OT on Trey Lance

[Germz249]

Some 9er fans at work were saying he almost put it in and we got lucky with the stop. He trucked/laid out Simmons.

He had room to dive for the pylon but wanted to go head on to prove something. He was running at full speed while Simmons only took a few steps and he couldn’t even get through Simmons. I seriously think some fans are delusional and tries to reach for something.

 

[Russ Smith]

Some 9er fans at work were saying he almost put it in and we got lucky with the stop. He trucked/laid out Simmons.

He had room to dive for the pylon but wanted to go head on to prove something. He was running at full speed while Simmons only took a few steps and he couldn’t even get through Simmons. I seriously think some fans are delusional and tries to reach for something.

Plus he fumbled so if he had gotten over the line it would have either been a touchback if Jones recovered it out of bounds, or our ball inside the 1 if he recovered it inbounds.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Plus he fumbled so if he had gotten over the line it would have either been a touchback if Jones recovered it out of bounds, or our ball inside the 1 if he recovered it inbounds.

Well no, if he had gotten over the line it’s instantly a TD unless he crossed after losing control of the ball in which case he never crossed the line with the ball.

 

[Russ Smith]

Well no, if he had gotten over the line it’s instantly a TD unless he crossed after losing control of the ball in which case he never crossed the line with the ball.

Sorry I explained that poorly. If he had "trucked" the Cardinal as claimed and gotten into the endzone, it still wouldn't have been a td because he lost the ball before he crossed the goalline. It's just not clear on replay if Jones was inbounds or out of bounds so either our ball at the 1 or depending on spot a touchback.

Simmons obviously took a big hit they took him in for concussion protocol but he not only stopped him short, he caused a fumble that we recovered.

 

[Russ Smith]

On the goalline play local tv has another angle and Lance was down before the ball came out, it was moving but wasn't out until after so not a fumble.

Also, the 49ers media are not dummies all week they've been asking Lance if he's ok because of all the big hits he took. Lance is saying the hit at the goalline was the only big hit he took all the others were glancing blows. Shanahan under fire for all the missed 4th downs and it appears Shanahan has already decided as soon as Jimmy G can play again, he's the starter unless they've got so many losses by that point it makes sense to play for next year. the implication is as they kept saying on tv the 49ers do NOT want to play Lance this year they want to let him watch and learn they know he's not ready and they're concerned he will get hurt if he plays too much this year because he's just so inclined to take guys on instead of getting down.

Also they said there were multiple plays sunday where the 49ers had less guys in the pattern than normal because they were so concerned about pass protection and realized Lance was likely to take off and run anyways so it made sense to have less guys in the pattern and more guys to block. This appears to be why he was effective running the ball, many of the plays they had 2 guys in the pattern and everyone else blocking.

the play at the goal line was supposed to be a pass play, the Cards covered the primary target(not sure who) and Lance immediately took off and ran. Shanahan was ok with it but people who are familiar with it say the 2nd option was open but Lance had already started running.

On the play where the FB lined up under Center and Hicks came flying up and stopped him on 4th down, they ran the exact same play 2 weeks earlier against the eagles. Shanahan was asked if that was wise since it was on film and he said the problem is we(the FB) chose the wrong option there, there's multiple options off that alignment we chose the wrong one. Meaning he didn't want the FB to run it he was actually probably supposed to pitch it to someone else but he just ran it and got stopped.

Also the guys on tv were raving about Zaven Collins they said there's multiple plays where the 49ers thought they had us outnumbered to get the edge on runs and Collins not only held up he took on a blocker and busted up the play. One was the 4th down run by Lance but there were apparently 2-3 other plays where he completely busted up the play. And of course the obvious, Watt absolutely destroyed the interior of the SF O line.

 

[Russ Smith]

He's STILL not practicing and it appears Jimmy G starts against the Colts and Sudfeld is the backup. The fans want Lance to be the QB but there's a fairly clear group of players who are saying they think Jimmy should continue to start because Lance isn't ready. Alex Mack was diplomatic but said I want the guy who's going to win games and right now Jimmy is healthy and ready to go and Trey isn't. He said from what he's seen right now the offense runs better under Jimmy due to his experience, he likes Lance, was solid in his first start but he was clearly saying their best chance to win games is Jimmy.

