elindholm
edited for content
NFLX is one of my few holdings that's down today, so it looks like you're making the correct decision by waiting.
Last edited:
Not Investment Advice
- Thread starter Folster
- Start date
NFLX is one of my few holdings that's down today, so it looks like you're making the correct decision by waiting.
OP
OP
Folster
ASFN Icon
- Joined
- Jun 23, 2005
- Posts
- 16,935
- Reaction score
- 7,579
I added a few more shares to my MMM position. It's up to 2.5% of my main retail account. It got down below 130 so I added to it. It seems to have a pretty decent floor and is not as volatile as some of my other positions and I believe it to be undervalued.
today was a nice breather, eh? Does that mean huge red candles tomorrow? lol
Maybe. Still in the throws of big volatility and downside trend..
elindholm
edited for content
Yep, and I can even tell you exactly which stocks to short, if you have a way of putting the order in overnight.
red candles starting to be in the rear view on multiple watchlists...
OP
OP
Folster
ASFN Icon
- Joined
- Jun 23, 2005
- Posts
- 16,935
- Reaction score
- 7,579
Yeah it was $391 on June 8th, the day you were considering buying. But I would've been right regardless of the company during that timeframe.
Who knows in today's environment, just thought it was interesting to look at
OP
OP
Folster
ASFN Icon
- Joined
- Jun 23, 2005
- Posts
- 16,935
- Reaction score
- 7,579
Anybody have thoughts about the Gap (GPS)? I've always like Old Navy. I've kept my eye on it as a deep value play and it's nearing a target price I calculated to trigger a 2nd look.
I'll have to take a deeper look at the company to see how their brands are doing. Last I checked Old Navy and their woman's brand Athleta were the stores with growth while Gap and Banana Republic were floundering. A while back, they explored spinning off Old Navy, but decided against it. I read they recently messed up with a "inclusive" in-store sizing strategy and ordered way too much big stuff and not enough regular sizes.
Anyway I was looking at a massive margin of safety by projecting no revenue growth and a required return of 20% a year. It was in the $8 target range and we are near that now, but I'll need to update my numbers and read their annual report.
It's not sexy but could be a cigar butt that has a puff or two left.
I'll have to take a deeper look at the company to see how their brands are doing. Last I checked Old Navy and their woman's brand Athleta were the stores with growth while Gap and Banana Republic were floundering. A while back, they explored spinning off Old Navy, but decided against it. I read they recently messed up with a "inclusive" in-store sizing strategy and ordered way too much big stuff and not enough regular sizes.
Anyway I was looking at a massive margin of safety by projecting no revenue growth and a required return of 20% a year. It was in the $8 target range and we are near that now, but I'll need to update my numbers and read their annual report.
It's not sexy but could be a cigar butt that has a puff or two left.
OP
OP
Folster
ASFN Icon
- Joined
- Jun 23, 2005
- Posts
- 16,935
- Reaction score
- 7,579
GOOG is flirting with my price target again. $105 which was $2100 before the split. They are reporting today and sentiment for advertising is pessimistic after SNAP reported. If they miss, they could fall further, but a strong report could give them a bounce. I'm already at my max exposure for GOOG so it would have to really take a dive for me to buy more.
Last edited:
Still buying right before/into a recession?
Since you are a DCF/Buffett disciple, do you pay attention to any of his macro to fit your investment decisions? Like market cap/GDP ratios, etc.
OP
OP
Folster
ASFN Icon
- Joined
- Jun 23, 2005
- Posts
- 16,935
- Reaction score
- 7,579
You haven't been buying for years in expectation of a recession. When did you largely pull out of the market? It was well before the Covid. Over the past 20-30 years the market has returned a positive return 75-80% of the time. I like those odds especially when the market is already 20-30% off its highs. Bottoms are difficult to call, same as tops as you know.
DCF modeling allows me to make conservative projections for growth that hopefully account for more bearish economic outlooks.
I haven't been able to find a TA who could call a bottom until it was well past.
