Not Investment Advice

[Yuma]

Just moved 30% of my portfolio into NT Collective Aggregate Bond Index Fund. That helps keep a bit "safe" from a market melt down.

 

[Devilmaycare]

What do you guys think of using an ETF with a stop loss over an index fund? I had the idea a couple nights ago when on vacation. In my IRAs I have a decent portion of it sitting in S&P index funds. So the idea is to switch those over to an S&P 500 ETF and then throw a stop loss on it. It seems rational but I'm not sure if I'm missing something. Thoughts?

 

[Russ Smith]

Better to be lucky than good. A friend works at Super Micro, SMCI, she has some options and a few months ago was asking me how to sell them because she was about to vest I think 20%. When she started they were in the 40's and the stock was now about 220. She said she was going to sell so I didn't ask about it and didn't hear from her for a couple of months. Next time I heard from her she said I never sold my stock I thought you were going to help me and you didn't so I didn't do anything I hope I didn't miss out. And voila it's over 300 now, 330 after hours!

The bad thing is she still says she can't figure out how to sell it in etrade. Should be straight forward find out which shares are vested and just do a sell at market to cover but she insists she can't do it and it's difficult for me to get on a call with her during the day since I'm in week 2 of a new job. But she made an additional 100 bucks a share by not selling before just because she couldn't figure out how to sell.

 

[dscher]

What do you guys think of using an ETF with a stop loss over an index fund? I had the idea a couple nights ago when on vacation. In my IRAs I have a decent portion of it sitting in S&P index funds. So the idea is to switch those over to an S&P 500 ETF and then throw a stop loss on it. It seems rational but I'm not sure if I'm missing something. Thoughts?

Anything that gives you more flexibility like a very liquid ETF product like the SPY is a good thing IMO. Expense ratios are in the same ballpark as well I believe.. but, like any investor/trader, it's all about comfort level.

 

[elindholm]

What do you guys think of using an ETF with a stop loss over an index fund? I had the idea a couple nights ago when on vacation. In my IRAs I have a decent portion of it sitting in S&P index funds. So the idea is to switch those over to an S&P 500 ETF and then throw a stop loss on it. It seems rational but I'm not sure if I'm missing something. Thoughts?

It seems like a decent idea, but what's your time horizon? If it's long, you have to figure out when and how to get back in once your stop loss is triggered. (If you buy back in for more than your limit price, you'll be worse off than if you'd let it ride through the bottom.) If it's short, maybe you should cash out half of it now, and that's your backstop. If you've figured out that you can tolerate losing x% but no more, I'd make sure that the (100-x)% is secure, and then you have the freedom to play with the rest.

 

[Yuma]

Better to be lucky than good. A friend works at Super Micro, SMCI, she has some options and a few months ago was asking me how to sell them because she was about to vest I think 20%. When she started they were in the 40's and the stock was now about 220. She said she was going to sell so I didn't ask about it and didn't hear from her for a couple of months. Next time I heard from her she said I never sold my stock I thought you were going to help me and you didn't so I didn't do anything I hope I didn't miss out. And voila it's over 300 now, 330 after hours!

The bad thing is she still says she can't figure out how to sell it in etrade. Should be straight forward find out which shares are vested and just do a sell at market to cover but she insists she can't do it and it's difficult for me to get on a call with her during the day since I'm in week 2 of a new job. But she made an additional 100 bucks a share by not selling before just because she couldn't figure out how to sell.

Is there a 1-800 number for ETrade where she can call and get a brokered trade? It would cost some bucks, but it sounds like the funds she would make would be worth it.

"Want to contact us? Give us a call at (800) 387-2331. You can also contact an E*TRADE customer service representative in person or online via live chat."

 

[elindholm]

The bad thing is she still says she can't figure out how to sell it in etrade. Should be straight forward find out which shares are vested and just do a sell at market to cover but she insists she can't do it and it's difficult for me to get on a call with her during the day since I'm in week 2 of a new job. But she made an additional 100 bucks a share by not selling before just because she couldn't figure out how to sell.

Has she tried, you know, asking E*Trade? I've found their customer service to be good, although not at the level of Fidelity's.

 

[Russ Smith]

Is there a 1-800 number for ETrade where she can call and get a brokered trade? It would cost some bucks, but it sounds like the funds she would make would be worth it.

