defenses contribute 2/5ths of team success. Detroit, Denver, Philly and Arizona all had Top 10 defenses based on DVOA, and New England's was 12th.

New England and Denver still managed Top 10 passing DVOA, but Detroit (17th), Philly (15th), and us (19th) ended up in the middle quartile.

There isn't a huge data set here; I'm by no means saying that this is somehow determinative of much. If the rush offense improves (30th DVOA), this offense can still limp along. But I think people believe that the offense is going to be find as long as Palmer is healthy. I'm not sure that's the case.

 

[daves]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/2014-incomplete-pass-breakdown-receivers

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/2014-incomplete-pass-breakdown-passers

Strange that you'd title this thread "Noodle Arms" when the first link shows that Floyd was overthrown 17 times vs. 11 underthrows, John Brown was overthrown 13 times to 12, and Fitz was overthrown 18 times to 6.

Meanwhile, the second link shows that Palmer had three times as many overthrows as underthrows. Ranked by overthrow:underthrow ratio, Palmer comes in 18th out of 36 listed QBs... but by reputation and if you watch him throw, it's clear he has one of the stronger arms in the game.

Stanton appears strong-armed also, but is ranked 32 of 36 in overthrow:underthrow... interesting and perhaps concerning, but i suspect there's more to the story than having a "noodle arm".

Obviously, as one of the fastest players in the game, targeted largely on deep routes, Brown will be underthrown more than most WRs. And Floyd seemed to be sent on a pretty high percentage of comeback and jump-ball routes, emphasizing his size and strength advantage over most WRs.

It appears that these stats are better evidence of the WRs strengths and weaknesses than of the QBs' "Noodle Arms". The fact that Fitzgerald was overthrown FAR more often than he was underthrown lends additional support to this interpretation.

Speculating further - with the exception of the times when Brown blew past the coverage, all three WRs seemed to be below average at getting separation - which could be another factor in the below-average rankings of both QBs on "bad throws". Yet Floyd and Fitz have good hands, which may have helped boost Palmer's completion percentage despite the "bad throws".

I'm concerned about our offense next year.

Meh... Palmer only had 13 underthrown balls in 6 games, some of which he played while likely not 100% recovered from the nerve damage in his shoulder. He looked fine to me, and ended up 6-0 with a 95.6 passer rating, 8th in the league. His yards per attempt and completion were at or above his career averages.

Of course his interception rate and sack rate were near league and career lows. Was that the fluky result of small sample size, or the result of playing in his second year in a system that's well suited to him, with a strong supporting cast?

If he stays healthy this year, with the added talent on the O-line and at RB, i'm optimistic.

And i sure don't think he has a "Noodle Arm"!

...dbs

 

[cardncubfan]

Great post Dave.

 

[Cardsfan77]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/2014-incomplete-pass-breakdown-receivers

For those who think that Michael Floyd had a terrible year because he doesn't understand the offense or something, keep in mind that 30% of his targets were uncatchable.

John Brown and Michael Floyd also appeared in the Top 5 of passes defensed.

As for the passers, neither Palmer nor Stanton showered themselves in glory, ranking toward or at the bottom in terms of inaccurate incompletions:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/2014-incomplete-pass-breakdown-passers

I'm concerned about our offense next year.

Good info thanks for sharing, but I think I'll stick mainly with passer rating when it comes to measuring QB success/failure.

 

[daves]

Great post Dave.

Gracias!

...dbs

 

[BigRedRage]

Strange that you'd title this thread "Noodle Arms" when the first link shows that Floyd was overthrown 17 times vs. 11 underthrows, John Brown was overthrown 13 times to 12, and Fitz was overthrown 18 times to 6.

Meanwhile, the second link shows that Palmer had three times as many overthrows as underthrows. Ranked by overthrow:underthrow ratio, Palmer comes in 18th out of 36 listed QBs... but by reputation and if you watch him throw, it's clear he has one of the stronger arms in the game.

Stanton appears strong-armed also, but is ranked 32 of 36 in overthrow:underthrow... interesting and perhaps concerning, but i suspect there's more to the story than having a "noodle arm".

Obviously, as one of the fastest players in the game, targeted largely on deep routes, Brown will be underthrown more than most WRs. And Floyd seemed to be sent on a pretty high percentage of comeback and jump-ball routes, emphasizing his size and strength advantage over most WRs.

It appears that these stats are better evidence of the WRs strengths and weaknesses than of the QBs' "Noodle Arms". The fact that Fitzgerald was overthrown FAR more often than he was underthrown lends additional support to this interpretation.

Speculating further - with the exception of the times when Brown blew past the coverage, all three WRs seemed to be below average at getting separation - which could be another factor in the below-average rankings of both QBs on "bad throws". Yet Floyd and Fitz have good hands, which may have helped boost Palmer's completion percentage despite the "bad throws".



