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Monday offered a rare reprieve from scoreboard watching for the New York Rangers and their fans. (Instead, they were able to focus on the excitement surrounding the signing of top prospect Gabe Perreault.)
They've watched their playoff odds fluctuate for weeks, with the race for the Eastern Conference's second and final wild-card spot devolving into a jumble of flawed contenders.
With just over two weeks remaining in the regular season, five teams remain firmly in the hunt: Rangers, Blue Jackets, Canadiens, Islanders and Red Wings. None of them played Monday − and none are playing particularly well, with all five registering sub-.500 winning percentages across their last 10 games.
Gabe Perreault: Rangers sign top prospect, who will join team immediately
The floundering Rangers are among the primary culprits, having lost five of their previous six before Saturday's 6-1 win over the NHL-worst San Jose Sharks.
One creative reader deemed it the "Hot Potato Race" − an appropriate moniker given the inability of any team to tighten its grip on the East's No. 8 position.
The ever-changing odds for each of the jockeying clubs can be found on various sites, but here I've laid out my own analysis. The inexact calculations are based on a variety of factors, including remaining strength of schedule as determined by tankathon.com. And they're listed in order of how I view their chances of getting in.
Total points: 77
Points percentage: .527
Remaining games: 9
Regulation wins: 25
Last 10 games: 4-3-3
Strength of remaining schedule: .520 (28th hardest)
Analysis: The Habs had been sinking fast with five straight losses (0-3-2), but their surprising 4-2 win over the defending champion Panthers on Sunday was a major swing in their favor. That pushed them back into the lead based on points percentage, and with the easiest remaining schedule among the five competing teams, they're in the most advantageous position. Only four of their final nine games will come against teams currently in playoff position.
Montreal is leaning on its 25-and-under core of Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky and captain Nick Suzuki up front and Calder Trophy candidate Lane Hutson on the back end. That comes with expected growing pains and mistakes, but allowing them to blossom in prominent roles has paid off in the second half. And with the hockey-crazed town rallying around them, it feels like the Canadiens have more forward momentum than most of teams on this list.
Odds: 31%
Total points: 77
PTS%: .520
Remaining games: 8
Regulation wins: 32
Last 10: 4-5-1
SOS: .579 (2nd)
Thoughts: The Rangers have had a roller coaster of a season, with a brutal 4-15 slump from late-November through December putting last year's Presidents' Trophy winner in this precarious spot. They steadied for about two months to start the new year, but their problems reemerged in a big way in March. New York has lost nine of its last 13 (4-6-3), with some especially discouraging results along the way.
The reality is they're a bad defensive team, with an average of 13.47 scoring chances allowed per game that ranks 30th in the league and last among the five wild-card hopefuls, according to Clear Sight Analytics. Those results are even worse when defending the rush, with the top transition teams giving them fits. And their possession numbers have taken a nosedive of late, leading to some alarmingly low shot totals.
It's put an inordinate amount of pressure on Igor Shesterkin, who's the best goalie among these contenders and primary reason to believe in the Rangers. The rest of the team's effort has come into question on several occasions this season, but they don't need to be world-beaters to outrun this mediocre field.
The schedule is working against the Blueshirts because they have the fewest remaining games to collect points and the second-hardest path, with five of their final eight games coming against teams in playoff position. But they do hold the important first tiebreaker with six more regulation wins than the competition.
Armed with Shesterkin, Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin and other players who have experienced long playoff runs in recent years, there's at least a decent chance the Rangers sneak in before facing harsher realities this summer.
Odds: 29%
Total points: 75
PTS%: .521
Remaining games: 10
Regulation wins: 23
Last 10: 3-6-1
SOS: .568 (tied for 7th)
Thoughts: For a while it looked like the Blue Jackets had all the momentum, then they hit a wall. Following a rousing Stadium Series win over the Red Wings in the Mar. 1, Columbus fell into a 1-7-1 funk.
It's been an emotional season for the upstart Jackets, and it all seemed to be catching up to them. Then they got a couple key forwards back from injury in Sean Monahan and Cole Sillinger, and they've begun to rally again. They snapped the losing streak with comeback wins over the Islanders and Canucks last week, which was enough to renew their hopes.