"Want to contact us? Give us a call at (800) 387-2331. You can also contact an E*TRADE customer service representative in person or online via live chat."

Yeah I suggested that too but she would prefer to see it herself so she understands exactly what it is.

But thanks it is a good idea

 

[Folster]

What do you guys think of using an ETF with a stop loss over an index fund? I had the idea a couple nights ago when on vacation. In my IRAs I have a decent portion of it sitting in S&P index funds. So the idea is to switch those over to an S&P 500 ETF and then throw a stop loss on it. It seems rational but I'm not sure if I'm missing something. Thoughts?

Stop losses pose some interesting psychological questions.

If you own XYZ at 100 and are willing to sell at 90, why not just sell at 100? Obviously you think it can go higher but want protection for the potential that it can fall. A % trailing stop loss can be beneficial in a scenario where the market continues to go up as your stop will rise with it.

But ultimately, I'm not a fan of stop losses on a broad, diversified index like the S&P 500. It seems like a good way to lock in a 10-15% loss, and I'm sure any stop loss I would set would be right at the bottom to get triggered and then bounce right back leaving me out of the market.

I think they are more relevant with individual stocks that you think have good upside, but are willing to cut your losses at 10-15% if it doesn't materialize. A trailing stop on a rising speculative play that is on a run could be useful too.

 

[elindholm]

Stop losses pose some interesting psychological questions.

If you own XYZ at 100 and are willing to sell at 90, why not just sell at 100? Obviously you think it can go higher but want protection for the potential that it can fall. A % trailing stop loss can be beneficial in a scenario where the market continues to go up as your stop will rise with it.

But ultimately, I'm not a fan of stop losses on a broad, diversified index like the S&P 500. It seems like a good way to lock in a 10-15% loss, and I'm sure any stop loss I would set would be right at the bottom to get triggered and then bounce right back leaving me out of the market.

I think they are more relevant with individual stocks that you have think have good upside, but are willing to cut your losses at 10-15% if it doesn't materialize. A trailing stop on a rising speculative play that is on a run could be useful too.

Good points. I've used trailing stop losses a couple of times on individual stocks, where it has felt like time to get out, but I wanted to go ahead and ride the wave a bit more if I could.

I'm pretty high-maintenance with my individual stocks. I don't pretend to have any special insight, but I have an evolving perspective on what the good bets are. I try to buy in at a good number, but usually sell based on what feels like the right time, rather than the right price.

An unusual challenge for me right now is AMAT, which I had intended to hold long-term but it sure looks overbought right now. If it somehow gets to 160, I might have to cash it in, then wait for it to come back down.

With mutual funds, I'm much more in the mode of "set it and forget it." That said, I do keep an eye on balances between aggressive and conservative funds, as well as my time horizon. I do a bit of rebalancing once or twice a year, in my retirement accounts as well as my regular investment ones.

 

[Yuma]

Checked on my transaction, and my 30% bond diversification from a 100% S&P 500, and my total return went UP! I was expecting it to go down, but for just one day, it went over 20% for the year. I totally don't expect that to keep pace.

 

[dscher]

Checked on my transaction, and my 30% bond diversification from a 100% S&P 500, and my total return went UP! I was expecting it to go down, but for just one day, it went over 20% for the year. I totally don't expect that to keep pace.

Glad you got some diversification in there!

 

[Superbone]

Nice thread. I just found it. My biggest mistakes in investing came when I listened to outside sources, mostly friends, and tried to score big with recommended individual stocks. I do best when sticking to my diversified index funds, time in market, non-market timing investing style.

 

[Folster]

Nice thread. I just found it. My biggest mistakes in investing came when I listened to outside sources, mostly friends, and tried to score big with recommended individual stocks.

The industry calls this dumb money, no offense to you or your friends. I've thrown a fair amount of dumb money into individual stocks. When random retail investors are hyping a stock, it's usually a sign to sell or stay away. But we've seen hype trains run for a long time which typically makes those retail traders get a false sense of their investing abilities.

 

[dscher]

The industry calls this dumb money, no offense to you or your friends. I've thrown a fair amount of dumb money into individual stocks. When random retail investors are hyping a stock, it's usually a sign to sell or stay away. But we've seen hype trains run for a long time which typically makes those retail traders get a false sense of their investing abilities.

