Pick your center (poll)

[Goldfield]

Who is our choice, and why?

 

[Goldfield]

I would be thrilled with any of those guys, besides maybe Ostertag.

but my top picks would be:
-Camby
-Okafor
-Ratliff

In that order...

 

[Errntknght]

Vlade. I'd like to see the team using a high post offense and Divac could tutor Lampe and D'Antoni on how to make it effective. It's not of great value to have your center out high just to run pick & roll/fade plays. You need to have the right type of off ball movement to create good scoring opportunities, requiring the high post guy to be a good passer. Vlade's also a very smart player and I'd hope that would somehow rub off on all of our guys.

 

[George O'Brien]

No poll of this sort works. The problem is price. Each of us have an estimate of how much a particular player will command in the market place and how using that much of the cap space works for the Suns overall plans. Below are my estimates of the what it is likely to take to get certain players:


Currently Dampier is scheduled to make $8.1 million unless he opts out. He has an agent with a reputation of going for the biggest possible salary. It is likely that he will get a contract starting at least $10 million while the Hawks and Jazz have unlimited cap space. My money is on him going to Atlanta because he would have a great shot at making the all star team in the East. I'm not even sure Dampier would be a good fit for the Suns plus he has a history injuries, but he will be out of their price range anyway.

Camby has said he wants $60 million for six years. This would require starting at about $7.5 million. I can't see him worth more than $30 million over four years, which would start at $6.5 million. Even that may be too much. He has been injured more than he has been healthy and is not a physical defender like Dampier. Denver has a lot of cap space and can afford him, even if they grumble about it.

Okur seems inclined to go where the money is, which suggests he will go to a team like the Jazz with lots of cap space. Last summer, the Jazz offered Jason Terry a three year $22 million deal, which translates into $6.8 million this season. If they like Okur, I would have to think they would go at least to the $7 million to start range. That is simply too much for the Suns for a guy who is not a great defender.

Divac has to go in here somewhere. He made $12 million this season, but will have to take less. However, it seems the Kings are inclined to do what it will take to keep him. I'm guessing that means paying him $6 to $7 million a year - far more than he is worth to anyone but the Kings. Since they can re-sign Divac and still use their MLE, it seems unlikely they would not pay what it takes to keep him.

Mark Blount has mostly been linked to teams with only an MLE to offer, which would be around $5 million - four years for $24 million. I like him at just slightly above that price, but not a lot more. Blount has been a decent rebounder/shot blocker for his career but did not score much until this season. He played well, but it is hard to justify huge bucks on a guy who has had only 1/2 year of starter quality play.

Adonal Foyle has been a career backup but is a great rebounder and shot blocker. He made $4.4 million this season and showed just enough late in the season to suggest he may get at least that much this coming season. Assuming it costs $4.4 million first year to get him, he is worth considereing but may be too pricy since he has minimal offensive skills. Blount can shoot while Foyle really can't.

Etan Thomas is a restricted free agent at $3 million this season. He will get well over $4 million a possibly and entire MLE. He would be rated higher if he was unrestricted, but the Wizzards are almost certain match any "reasonable" offer.

Ostertag is a real wild card. He made $8.6 million this past season, but is unlikely to get more than MLE unless perhaps the Hawks become interested. I'm guessing he will get just about the MLE from some team in the Eastern Conference.

None of the players are franchise players who can justify agressive pursuit without thought of price. If someone is available for well below their expected price, then they are worth considering.

 

[Chaplin]

I'm not sure why you picked him for this poll, but I had to go with Chris Bosh out of all those choices--I also checked the boxes for Camby and Divac. Camby is wishful thinking because, like Okur, I think Camby would be good for the Suns, but would be way too expensive.

To be realistic, I guess I would pretty much go with Divac--because he can be a good mentor and be not too expensive.

 

[Goldfield]

I'm not sure why you picked him for this poll, but I had to go with Chris Bosh out of all those choices--I also checked the boxes for Camby and Divac. Camby is wishful thinking because, like Okur, I think Camby would be good for the Suns, but would be way too expensive.

To be realistic, I guess I would pretty much go with Divac--because he can be a good mentor and be not too expensive.

I just really like Bosh alot. He is way to thin right now but he reminds me of a young Shaq when it comes to his size. He is gunna fill out ALOT as he gets older.


I agree we will have to overpay a center. But were talking about the most important position in the game. I would much rather over pay and have a good center, than hold back and have a Little Jake starting for us again.

We are overpaying a SF now, I would rather start Zarko & his small salary at SF and have a Camby at center.

 

[elindholm]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that, by the end of next season, Dampier will have proved to be the best choice, taking both his production and his contract (whatever he gets) into consideration. Camby will be hurt, Okur is a scrub, Okafor isn't a center (at least not in the West), and Divac is slowing down.

