Now is a good time to jump into the stock market

[conraddobler]

The problem with this market is a lot of it is a sham, like a rigged casino.

I know it's tempting and probably very profitable to spot patterns and trade them and for the most part it should work.

If you listen on here no one is doing much of what the thing should be about, now it's about technicals and wild swings, a lot LESS about basic value.

Wall Street turns into this if left unchecked long enough, it's outdone itself this time, like that billion dollar bet on the downgrade.

No one makes that bet IMO without knowledge it's going to happen and that goes on ALL THE TIME, IMO.

Not saying you can't tag along but that's what it's become IMO.

 

[D-Dogg]

The problem with this market is a lot of it is a sham, like a rigged casino.

I know it's tempting and probably very profitable to spot patterns and trade them and for the most part it should work.

If you listen on here no one is doing much of what the thing should be about, now it's about technicals and wild swings, a lot LESS about basic value.

Wall Street turns into this if left unchecked long enough, it's outdone itself this time, like that billion dollar bet on the downgrade.

No one makes that bet IMO without knowledge it's going to happen and that goes on ALL THE TIME, IMO.

Not saying you can't tag along but that's what it's become IMO.

That's why I ONLY trade value companies when they are low - I know I could easily get caught in a flash flood and not be able to get out, but if that happens I'm a lot more confident clinging to driftwood that has posted successive growth in key areas, has a lot of cash, a strong market presence and good corporate leadership, than I would a piece of driftwood that was hot for a minute with no fundamental value or long-term growth ability.

And you are right that the market is a total sham - you get what you can out of it, but when you have pre market and after hours announcements of good or bad news, and a small group of people can move on the info while the majority see markets tumble below standing sell limits and get caught holding the bag, well...its worse than a carnival game. When you've got a Plunge Protection Team in place (if that's what you believe the Working Group on Markets truly is) well, the net they are using isn't meant to protect you.

 

[conraddobler]

That's why I ONLY trade value companies when they are low - I know I could easily get caught in a flash flood and not be able to get out, but if that happens I'm a lot more confident clinging to driftwood that has posted successive growth in key areas, has a lot of cash, a strong market presence and good corporate leadership, than I would a piece of driftwood that was hot for a minute with no fundamental value or long-term growth ability.

And you are right that the market is a total sham - you get what you can out of it, but when you have pre market and after hours announcements of good or bad news, and a small group of people can move on the info while the majority see markets tumble below standing sell limits and get caught holding the bag, well...its worse than a carnival game. When you've got a Plunge Protection Team in place (if that's what you believe the Working Group on Markets truly is) well, the net they are using isn't meant to protect you.

Since you can make money on the up and downside and since they're also targeting the bond market, is everyone so sure they don't once in a while pull the rug out to dump bond yields?

I strongly suspect that the PPT works both ways in reality, it's just a theory, no proof of course.

For the record what you're doing sounds very reasonable to me if you get caught owning a solid company that's not bad ever.

There's a million different ways to play this stuff and make money but there's probably more ways to lose money.

Most traders do lose money, most investors over the long haul make money unless you look at Japan and you invested in the top, then good luck see you in about 50 more years to get back to even.

I have a lot of worthless CFC puts as battle scars, most people talk about only their wins, but you learn a lot more from the losers.

Timing is everything, I bet too early, they did a circus act for months and I lost a lot of money before capitulating just before they went under.

Now that ticked me off good.

Course I had some winners in there too, buying ford off the dirt floor was awesome and some puts on some other stocks more than made up for the CFC fiasco but I still remember them most, like Moby Dick that one was.

 

[D-Dogg]

Since you can make money on the up and downside and since they're also targeting the bond market, is everyone so sure they don't once in a while pull the rug out to dump bond yields?

I strongly suspect that the PPT works both ways in reality, it's just a theory, no proof of course.

I buy the theory, completely.

I have a lot of worthless CFC puts as battle scars, most people talk about only their wins, but you learn a lot more from the losers.

GNVC in my portfolio was a learner - it was me going off script completely from strategy, buying an unproven on potential and hope. Then watching its key trial drug get pulled overnight, and losing about 80% before I had the chance to even act. So I keep it in my portfolio to remind me that I don't ever buy companies like that. I don't buy sentiment. I don't buy lottery tickets.

I agree, you learn a ton from the losers - and I'm a freaking quick learner when my ass gets handed to me with a laugh. I'm just happy that it happened when I was still starting to get confident, instead of after a while where I might have brushed it off like a fluke.

I had a good friend lose a ton of his retirement money on WaMu. I also learn by observation, thank goodness.

 

[conraddobler]

I buy the theory, completely.



GNVC in my portfolio was a learner - it was me going off script completely from strategy, buying an unproven on potential and hope. Then watching its key trial drug get pulled overnight, and losing about 80% before I had the chance to even act. So I keep it in my portfolio to remind me that I don't ever buy companies like that. I don't buy sentiment. I don't buy lottery tickets.

