PFF drafting

[Zeem_Freeze]

Last year we seemed to draft almost exclusively BPA according to PFF grades... very curious to see if it continues...

That’s one part of the process that us fans will never know. How is the power split between GM and HC when it comes to player selection? certainly different dynamics between Keim and Arians/Wilkes/Kingsbury... that’s why it’s so tough for me to abandon Keim despite his horrid drafting success recently. We truly don’t know.

 

[Veer]

I really like PFF. It's not the be-all and end-all. But in terms of subjective player grading it doesn't get any better than PFF.

PFF's hit and miss rate is on par with other draft pundits. You have to realize that PFF is mainly about production and not about traits. However, without certain traits you can't succeed at the pro level. You can fill college stat sheets all you want. But if you are a well below average athlete, you won't sniff a chance in the NFL. On the flip side, many elite athletes dominate the college game on talent alone, but don't have the right mindset/work ethic or football IQ to become successful pros. Then there's even some below average athletes that get overshadowed at the college level, but carve out a nice NFL career because of hard work and determination.

Bottom line, you can't look into a player's mindset until you get him into a pro environment.

 

[WildBB]

I really like PFF. It's not the be-all and end-all. But in terms of subjective player grading it doesn't get any better than PFF.

PFF's hit and miss rate is on par with other draft pundits. You have to realize that PFF is mainly about production and not about traits. However, without certain traits you can't succeed at the pro level. You can fill college stat sheets all you want. But if you are a well below average athlete, you won't sniff a chance in the NFL. On the flip side, many elite athletes dominate the college game on talent alone, but don't have the right mindset/work ethic or football IQ to become successful pros. Then there's even some below average athletes that get overshadowed at the college level, but carve out a nice NFL career because of hard work and determination.

Bottom line, you can't look into a player's mindset until you get him into a pro environment.

They have to LOVE playing the game. No matter the situation or the record.

 

[kerouac9]

I really like PFF. It's not the be-all and end-all. But in terms of subjective player grading it doesn't get any better than PFF.

PFF's hit and miss rate is on par with other draft pundits. You have to realize that PFF is mainly about production and not about traits. However, without certain traits you can't succeed at the pro level. You can fill college stat sheets all you want. But if you are a well below average athlete, you won't sniff a chance in the NFL. On the flip side, many elite athletes dominate the college game on talent alone, but don't have the right mindset/work ethic or football IQ to become successful pros. Then there's even some below average athletes that get overshadowed at the college level, but carve out a nice NFL career because of hard work and determination.

Bottom line, you can't look into a player's mindset until you get him into a pro environment.

I actually fundamentally disagree with this, and it's what guys like Justin Pugh say about their grades, too. PFF's play-by-play grades are all about style points — did you "win" the down, and by how much? Those grades are made always and proudly without the context of what's happening and why, especially on the offensive line.

Evaluations like Football Outsiders are based on production and they say they can only grade the player within the context of the offense with the specific players around him. Then you have to forecast out from there.

I've been caught too many times hearing people say "so-and-so has a great grade from PFF! Second-best in the league" and then he turned out to suck. I can't remember who it was — maybe it was Jeremy Bridges — that had a very high PFF grade and couldn't even get on the field.

 

[Veer]

I actually fundamentally disagree with this, and it's what guys like Justin Pugh say about their grades, too. PFF's play-by-play grades are all about style points — did you "win" the down, and by how much? Those grades are made always and proudly without the context of what's happening and why, especially on the offensive line.

Evaluations like Football Outsiders are based on production and they say they can only grade the player within the context of the offense with the specific players around him. Then you have to forecast out from there.

I've been caught too many times hearing people say "so-and-so has a great grade from PFF! Second-best in the league" and then he turned out to suck. I can't remember who it was — maybe it was Jeremy Bridges — that had a very high PFF grade and couldn't even get on the field.

OL is even more subjective than any other position. However, look at the rankings and almost every lineman who is considered good or great is among the top of the rankings. A player like Pugh won't ever grade very well and therefore he is calling out PFF. He gets by with smarts and experience, give him that. But physically he is damaged goods, can't move anybody in the run game or block effectively on long developing pass plays. Pugh and Shipley never get no push. You can't run behind them. That's why Drake was better than DJ, among other reasons, since Drake could slip through the stagnant interior while DJ needs more push to reach full steam.

