Per USA Today ..... Justin Upton Being Discussed in Trade Talks!

[azsportsfan01]

OK, but if batting order is so important then why did he do so much better in 2009 than 2010 when in 2009 he got much more time batting 5th-9th?

The 3rd and 4th spots in the order are supposed to be your best hitters and they guys who can drive in runs. Upton is one of our best hitters and by putting him at the bottom of the order not only gives him fewer RBI chances but also fewer at bats. If you want someone to be your 3rd or 4th hitter then let him hit there. You can't be moving them all over the place in the order because pitchers will pitch differently depending on the situation. You want Upton batting in the best situation possible.

 

[coyoteshockeyfan]

The 3rd and 4th spots in the order are supposed to be your best hitters and they guys who can drive in runs. Upton is one of our best hitters and by putting him at the bottom of the order not only gives him fewer RBI chances but also fewer at bats. If you want someone to be your 3rd or 4th hitter then let him hit there. You can't be moving them all over the place in the order because pitchers will pitch differently depending on the situation. You want Upton batting in the best situation possible.

I meant what makes batting order so important to individual performance, the batting order isn't what makes the hitter productive. Nobody is denying that the heart of the order is where you stick your best guys. The contention above was that A) Justin Upton has been "screwed with" in terms of batting order (he hasn't been), and B) that this has presumably hurt his performance (it hasn't).

 

[azsportsfan01]

I meant what makes batting order so important to individual performance, the batting order isn't what makes the hitter productive. Nobody is denying that the heart of the order is where you stick your best guys. The contention above was that A) Justin Upton has been "screwed with" in terms of batting order (he hasn't been), and B) that this has presumably hurt his performance (it hasn't).

But the order does effect your production. If you hit 8th you will not see much in the way of pitches since the pitcher is behind you. You hit 7th and you won't have many guys on base. You hit 6th and you get fewer at bats than the 3rd spot which gives you fewer chances to get extra base hits, home runs, ect.

Yes when you boil it down if you are a good hitter you should be able to hit anywhere in the lineup, but hitting higher up in the order will give you more and better chances to show your value.

 

[coyoteshockeyfan]

But the order does effect your production. If you hit 8th you will not see much in the way of pitches since the pitcher is behind you. You hit 7th and you won't have many guys on base. You hit 6th and you get fewer at bats than the 3rd spot which gives you fewer chances to get extra base hits, home runs, ect.

Yes when you boil it down if you are a good hitter you should be able to hit anywhere in the lineup, but hitting higher up in the order will give you more and better chances to show your value.

Obviously getting more plate appearances in a season is important, and the biggest reason for the argument of why you'd want a better player in the 2nd spot than cleanup (although the old schoolers would never agree to that). But in terms of non-opportunistic stats, a player's performance shouldn't vary much except in the extreme cases you mentioned like 8th or 9th. Nevertheless, Upton getting time in the juicy 2nd-4th spots (aside from his rookie year, as an 19 year old plopped into the middle of the Diamondbacks successful pennant campaign) has been remarkably consistent. A legit argument could be made if he had seen a lot of time deep down in the order, but he hasn't.

 

[DWKB]

coyoteshockeyfan bringing it strong in this thread. Good job.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Um... Justin Upton got a whopping 13 plate appearances outside of the 2nd-4th spots in the batting order last season, and spent the overwhelming majority of the season batting 3rd.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=uptonju01&year=2010&t=b

OK, but if batting order is so important then why did he do so much better in 2009 than 2010 when in 2009 he got much more time batting 5th-9th?

Nice job!

 

[Brandon_Webb]

People always seem to forget Upton is only 23 years old. Most baseball players don't hit their prime until the mid to late 20's. Upton is still at least 2 years from his prime.

Also agree with this, and with most of the opinions so far in this thread. It'd have to be a substantial haul to deal him away. He's absolutely still got the potential of a Griffey, he just needs it to click.

 

[Diamondback Jay]

According to a report on WEEI, talks with Boston involving Upton has pretty much died. Towers' asking price from the Sox? Jacoby Ellsbury, Dice-k Matsuzaka, Daniel Bard, Clay Buchholz, Ryan Kalish and Michael Bowden.

Matsuzaka's inclusion in trade talks on Arizona's end confuses me, but the rest out to tell you exactly how much Arizona's willing to listen to offers. Sure, they'll listen but only if you're willing to buy high.

