Not Investment Advice

[elindholm]

I looked at DIS again this morning and updated my projections with recent analyst forecasts. I've lowered my target price to sub $85 before I take another serious look. I think the negative sentiment surrounding streaming and a possible/likely recession is impacting growth forecasts. I may miss out on a good opportunity at its current price, but their numbers have been all over the place these past several years with huge acquisitions and Covid. It's hard to get a baseline to get confident cash flow estimates for the next 5 years. I'll continue to watch it though.

NFLX is one of my few holdings that's down today, so it looks like you're making the correct decision by waiting.

 

[Folster]

I added a few more shares to my MMM position. It's up to 2.5% of my main retail account. It got down below 130 so I added to it. It seems to have a pretty decent floor and is not as volatile as some of my other positions and I believe it to be undervalued.

 

[BigRedRage]

today was a nice breather, eh? Does that mean huge red candles tomorrow? lol

 

[BigRedRage]

Four of the top 6 most made in America cars are Tesla's

https://www.cars.com/american-made-index/

 

[dscher]

today was a nice breather, eh? Does that mean huge red candles tomorrow? lol

Maybe. Still in the throws of big volatility and downside trend..

 

[elindholm]

today was a nice breather, eh? Does that mean huge red candles tomorrow? lol

Yep, and I can even tell you exactly which stocks to short, if you have a way of putting the order in overnight.

 

[BigRedRage]

Tell me not to buy Shopify tomorrow while it's down 75% since November and has a stock split coming with strong fundamentals

when I posted vs where we are

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[BigRedRage]

red candles starting to be in the rear view on multiple watchlists...

 

[Folster]

when I posted vs where we are

You must be registered for see images attach

Yeah it was $391 on June 8th, the day you were considering buying. But I would've been right regardless of the company during that timeframe.

 

[Devilmaycare]

red candles starting to be in the rear view on multiple watchlists...

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[BigRedRage]

Yeah it was $391 on June 8th, the day you were considering buying. But I would've been right regardless of the company during that timeframe.

Who knows in today's environment, just thought it was interesting to look at

 

[Folster]

Anybody have thoughts about the Gap (GPS)? I've always like Old Navy. I've kept my eye on it as a deep value play and it's nearing a target price I calculated to trigger a 2nd look.

I'll have to take a deeper look at the company to see how their brands are doing. Last I checked Old Navy and their woman's brand Athleta were the stores with growth while Gap and Banana Republic were floundering. A while back, they explored spinning off Old Navy, but decided against it. I read they recently messed up with a "inclusive" in-store sizing strategy and ordered way too much big stuff and not enough regular sizes.

Anyway I was looking at a massive margin of safety by projecting no revenue growth and a required return of 20% a year. It was in the $8 target range and we are near that now, but I'll need to update my numbers and read their annual report.

It's not sexy but could be a cigar butt that has a puff or two left.

 

[Folster]

GOOG is flirting with my price target again. $105 which was $2100 before the split. They are reporting today and sentiment for advertising is pessimistic after SNAP reported. If they miss, they could fall further, but a strong report could give them a bounce. I'm already at my max exposure for GOOG so it would have to really take a dive for me to buy more.

 

[dscher]

GOOG is flirting with price target again. $105 which was $2100 before the split. They ate reporting today and sentiment for advertising is pessimistic after SNAP reported. If they miss, they could fall further, but a strong report could give them a bounce. I'm already at my max exposure for GOOG so it would have to really take a dive for me to buy more.

Still buying right before/into a recession?

Since you are a DCF/Buffett disciple, do you pay attention to any of his macro to fit your investment decisions? Like market cap/GDP ratios, etc.

 

[Folster]

Still buying right before/into a recession?

Since you are a DCF/Buffett disciple, do you pay attention to any of his macro to fit your investment decisions? Like market cap/GDP ratios, etc.

You haven't been buying for years in expectation of a recession. When did you largely pull out of the market? It was well before the Covid. Over the past 20-30 years the market has returned a positive return 75-80% of the time. I like those odds especially when the market is already 20-30% off its highs. Bottoms are difficult to call, same as tops as you know.

DCF modeling allows me to make conservative projections for growth that hopefully account for more bearish economic outlooks.

I haven't been able to find a TA who could call a bottom until it was well past.

 

[dscher]

You haven't been buying for years in expectation of a recession. When did you largely pull out of the market? It was well before the Covid. Over the past 20-30 years the market has returned a positive return 75-80% of the time. I like those odds especially when the market is already 20-30% of its highs. Bottoms are difficult to call, same as tops as you know.

DCF modeling allows me to make conservative projections for growth that hopefully account for more bearish economic outlooks.

