O'Neal and Dallas

[elindholm]

Because of O'Neal's allegedly good relationship with Mark Cuban, Dallas is being mentioned as a possible target. The problem with using the Mavericks as a trading partner is that they don't have any inside players who could go back to the Lakers.

I think Dallas would be willing to send off Nowitzki, Jamison, and Najera. In terms of talent, that's a pretty fair deal, but it leaves the Lakers looking pretty much like "Mavericks Lite," with a bunch of wing players and no true big men.

So now I'm thinking about a three-way with Dallas and Orlando. Orlando coughs up the #1 pick, which the Lakers use to take Okafor, Dallas sends a good player to Orlando to provide McGrady immediate help, and everything else gets ironed out somehow.

Anyone want to put together some actual scenarios? I'm surprised at the reports saying that the Lakers will, in fact, try to make a trade. I figured they'd interpret O'Neal's request as momentary frustration, find some other way to placate him, and move on.

What does everyone think the chance is that O'Neal really does get traded this summer? I'm still thinking 20% at most, but that's higher than I thought yesterday.

 

[RON_IN_OC]

Because of O'Neal's allegedly good relationship with Mark Cuban, Dallas is being mentioned as a possible target. The problem with using the Mavericks as a trading partner is that they don't have any inside players who could go back to the Lakers.

I think Dallas would be willing to send off Nowitzki, Jamison, and Najera. In terms of talent, that's a pretty fair deal, but it leaves the Lakers looking pretty much like "Mavericks Lite," with a bunch of wing players and no true big men.

So now I'm thinking about a three-way with Dallas and Orlando. Orlando coughs up the #1 pick, which the Lakers use to take Okafor, Dallas sends a good player to Orlando to provide McGrady immediate help, and everything else gets ironed out somehow.

Anyone want to put together some actual scenarios? I'm surprised at the reports saying that the Lakers will, in fact, try to make a trade. I figured they'd interpret O'Neal's request as momentary frustration, find some other way to placate him, and move on.

What does everyone think the chance is that O'Neal really does get traded this summer? I'm still thinking 20% at most, but that's higher than I thought yesterday.

I think with Phillip now gone, the Lakers would rather keep Kobe than Shaq...Deep down that's what they really want...They will do everything under the sun to make that a reality.

 

[elindholm]

I think will Phillip now gone, the Lakers would rather keep Kobe than Shaq...Deep down that's what they really want...They will do everything under the sun to make that a reality.

I agree, but I think their top choice is to keep both. And I don't buy the assumption that they're relationship is so bad that they can't play together anymore.

Bryant is staying, but that doesn't necessarily mean that O'Neal is leaving.

 

[Joe Mama]

I think will Phillip now gone, the Lakers would rather keep Kobe than Shaq...Deep down that's what they really want...They will do everything under the sun to make that a reality.

I agree, but I think their top choice is to keep both. And I don't buy the assumption that they're relationship is so bad that they can't play together anymore.

Bryant is staying, but that doesn't necessarily mean that O'Neal is leaving.

I read somewhere this morning that Shaquille O'Neal has an option after next season in his contract. The article said that if worse comes to worst he will play out next season with the Lakers and opt out of his contract.

I also think that the Lakers would rather have Dirk Nowitzki, Antoine Walker, and Josh Howard. Howard is well worth his relatively small rookie contract. Dirk Nowitzki is worth his money, and Antoine Walker's contract is expiring after next season. Antwawn Jamison is a talented player, but he is well overpaid on a contract that is only a couple seasons old.

Joe

 

[fordronken]

Quite frankly I can see it coming down to Mitch Kupchak sitting in his office with Kobe Bryant and saying, "Here are the three or four best options, one of which involving not trading Shaq. If you re-sign, you can pick whichever one you want."

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

My first attempt at a 3 way deal, and it went through....

Looks Decent:

Dallas trades: PF Antoine Walker (14.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 4.5 apg in 34.6 minutes)
SF Antawn Jamison (14.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 0.9 apg in 29.0 minutes)
PF Dirk Nowitzki (21.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 2.7 apg in 37.9 minutes)
SF Josh Howard (8.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.5 apg in 23.7 minutes)
Dallas receives: SF Grant Hill (8.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.5 apg in 23.7 minutes)
C Shaquille O'Neal (21.5 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 2.9 apg in 36.8 minutes)
Change in team outlook: -37.7 ppg, -17.3 rpg, and -6.7 apg.

Orlando trades: SF Grant Hill (8.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.5 apg in 23.7 minutes)
Orlando receives: PF Antoine Walker (14.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 4.5 apg in 82 games)
Change in team outlook: +14.0 ppg, +8.3 rpg, and +4.5 apg.

L.A. Lakers trades: C Shaquille O'Neal (21.5 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 2.9 apg in 36.8 minutes)
L.A. Lakers receives: SF Antawn Jamison (14.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 0.9 apg in 82 games)
PF Dirk Nowitzki (21.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 2.7 apg in 77 games)
SF Josh Howard (8.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.5 apg in 67 games)
Change in team outlook: +23.7 ppg, +9.0 rpg, and +2.2 apg.