 

[Veer]

They have to LOVE playing the game. No matter the situation or the record.

Even if you love the game you can fail. That's if you aren't smart enough, not dedicated enough, bad coaching, thrown to the wolves too eary, bad habits. I'd argue that the vast majority of NFL draft prospects loves the game.

Look at it this way: Almost all people love to go on vacation. But some of them don't work hard enough to afford a nice vacation. Some chosen few don't even need to work hard to afford it, but those people are the rare exception. And then some work extremely hard yet still can't afford it unfortunately.

 

[kerouac9]

OL is even more subjective than any other position. However, look at the rankings and almost every lineman who is considered good or great is among the top of the rankings. A player like Pugh won't ever grade very well and therefore he is calling out PFF. He gets by with smarts and experience, give him that. But physically he is damaged goods, can't move anybody in the run game or block effectively on long developing pass plays. Pugh and Shipley never get no push. You can't run behind them. That's why Drake was better than DJ, among other reasons, since Drake could slip through the stagnant interior while DJ needs more push to reach full steam.

Weird that we had a top-rated run game with a bunch of OL who can't block.

If the rankings just confirm the guys you think are good, they don't provide any additional insights. It's the oddballs that pop up in their system that you have to take a closer look at; if they don't work out, then you have to start doubting their process.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

So, if we drsfted strictly by PFF grades and they said Andy Isabella was better than DK Metcalf, then.....well that is all that needs to be said

Sent from my mystical communication warp drive device thingy

 

[Harry]

Even if you love the game you can fail. That's if you aren't smart enough, not dedicated enough, bad coaching, thrown to the wolves too eary, bad habits. I'd argue that the vast majority of NFL draft prospects loves the game.

Look at it this way: Almost all people love to go on vacation. But some of them don't work hard enough to afford a nice vacation. Some chosen few don't even need to work hard to afford it, but those people are the rare exception. And then some work extremely hard yet still can't afford it unfortunately.

I’m all in with Wild on this one. Of course you have to have skill and ability but by game 14 with a half dozen painful injuries you’d better be a warrior who loves the game if you’re going to be effective.

 

[football karma]

I like PFF

I think it works better for some positions than others

it seems like their QB metrics/analysis have decent predictive ability

I think in many cases its still a highly subjective assessment process that only has the appearance of objective analytics --

to that (and K9s point above) -- the Cards o-line has a rep of being bad, so I think that expectation creeps into how they grade.

yet somehow the Cards ended up with the best rushing offense they have had in nearly 30 years, top 2 in yards per attempt in the NFL, and yet IIRC, only Sweezy is ranked better than average.

 

[Jetstream Green]

I think the best way to describe the last draft is the Cards are gong full analytics which PFF also bases their conjecture

 

[HoodieBets]

I think the best way to describe the last draft is the Cards are gong full analytics which PFF also bases their conjecture

I think the cards are trying to take a moneyball approach. Would not surprise me if a WAR stat comes up soon and will be the barometer for MVP like how it is in baseball.


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[Jetstream Green]

I think the cards are trying to take a moneyball approach. Would not surprise me if a WAR stat comes up soon and will be the barometer for MVP like how it is in baseball.


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Yeah, that's what I meant

 

[AZman5103]

If Keim want's to go pure PFF grading, Im fine with it...because IMO we have less of a chance of drafting a complete bust. We may not find the diamond in the rough, but Ill take players that actually make it to a 2nd contract on a regular basis.

 

[kerouac9]

I think the cards are trying to take a moneyball approach. Would not surprise me if a WAR stat comes up soon and will be the barometer for MVP like how it is in baseball.


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Well, this is the Cards' main analyitcs guy, so I'm not holding my breath on us cracking the code:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ctadkins/

 

[Jetstream Green]

Well, this is the Cards' main analyitcs guy, so I'm not holding my breath on us cracking the code:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ctadkins/

Well he did go to a great university in Texas, so I call your bluff

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Analytics are so subjective it’d be beyond stupid to base your draft entirely on them.

maybe Keim did and that’s how we got Andy Isabella instead of McLaurin. No where in this world was Isabella a better player instead, maybe, in the analytical world.

