OT: Dak turns down $30 mm wants $40 mm

[Chris_Sanders]

But it’s being reported that the Cowgirlz have already made him an offer of at least $30 million a year (don’t know for how many years and don’t know the exact amount of guaranteed money - but, I think it’d be safe to assume the guaranteed money would be more than $29 million). It makes little sense for Dak to accept a franchise tag and risk getting “paid” for just one year, when he already has an offer from Dallas that is likely guaranteeing more than the tag would pay...

But he doesn't have an offer more than the tag would pay. Even after a single season the contract is worth less than the tag.

Yes there is the extremely unlikely possibility he suffers a catastrophic injury but that is nothing compared to the amount of money he will absolutely lose by signing a 30 million dollar extension

Everyone kept saying "But what if he gets hurt" with Cousins and this is the modern NFL and QBs are the most protected position on the field.

 

[MadCardDisease]

Jimmy G got $27.5M a year two years ago and all he has done is date a porn star.

My guess is Dak gets $32M-$33M per year when it is all said and done.

 

[82CardsGrad]

But he doesn't have an offer more than the tag would pay. Even after a single season the contract is worth less than the tag.

Yes there is the extremely unlikely possibility he suffers a catastrophic injury but that is nothing compared to the amount of money he will absolutely lose by signing a 30 million dollar extension

Everyone kept saying "But what if he gets hurt" with Cousins and this is the modern NFL and QBs are the most protected position on the field.

Cousins is a total anomaly, likely never to see that again...
And I believe PFF or PFT is reporting the Cowgirlz have made an offer of more than $30 million per to Dak. Which means the guaranteed money is more than a one year Tag...

 

[Chris_Sanders]

You keep saying a one year tag. It's like you either don't understand the economics or just refuse to read it.

You have to treat his contract negotations as a multi year tag or you are just letting him walk.

 

[Shane]

I’m sure this is exactly why Dak’s agent wants more than $30 million. Wentz and Dak were in the same draft and Dak is a year younger than Wentz.

Dak has only made $3 million in 3 seasons in the NFL. Wentz made $22.5 million in his first 3 seasons.

Here are their stats.

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Dak has more total touchdowns, a better completion %, less interceptions, and a higher Yards per attempt. Plus he’s never missed a game despite getting sacked more.

What they made in their first few season have no bearing on it. You are payed based on draft status nothing more or less. You dont get to make that up later just because you feel like it.

 

[Dback Jon]

Question - if you could pick Wentz or Prescott to be your starting QB, who do you pick?

 

[Shane]

Question - if you could pick Wentz or Prescott to be your starting QB, who do you pick?

Wentz

 

[NJCardFan]

I’m sure this is exactly why Dak’s agent wants more than $30 million. Wentz and Dak were in the same draft and Dak is a year younger than Wentz.

Dak has only made $3 million in 3 seasons in the NFL. Wentz made $22.5 million in his first 3 seasons.
Dak has more total touchdowns, a better completion %, less interceptions, and a higher Yards per attempt. Plus he’s never missed a game despite getting sacked more.

The difference, though is 2 fold. #1, Prescott was a 4th round draft pick while Wentz was the #2 pick in the draft and #2, Wentz played a big part in the Eagles winning a Super Bowl having led his team to an 11-2 record and throwing 33 TD's in 13 games all the while not having a Zeke Elliot, a Dez Bryant, and not having Prescott's offensive line(and there's no reason to believe that had he not gotten injured the Eagles still wouldn't have won the Super Bowl). And Prescott has Elliot to thank for much of his success which is evident given his pedestrian numbers during Elliot's suspension. During that time the Cowboys went 3-3 and Prescott has passing yard games of, 176, 159, 175, 102, 332, 212 with a combined 5 TD and 7 INT. That's 5 TD's in 6 games 3 of which were in 1 game.

Also, if you're trying to say Prescott is better than Wentz, you're stark raving mad. You give Wentz a stud RB and a top tier WR and he'll feed Prescott his lunch. Yards per game, Wentz is better at 253.8 as compared to 226.5 and Prescott has 16 games where he passed for less than 200 yards as compared to 9 by Wentz. In short, No way Prescott is worthy of Wentz or any other top tier QB money. He's being silly not taking the $30 mil.

 

[NJCardFan]

Question - if you could pick Wentz or Prescott to be your starting QB, who do you pick?

A healthy Wentz all day, every day. We'll see this year as Wentz is supposed to be 100%.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Question - if you could pick Wentz or Prescott to be your starting QB, who do you pick?

Wentz but Wentz isn't a free agent next year. If he was he would be making about 6 to 8 million more on his extension.

Again, it is like people aren't grasping the rate QB salaries are rising in relationship to the franchise tag. Your choice is to negotiate at the tag or lose your QB who will still get paid by someone.