 

[Dback Jon]

According to a report on WEEI, talks with Boston involving Upton has pretty much died. Towers' asking price from the Sox? Jacoby Ellsbury, Dice-k Matsuzaka, Daniel Bard, Clay Buchholz, Ryan Kalish and Michael Bowden.

Matsuzaka's inclusion in trade talks on Arizona's end confuses me, but the rest out to tell you exactly how much Arizona's willing to listen to offers. Sure, they'll listen but only if you're willing to buy high.

As well he should. Towers is not a fool

 

[overseascardfan]

As everyone has mentioned, unless your getting a Mark Teixiera package TEX received from ATL you hang up. I wouldn't doubt teams are going to try to low ball ARZ (see NYY). I would have replaced the Dice-K with Casey Kelly in that BOS package if I was Towers. Upton may not be as established as Teixiera was but he could turn out to be better over the long run.

 

[The Commish]

According to a report on WEEI, talks with Boston involving Upton has pretty much died. Towers' asking price from the Sox? Jacoby Ellsbury, Dice-k Matsuzaka, Daniel Bard, Clay Buchholz, Ryan Kalish and Michael Bowden.

Matsuzaka's inclusion in trade talks on Arizona's end confuses me, but the rest out to tell you exactly how much Arizona's willing to listen to offers. Sure, they'll listen but only if you're willing to buy high.

Jesus - I can see why Boston hung up. They'll just pay for him when he's a free agent in 4 years.

 

[overseascardfan]

COL seems to be willing to trade up to 4 or 5 players for Upton, but which 4?

 

[Lefty]

Throw in Toronto as another club that might be interested.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/...tin-Upton-Boston-Red-Sox-Arizona-Diamondbacks

 

[coyoteshockeyfan]

Two interesting articles from Fangraphs on the predicted value of Justin Upton.

Few choice quotes:

So, while we can dissect Upton’s strengths and weaknesses based on his big league performance to date, we have to keep his youth in mind. Most players who get to the big leagues as quickly as Upton turn out to be very good players, or even superstars. His potential is obvious.
...
Trading for Upton comes with a huge potential payoff, but reaching superstar status now looks a little less likely than it did a year or two ago. So, while a team acquiring Upton could hope for a big return, they’d also have to keep in mind that he might end up settling in as a good-not-great player.

At the minimum, I’d imagine we can all agree he’d get at least $100 million for the next five years if he were a free agent this winter, or twice what he’s owed. I think he’d get more than that, personally, but even if we work off the lower figure, we’re looking at $50 million in surplus value.

If you take Victor Wang’s estimates of prospect value, that’s something like a top-10 hitting prospect and a top-10 pitching prospect for Upton. Or, to put that into current player terms, that’s something like Mike Moustakas and Mike Montgomery from the Royals, and that’s at the low end of Upton’s value.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/justin-uptons-future-value/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/an-upton-trade-would-be-unique/

 

[overseascardfan]

I now believe Upton is going to be dealt this offseason, there are just too many teams interested. Hopefully Towers hits a home run and fills a majority of ARZ's holes because it looks like we are not going to be filling through FA.

 

[azsportsfan01]

You guys do know that Kevin Towers is a one man rumor mill, right? Any rumor you could possibly think of he would tell. This is going to become standard operation procedure for the Diamondbacks. No need to get worked up about it.

 

[Diamondback Jay]

More rumors, and please take these all at face value:

Boston reportedly has countered and a third team (Atlanta) is supposedly involved in the talks.

Here's the initial rumored discussion:

Arizona would acquire Jonathan Papelbon, Ryan Kalish, Anthony Rizzo and Michael Bowden.

They would then turn and flip Papelbon to Atlanta for Jair Jurrjens and Craig Kimbrel.

Kimbrel would likely go in to 2011 in Arizona as closer and his age (22) makes him very attractive as a long term answer at closer. Kimbrel has a repertoire that is highlighted by a nasty fastball that has been clocked in the mid-to upper-nineties and power slider. He has excellent poise and looks the part of a dominant closer. He reminds me a bit of Brad Lidge (at his best and with much more poise). His control needs some work, but being he's 22 and just 2 years into his professional baseball career, there's plenty of hope.

Rizzo has incredible tools. He has a nice overall approach at the plate, with a good eye, quick bat speed, impressive timing and gap power to all fields. In the field, Rizzo is an above average defender with a solid arm and surprising lateral quickness for his size. He also is a "leader" and a guy who players follow by example. I could honestly see him being a 30-35 homer guy, with a high batting average, RISP and OBP. Sort of reminds me a bit of Todd Helton and could see him being that type of player.