 

[kerouac9]

Analytics are so subjective it’d be beyond stupid to base your draft entirely on them.

maybe Keim did and that’s how we got Andy Isabella instead of McLaurin. No where in this world was Isabella a better player instead, maybe, in the analytical world.

I'm not sure you understand what analytics are, based on this.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I'm not sure you understand what analytics are, based on this.

I chuckled when I read that.

Analytics = Objective

But like anyone who has followed sports closely for awhile understands, it's hard to always account for the context.

WR A puts up 1600 yards, 15 TDs for NW Montana Technical University. PFF watches his games and gives him a 99 grade because he dominated at his level and because they look smart if they are right.

WR B puts up 900 yards, 7 TDs for Ohio State University. He gets a 70 grade from PFF. WR B went against 5 draft picks, including 1 top 5 pick.

The objective view is that WR A is better, but in reality WR B might be significantly better. Scouting is about deciphering the context and figuring out if the guy is actually talented enough and wants it enough.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Analytics are so subjective it’d be beyond stupid to base your draft entirely on them.

maybe Keim did and that’s how we got Andy Isabella instead of McLaurin. No where in this world was Isabella a better player instead, maybe, in the analytical world.

Actually had Keim followed PFF specifically he would have drafted DK Metcalf

 

[Mainstreet]

So is Pro Football Focus a subscription service and are there any free sites with player grades?

I usually follow NFL draft tracker during the draft but I do not see any position grades for players now.

 

[Veer]

I'm getting tired of Metcalf vs Isabella. Metcalf's production at Ole Miss was abysmal. He wasn't even their 2nd option. He had many nagging injuries throughout his college career. Yeah, Metcalf made some amazing plays downfield with one of the best passers in the NFL throwing to him. But he also had some crucial drops because he can't run over the middle and has issues catching in traffic. A physicsl freak of his caliber shouldn't almost drop out of round 2. But about 28 or 30 other teams passed twice on Metcalf. What I want to say is that Metcalf wasn't a no-brainer over Isabella. Isabella may still turn into Edelman Lite for us. Metcalf might do a Braylon Edwards, put up a decent season or two early on, suffer from bad dropsies and nagging injuries and disappear while Isabella still balls out for us...

 

[Dr. Jones]

Weird that we had a top-rated run game with a bunch of OL who can't block.

If the rankings just confirm the guys you think are good, they don't provide any additional insights. It's the oddballs that pop up in their system that you have to take a closer look at; if they don't work out, then you have to start doubting their process.

Scheme matters IMO. Wider OL splits combined with superior misdirection and a QB who runs well.

I'm getting tired of Metcalf vs Isabella. Metcalf's production at Ole Miss was abysmal. He wasn't even their 2nd option. He had many nagging injuries throughout his college career. Yeah, Metcalf made some amazing plays downfield with one of the best passers in the NFL throwing to him. But he also had some crucial drops because he can't run over the middle and has issues catching in traffic. A physicsl freak of his caliber shouldn't almost drop out of round 2. But about 28 or 30 other teams passed twice on Metcalf. What I want to say is that Metcalf wasn't a no-brainer over Isabella. Isabella may still turn into Edelman Lite for us. Metcalf might do a Braylon Edwards, put up a decent season or two early on, suffer from bad dropsies and nagging injuries and disappear while Isabella still balls out for us...

If that makes you tired stay away from the Ayton vs. Doncic debate on the Suns forum! I will be trashing that crap for the next DECADE!

 

[Veer]

Scheme matters IMO. Wider OL splits combined with superior misdirection and a QB who runs well.

Exactly. Couldn't put it better. The run schemes KK/Kugler have drawn up were a thing of beauty. Always motioning and confusing the defense. Once KM started to rush himself, defenders were put in a bind. Then we found a juicy RB who had the suddeness to exploit the holes that opened up. As far as winning one vs one battles at the LoS, our OL was still pedestrian. Sweezy is really the only member of that unit who can consistently drive a defender backwards and that's basically what PFF is rating.

 

[Harry]

So is Pro Football Focus a subscription service and are there any free sites with player grades?

I usually follow NFL draft tracker during the draft but I do not see any position grades for players now.

NFL.com uses a numerical ratings system.


https://www.nfl.com/prospects/andy-isabella?id=32194953-4156-2722-bf26-62181351a224