Last edited:
No need to take offense man. I was legitimately asking if you use things like market cap/GDP ratios like Buffett does to equate market risk/sentiment for his DCF models and Ben Graham style value investing. He's been on record many times that he won't buy when others are greedy. Outside of some occidental, I haven't heard much buying going on there on the buying side from him and his team.. Probably for the same reason I stated (economic indicators). The ratios are completely bonkers.
Nor have you likely looked for any...
I have a few on my site alone who have called the COVID bottom and this December top. Just for reference. But yes, long term tops and bottoms aren't easy for any TA or fundamental technician. I've just learned in my experience that it's not about being bearish or bullish. It's about being on the right side of the market. Losing that bias that is, most times, so hard to let go.
I just bought more recently and probably would again this month if I was not paying $8500 for an HVAC. At this point I am just averaging down on stocks I was long term bullish on anyway.
elindholm
edited for content
I think GOOG/L is a buy at this point, and I'm considering adding a little more, even though I'm in the same boat as you in that it would violate my diversification principles. It seems inevitable that it's going to be a dominant force for a long time. I wouldn't commit to a price target, but I think it's pretty well protected against getting much lower.
OP
OP
Folster
ASFN Icon
- Joined
- Jun 23, 2005
- Posts
- 16,935
- Reaction score
- 7,579
I feel you. We had a water main leak under our driveway last week. $4500 later.
OP
OP
Folster
ASFN Icon
- Joined
- Jun 23, 2005
- Posts
- 16,935
- Reaction score
- 7,579
No need to take offense man. I was legitimately asking if you use things like market cap/GDP ratios like Buffett does to equate market risk/sentiment for his DCF models and Ben Graham style value investing. He's been on record many times that he won't buy when others are greedy. Outside of some occidental, I haven't heard much buying going on there on the buying side from him and his team.. Probably for the same reason I stated (economic indicators). The ratios are completely bonkers.
Nor have you likely looked for any...
Sorry for the snippy response. I popped a quick look and response while dealing with some annoying clients.
No worries dude. I could only imagine what you're dealing with in this market environment at work...
Yuma
Suns are my Kryptonite!
So my question is this, with the DOW down more or less 18 t0 19 percent last I looked, why not buy the cheapest per share blue chips you can get, and max out on number of shares your dollar can get, then just wait for the market to rise? Instead of picking high value stocks like TSLA, etc. which are higher priced stocks.
OP
OP
Folster
ASFN Icon
- Joined
- Jun 23, 2005
- Posts
- 16,935
- Reaction score
- 7,579
I think I know what you are getting at, but "cheapest per share" isn't a relevant metric when it comes to stock valuations because companies can have significantly different numbers of outstanding shares. If company A is valued at $100 with 10 outstanding shares, each share is worth $10. If company B has the same $100 valuation with 50 outstanding shares, each share is worth $2. The pies are the same size but they have a different number of slices.
What you're proposing is to buy the undervalued companies in the DOW. Sounds simple enough. The question is, how do you determine if a company is undervalued? There are a million ways to quantify value from simple ratios to complex models, but none of them can be relied on with any real confidence especially when you consider short term irrationality in the market.
This is why indexing is so appealing, and why I only index in my retirement accounts. Don't waste time searching for the needle, buy the haystack. Unless you find it enjoyable to dig through the haystack like many of us do.
OP
OP
Folster
ASFN Icon
- Joined
- Jun 23, 2005
- Posts
- 16,935
- Reaction score
- 7,579
I know we've talked a bit about SHOP on here. I just saw it has completely round tripped. It's now at or below pandemic lows at this point.
The 10-1 stock split threw me off for a second, but it's down to $31.50 which equals $315 pre split. I went back and looked at my valuation and even under bullish projections I was getting sub $200 or $20 post split. Down 80% since it's November 2021 high. That's dot.com level busting. Incredible.
If it weren't for the MAGA stocks and their huge market caps, the Nasdaq would have been crushed again IMO.
The 10-1 stock split threw me off for a second, but it's down to $31.50 which equals $315 pre split. I went back and looked at my valuation and even under bullish projections I was getting sub $200 or $20 post split. Down 80% since it's November 2021 high. That's dot.com level busting. Incredible.
If it weren't for the MAGA stocks and their huge market caps, the Nasdaq would have been crushed again IMO.