 

[Dback Jon]

Wentz but Wentz isn't a free agent next year. If he was he would be making about 6 to 8 million more on his extension.

Again, it is like people aren't grasping the rate QB salaries are rising in relationship to the franchise tag. Your choice is to negotiate at the tag or lose your QB who will still get paid by someone.

I am not asking who is a free agent. I am just from a pure performance standpoint, assuming each are available, who you would rather have.

 

[jf-08]

I am not asking who is a free agent. I am just from a pure performance standpoint, assuming each are available, who you would rather have.

Wentz

 

[82CardsGrad]

You keep saying a one year tag. It's like you either don't understand the economics or just refuse to read it.

You have to treat his contract negotations as a multi year tag or you are just letting him walk.

Chris - the Franchise Tag is strictly a ONE YEAR deal. If the Cowgirlz were to Tag Dak for the 2020 season, they can't also apply the Tag to future years. At best, they would have to wait until the conclusion of the 2020 season and then try to Tag him for 2021.

What about that are you not grasping? If the rumors are true about Dak already being offered a multi-year deal by Dallas in excess of $30 million a year. I would guess the deal would be for a minimum of 4 years, likely 5... and would therefore include a hefty guarantee in excess of $50-$60 Million...
In this scenario, I just don't see the rationale to support why Dak would go down the Franchise Tag route...

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I am not asking who is a free agent. I am just from a pure performance standpoint, assuming each are available, who you would rather have.

Performance: Prescott. You can't perform when not on the field and Wentz has missed 40% of his games the last few years.

Talent: Wentz but it is surprisingly close. Since Wentz is hurt all the time you have to use game averages to compare them. Prescott has a better completion percentage and a much lower INT percentage. Wentz throws for 17 more yards per game and has a higher TD percentage. Prescott has a 5 higher career QBR due to his efficiency.

I probably have some anti Cowboy bias in my pick of Wentz as well.

That said, these guys should make the same money. Adding two years of QB inflation to Wentz's existing contract and you are at 36 - 38 million

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Chris - the Franchise Tag is strictly a ONE YEAR deal. If the Cowgirlz were to Tag Dak for the 2020 season, they can't also apply the Tag to future years. At best, they would have to wait until the conclusion of the 2020 season and then try to Tag him for 2021.

What about that are you not grasping? If the rumors are true about Dak already being offered a multi-year deal by Dallas in excess of $30 million a year. I would guess the deal would be for a minimum of 4 years, likely 5... and would therefore include a hefty guarantee in excess of $50-$60 Million...
In this scenario, I just don't see the rationale to support why Dak would go down the Franchise Tag route...

....

Since math is not your friend, I will show you where the work is already done for you.

This is why he is claiming that. QB Franchise Tag this year is $24,865. The second year is 120% of that of $29,838. Then it goes to 144% or $42,966.72

So the Cowboys at minimum are looking at a 3 year extension of $97,669 or an average salary of $32,556

Thus, there is zero way that Dak accepts 30 million when he can make more than that just playing on the franchise tag.

The Cowboys are going to want more than 3 years so likely adding $2-3 million more for each additional year.

My guess is it will be a 5 year deal at about $38 million or he just plays out on the tag

Option #1. 150 million for 5 years. Free Agency at Age 31.

Option #2. 98 million for 3 years. Free Agency at age 29. Using 10 year average QB salary increase and assuming current performance it would be 37 and 39.5 accordingly on those years.

Two routes. One equals 150. The other equals 174.5. That is a 16.3% salary differential.

So if the "guaranteed money" is only 60 on option 1. The riskier option 2 is roughly 45% of that year 1, 105% of that year 2 and 155% of that year 3.

The entire core of your arguement of risk management versus injury is completely negated in option 2 in just a single year. If Prescott plays 1 year on the tag and stays healthy, he will exceed your proposed option 1 in guaranteed earnings and in lifetime earnings

 

[82CardsGrad]

....

Since math is not your friend, I will show you where the work is already done for you.




Option #1. 150 million for 5 years. Free Agency at Age 31.

Option #2. 98 million for 3 years. Free Agency at age 29. Using 10 year average QB salary increase and assuming current performance it would be 37 and 39.5 accordingly on those years.

Two routes. One equals 150. The other equals 174.5. That is a 16.3% salary differential.

So if the "guaranteed money" is only 60 on option 1. The riskier option 2 is roughly 45% of that year 1, 105% of that year 2 and 155% of that year 3.

But you're assuming it's a foregone conclusion that the Cowgirlz would Tag Dak in 3 successive years... I could be wrong, but I believe that has only happened once (Cousins). And again, it brings into play the chance for Dak to suffer an injury - catastrophic or not - that could 100% derail his career, or, be serious enough that the Cowgirlz no longer want to invest Tag money on him... With a Tag, the only guarantee you have is just the one year...