I agree, you learn a ton from the losers - and I'm a freaking quick learner when my ass gets handed to me with a laugh. I'm just happy that it happened when I was still starting to get confident, instead of after a while where I might have brushed it off like a fluke.

I had a good friend lose a ton of his retirement money on WaMu. I also learn by observation, thank goodness.

This one is a traders paradise, If you ever get a chance there's a book out there you should read it's a great take on markets, even though it's dated you can use your imagination to understand how he'd operate nowdays.

It's a realy awesome book http://www.fool.com/investing/value...ok-review-quotreminiscences-of-a-stock-o.aspx

I think it's even free on the web I know I read it online.

It'll pretty much tell you all you need to know about how things work.

 

[D-Dogg]

Most traders do lose money, most investors over the long haul make money unless you look at Japan and you invested in the top, then good luck see you in about 50 more years to get back to even.

I've read this line a couple of times, and you know, a hybrid of both is what my philosophy is in a nutshell, and primarily because of the Japan debacle. I'm not really a "trader" and not really an "investor." I have a very few select companies that are sound, that I "rent" for awhile when the rent is low, then either rent elsewhere or sit in cash. Sitting in cash is just fine by me. Then, if the rent is low again, I rent on them once more. The goal is to get the benefit of a long term investment, but to be able to be flexible enough to get out and avoid the full collapse of a Japan's lost decade.

So I don't really truly invest (own) but I do rent 5 star hotels when they are on sale. The added benefit is that most often, when I move in and out of a particular stock, I'm basically increasing the amount I buy the next time because I'm reinvesting those profits and purchasing again at a lower price point. So first in, I might have 500 shares, make some profit and buy in the same stock later for 550 shares. I'm letting my profits make profits quicker that way. I rent the market.


I'll check out that book..the write up you posted looks awesome. I'd never trade like that, but I love to read about the people who had the balls to.

 

[conraddobler]

I'll check out that book..the write up you posted looks awesome. I'd never trade like that, but I love to read about the people who had the balls to.

Even if you don't trade that way you're swimming in the same water as the sharks who do, so it never hurts to know what they're up to.

 

[DeAnna]

6 Cash Rich Stocks to Buy Now:

http://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/cash_rich_stocks/1.html#top

No surprise APPL ang GOOG are on the list. They also had an article about good picks for companies in 'cloud computing' which will continue to grow.

And, this tidbit as well

That kind of rapid-fire trading is how you get the Dow Jones industrial average to rise and fall 400-plus points four days in a row. Why federal regulators haven’t banned high-speed computerized trading is beyond me. (How? By making it illegal to hold a stock for less than 60 seconds. Such a move would shut down many high-speed traders.)

 

[Russ Smith]

6 Cash Rich Stocks to Buy Now:

http://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/cash_rich_stocks/1.html#top

No surprise APPL ang GOOG are on the list. They also had an article about good picks for companies in 'cloud computing' which will continue to grow.

And, this tidbit as well

Totally agree on the 2nd point they still have never fully explained that "flash crash" that we had over a year ago. For those who forget in May 10 the dow went from down over 300 to down over 900 in 5 minutes. Within 20 minutes most of that 600 point drop had been recovered but many people lost money panicking when the crash started and selling at huge losses.

The general theory is flash trading or high frequency trading played a big role in that drop.

 

[conraddobler]

(That kind of rapid-fire trading is how you get the Dow Jones industrial average to rise and fall 400-plus points four days in a row. Why federal regulators haven’t banned high-speed computerized trading is beyond me. (How? By making it illegal to hold a stock for less than 60 seconds. Such a move would shut down many high-speed traders.)

I heard another possible fix would be to force trading in increments of one nickle, this would make it too risky to do HFT.

I remember when they dropped trading stocks in 1/8's becuase they said it was inefficient, well you want it to be somewhat inefficient to stop what's going on.

These guys are in an arms race to trade this stuff ever faster approaching the speed of light.

It's math algos gone wild up there and it's going to blow up if they don't stop it.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Interesting - I hadn't found that one but it passes the eyeball test on the fundamentals. I swing trade, so daily changes don't bug me if they are trending within my limits and haven't triggered any sell signals. I'm usually in a trade for 4-12 weeks.

Looking back over the past 6 months, I see two times I would have bought in and got out, and would have gained a total of $60 share...18% profit is definitely where I want to be.

I'll continue to track this one and dig deeper on it; thanks for the tip on it.

ISRG up $18.50 (5.76%). CMG up $21.36 (7.82%). The Dow itself was up 3% today...

I would strongly suggest that should these stocks turn south in the next day or two - buy!

 

[jefftheshark]

ISRG up $18.50 (5.76%). CMG up $21.36 (7.82%). The Dow itself was up 3% today...

I would strongly suggest that should these stocks turn south in the next day or two - buy!

