One slight correction in case anyone uses it in as part of an investment calculation. Linkedin is owned by Microsoft, not Salesforce. They bought them back in 2016.
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Not Investment Advice
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Jesus. I've had that "fact" in my mind for years. Thanks.
elindholm
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JNJ looks overbought to me and that kind of staple (KMB, UL, PG) just hasn't been doing well at all these days. I'm more into the food/drink staples like K and KO, both of which are up YTD.
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I want PEP so bad, but it just keeps climbing.
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Are mortgage lenders a value play? Rising rates have crushed the refi business. The largest home lender Rocket Mortgage (RKT) is down nearly 60% from its all time high. The general thought is that rates will keep going up, but a recession could easily force rates back down and you can't ignore the fact that our government needs rates to be low in order to keep deficit spending and to be able refinance our existing debt at manageable rates. I haven't looked at the numbers for any lenders, but it could be an opportunity down the road.
At some point, the big pivot in the mortgage industry will have to be reverse mortgages. IMO. If demand dries up for any amount of significant time, it will force the issue for many who still have a decent amount of equity from long term ownership. Mostly the elderly. Of course, in any event of a prolonged crisis or downturn.
The big pivot will be new home purchases and equity loans. Refinances are cyclical.
In event of significant economic downturn?
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HELOCS, I agree assuming home prices don't fall significantly. I'm not sure we have supply for new home purchases to drive origination.
Well, sure, I guess I do not keep my "what if the bottoms falls out of everything" glasses on very often.
The current reasoning for the massive drop in the mortgage industry is because the REFI boom is over and the current pivot is to equity loans and new home purchases is all I was getting at.
elindholm
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In this little region of the financial map, I prefer Business Development Companies, because they have to return most of their profits as dividends in order to enjoy certain tax advantages. ARCC has done well for me, +9.6% over the past year and a 7.7% trailing dividend on top of that.
Personally I'm weary of anything in that sector and won't direct buy it. I'm going to be shocked if we don't hit a recession in the next year and when that happens I think the housing bubble is going to explode. If I'm right it's not going to be pretty but we'll have a good buying opportunity then.
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It's hard to invest in segments that are unloved, but that's part of value investing. I tend to think it's too early as well, but it's something I will watch and take a closer look.
elindholm
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I'm spread thin over 17 mutual funds, and the only one that's measurably up over the past 60 days is RRRAX, which does REITs. So I'm inclined to view that sector somewhat generously. RKT is considered a financial rather than a real estate stock, but it's in one of those gray areas. If I hadn't already taken a huge hit on OPEN, I'd give RKT a careful look.
Robinhood now allows trading prior to the market open and for two hours after the market closes. My window for poor decision making just grew by 50%.
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Do they allow market orders or do they force limit orders?
I placed a market order for 24% down NFLX shares
The Future of Investing is 24/7 — Under the Hood
We’re working towards 24/7 investing, starting with new extended hours from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. ET
blog.robinhood.com
like I said, more hours for bad decisions lolI placed a market order for 24% down NFLX shares
The Future of Investing is 24/7 — Under the Hood
We’re working towards 24/7 investing, starting with new extended hours from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. ET
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I know we have some TSLA believers in here who have made a lot of money investing in TSLA. I thought it would be fun to run my analysis. Assuming a blistering 40% annual growth rate over the next 5 years, I calculated a target price of $200. I'd likely never assume such a high growth rate as that would give TSLA $300B in revenue in 2026. For comparison, AAPL had $365B in revenue in 2021. GOOG had $257B, MSFT had $168B, and AMZN had $470B.
I'd never short TSLA or Musk, but it's only a matter of time before we see a FB/NFLX-like re-pricing or worse for TSLA. It's so overvalued that it couldn't possibly grow into its extreme valuation even if you used the most optimistic projections.
I'd never short TSLA or Musk, but it's only a matter of time before we see a FB/NFLX-like re-pricing or worse for TSLA. It's so overvalued that it couldn't possibly grow into its extreme valuation even if you used the most optimistic projections.
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check out @garyblack00 on twitter
First megapack factory is complete, projection is something like 40b revenue annually on top of cars, solar and upcoming AI projects. Semi, cybertruck and roadster in the future to pile on. two new giga factories went online last month, production increases q over q. By 2024 production should be more than doubled with the new factories at full steam. Probably less time than that.
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All of that stuff is great, but that doesn't justify any price.
I projected revenue of $300B in 5 years (2026) in my analysis
Here are revenue projections from Finbox. They aren't projecting $300B until 2031.
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Even if I juice cash flow as a percentage of revenue to 10% and lower my expected return to 7.5%, I still only get a share price of $480.
To be fair, my model also shows AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG as significantly overvalued as well, and I hold those stocks, but they are nowhere near the overvaluation of TSLA currently is according to my model.
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I calculated a fair value of MSFT at $250-260, but for a margin of safety and my required rate of return of 10%, my target price is $175 so I won't be buying any time soon. GOOG is much closer to my target price.
struggling with myself to not buy the tsla dip. so tempting. already overweight. if it somehow miraculously gets to 700....I'm going all in.