You knew this was going to happen but it's amazing it's happened this early in the year, the players and coaches don't want to play Lance as teh starter they know he's not ready, they want to win, and they don't want him to get hurt playing when he doesn't really know what he's doing yet. But the fans see the losses and they want a change.

It will be interesting, Shanahan is not perfect but I don't think this is his fault I think they would be nuts to fire him but there is talk his job is on the line this year.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Knowing you're set at QB is the most important factor to success in this league.

 

[Shane]

He's STILL not practicing and it appears Jimmy G starts against the Colts and Sudfeld is the backup. The fans want Lance to be the QB but there's a fairly clear group of players who are saying they think Jimmy should continue to start because Lance isn't ready. Alex Mack was diplomatic but said I want the guy who's going to win games and right now Jimmy is healthy and ready to go and Trey isn't. He said from what he's seen right now the offense runs better under Jimmy due to his experience, he likes Lance, was solid in his first start but he was clearly saying their best chance to win games is Jimmy.

You knew this was going to happen but it's amazing it's happened this early in the year, the players and coaches don't want to play Lance as teh starter they know he's not ready, they want to win, and they don't want him to get hurt playing when he doesn't really know what he's doing yet. But the fans see the losses and they want a change.

It will be interesting, Shanahan is not perfect but I don't think this is his fault I think they would be nuts to fire him but there is talk his job is on the line this year.

His record is what it is... overall and this year he should be on the hot seat.

 

[Russ Smith]

His record is what it is... overall and this year he should be on the hot seat.

I guess I see it as a coach who can get a team to a SB with Jimmy G at QB is not the problem. The injuries is the problem but I don't know if that's him, or the GM that decided to keep relying on the same guys who got hurt last year.

 

[Krangodnzr]

He's STILL not practicing and it appears Jimmy G starts against the Colts and Sudfeld is the backup. The fans want Lance to be the QB but there's a fairly clear group of players who are saying they think Jimmy should continue to start because Lance isn't ready. Alex Mack was diplomatic but said I want the guy who's going to win games and right now Jimmy is healthy and ready to go and Trey isn't. He said from what he's seen right now the offense runs better under Jimmy due to his experience, he likes Lance, was solid in his first start but he was clearly saying their best chance to win games is Jimmy.

You knew this was going to happen but it's amazing it's happened this early in the year, the players and coaches don't want to play Lance as teh starter they know he's not ready, they want to win, and they don't want him to get hurt playing when he doesn't really know what he's doing yet. But the fans see the losses and they want a change.

It will be interesting, Shanahan is not perfect but I don't think this is his fault I think they would be nuts to fire him but there is talk his job is on the line this year.

On JT O'Sullivan's QB school on Youtube, he did a real good run down of Lance's first start. Shanahan ran a number of looks he doesn't normally run with Garropolo, but Lance really struggled to throw normal NFL throws. Often very late, and he does this weird bouncing that effects his ball placement. Lance has a lot to work on, but if he can fix his flaws, he has a chance to be great in their system.

 

[Krangodnzr]

It will be interesting, Shanahan is not perfect but I don't think this is his fault I think they would be nuts to fire him but there is talk his job is on the line this year.

I went back and forth with Ouchie on this. I think at the end of the day, you have to hold people accountable for their record.

There was specific game time decisions that Shanahan could have made differently to beat the Cardinals. That's on Shanahan.

And all the talk about injuries, we saw Arians go 8-8 with Blaine Gabbert and a less talented roster than Shanahan has had for most of his time with the Niners. I don't watch every game, but they generally have the talent to still win at a .500 clip even without Jimmy G.

 

[Russ Smith]

I went back and forth with Ouchie on this. I think at the end of the day, you have to hold people accountable for their record.

There was specific game time decisions that Shanahan could have made differently to beat the Cardinals. That's on Shanahan.

And all the talk about injuries, we saw Arians go 8-8 with Blaine Gabbert and a less talented roster than Shanahan has had for most of his time with the Niners. I don't watch every game, but they generally have the talent to still win at a .500 clip even without Jimmy G.

Last year their injuries were insane, OL, DL, QB, WR just decimated. I thought they were a SB contender going into this year if they had any kind of luck but tons of injuries again.