 

[Joe Mama]

I just really like Bosh alot. He is way to thin right now but he reminds me of a young Shaq when it comes to his size. He is gunna fill out ALOT as he gets older.

Shaquille O'Neal was at least 50-60 pounds heavier than Chris Bosh when he came into the NBA. I'm sorry, but I don't understand that comparison at all. I suspect Bosh will probably end up the size of a slightly shorter Kevin Garnett. I do really like him though. With his all-around game he would be my first choice off that list as well.

BTW I would take Marcus Camby in a heartbeat if he was consistently healthy.

Joe Mama

 

[Goldfield]

Shaquille O'Neal was at least 50-60 pounds heavier than Chris Bosh when he came into the NBA. I'm sorry, but I don't understand that comparison at all. I suspect Bosh will probably end up the size of a slightly shorter Kevin Garnett. I do really like him though. With his all-around game he would be my first choice off that list as well.

BTW I would take Marcus Camby in a heartbeat if he was consistently healthy.

Joe Mama

Joe, If Shaq was 60lbs heavier than Bosh (who is 210) my compairison is good.

Shaq was very slender(compaired to now) in college & his first year in the NBA. Bosh has that same frame "type". I am not saying he will be the size of shaq, I am saying he will become a pretty big body when all is said & done. I would no be suprised if he added 50-60lbs of good bulk in the next 5 years. If he does that he will be a very dominant center IMO.

 

[Joe Mama]

Joe, If Shaq was 60lbs heavier than Bosh (who is 210) my compairison is good.

Shaq was very slender(compaired to now) in college & his first year in the NBA. Bosh has that same frame "type". I am not saying he will be the size of shaq, I am saying he will become a pretty big body when all is said & done. I would no be suprised if he added 50-60lbs of good bulk in the next 5 years. If he does that he will be a very dominant center IMO.

Shaquille O'Neal was around 285 pounds when he came into the NBA. I can't remember whether he had just completed his sophomore or junior season at LSU when he declared for the draft. Chris Bosh on the other hand was about 210 pounds when he came into the NBA last season. I'm not sure where one could find how heavy Shaq was back at LSU, but I've seen footage of the 1989 McDonald's All-American game. Shaquille O'Neal was at least 250 pounds then.

I understand what you are saying. I just don't believe that Bosh will ever break the 240 pound barrier. I do think he would be a good center at that weight however. He would be nice planning in the middle alongside Amare Stoudemire because he is a good shooter how to at least 20 feet.

Joe Mama

 

[George O'Brien]

Shaquille O'Neal was around 285 pounds when he came into the NBA. I can't remember whether he had just completed his sophomore or junior season at LSU when he declared for the draft. Chris Bosh on the other hand was about 210 pounds when he came into the NBA last season. I'm not sure where one could find how heavy Shaq was back at LSU, but I've seen footage of the 1989 McDonald's All-American game. Shaquille O'Neal was at least 250 pounds then.

I understand what you are saying. I just don't believe that Bosh will ever break the 240 pound barrier. I do think he would be a good center at that weight however. He would be nice planning in the middle alongside Amare Stoudemire because he is a good shooter how to at least 20 feet.

Joe Mama

Bosh is an out of position power forward. He may be heavier than his listed 6'10" 210, but if Okafor isn't a center in the West - Bosh isn't even a full fledged power forward in the West. By comparison, Dice is listed at 6'9" 245, which is short but not much lighter than Voskuhl, Okur, and other centers. But Dice gets slammed because he isn't big enough.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that, by the end of next season, Dampier will have proved to be the best choice, taking both his production and his contract (whatever he gets) into consideration. Camby will be hurt, Okur is a scrub, Okafor isn't a center (at least not in the West), and Divac is slowing down.
elindholm

I've always listed Dampier as the "best" of the centers in terms of talent. My concern is that he has a history of injuries and his stats did not get strong until his "contract year".

There has been debate over whether his stats reflected a substantial improvement in his performance or the fact that Murphy was injured most of the season. I think he is actually a better player, but I suspect his stats would decline on a team like the Suns.

Erick Dampier
Golden State Warriors
Position: C
Height: 6-11 Weight: 265
College: Mississippi State '97

2003-04 Statistics
PPG 12.3
RPG 12.0
APG .8
SPG .45
BPG 1.85
FG% .535
FT% .654
3P% .000
MPG 32.5

To give a comparison,

Yao Ming
Houston Rockets
Position: C
Height: 7-6 Weight: 310
From: China
Player file | Team stats

2003-04 Statistics
PPG 17.5
RPG 9.0
APG 1.5
SPG .27
BPG 1.90
FG% .522
FT% .809
3P% .000
MPG 32.8

Dampier is not considered to be especially talented on the offensive end, which might be a problem for the Suns. He is certainly not an ideal high post center. But I have no doubt he will put up better numbers than anyone else under consideration - which is why he will get the most money.