TRADE ACCEPTED

Due to Dallas, Orlando, and L.A. Lakers being over the cap, the 15% trade rule is invoked. Dallas, Orlando, and L.A. Lakers had to be no more than 115% plus $100,000 of the salary given out for the trade to be accepted, which did happen here. This trade satisfies the provisions of the Collective Bargaining Agreement

Dallas -

Recieves Shaq, Hill

Orlando -

Recieves - Walker

LA -

Receives - Dirk, Jamison, Howard and the #1



Basically I combined 2 trades. The Hill and #1 for Walker had been floating around for a while (so Orlando may do it). Then I used Eric's propsal on top of that, adding in Josh Howard.

Looks to me like both LA and Dallas do alright, with the Magic getting to clear Hill as a bonus to faciliating the trade.

 

[elindholm]

Hmm. I'm thinking that the #1 pick should be worth Nowitzki. It's not like anyone really wants Walker, and, for that matter, the Lakers don't really want Nowitkzi.

Dumping Hill's contract on Cuban is a clever nuance, however.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Hmm. I'm thinking that the #1 pick should be worth Nowitzki. It's not like anyone really wants Walker, and, for that matter, the Lakers don't really want Nowitkzi.

Dumping Hill's contract on Cuban is a clever nuance, however.

Well the thought process when the trade was intially circulated is that Walker's deal is over next summer. Since Grant Hill is touting a comeback again, he will most likely not retire.

If the magic were to combined that trade with a trade without Marion for McGrady, they would be a major FA player in 2005 (and ready to rebuild).

That might even be enough to convince Tracey not to bolt (if the Magic could offer a max contract to someone else next summer)


But you are right, those two could easily be switched if LA and Orlando wanted it that way.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Hmm. I'm thinking that the #1 pick should be worth Nowitzki. It's not like anyone really wants Walker, and, for that matter, the Lakers don't really want Nowitkzi.

Dumping Hill's contract on Cuban is a clever nuance, however.

Yup, word is that Dallas didn't even protect Walker for the expansion draft. It just doesn't work for Orlando. I'd want alot more for that #1.

 

[slinslin]

My first attempt at a 3 way deal, and it went through....

Looks Decent:


Dallas -

Recieves Shaq, Hill

Orlando -

Recieves - Walker

LA -

Receives - Dirk, Jamison, Howard and the #1

That's horrible for Dallas. Absolutely horrible.

 

[Joe Mama]

That's horrible for Dallas. Absolutely horrible.

I was thinking the same thing. It's an incredible deal for the Lakers though.

Joe Mama

 

[JCSunsfan]

I was thinking the same thing. It's an incredible deal for the Lakers though.

Joe Mama

That's why its not realistic. If Shaq is demanding a trade, historically its his team that would be dealing from the point of weakness.

In any trade including Shaq, LA will not get anything close to equal "on the court" value. His salary and his trade demands assure that.

 

[slinslin]

Unlike eric said earlier I don't think the Lakers would totally laugh at Shawn Marion, Howard Eisley, Jake Voshkul and like 16M$ caproom for Shaq. I don't see them getting much more than that out of Shaq if at all if the Suns even want to do that. It would also make it easier for them to keep Kobe because they would take away probably the top destination for Kobe to go to.

Of course as long as they are healthy an Amare/Shaq frontcourt should dominate every team and I don't think the Lakers would want Shaq in their own division even.

 

[Joe Mama]

Unlike eric said earlier I don't think the Lakers would totally laugh at Shawn Marion, Howard Eisley, Jake Voshkul and like 16M$ caproom for Shaq. I don't see them getting much more than that out of Shaq if at all if the Suns even want to do that. It would also make it easier for them to keep Kobe because they would take away probably the top destination for Kobe to go to.

Of course as long as they are healthy an Amare/Shaq frontcourt should dominate every team and I don't think the Lakers would want Shaq in their own division even.

I'm sorry, but I disagree. I think the Lakers would laugh hysterically at that offer.

Joe Mama

 

[Chaplin]

My first attempt at a 3 way deal, and it went through....

Looks Decent:




Dallas -

Recieves Shaq, Hill

Orlando -

Recieves - Walker

LA -

Receives - Dirk, Jamison, Howard and the #1



Basically I combined 2 trades. The Hill and #1 for Walker had been floating around for a while (so Orlando may do it). Then I used Eric's propsal on top of that, adding in Josh Howard.

Looks to me like both LA and Dallas do alright, with the Magic getting to clear Hill as a bonus to faciliating the trade.

Orlando: Drew Gooden, Juwan Howard and Antoine Walker.

Yuck!

 

[JCSunsfan]

I'm sorry, but I disagree. I think the Lakers would laugh hysterically at that offer.

Joe Mama

Right now, the Lakers aren't in a position to laugh at anything. What they probably do would gulp, wipe a brow, and hope like heck something better comes their way.

