Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
I’ve already indicated I see a major need to augment the personnel. For a near playoff team, there’s much change that must be accomplished. Keep in mind the Cards will face a significantly more difficult schedule next season. As The Red Queen said, “Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!" It won’t be good enough to stand pat. The Cards will have to significantly improve just to contend.
One of the choices that’s always critical is how do you balance the draft and free agency. Also is there a trade to be had, maybe involving draft picks? Then there’s the issue of immediate needs versus securing a future.
Looking to the draft the Cards gave up their 4th round pick in the Hopkins trade and their 6th in the Golden deal. The Cards are not projected to receive any compensatory picks. I have no problem with getting players for picks from this draft but the Cards must strategize carefully with so many holes and so few picks. First some sources are recommending the Cards take a first round edge rusher to guard against Jones leaving. I don’t think the Cards can afford to do that. It will, however, give Reddick more leverage. Re-signing him is a near imperative. I also don’t like trading down in this draft. Scouting was hard and the further down you go in this pool the more uncertain evaluations become. Of course should the Cards’ first round pick come up with no one on their board worth that pick, you do move down, but don’t drop far and only move if you’re paid over slot. Otherwise just take your best shot.
The next question to ask is what position will likely have viable selections you can pass on in round 1. I realize free agency will alter this landscape, but with the certain cap reduction and so many holes to fill, signing significant impact players in free agency will be challenging. The Cards can cut about $10-12 million, but that puts their likely cap space in the 30s. Luckily more than half the teams will be in worse shape. About $5 million will go to the rookie pool. I think Reddick & Campbell will also cost about $5 million each. The Cards only have 4 RFAs. Only Gardeck might draw some interest. Arnold, K Peterson and Blackson may not make the top 51 contracts. They should all be less than a million. Hundley and Peko will be a little over $1 million. Peters & Golden should be sign-able for $3 million each. This means that if the Cards agree on my “keeps” your looking at a little over $10 million for free agency. That does buy you a few players but no big names.
With only 5 draft picks, positions that require multiple players would make sense to target in free agency. Unless they keep Peterson, CB will be one such position. One thing I like to target is players coming off injuries that are not likely permanently debilitating. Shaquill Griffin fought nagging injuries all season. He had several outstanding games and shows the skills needed to take a major step forward. I also like the idea of weakening a team you’ll play twice. He timed 4.38 at the Combine, so he has #1 CB speed. Sign him.
WR is the other slot that needs major help. Often the best options here are late releases, so the Cards may be patient. The good, blossoming young receivers are all going to cost too much. We’re looking for a project. Zay Jones was once an impact receiver. He’s still young and has all the needed skills. Admittedly 2 teams have failed to return him to his former status. Still he’s affordable and maybe Hopkins’ presence can inspire him. I wish Murray was more of a leader. That would help. Another target position might be RB. James Conner attracts me. A cancer survivor, he failed to utilize his potential last season. As recent as 2018 he was one of the top RBs in the league. You might get him for a first year salary of $4 million with incentives. He can catch the ball and cuts back well. He fits this offense.
Turning to the draft, I’d go CB if Farley or Surtain falls as a few predict. I would be reluctant to move up to get them. Horn, a popular choice, is more of a gamble, but you know I value legacy players. His game speed is not ideal, likely he will be timed about 4.45. He’s not really a ballhawk and I see him more as a number 2 corner than 1. He’s more of a press corner who willing supports against the run. I don’t like him at the Cards’ Draft spot. Certainly adding him to Peterson and Murphy would leave speed receivers free to blaze. Also if you’re going to take a CB who’s not a number one I’d take Elijah Molden if he falls to round 3. Like Horn he’s a legacy player with a similar skill set. However he’s more of a ballhawk and a blitzer. This flexibility makes him a better choice. Of course it’s always possible one of the top corners drops somewhat. If you want a corner badly, the Cards could offer their 3rd to move up to 12, that might get a number one corner. Sure a CB in early round one I is not regard as a sure thing. An edge rusher or OT would be a safer choice. This is all very early speculation. Much will change, especially between now and the draft. However, I expect to see a significant amount of action from the Cards. If I don’t see it, you won’t enjoy next season very much.