 

[Chaplin]

Why exactly did you compare him to Yao Ming?

 

[George O'Brien]

Why exactly did you compare him to Yao Ming?

Just for the hell of it.

Actually it is hard to figure out what kind of player to use a bench mark. Yao is an intesting comparision because he is the heir apparent to Shaq as the top center in the NBA. It was only by happenstance that it turns out that they each played roughly the same number of minutes per game.

Realistically, the only reason the Suns might consider spending the kind of money Dampier would cost, is if they thought HE was the answer to getting a championship. Even if he starts at $8.5, it is a chunk of money over six years:

8.5
9.5
10.7
11.9
13.4
15.0
-----
69.0

 

[elindholm]

I don't think the Suns need their center to be a big scoring option. They have Stoudemire and Marion who both should be at 20+ ppg. Finding a third scorer from the group of Johnson, trade acquisition, draft acquisition, FA acquisition, or developing youngster (whew) shouldn't be too hard.

If Dampier were healthy and motivated, I think he'd be a good fit. Those are big "ifs," and I'm not really pushing for him. I do confess, however, that he intrigues me more than any other FA this summer after Bryant. He is my first choice as a FA center, if that's the route the Suns decide to go, even with all of his question marks and the salary he'll likely command.

This year, Dampier was a solid general defensive presence, a shot blocker to be reckoned with, and the NBA's best offensive rebounder -- by a long shot, in fact. That all sounds great to me.

 

[elindholm]

Realistically, the only reason the Suns might consider spending the kind of money Dampier would cost, is if they thought HE was the answer to getting a championship.

I disagree. The team has to get good before it can be great. These third-tier centers like Okur or Foyle would improve the team, but not enough to make it really good. One of those plus Bryant would do it, but that's unlikely to happen (and even then, they wouldn't be championship contenders).

Aside from acquiring Bryant, I don't think there's any strategy for significantly improving the Suns that's likely to be more effective than spending the FA money on Dampier. That's different from saying that I'm sure it would work. But the #7 pick isn't going to make that big a difference now, "developing" the young Euros for a year isn't going to make a big difference now, and trading away Marion plus whoever for McGrady isn't going to make a big difference now.

Dampier might be a top-five center next year. He was this year. If he comes to the Suns and pans out, they would take a giant step forward. They wouldn't be championship-caliber, but you have to crawl before you can walk.

 

[F-Dog]

This year, Dampier was a solid general defensive presence, a shot blocker to be reckoned with, and the NBA's best offensive rebounder -- by a long shot, in fact. That all sounds great to me.

These are the two things that would bother me about the Suns signing Dampier--I mean, aside from the possibility he would start dogging it as soon as his name was affixed to the dotted line:

1. His game is in the paint, which means that the Suns would have to try and run their offense with both sides of the post clogged by their starting big men; and

2. Even last year, his big, impressive, borderline-All-Star year, the Warriors were a better team when he wasn't on the floor. When you're the NBA's best offensive rebounder and your team is still better off with you on the bench, that has to raise a big red flag over the rest of your game, doesn't it?


Anyway, I still think that Dampier won't opt out this year. He needs to put up one more year of solid numbers for everybody to forget what all the fuss was about, and he'll be handsomely compensated for doing so if he stays with the Warriors.

A new coach may spell trouble for Damp if he stays, though.

 

[elindholm]

1. His game is in the paint, which means that the Suns would have to try and run their offense with both sides of the post clogged by their starting big men

There should be room for both. It's not like Dampier just stands under the rim and waits for a teammate to miss. And besides, Stoudemire has to learn how to operate from the elbow.

2. Even last year, his big, impressive, borderline-All-Star year, the Warriors were a better team when he wasn't on the floor. When you're the NBA's best offensive rebounder and your team is still better off with you on the bench, that has to raise a big red flag over the rest of your game, doesn't it?

I didn't watch enough of the Warriors to know whether that was true. It seemed to me that they tended to do well when he was going through a stretch of monster games, but I haven't checked that. Do you have a sense of what it was about his play that made his teammates worse?

I do think he'll opt out. Even if he doesn't get the mega-deal he's looking for, he'll have a lot more guaranteed money than he would otherwise -- always an important consideration for a player whose health and motivation are a threat to vanish at a moment's notice. And I'm pretty sure I've read that he's been miserable with the Warriors all year.