Meh... Palmer only had 13 underthrown balls in 6 games, some of which he played while likely not 100% recovered from the nerve damage in his shoulder. He looked fine to me, and ended up 6-0 with a 95.6 passer rating, 8th in the league. His yards per attempt and completion were at or above his career averages.

Of course his interception rate and sack rate were near league and career lows. Was that the fluky result of small sample size, or the result of playing in his second year in a system that's well suited to him, with a strong supporting cast?

If he stays healthy this year, with the added talent on the O-line and at RB, i'm optimistic.

And i sure don't think he has a "Noodle Arm"!

...dbs

Post more often!

 

[Darkside]

Disagree with the premise, mostly because it's wrong, but also because it's not indicative of good QB play. Stanton, in particular, was disappointing, to me at least, because while he had a good middle game, he rarely connected with the underneath outlet passes or options in the flats, often when they were wide open. When you're a backup, you have to be efficient and move the chains. I was really high on Stanton if you go back and read the posts in the middle of his "run", but it quickly became apparent why he was a backup, and it doesn't have anything to do with his struggling long ball. I still think he's a great backup, but people who think he's starter material are misinformed. If you can't see the whole field and make all the throws, you're not a starter.

Palmer has been good though, for years, and even though he has the arm, he doesn't go deep as often as people think, but he's very effective when he does. People seem to remember Bengal highlights because of Ocho Cinco, formerly Chad Johnson, which is a much cooler name frankly, but Palmer isn't the chucker people think he is, even though he has a cannon.

In average depth of throw completed, over the last 8 years, Palmer is ranked 4th among Qb's. When I say he doesn't chuck a lot, here's what I mean: he's had 209 throws that deep while the next closest is Romo at 467. When he does do it though, his average is an incredible 9.2, which is only eclipsed by Romo's 9.5. Palmer has an incredible 69% completion percentage at that depth and beyond.

Last year Palmer was again ranked 4th among QB's in depth of throw completion percentage. 9.2 average depth, which again wiped everyone out but Romo at 9.5. His completion percentage? Again, 69%.

Palmer is deadly in the mid-to-long game, and destructive in the short game. He's accurate in all phases and can dink and dunk to get scores if that's all they're giving us. He's a complete QB and it's too bad--and I mean really a shame, imagine what he imagined himself being out of college--that he's been hampered by serious, and I mean career ending injuries.

It's a shame, but he doesn't have a noodle arm. You don't lose that with age, he can still chuck it with accuracy, we just need to keep him upright and healthy.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/02/23/2014-depth-adjusted-completion-percentage/

 

[Cheesebeef]

Post more often!

screw that long-haired hippy!

 

[kerouac9]

Disagree with the premise, mostly because it's wrong, but also because it's not indicative of good QB play. Stanton, in particular, was disappointing, to me at least, because while he had a good middle game, he rarely connected with the underneath outlet passes or options in the flats, often when they were wide open. When you're a backup, you have to be efficient and move the chains. I was really high on Stanton if you go back and read the posts in the middle of his "run", but it quickly became apparent why he was a backup, and it doesn't have anything to do with his struggling long ball. I still think he's a great backup, but people who think he's starter material are misinformed. If you can't see the whole field and make all the throws, you're not a starter.

Palmer has been good though, for years, and even though he has the arm, he doesn't go deep as often as people think, but he's very effective when he does. People seem to remember Bengal highlights because of Ocho Cinco, formerly Chad Johnson, which is a much cooler name frankly, but Palmer isn't the chucker people think he is, even though he has a cannon.

In average depth of throw completed, over the last 8 years, Palmer is ranked 4th among Qb's. When I say he doesn't chuck a lot, here's what I mean: he's had 209 throws that deep while the next closest is Romo at 467. When he does do it though, his average is an incredible 9.2, which is only eclipsed by Romo's 9.5. Palmer has an incredible 69% completion percentage at that depth and beyond.

Last year Palmer was again ranked 4th among QB's in depth of throw completion percentage. 9.2 average depth, which again wiped everyone out but Romo at 9.5. His completion percentage? Again, 69%.

Palmer is deadly in the mid-to-long game, and destructive in the short game. He's accurate in all phases and can dink and dunk to get scores if that's all they're giving us. He's a complete QB and it's too bad--and I mean really a shame, imagine what he imagined himself being out of college--that he's been hampered by serious, and I mean career ending injuries.

It's a shame, but he doesn't have a noodle arm. You don't lose that with age, he can still chuck it with accuracy, we just need to keep him upright and healthy.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/02/23/2014-depth-adjusted-completion-percentage/

Look closely at that article again, buddy. Drew Stanton and others exceeded Palmers average depth of target--sometimes by significant margins. Those stats don't mean what you seem to think they do.

