Oscar Nominees

[Bob Chebat]

The Oscar Nominees will be announced on Tuesday. I thought it would be fun to list our guesses and see what happens.

I'd like to see them divide the honors a bit and spread them out. There were a lot of solid films and performances. They should try to recognize them all.

Here are my hopefuls....

Best Picture
Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
Lost in Translation
Big Fish
Cold Mountain
The Last Samurai

Best Actor
Bill Murray - Lost in Translation
Johnny Depp - Pirates of the Caribbean
Tom Cruise - The Last Samurai
Russell Crowe - Master and Commander
Jude Law - Cold Mountain

Best Actress
Charlize Theron - Monster
Charlotte Rampling - Swimming Pool
Evan Rachel Wood - Thirteen
Diane Lane - Under the Tuscan Sun
Nicole Kidman - Cold Mountain

Best Director
Anthony Minghella - Cold Mountain
Gary Ross - Seabiscuit
Peter Jackson - Lord of the Rings
Sofia Coppola - Lost in Translation
Ed Zwick - The Last Samurai

 

[Stout]

Not a bad list...a few from movies I haven't seen. But...Diane Lane from Under the Tuscan Sun? Are you joking? Now, I enjoy good chick flicks as much as the next sensitive guys, but that was an abysmal film. All the women I know even hated it!

And what's the deal with all the movies released on Christmas or after, or even released in 2004, making the list? I mean, how are they supposed to even guage public interest? Or are the Oscars the 'elitist, what the few' thinks, and damn public opinion?

 

[Chaplin]

It's a good list, but you've totally ignored a huge favorite this year: Mystic River.

Mystic River will definitely be nominated for:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor

and maybe...

Best Supporting Actress
Best Screenplay


In fact, Sean Penn is probably the favorite for Best Actor this year for Mystic River and Tim Robbins is starting to really pick up steam as Best Supporting Actor.

 

[Bob Chebat]

My point is, list your picks and lets see who gets closest, that's all.

Stout, about Diane Lane, just a personal favorite of mine. Not necessarily what will happen, but she is uh, one hot 40-something.

Chap, agree on Mystic River. I did overlook it as I have not seen it. Right now, if a movie is not on video, I have not seen it other than LOTR and one other. I am hoping to go see Butterfly Effect on Sunday. I won't expect much, but hope to be entertained.

List your own picks and lets see what happens.

 

[Stout]

Originally posted by Bob Chebat
My point is, list your picks and lets see who gets closest, that's all.

Stout, about Diane Lane, just a personal favorite of mine. Not necessarily what will happen, but she is uh, one hot 40-something.

List your own picks and lets see what happens.

Nah....I don't follow the Oscars, so don't know what movies/actors/etc to predict.

I agree on Diane Lane being hot...WOW...but her steamy scene was about the only positive I took from the movie Lol.

 

[Mike Olbinski]

Okay, I don't really have time to list all of them out, but here's a few who I want to win, or see nominated:

Best Director - Peter Jackson, hands down. If he doesn't win, I don't care who else does.

Best Picture - What else? Return of the King...they have to reward this movie for what it accomplished. You have movies like Master and Commander that were good, but just nothing like this movie. Lost in Translation...loved it, but it's just gotta be the Lord of Rings' year.

But other ones that I want to see at least nominated: Lost in Translation, Mystic River, Cold Mountain.

Best Actor:
Sean Penn
Bill Murray

I think it's really just these two who have a chance to win. While Penn will be tough to beat, I am PRAYING for a Bill Murray win. He deserves it, the guy is amazing.

Best Actress:

Charlize Theron, Nicole Kidman, Naomi Watts, Jennifer Connelly.

I only saw Cold Mountain, so I can't say much here. But from what I've heard, i think Theron will win this.

Best Supporting Actor:

Not sure here, but I'd love to see Sean Astin get a nod.

Best Supporting Actress:

Rene Zellwegger rocked in Cold Mountain, I'd like to see her win it.

Kind of a fun Oscar year for me. I never have really been pulling for a movie to win, I usually watch just to see what happens.

But this year, with Lord of the Rings, and Bill Murray, I feel like I have a "favorite team" I'm pulling for.

Can't wait.