Columbus' defensive metrics are shaky at best and its goaltending has left much to be desired, but there's an exciting crop of young talent here, led by dynamic defenseman Zach Werenski, and a speedy, attacking style that can be a handful for opponents to deal with. The Jackets have two games in hand on the Rangers and a feel-good story that everyone can get behind following the tragic death of beloved star Johnny Gaudreau. At times it's felt like he's working his magic from hockey heaven.
Odds: 25%
Total points: 74
PTS%: .507
Remaining games: 9
Regulation wins: 25
Last 10: 3-4-3
SOS: .568 (tied for 7th)
Thoughts: I'm not sure many people expected the Islanders to still be in at this late juncture, yet here we are.
Apologies to our friends on Long Island, but I remain highly skeptical.
The Isles had a mini surge with three straight wins from Mar. 16-20, but they've gone back into the tank with four consecutive losses since. Their next three games are against current playoff teams, as well, so it won't get easier any time soon.
It's hard to have much faith in a team with such little scoring punch. New York's average of 2.74 goals per game ranks 25th in the league and worst among the wild-card contenders. Bo Horvat leads the team with an underwhelming total of 51 points.
It's long felt like time for the Isles to tear down and start the rebuild process in earnest. Maybe missing the playoffs will push them to do just that.
Odds: 10%
Total points: 74
PTS%: .507
Remaining games: 9
Regulation wins: 26
Last 10: 4-6-0
SOS: .612 (1st)
Thoughts: The Wings feel like the longest shot because they're already a few points back in the race and have the toughest remaining schedule in the NHL. Seven of their final nine games will come against playoff-bound clubs, with Detroit struggling against those types of quality teams all season.
Odds: 5%
Vincent Z. Mercogliano is the New York Rangers beat reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Read more of his work at lohud.com/sports/rangers/ and follow him on Twitter @vzmercogliano.
This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: NY Rangers playoff odds: Where they stand in NHL wild card race
Continue reading...
They've watched their playoff odds fluctuate for weeks, with the race for the Eastern Conference's second and final wild-card spot devolving into a jumble of flawed contenders.
With just over two weeks remaining in the regular season, five teams remain firmly in the hunt: Rangers, Blue Jackets, Canadiens, Islanders and Red Wings. None of them played Monday − and none are playing particularly well, with all five registering sub-.500 winning percentages across their last 10 games.
Gabe Perreault: Rangers sign top prospect, who will join team immediately
The floundering Rangers are among the primary culprits, having lost five of their previous six before Saturday's 6-1 win over the NHL-worst San Jose Sharks.
One creative reader deemed it the "Hot Potato Race" − an appropriate moniker given the inability of any team to tighten its grip on the East's No. 8 position.
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The ever-changing odds for each of the jockeying clubs can be found on various sites, but here I've laid out my own analysis. The inexact calculations are based on a variety of factors, including remaining strength of schedule as determined by tankathon.com. And they're listed in order of how I view their chances of getting in.
Montreal Canadiens (34-30-9)
Total points: 77
Points percentage: .527
Remaining games: 9
Regulation wins: 25
Last 10 games: 4-3-3
Strength of remaining schedule: .520 (28th hardest)
Analysis: The Habs had been sinking fast with five straight losses (0-3-2), but their surprising 4-2 win over the defending champion Panthers on Sunday was a major swing in their favor. That pushed them back into the lead based on points percentage, and with the easiest remaining schedule among the five competing teams, they're in the most advantageous position. Only four of their final nine games will come against teams currently in playoff position.
Montreal is leaning on its 25-and-under core of Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky and captain Nick Suzuki up front and Calder Trophy candidate Lane Hutson on the back end. That comes with expected growing pains and mistakes, but allowing them to blossom in prominent roles has paid off in the second half. And with the hockey-crazed town rallying around them, it feels like the Canadiens have more forward momentum than most of teams on this list.