I think the going on 4th down stuff was a function of assuming we were going to score more than we did and he was afraid if he fell too far behind and had to throw, Lance would be in trouble. It wound up losing the game for him so he's responsible for that but I think it was a unique situation, rookie QB first start, against an elite offense he thought I need to score 30 points to win so I'm going for it if it's short yardage. Cost him the game

 

[Bkbobo]

It may be too late for Shanahan to develop Trey. He may be out of San Francisco to get that opportunity. Oh well

 

[Krangodnzr]

Last year their injuries were insane, OL, DL, QB, WR just decimated. I thought they were a SB contender going into this year if they had any kind of luck but tons of injuries again.

I think the going on 4th down stuff was a function of assuming we were going to score more than we did and he was afraid if he fell too far behind and had to throw, Lance would be in trouble. It wound up losing the game for him so he's responsible for that but I think it was a unique situation, rookie QB first start, against an elite offense he thought I need to score 30 points to win so I'm going for it if it's short yardage. Cost him the game

I think sometimes analytics can blow up in your face. Just like the argument about the end of the Bills-Titans game. Yeah the analytics say go for it, but the reality is that if you don't get the TD, you lose. You kick the field goal which is probably a 95% chance of making, you go to OT.

Shanahan has to trust his defense there. Kick the FGs, don't leave points on the field over and over.

 

[Russ Smith]

On JT O'Sullivan's QB school on Youtube, he did a real good run down of Lance's first start. Shanahan ran a number of looks he doesn't normally run with Garropolo, but Lance really struggled to throw normal NFL throws. Often very late, and he does this weird bouncing that effects his ball placement. Lance has a lot to work on, but if he can fix his flaws, he has a chance to be great in their system.

Watched some of that just now, he winds the plays back so many times it's annoying but kind of interesting. He agrees with the 49ers show the goalline 4th down is a pass play. They both agreed the FB tripping over the OL hurts the play. Where they differ is the 49er show they said option 1 is the RB Mitchell, that's covered, option 2 is the FB and he's open, but he's late because he tripped. The problem is after Mitchell is not open, Lance immediately decides he's going to run so now instead of slowing up to give the FB time to get more even with him, he accelerates to the corner so now that throw is back against his body or a flip and it's just too congested. the TE 82 is open too, but again because he's running that's a back late across the body throw that will get picked. So because he didn't have Mitchell and said I'm running, he lost 2 chances to throw for a TD.

O'Sullivan is probably right he should have tried to jump over the amount of contact is probably not any different but he probably scores if he does that.

The run by Mitchell that was interesting he's 100% right, even though Mitchell got good yards, if Lance keeps the ball he probably scores it was so well blocked if he'd have kept it he's inside the 10 yard line before anybody would have been close to him.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Watched some of that just now, he winds the plays back so many times it's annoying but kind of interesting. He agrees with the 49ers show the goalline 4th down is a pass play. They both agreed the FB tripping over the OL hurts the play. Where they differ is the 49er show they said option 1 is the RB Mitchell, that's covered, option 2 is the FB and he's open, but he's late because he tripped. The problem is after Mitchell is not open, Lance immediately decides he's going to run so now instead of slowing up to give the FB time to get more even with him, he accelerates to the corner so now that throw is back against his body or a flip and it's just too congested. the TE 82 is open too, but again because he's running that's a back late across the body throw that will get picked. So because he didn't have Mitchell and said I'm running, he lost 2 chances to throw for a TD.

O'Sullivan is probably right he should have tried to jump over the amount of contact is probably not any different but he probably scores if he does that.

The run by Mitchell that was interesting he's 100% right, even though Mitchell got good yards, if Lance keeps the ball he probably scores it was so well blocked if he'd have kept it he's inside the 10 yard line before anybody would have been close to him.

O'Sullivan's videos are great because he breaks down all of the concepts that are kind of boilerplate and tells you what the QB is supposed to look at based on the coverage. Not many analysts making videos like O'Sullivan.

You can see that Lance is clearly a great athlete, but teams are going to beat him up once they bottle up the runs better. He has major mechanical issues and those issues aren't always fixed. He also stuggles on basic reads right now. I think people that are saying that Lance is a guaranteed stud are looking past his flaws too much. As inexperienced as Murray was, you didn't see as many problems in his game as you see with Lance.