I get the math Chris and, as I've been trying to articulate (obviously not clearly enough), I don't see gambling on 3 successive Tags as a prudent move... If it were me, I would take the longer-term deal with the guaranteed money...

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Even if they only tag him once he will make tag level money on another deal.

I added to my above post to explain that the guaranteed money in your proposed deal washes after 1 year.

Looking at it all, the only way I could see them getting him signed for 30 million is 3 years fully guaranteed with a mutual option year 4.

This avoids the pain of the multi tag, gets him his guaranteed money, ensures no one gets burned year 4, and then encourages another contract at the age 29 year he would have gotten option 2.

 

[Jersey Girl]

A healthy Wentz all day, every day. We'll see this year as Wentz is supposed to be 100%.

Saying "a healthy Wentz" is kinda like an oxymoron lately though.

 

[NJCardFan]

Saying "a healthy Wentz" is kinda like an oxymoron lately though.

He blew out his knee in 2017 and was playing with a cracked back last year. Too early to tell to say he's injury prone but if he gets hurt this year, he'll have that label and the Eagles will be royally screwed because, well, Cody Kessler.

 

[Cardinal]

The difference, though is 2 fold. #1, Prescott was a 4th round draft pick while Wentz was the #2 pick in the draft and #2, Wentz played a big part in the Eagles winning a Super Bowl having led his team to an 11-2 record and throwing 33 TD's in 13 games all the while not having a Zeke Elliot, a Dez Bryant, and not having Prescott's offensive line(and there's no reason to believe that had he not gotten injured the Eagles still wouldn't have won the Super Bowl). And Prescott has Elliot to thank for much of his success which is evident given his pedestrian numbers during Elliot's suspension. During that time the Cowboys went 3-3 and Prescott has passing yard games of, 176, 159, 175, 102, 332, 212 with a combined 5 TD and 7 INT. That's 5 TD's in 6 games 3 of which were in 1 game.

Also, if you're trying to say Prescott is better than Wentz, you're stark raving mad. You give Wentz a stud RB and a top tier WR and he'll feed Prescott his lunch. Yards per game, Wentz is better at 253.8 as compared to 226.5 and Prescott has 16 games where he passed for less than 200 yards as compared to 9 by Wentz. In short, No way Prescott is worthy of Wentz or any other top tier QB money. He's being silly not taking the $30 mil.

I appreciate your long rant but I was merely giving a perspective about how Dak’s agent might be thinking when it comes to his client’s new contract. I do not think Dak is better than Wentz but as we have seen, timing of new contracts is more important than actual worth.

 

[Cardinal]

What they made in their first few season have no bearing on it. You are payed based on draft status nothing more or less. You dont get to make that up later just because you feel like it.

But in this specific case, it might affect why Dak and his agent want to compare a new contract to that of Wentz. If you’ve been a bargain QB, you’re likely going to want to get paid no matter what (aka guaranteed money).

No “hometown discounts”, which the Cowboys front office desperately wants.

 

[Shane]

But in this specific case, it might affect why Dak and his agent want to compare a new contract to that of Wentz. If you’ve been a bargain QB, you’re likely going to want to get paid no matter what (aka guaranteed money).

No “hometown discounts”, which the Cowboys front office desperately wants.

Offering him 30 a year as has been reported is hardly a home town discount... He’ll he’s not even worth the that.

 

[NJCardFan]

I appreciate your long rant but I was merely giving a perspective about how Dak’s agent might be thinking when it comes to his client’s new contract. I do not think Dak is better than Wentz but as we have seen, timing of new contracts is more important than actual worth.

Gotcha.

 

[Jersey Girl]

He blew out his knee in 2017 and was playing with a cracked back last year. Too early to tell to say he's injury prone but if he gets hurt this year, he'll have that label and the Eagles will be royally screwed because, well, Cody Kessler.

Agreed, which is why I added the "lately" part. The Eagles fans will lose their minds if he gets injured again this year.

 

[Jetstream Green]

But you're assuming it's a foregone conclusion that the Cowgirlz would Tag Dak in 3 successive years... I could be wrong, but I believe that has only happened once (Cousins). And again, it brings into play the chance for Dak to suffer an injury - catastrophic or not - that could 100% derail his career, or, be serious enough that the Cowgirlz no longer want to invest Tag money on him... With a Tag, the only guarantee you have is just the one year...

I get the math Chris and, as I've been trying to articulate (obviously not clearly enough), I don't see gambling on 3 successive Tags as a prudent move... If it were me, I would take the longer-term deal with the guaranteed money...

They will not tag him even once since they are going to go the tag route with Elliot... because that's what one does with running backs