 

[Chaplin]

2. Even last year, his big, impressive, borderline-All-Star year, the Warriors were a better team when he wasn't on the floor. When you're the NBA's best offensive rebounder and your team is still better off with you on the bench, that has to raise a big red flag over the rest of your game, doesn't it?

I'm not trying to be belligerent, but since you live in North Carolina, just how many Warrior games to you actually see?

 

[F-Dog]

1. His game is in the paint, which means that the Suns would have to try and run their offense with both sides of the post clogged by their starting big men

There should be room for both. It's not like Dampier just stands under the rim and waits for a teammate to miss. And besides, Stoudemire has to learn how to operate from the elbow.

There's no room for both, and also for smaller players to drive to the basket, though. The Suns' half-court offense would have to be run against a defense that's dug in and knows pretty much what to expect.

I agree with you about Amare, but he shouldn't be living at the elbow, either. A lot of what makes him good happens on the low block.

2. Even last year, his big, impressive, borderline-All-Star year, the Warriors were a better team when he wasn't on the floor. When you're the NBA's best offensive rebounder and your team is still better off with you on the bench, that has to raise a big red flag over the rest of your game, doesn't it?

I didn't watch enough of the Warriors to know whether that was true. It seemed to me that they tended to do well when he was going through a stretch of monster games, but I haven't checked that. Do you have a sense of what it was about his play that made his teammates worse?

No clue--I haven't watched enough Warriors games to say. I have to rely on the stats analysis:

82games.com (you'll probably have to get to Dampier's page by yourself, I believe they reject outside linkages)

By the stats, the Warriors were slightly worse on offense and defense, with a lower FG% and a higher FG% allowed, with Damp on the court. They were a better rebounding team, but not by enough to make up for the FG% differential.

Glancing at the team stats, it looks like Van Exel was the guy who was really dragging the Warriors down. Dampier should have been dragging them up while he was on the court, though, and it wasn't happening.

 

[Goldfield]

I don't think the Suns need their center to be a big scoring option. This year, Dampier was a solid general defensive presence, a shot blocker to be reckoned with, and the NBA's best offensive rebounder -- by a long shot, in fact. That all sounds great to me.

Your 100% correct. We NEED DEFENSIVE help, and rebounding at the center position.

Someone who can help Amare rebound & make big plays blocking shots.

If he is a good Offensive rebounder we could be an awsome team with the two forwards we have that are also good at offensive rebounding.

 

[elindholm]

All those plus/minus and similar statistics suffer from severe selection effects, especially when you're talking about a bad team like the Warriors that plays a lot of garbage time. Was Dampier more likely to get big minutes when going against a team with a big center? If so, the Warriors would be expected to do less well, since generally opponents with big centers are better than average teams. And so on.

Regarding multiple people in the paint, I don't think it would be that big a problem, if the team could actually design some, um, you know, "plays." Dampier's in the lane, then he moves out and sets a screen, and Johnson curls around and drives to the dotted circle. Or whatever. Even O'Neal knows how to get out of the lane once in a while.

Sure, if you have five guys with no team concept each laying claim to "their" spot, then it could be a problem. But if the coaching staff can't move beyond that, the team is doomed anyway. Let's try not to be that pessimistic, eh?

 

[F-Dog]

All those plus/minus and similar statistics suffer from severe selection effects, especially when you're talking about a bad team like the Warriors that plays a lot of garbage time. Was Dampier more likely to get big minutes when going against a team with a big center? If so, the Warriors would be expected to do less well, since generally opponents with big centers are better than average teams. And so on.

Sure, there are problems--for scrub players, you can pretty much throw +/- out the window. However, the Warriors used Dampier pretty much the same way the Suns are planning to use him, and it seems clear that he wasn't helping to prevent them from being a lousy team when he was on the court. Comparing Dampier's page with Camby's (or even McDyess'), for instance, seems like it would be worthwhile, since all three played similar roles. (McDyess' stats have sample-size issues, of course.)

Sure, if you have five guys with no team concept each laying claim to "their" spot, then it could be a problem. But if the coaching staff can't move beyond that, the team is doomed anyway. Let's try not to be that pessimistic, eh?

I'm not saying the problems would be insurmountable, just that there would be problems. A player with more range (like Camby) would make the Suns' offense run more smoothly and (potentially) more effectively.

 

[George O'Brien]

I think the discussion will be academic. GS will offer Dampier a long term contract because they really can't afford to lose him. If he turns them down, then I think Atlanta has the best shot at him. He gets all the money he wants and has the inside track to make the All Star team.

Unless they re-sign Joel Przybilla.

 

[slinslin]

Okafor measured in at 6'8 1/4 in socks says an insider.

 

[George O'Brien]

I've been pushing to draft Okafor, but I never believed he would be a full time center. Still Ben Wallace isn't much taller...