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[Russ Smith]

Better to be lucky than good. A friend works at Super Micro, SMCI, she has some options and a few months ago was asking me how to sell them because she was about to vest I think 20%. When she started they were in the 40's and the stock was now about 220. She said she was going to sell so I didn't ask about it and didn't hear from her for a couple of months. Next time I heard from her she said I never sold my stock I thought you were going to help me and you didn't so I didn't do anything I hope I didn't miss out. And voila it's over 300 now, 330 after hours!

The bad thing is she still says she can't figure out how to sell it in etrade. Should be straight forward find out which shares are vested and just do a sell at market to cover but she insists she can't do it and it's difficult for me to get on a call with her during the day since I'm in week 2 of a new job. But she made an additional 100 bucks a share by not selling before just because she couldn't figure out how to sell.

This is now NOT going well. Turns out SMCI has some crazy restrictive selling window policy for ALL employees. The window opens friday morning, public knowledge so I'm not disclosing anything inside. The stock closed at almost 350 yesterday, they announced earnings after hours, beat earnings, beat revenue, announced a higher forecast than predicted but something in their forecast spooked the market, it's at 295 in premarket right now.

My assumption is they wanted a higher forecast, plus the market knows all the employees who own stock will be selling on Friday so the sell off is in anticipation of that? So even if she can sell Friday morning at 300 she'll make about 250 a share I figure but still sucks that she couldn't sell at the higher price but I guess that's the rules.

So basically everyone she works with will be online or on the phone Fri at 6:30 trying to sell

 

[Russ Smith]

This is now NOT going well. Turns out SMCI has some crazy restrictive selling window policy for ALL employees. The window opens friday morning, public knowledge so I'm not disclosing anything inside. The stock closed at almost 350 yesterday, they announced earnings after hours, beat earnings, beat revenue, announced a higher forecast than predicted but something in their forecast spooked the market, it's at 295 in premarket right now.

My assumption is they wanted a higher forecast, plus the market knows all the employees who own stock will be selling on Friday so the sell off is in anticipation of that? So even if she can sell Friday morning at 300 she'll make about 250 a share I figure but still sucks that she couldn't sell at the higher price but I guess that's the rules.

So basically everyone she works with will be online or on the phone Fri at 6:30 trying to sell

Absolutely tanked from 347 yesterday to 265 today on not really bad news. Just nuts. The good news is she doesn't have a ton of shares so her loss is ONLY a couple of thousand and she couldn't sell until Friday anyways.

She has RSU's which if I understand correctly means they're going to tax her when they vest whether she sells or not so she might as well sell

 

[Devilmaycare]

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[Folster]

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Is that his Q2 13F filing?

 

[Devilmaycare]

Is that his Q2 13F filing?

Yeah, it looks like it's from the 6/30 filing. Updated the tweet I linked since it was updated to include the S&P PUTs.

https://whalewisdom.com/filer/scion-asset-management-llc#tabholdings_tab_link

 

[dscher]

2008 Big short level betting.. he was off on his last call. See how this one pans out.

 

[Yuma]

I saw today that the Russian Ruble is approaching less than a penny in value! Russia raised its interest rates 3.5% in one day, to prop up the price of the Ruble.

 

[dscher]

Oof. Burry must be on to something...

'Shark Tank' investor Kevin O'Leary says Michael Burry's bet against the S&P 500 is going to be painful, even if he's right eventually

"Big Short" investor Michael Burry made his name betting against the US housing market, but that was a completely different game, O'Leary says.

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[Yuma]

I saw the market on 3 out of 4 major sectors fell below the moving 50 day averages, which normally signals a pull back. That, plus a stock market that had hit 20% returns for S&P 500, and I believe 40% on the Russel 100, that's just common sense too good to be true. You can't expect the S&P 500 to continue a twenty percent rise forever! Imagine inflation if it did!

 

[dscher]

You can't expect the S&P 500 to continue a twenty percent rise forever! Imagine inflation if it did!

This is a very key point that not many are paying close enough attention to IMO. The fed wants to crush inflation by crushing demand. The stock, bond, and property markets are big drivers of inflation in a consumer based economy. Hence, IMO, the fed is basically saying the markets need to pull back...maybe significantly...until they pause and/or cut rates. This will effectively crush demand and inflation.

Don't fight the fed.