Kalish is an outstanding athlete with excellent hand-eye coordination, who manages his at bats very well, waiting for pitches he can drive and taking a walk when it’s appropriate. He is a consistent and solid contact hitter and hits line drives to all fields. He has loft to his swing and has begun using his legs in his swings, which has helped him develop some ok power. He'll never be a 30-40 home run guy, but he could be a 15-20 homer guy who does everything else right. He has good speed and is capable of stealing a base or taking an extra base. Doesn’t have the speed for center field so he will likely end up in right field as Upton's replacement. Sort of reminds me a bit of a Darin Erstad type of player, a gritty dirtbag who will never overwhelm you with steals or home runs, but will do all the little things right that would give him staying power in the bigs as a starter.

Bowden projects as a nice 3-4 starter, and Jurrjens already has proven he's capable of pitching in the bigs and should be an immediate starter for Arizona.

I hate the idea of trading Upton.. However, this may be one of the best they can get if the rumor has legs.

 

[azsportsfan01]

Out of curiosity where did you see this rumor? It is by far the most realistic, in terms of asking price. If we were to do it I would subsitute Bowden since he isn't the pitching prospect he once was.

 

[overseascardfan]

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarep...8arizona-diamondbacks-justin-upton-bluff.html

After reading this article and believing what Gammons said, ARZ is trying to fill all their needs with the Upton trade by getting young guys who are a few years away from arbitration and close to the majors while ridding themselves of Upton's $51M contract. Makes sense why Towers was hired, he was in the same situation in SD where they didn't have the money to bring in high priced FA's so Towers had sometimes work with as little as $2M for FA's and found some steals. I think that in 5 years the D'Backs will be put up for sale.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Unless we get a godfather deal, I just see no reason to make the trade. You build around guys like Upton, you don't trade him away. It would be hard to speculate this is anything but a money deal. While Upton has his warts, he's also putting up HOF #'s, and his stats are on par with guys like A-Rod. You just don't trade that kind of talent, especially when he's signed to a reasonable contract.

 

[The Commish]

Unless we get a godfather deal, I just see no reason to make the trade. You build around guys like Upton, you don't trade him away. It would be hard to speculate this is anything but a money deal. While Upton has his warts, he's also putting up HOF #'s, and his stats are on par with guys like A-Rod. You just don't trade that kind of talent, especially when he's signed to a reasonable contract.

You're kidding right? He has the potential to do these things but obviously hasn't. Let's not make the kid out to be Pujols just yet.

 

[Diamondback Jay]

Out of curiosity where did you see this rumor? It is by far the most realistic, in terms of asking price. If we were to do it I would subsitute Bowden since he isn't the pitching prospect he once was.

Word of mouth

I agree on Bowden being down a few notches, however I still think he has enough upside to take a look at.

Of course, the Red Sox fans I know bitched about the deal thinking they'd be getting "ripped off" as a result. Nevermind that Upton at 24 already is established as a All-Star caliber player with upside, while Kalish is 22 and in AAA still (both play RF); most think Bard's ready to close now and think Papelbon is expendable; and Rizzo's not even the guy they want starting long term at 1B (Lars Anderson). As for Bowden, he's the seventh or eighth best pitching prospect in the organization.

They're as bad as Yankee fans. They think the Diamondbacks should hand over a 24 year old talent for garbage.

 

[Diamondback Jay]

You're kidding right? He has the potential to do these things but obviously hasn't. Let's not make the kid out to be Pujols just yet.

No, but I think his point was that Upton's the type of player you build a roster around. He's no Pujols, but 23 year old All-Star caliber players (with 60 homers in three seasons) don't exactly grow on trees.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

You're kidding right? He has the potential to do these things but obviously hasn't. Let's not make the kid out to be Pujols just yet.

What would I be kidding about? Obviously hasn't what? Do your homework before asserting things, his numbers already compare favorably to all time greats. I am still somewhat skeptical about Justin, but unless they get a king's ransom for him, there is no point in moving him.

 

[82CardsGrad]

What would I be kidding about? Obviously hasn't what? Do your homework before asserting things, his numbers already compare favorably to all time greats. I am still somewhat skeptical about Justin, but unless they get a king's ransom for him, there is no point in moving him.

Are you talking about Strikeouts??