No need to take offense man. I was legitimately asking if you use things like market cap/GDP ratios like Buffett does to equate market risk/sentiment for his DCF models and Ben Graham style value investing. He's been on record many times that he won't buy when others are greedy. Outside of some occidental, I haven't heard much buying going on there on the buying side from him and his team.. Probably for the same reason I stated (economic indicators). The ratios are completely bonkers.

I haven't been able to find a TA who could call a bottom until it was well past.

Nor have you likely looked for any... I have a few on my site alone who have called the COVID bottom and this December top. Just for reference. But yes, long term tops and bottoms aren't easy for any TA or fundamental technician. I've just learned in my experience that it's not about being bearish or bullish. It's about being on the right side of the market. Losing that bias that is, most times, so hard to let go.

 

[BigRedRage]

I just bought more recently and probably would again this month if I was not paying $8500 for an HVAC. At this point I am just averaging down on stocks I was long term bullish on anyway.

 

[elindholm]

GOOG is flirting with price target again. $105 which was $2100 before the split. They ate reporting today and sentiment for advertising is pessimistic after SNAP reported. If they miss, they could fall further, but a strong report could give them a bounce. I'm already at my max exposure for GOOG so it would have to really take a dive for me to buy more.

I think GOOG/L is a buy at this point, and I'm considering adding a little more, even though I'm in the same boat as you in that it would violate my diversification principles. It seems inevitable that it's going to be a dominant force for a long time. I wouldn't commit to a price target, but I think it's pretty well protected against getting much lower.

 

[Folster]

I just bought more recently and probably would again this month if I was not paying $8500 for an HVAC. At this point I am just averaging down on stocks I was long term bullish on anyway.

I feel you. We had a water main leak under our driveway last week. $4500 later.

 

[Folster]

No need to take offense man. I was legitimately asking if you use things like market cap/GDP ratios like Buffett does to equate market risk/sentiment for his DCF models and Ben Graham style value investing. He's been on record many times that he won't buy when others are greedy. Outside of some occidental, I haven't heard much buying going on there on the buying side from him and his team.. Probably for the same reason I stated (economic indicators). The ratios are completely bonkers.


Nor have you likely looked for any... I have a few on my site alone who have called the COVID bottom and this December top. Just for reference. But yes, long term tops and bottoms aren't easy for any TA or fundamental technician. I've just learned in my experience that it's not about being bearish or bullish. It's about being on the right side of the market. Losing that bias that is, most times, so hard to let go.

Sorry for the snippy response. I popped a quick look and response while dealing with some annoying clients.

 

[dscher]

Sorry for the snippy response. I popped a quick look and response while dealing with some annoying clients.

No worries dude. I could only imagine what you're dealing with in this market environment at work...

 

[BigRedRage]

I feel you. We had a water main leak under our driveway last week. $4500 later.

Ouch!

This is my 2nd HVAC at the new house this year

 

[Yuma]

So my question is this, with the DOW down more or less 18 t0 19 percent last I looked, why not buy the cheapest per share blue chips you can get, and max out on number of shares your dollar can get, then just wait for the market to rise? Instead of picking high value stocks like TSLA, etc. which are higher priced stocks.

 

[Folster]

So my question is this, with the DOW down more or less 18 t0 19 percent last I looked, why not buy the cheapest per share blue chips you can get, and max out on number of shares your dollar can get, then just wait for the market to rise? Instead of picking high value stocks like TSLA, etc. which are higher priced stocks.

I think I know what you are getting at, but "cheapest per share" isn't a relevant metric when it comes to stock valuations because companies can have significantly different numbers of outstanding shares. If company A is valued at $100 with 10 outstanding shares, each share is worth $10. If company B has the same $100 valuation with 50 outstanding shares, each share is worth $2. The pies are the same size but they have a different number of slices.

What you're proposing is to buy the undervalued companies in the DOW. Sounds simple enough. The question is, how do you determine if a company is undervalued? There are a million ways to quantify value from simple ratios to complex models, but none of them can be relied on with any real confidence especially when you consider short term irrationality in the market.

This is why indexing is so appealing, and why I only index in my retirement accounts. Don't waste time searching for the needle, buy the haystack. Unless you find it enjoyable to dig through the haystack like many of us do.

 

[Folster]

I know we've talked a bit about SHOP on here. I just saw it has completely round tripped. It's now at or below pandemic lows at this point.

The 10-1 stock split threw me off for a second, but it's down to $31.50 which equals $315 pre split. I went back and looked at my valuation and even under bullish projections I was getting sub $200 or $20 post split. Down 80% since it's November 2021 high. That's dot.com level busting. Incredible.

If it weren't for the MAGA stocks and their huge market caps, the Nasdaq would have been crushed again IMO.