Odds: 31%
New York Rangers (35-32-7)
Total points: 77
PTS%: .520
Remaining games: 8
Regulation wins: 32
Last 10: 4-5-1
SOS: .579 (2nd)
Thoughts: The Rangers have had a roller coaster of a season, with a brutal 4-15 slump from late-November through December putting last year's Presidents' Trophy winner in this precarious spot. They steadied for about two months to start the new year, but their problems reemerged in a big way in March. New York has lost nine of its last 13 (4-6-3), with some especially discouraging results along the way.
The reality is they're a bad defensive team, with an average of 13.47 scoring chances allowed per game that ranks 30th in the league and last among the five wild-card hopefuls, according to Clear Sight Analytics. Those results are even worse when defending the rush, with the top transition teams giving them fits. And their possession numbers have taken a nosedive of late, leading to some alarmingly low shot totals.
It's put an inordinate amount of pressure on Igor Shesterkin, who's the best goalie among these contenders and primary reason to believe in the Rangers. The rest of the team's effort has come into question on several occasions this season, but they don't need to be world-beaters to outrun this mediocre field.
The schedule is working against the Blueshirts because they have the fewest remaining games to collect points and the second-hardest path, with five of their final eight games coming against teams in playoff position. But they do hold the important first tiebreaker with six more regulation wins than the competition.
Armed with Shesterkin, Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin and other players who have experienced long playoff runs in recent years, there's at least a decent chance the Rangers sneak in before facing harsher realities this summer.
Odds: 29%
Columbus Blue Jackets (33-30-9)
Total points: 75
PTS%: .521
Remaining games: 10
Regulation wins: 23
Last 10: 3-6-1
SOS: .568 (tied for 7th)
Thoughts: For a while it looked like the Blue Jackets had all the momentum, then they hit a wall. Following a rousing Stadium Series win over the Red Wings in the Mar. 1, Columbus fell into a 1-7-1 funk.
It's been an emotional season for the upstart Jackets, and it all seemed to be catching up to them. Then they got a couple key forwards back from injury in Sean Monahan and Cole Sillinger, and they've begun to rally again. They snapped the losing streak with comeback wins over the Islanders and Canucks last week, which was enough to renew their hopes.
Columbus' defensive metrics are shaky at best and its goaltending has left much to be desired, but there's an exciting crop of young talent here, led by dynamic defenseman Zach Werenski, and a speedy, attacking style that can be a handful for opponents to deal with. The Jackets have two games in hand on the Rangers and a feel-good story that everyone can get behind following the tragic death of beloved star Johnny Gaudreau. At times it's felt like he's working his magic from hockey heaven.
Odds: 25%
New York Islanders (32-31-10)
Total points: 74
PTS%: .507
Remaining games: 9
Regulation wins: 25
Last 10: 3-4-3
SOS: .568 (tied for 7th)
Thoughts: I'm not sure many people expected the Islanders to still be in at this late juncture, yet here we are.
Apologies to our friends on Long Island, but I remain highly skeptical.
The Isles had a mini surge with three straight wins from Mar. 16-20, but they've gone back into the tank with four consecutive losses since. Their next three games are against current playoff teams, as well, so it won't get easier any time soon.
It's hard to have much faith in a team with such little scoring punch. New York's average of 2.74 goals per game ranks 25th in the league and worst among the wild-card contenders. Bo Horvat leads the team with an underwhelming total of 51 points.
It's long felt like time for the Isles to tear down and start the rebuild process in earnest. Maybe missing the playoffs will push them to do just that.
Odds: 10%
Detroit Red Wings (34-33-6)
Total points: 74
PTS%: .507
Remaining games: 9
Regulation wins: 26
Last 10: 4-6-0
SOS: .612 (1st)
Thoughts: The Wings feel like the longest shot because they're already a few points back in the race and have the toughest remaining schedule in the NHL. Seven of their final nine games will come against playoff-bound clubs, with Detroit struggling against those types of quality teams all season.
Odds: 5%
Vincent Z. Mercogliano is the New York Rangers beat reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Read more of his work at lohud.com/sports/rangers/ and follow him on Twitter @vzmercogliano.
This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: NY Rangers playoff odds: Where they stand in NHL wild card race
Continue reading...