 

[daves]

Post more often!

Thanks! I generally lurk, but occasionally, when i have the time, a topic spurs me to do a little research and post some info.

screw that long-haired hippy!

YOUR DEAD!!!!

...dbs

 

[daves]

Look closely at that article again, buddy. Drew Stanton and others exceeded Palmers average depth of target--sometimes by significant margins. Those stats don't mean what you seem to think they do.

It shows that Palmer was ranked 13th of 43 QBs in "Average Depth of Target". "Noodle Arms" Lindley and Stanton were ranked #1 and #2 on the same list. (Sadly, Lindley also had the worst aDOT-adjusted completion percentage in the league by a huge margin in both 2012 and 2014.)

No doubt Lindley's number is influenced by the facts that (a) the Cardinals have trailed on the scoreboard most of the time he's been in games, (b) he has no accuracy or touch on shorter throws, and (c) with every throw being a potential interception, at least deep balls have a greater ability to help and less ability to harm the team's chances of winning.

Some of the above factors apply to Stanton, to a much lesser extent. Interestingly, most of the top QBs on the list, ranked by aDOT, are currently backups. Lindley, Stanton, combo of Glennon/McCown, Hoyer, and Whitehurst take up the top 6 spots, with Locker and Vick making it 8 of the top 10. Filtering out backups, the list reads:
1. Foles
2. Newton
3. Romo
4. Kaepernick
5. Palmer
6. Flacco
7. Luck
8. Manning
9. Roethlisberger
10. Rivers

That's a pretty good list of accurate and mostly strong-armed QBs. No "Noodle Arms" there!

As an aside... not the least bit surprisingly, the top 5 passers in the aDOT-adjusted completion percentage category since 2007 (with over 1000 "aimed throws") are Rogers, Brees, Warner, Manning, and Rivers, while the worst of all time is none other than Scud!

...dbs

 

[SissyBoyFloyd]

That is really good and important info to have. The thing I would notice as a coach or GM is the drops. Luck needs better receivers to get over the hump.

Russell Wilson likes to throw the ball away rather than take a loss or throw a pass into coverage. Smart ball control QB.

Easy to see why McCown had on off year last year. Either rotten blocking or he held the ball too long. The former is probably the case.

Brees is so good its scary. Too bad he played in the Brady/Manning era. Typical bad luck that Chargers ever let him go, although was probably the best choice at the time under the circumstances.

P Manning was not hit in motion once last year, and thus had the fewest throw aways. Give your QB protection and he could be successful. Funny how that works.

 

[Catfish]

Back in the '70s, the Steelers came up with a laser armed qb named Terry Bradshaw. Could Logan Thomas be the Cards Terry Bradshaw------there ARE many similarities between the two, and Thomas has had a year and a half to learn BA's offense. Maybe now that the wraps are due to come off Thomas------we will see him begin to command a huddle and take over a leadership position on the offensive side of the ball. One thing is for certain-------he is NOT a noodle arm------and the likelyhood of any Cards receivers outrunning his passes is very unlikely. He might just be that guy who can take the top of a defense and start collecting in the form of long TD passes. After all, he did just that in the one game where he played and was a factor.

 

[40yearfan]

Back in the '70s, the Steelers came up with a laser armed qb named Terry Bradshaw. Could Logan Thomas be the Cards Terry Bradshaw------there ARE many similarities between the two, and Thomas has had a year and a half to learn BA's offense. Maybe now that the wraps are due to come off Thomas------we will see him begin to command a huddle and take over a leadership position on the offensive side of the ball. One thing is for certain-------he is NOT a noodle arm------and the likelyhood of any Cards receivers outrunning his passes is very unlikely. He might just be that guy who can take the top of a defense and start collecting in the form of long TD passes. After all, he did just that in the one game where he played and was a factor.

Wow!!! If he turns out to be as good as Bradshaw, I'll gladly kiss your ring.

 

[cardncubfan]

Back in the '70s, the Steelers came up with a laser armed qb named Terry Bradshaw. Could Logan Thomas be the Cards Terry Bradshaw------there ARE many similarities between the two, and Thomas has had a year and a half to learn BA's offense. Maybe now that the wraps are due to come off Thomas------we will see him begin to command a huddle and take over a leadership position on the offensive side of the ball. One thing is for certain-------he is NOT a noodle arm------and the likelyhood of any Cards receivers outrunning his passes is very unlikely. He might just be that guy who can take the top of a defense and start collecting in the form of long TD passes. After all, he did just that in the one game where he played and was a factor.

Not really. He had one ill advised pass that the receiver made the plays necessary to take it to the house.

 

[BigRedRage]

Not really. He had one ill advised pass that the receiver made the plays necessary to take it to the house.

it was ellington, a catch that was highly unlikely to make and no one over the top once he caught it.