One of the choices that’s always critical is how do you balance the draft and free agency. Also is there a trade to be had, maybe involving draft picks? Then there’s the issue of immediate needs versus securing a future.
Looking to the draft the Cards gave up their 4th round pick in the Hopkins trade and their 6th in the Golden deal. The Cards are not projected to receive any compensatory picks. I have no problem with getting players for picks from this draft but the Cards must strategize carefully with so many holes and so few picks. First some sources are recommending the Cards take a first round edge rusher to guard against Jones leaving. I don’t think the Cards can afford to do that. It will, however, give Reddick more leverage. Re-signing him is a near imperative. I also don’t like trading down in this draft. Scouting was hard and the further down you go in this pool the more uncertain evaluations become. Of course should the Cards’ first round pick come up with no one on their board worth that pick, you do move down, but don’t drop far and only move if you’re paid over slot. Otherwise just take your best shot.
The next question to ask is what position will likely have viable selections you can pass on in round 1. I realize free agency will alter this landscape, but with the certain cap reduction and so many holes to fill, signing significant impact players in free agency will be challenging. The Cards can cut about $10-12 million, but that puts their likely cap space in the 30s. Luckily more than half the teams will be in worse shape. About $5 million will go to the rookie pool. I think Reddick & Campbell will also cost about $5 million each. The Cards only have 4 RFAs. Only Gardeck might draw some interest. Arnold, K Peterson and Blackson may not make the top 51 contracts. They should all be less than a million. Hundley and Peko will be a little over $1 million. Peters & Golden should be sign-able for $3 million each. This means that if the Cards agree on my “keeps” your looking at a little over $10 million for free agency. That does buy you a few players but no big names.
With only 5 draft picks, positions that require multiple players would make sense to target in free agency. Unless they keep Peterson, CB will be one such position. One thing I like to target is players coming off injuries that are not likely permanently debilitating. Shaquill Griffin fought nagging injuries all season. He had several outstanding games and shows the skills needed to take a major step forward. I also like the idea of weakening a team you’ll play twice. He timed 4.38 at the Combine, so he has #1 CB speed. Sign him.
WR is the other slot that needs major help. Often the best options here are late releases, so the Cards may be patient. The good, blossoming young receivers are all going to cost too much. We’re looking for a project. Zay Jones was once an impact receiver. He’s still young and has all the needed skills. Admittedly 2 teams have failed to return him to his former status. Still he’s affordable and maybe Hopkins’ presence can inspire him. I wish Murray was more of a leader. That would help. Another target position might be RB. James Conner attracts me. A cancer survivor, he failed to utilize his potential last season. As recent as 2018 he was one of the top RBs in the league. You might get him for a first year salary of $4 million with incentives. He can catch the ball and cuts back well. He fits this offense.
Turning to the draft, I’d go CB if Farley or Surtain falls as a few predict. I would be reluctant to move up to get them. Horn, a popular choice, is more of a gamble, but you know I value legacy players. His game speed is not ideal, likely he will be timed about 4.45. He’s not really a ballhawk and I see him more as a number 2 corner than 1. He’s more of a press corner who willing supports against the run. I don’t like him at the Cards’ Draft spot. Certainly adding him to Peterson and Murphy would leave speed receivers free to blaze. Also if you’re going to take a CB who’s not a number one I’d take Elijah Molden if he falls to round 3. Like Horn he’s a legacy player with a similar skill set. However he’s more of a ballhawk and a blitzer. This flexibility makes him a better choice. Of course it’s always possible one of the top corners drops somewhat. If you want a corner badly, the Cards could offer their 3rd to move up to 12, that might get a number one corner. Sure a CB in early round one I is not regard as a sure thing. An edge rusher or OT would be a safer choice. This is all very early speculation. Much will change, especially between now and the draft. However, I expect to see a significant amount of action from the Cards. If I don’t see it, you won’t enjoy next season very much.