Mike

 

[Chaplin]

Predicted winners are marked with a *

Best Picture:
*Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Mystic River
Lost in Translation
Cold Mountain - based on hype, does not deserve to be nominated
Master and Commander (or Last Samurai--it's a tossup)

Comments: I've been predicting LOTR for over a year now, and although Mystic River and Lost in Translation will give it a run for it's money, I just don't think you can vote against it, since the award would be basically going to the whole trilogy. I don't think Lost in Translation realistically has a chance to win, because except for Shakespeare in Love, recent history has not been kind to comedies at the Oscars.

Best Actor:
Sean Penn- Mystic River
*Bill Murray- Lost in Translation
Ben Kingsley- House of Sand and Fog
Sean Penn- 21 Grams
Russell Crowe- Master and Commander

Comments: I'm not totally sure about the last two, but if Penn is indeed nominated for both films, then Bill Murray is a shoe-in, since Penn will likely split the vote. I'd love to see Johnny Depp get a nod here, but I find it unlikely that his performance would beat out much more serious contenders like Crowe and Penn in 21 Grams.

Best Actress:
*Charlize Theron- Monster
Evan Rachel Wood- Thirteen
Scarlett Johanssen- Girl with the Pearl Earring
Nicole Kidman- Cold Mountain
Scarlett Johanssen- Lost in Translation

Comments: This is a total no-brainer. This is Theron's award to lose. The fact that Nicole Kidman will even be nominated is a travesty, as she is the one that really makes Cold Mountain less than what it could have been.

Best Supporting Actor:
*Tim Robbins- Mystic River
Ken Watanabe- The Last Samurai
Alex Baldwin- The Cooler
Benicio Del Toro- 21 Grams
Albert Finney- Big Fish

Comments: I seriously doubt that any acting noms will come from LOTR this year, mainly because there are so many performances that aren't in ensemble casts. It's very difficult to get any awards if you are a part of an ensemble cast. This is a very close category, IMO, where I think Robbins and Watanabe really deserve the award the most. And I think Robbins will win it.

Best Supporting Actress:
Holly Hunter- Thirteen
Marcia Gay Harden- Mystic River
*Renee Zellweger- Cold Mountain
Patricia Clarkson- Pieces of April
Maria Bello- The Cooler

Comments: This is a tough one. I really liked Zellweger and Marcia Gay Harden in their respective films, but I think Zellweger's previous Best Actress noms are going to be the difference in this race.

Best Director:
*Peter Jackson- LOTR: The Return of the King
Clint Eastwood- Mystic River
Peter Weir- Master and Commander
Sofia Coppola- Lost in Translation
Anthony Minghella- Cold Mountain

Comments: Peter Jackson's closest competition in this category is probably Sofia Coppola, but I'm not sure if the Academy is ready to give the Best Director award to a woman. Sad, but it's the nature of the beast, unfortunately.

 

[Stout]

I find it increasingly curious how movies that were released at the end of the year (Cold Mountain, Big Fish), and even movies that were only released in NY, LA or both in a year and NOT EVEN WIDELY RELEASED FOR THE YEAR IN QUESTION (Monster, The Cooler), can be considered for the Oscars.

I should qualify this: I know nothing about the Oscars other than their fame. I mean, the industry is basically saying the public knows nothing, that these are 'good old boy' awards that the 'insiders' get to choose on. With no imput from the public.

Now, if this is the case and that's how it's billed, then please disregard my comments, as the Oscars would then be following their own guidelines. Otherwise, how the heck can these movies even be nominated!?!?!?

IMO, movies from the tail end of a year, and ESPECIALLY from the beginning of the following year, just need to get considered in the following year. How can you barely have been out and are immediately be considered for an Oscar? Doesn't follow to me.

 

[Chaplin]

It's all about marketing and the specific dates. Plus, if Monster was released in January, NOBODY would go see it. As it is, it was released in December, where there is a lot of hoopla about it all the way until March (when the Oscars occur). So not only does releasing small movies in December make a different for awards, it makes a diifference for box office as well.

And why is it we never see movies released early in the year nominated for Oscars? We almost never see that because the Academy is pretty short sighted--an Oscar nom and win are very important in a film's final box office take. Call it "Hollywood" or whatever, but it's the audience that dictates that, not the studios.

P.S. There are a few Oscar-nom films that came out early in the year--the best probably being Silence of the Lambs 13 years ago. But it also hurts films as well, such as Rosewood and Dark City a few years ago.

 

[Stout]

Hmm...good perspective, Chap. Cleared it right up for me. Thanks, man!