 

[Joe Mama]

Right now, the Lakers aren't in a position to laugh at anything. What they probably do would gulp, wipe a brow, and hope like heck something better comes their way.

Shaq has asked for a trade, but that doesn't mean the Lakers have to get screwed in the process. Whether they would laugh hysterically or wipe a brow, the Lakers wouldn't even consider that deal.

Joe Mama

 

[slinslin]

Joe you think that every team would laugh hysterically at any trade involving Shawn Marion.
Sorry Joe, just the truth but you are devaluing Marion a lot.

 

[Joe Mama]

Joe you think that every team would laugh hysterically at any trade involving Shawn Marion.
Sorry Joe, just the truth but you are devaluing Marion a lot.

what ever. I think you are over valuing Shawn Marion a lot. I mean your trade is basically Shawn Marion for Shaquille O'Neal. It's terrible for the Lakers. On top of that you have them taking Howard Eiseley! I'm sorry, but it would never, never happen.

Unlike eric said earlier I don't think the Lakers would totally laugh at Shawn Marion, Howard Eisley, Jake Voshkul and like 16M$ caproom for Shaq. I don't see them getting much more than that out of Shaq if at all if the Suns even want to do that. It would also make it easier for them to keep Kobe because they would take away probably the top destination for Kobe to go to.

Of course as long as they are healthy an Amare/Shaq frontcourt should dominate every team and I don't think the Lakers would want Shaq in their own division even.

and by the way, according to my calculations if the LA Lakers re-signed Kobe Bryant in a contract starting at around $15 million a would have a team salary of almost $52 million after your trade. Heck, they would only have $5 million to spend in free agency if they didn't re-sign Bryant.

Joe

 

[slinslin]

No if they traded Shaq for Marion and Eisley or something like that the Lakers would get a huge trade exemption since they are over the cap that they could use to acquire FAs or contracts in a trade.

It would definately not be much worse for them than the Dallas trade that you said would be brilliant for the Lakers.

They could always use the 12M$ or so exemption to get someone like Abdur-Rahim. Or a center.

 

[Yuma]

I agree Joe. The center position would be HORRIBLE for the Lakers. There has to be a replacement better than Jake for them. Now if we signed Dampier first, then traded him along with everyone else, do you think that would be enough Joe?

 

[JCSunsfan]

what ever. I think you are over valuing Shawn Marion a lot. I mean your trade is basically Shawn Marion for Shaquille O'Neal. It's terrible for the Lakers. On top of that you have them taking Howard Eiseley! I'm sorry, but it would never, never happen.



and by the way, according to my calculations if the LA Lakers re-signed Kobe Bryant in a contract starting at around $15 million a would have a team salary of almost $52 million after your trade. Heck, they would only have $5 million to spend in free agency if they didn't re-sign Bryant.

Joe

Joe, my understanding is that when a team that is over the cap, trades more salary away (to a team that is under the cap) than it receives back, it gets a trade exception, that allows that team to go out and sign a FA with the exception money--even if that first team is over the cap.

I do not remember exactly how the exception is calculated. It could be a dollar for dollar amount or some percentage thereof.

 

[Joe Mama]

Joe, my understanding is that when a team that is over the cap, trades more salary away (to a team that is under the cap) than it receives back, it gets a trade exception, that allows that team to go out and sign a FA with the exception money--even if that first team is over the cap.

I do not remember exactly how the exception is calculated. It could be a dollar for dollar amount or some percentage thereof.

that's right. I'm sorry slin. I'm not sure I really understand how that works either. I'll have to read up on it.

Joe Mama

 

[cly2tw]

Shaq and Kobe won't play togehter since they aren't gonna win it in this Laker team, thus no reason for coping with the personality clash.

Orlando wouldn't be wise to ship Hill + #1 for Walker and ship McGrady for cap. They'd have 30 mil caps with no FA franchise player available to them, due to restricted FA rules. They'd rather have Okafor, whose value becomes very high due to Ben Wallace's performance, and bet on getting good value from trading McGRady, like for Artest and Harrington.

Lakers would unlikely do Shaq for Marion + Eisley trade, but may get enticed by Shaq + George for Marion + Eisley + #7.

 

[Cog]

The chance of Shaq getting traded this summer

"What does everyone think the chance is that O'Neal really does get traded this summer? I'm still thinking 20% at most, but that's higher than I thought yesterday."

I suspect the probability of Shaq getting traded this summer is far greater than 20%. I would say 50%. If I were the owner of the Lakers, I would want to restructure the team this summer. They have gotten almost all the sweet mileages out of the current team built around Shaq (and Kobe). Time to rebuild, not reload. As the value of Shaq is going to diminish from this point on, this summer is about optimal time to get the trade done. One big problem for the Lakers is how you get the max value for Shaq in this situation. The Lakers will offer Shaq at a somewhat discounted rate, I suspect. Nevertheless, the discounted value of Shaq will be more than most teams can manage in terms of exchange value (to satisfy the Lakers) and trade value (to satisfy trade rules). Again, if I were the owner, Shaq would be as good as gone this summer even for the discounted value in return.