I would actually suggest that you wait until the last possible moment on Thursday and then sell.

Let's see who's right on Friday

JTS

 

[82CardsGrad]

I would actually suggest that you wait until the last possible moment on Thursday and then sell.

Let's see who's right on Friday

JTS

Thursday is "two days" away...

 

[conraddobler]

These kind of rallies are to be expected, they are not healthy rallies, they are based on technicals and on bizzaro logic where bad is good, ie the worse the news the more likely the FED will ride it's white horse down the avenue again.

I'd wait for what the FED says in Jackson Hole, cause if they disappoint people there she's gonna do a floor drop.

 

[82CardsGrad]

These kind of rallies are to be expected, they are not healthy rallies, they are based on technicals and on bizzaro logic where bad is good, ie the worse the news the more likely the FED will ride it's white horse down the avenue again.

I'd wait for what the FED says in Jackson Hole, cause if they disappoint people there she's gonna do a floor drop.

Agreed... my comments were related to 2 very specific stocks. I honestly tossed out all historical logic for the broaders markets long ago... technically, they are WHACKED!

 

[conraddobler]

Agreed... my comments were related to 2 very specific stocks. I honestly tossed out all historical logic for the broaders markets long ago... technically, they are WHACKED!

Could of just bought BAC.

I'm going to try and start a new thread but the gist of it is that in Japan, the theme which played out over and over again was that a bank would get into trouble, the stock would tank, insiders would get word that it's going to be bailed out and buy, buy buy and then it would be announced they were saving it and presto insta profit.

There's so much crap going on it's sickening IMO.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Could of just bought BAC.

I'm going to try and start a new thread but the gist of it is that in Japan, the theme which played out over and over again was that a bank would get into trouble, the stock would tank, insiders would get word that it's going to be bailed out and buy, buy buy and then it would be announced they were saving it and presto insta profit.

There's so much crap going on it's sickening IMO.

Seriously... but, who would have ever guessed that Warren Buffett would step in as their savior? He is also a major shareholder in Well Fargo... I guess Buffett has become more powerful than Bernanke himself!!!

 

[82CardsGrad]

ISRG up $18.50 (5.76%). CMG up $21.36 (7.82%). The Dow itself was up 3% today...

I would strongly suggest that should these stocks turn south in the next day or two - buy!

I would actually suggest that you wait until the last possible moment on Thursday and then sell.

Let's see who's right on Friday

JTS

FWIW... on August 23rd, ISRG was selling for 323ish... It has only skyrocketed since then, reaching an intra-day high of 382 and settling today at 376. A 16% gain in less than a week... I know... I know... if only...... But really, if this stock were to see another 5%-10% drop, you gotta jump all over it!!

 

[jefftheshark]

I would actually suggest that you wait until the last possible moment on Thursday and then sell.

Let's see who's right on Friday

JTS

FWIW... on August 23rd, ISRG was selling for 323ish... It has only skyrocketed since then, reaching an intra-day high of 382 and settling today at 376. A 16% gain in less than a week... I know... I know... if only...... But really, if this stock were to see another 5%-10% drop, you gotta jump all over it!!

Hence the reason why you should never take stock advice from someone nicknamed "The Shark"

But in the long run, take a gander at this chart from SocGen and perhaps a look at the longer term trend:

You must be registered for see images

JTS

 

[82CardsGrad]

Hence the reason why you should never take stock advice from someone nicknamed "The Shark"

But in the long run, take a gander at this chart from SocGen and perhaps a look at the longer term trend:

You must be registered for see images

JTS

Ummmm..... WOW!! That's freaky... in a very, very haunting way!

 

[82CardsGrad]

FWIW... on August 23rd, ISRG was selling for 323ish... It has only skyrocketed since then, reaching an intra-day high of 382 and settling today at 376. A 16% gain in less than a week... I know... I know... if only...... But really, if this stock were to see another 5%-10% drop, you gotta jump all over it!!

For the record... ISRG closed today at $389, up another 3.24% today.... incredible!

 

[conraddobler]

Stock market and the price of gold took an incredible hit this week.

 

[LVG]

Stock market and the price of gold took an incredible hit this week.

Depending what we see from some of the financial meetings this weekend, it could continue to go down. Or go up. Or maybe sideways. Or maybe jump to the 6th dimension where the laws of physics don't apply

Anyway it happens, it's bound to be interesting.

 

[82CardsGrad]

For the record... ISRG closed today at $389, up another 3.24% today.... incredible!

ISRG reported BLOW-OUT revenue & earnings #'s yesterday. Stock was up $35 to a record $420!!! Selling off a bit today - down $5 or so... But c'mon already!!!! This thing is truly amazing!

 

[82CardsGrad]

CMG up $12 to $300 per share!!

Been a heckuva ride since the above post... however, CMG was up $25 today and closed at $333. This and ISRG are fun to watch!