And Chip Kelly won't take advantage of Kaep's athleticism with the read option? In an offense that has similarities to what Kaep ran successfully at UNR? You're acting as if Kaep is destined to fail, when history has proven that this offense is pretty much tailor made for his skillset. It's not complicated to figure out, which is why guys like Bradford and Sanchez have had relative production within the scheme, with not even half of the athleticism that Kaepernick has. If the offense runs only six plays, it's fairly easy to pick up the nuances of the read option with a full offseason.
In addition, you're speculating that Kaep is going to be benched this year. If the 9ers have already paid his $11.9mil 2016 salary, it's likely that he at least gets the first few games of the season to start, even if the team selects a QB at #7, and there are no guarantees that Goff or Wentz will be there for the taking.
Furthermore, why are you faulting a guy who is reportedly declining a $4-5 million pay cut? That's not a "hilariously bad choice." That's close to 10% of the total guaranteed money on his contract in a business in which tomorrow is never guaranteed.
I can get on board with some of the Kaepernick criticism, but the sweeping generalizations are frankly bogus.
Sweeping generalizations? No.
Chip's offense is dictated by having the QB go to the huddle with THREE plays. Then based on what people such as the safety or middle linebacker, or defensive end (or whatever given the playcalls), the QB is supposed to realize which play to actually run.
Then from that point, they must remember the routes, have the timing down, and get the ball there.
In other words, it is far more mentally taxing and faster then anything he has done before.
Above all else, Chip needs a fast processing person at QB. That's #1 in his offense. If you can't do that, you can't run his offense period.
It's not sweeping generalization to say that Kaep has trouble processing information quickly from a football QB perspective. That has been his biggest knock, and it's quite correct.
It's not a sweeping generalization to say that Kaep, who has troubles moving from one receiver to another and keeping the timing down and awareness of defenders up to suddenly have to process three plays at once and think there is going to be trouble.
In addition, what happens when someone can't mentally process something, well they go into CYA mode. For Kaepernick, that would likely be running the ball in bad situations, something that can easily get him injured. Especially since he had three offseason surgeries, including one to his shoulder, thumb, and knee. That's not a good place to be when your athleticism is what you bring to the table far above anything else.
I'm speculating the 49ers will bench Kaep for many reasons. One reason to start a guy isn't 'we paid him money'.
It's a sunk cost. He was signed to a contract. They either had to get rid of him, or try to trade him. The writing is on the wall TJ.
They let his agent contact teams. They let Kaepernick visit the Broncos TWICE, once even the night before offseason workouts start. You think if Kelly really wanted Kaep there and thought he was a fit they would let him do that?
You couple that with what I lay out above, and the fact that he wasn't their starting QB to finish the year, and yes I'm not out on a limb.
He currently is not the starting QB. Gabbert is. Kelly's offense is probably the worst for Kaep. Plus there's a good chance, even if he isn't traded, he sucks in the preseason and is officially benched for good. Hell I can see them cutting him during preseason. Maybe not. But there can definitely be a valid case to do that.
He doesn't want to be there. That's a bad influence on the team. Not exactly what a team that has had so many problems the last couple of years wants with a new coaching staff. (A coach who had a mutiny in Philly happen to him no less). Sometimes it's best for a team to simply move on. At that point it's better to have a different QB on the roster or a person of another position. So as you can see, despite what they paid him, sometimes it's better to cut ties.
Now, if for some reason he lasts the season riding the pine (and maybe we get to see him most likely fail in an injury relief situation), they would have no choice but to cut him rather then paying another year an insane amount to sit the bench. That's not a sweeping generalization.
Could he have some limited success. Sure. Everyone once in a while good things will happen. He could go in there and throw one pass, or make a big run. He has talent. But consistently for the long term, no, not under Kelly's system.
As I laid out TJ it IS hilariously bad decision.
He can play ONE more season before that contract is cut (if not sooner) on a crappy team with an offense completely unsuited for him which I'm sure won't put out tape that helps further his career in 2017, one that has lost another offensive lineman Boone, doesn't have Boldin signed yet, Vernon Davis is gone......
Or he could get 2yrs 14 million in a restructure from Elway (as has been reported) which is more than 11.9, AND he gets to play on the defending champions.
Not just that though, he gets to play in an offense that would protect him, much like Harbaugh.
The only type of offense he's had success in, in the NFL. Now I personally don't think it'll work out in Denver if he goes, but IF he has a shot to succeed, it's an offense that covers for his mental limitations.
Those boots and rollouts in Kubiak's offense with a strong running commitment would allow Kaep the extra second or two in a normal offense where he keys in on one or two receivers allowing him the time and space to process everything and make better decisions. It also would give him some wide open running lanes, much better then a read option.
If Kaep was my QB, I'd rather have him get some 40 yard runs that are wide open lanes every once in a while in a Kubiak rollout or bootleg, rather then hoping he can take hits on a more 3-5 yards runs and every once in awhile can take one 40+ in Kelly's read-option. As I said again, he's already needing surgeries and isn't healthy still... even though he was benched and we're three months past the season.
I don't think it's a sweeping generalization to say that Kaep should be looking to go to a more controlled and safe offense like Harbaugh's in Kubiak. I mean they just won the Superbowl with a broken down Manning.
Also, since they have a great defense (even though it's had some defections it will still be good), Kaep won't feel the need to carry the team on his back, like he would with the 49ers.
So yes, more money, better team, better offense... all equals the best situation going forward for Kaepernick to make money. So yes, he could rest on his laurels and try to save 4.9 million, or he could get more over two years and position himself the best possible to get another contract.
That's the key. If he succeeds, and really only the Broncos give him that chance realistically, he can make 10x what he is protecting or more by being on the Broncos, and either re-signing there, or taking a free agent offer after doing some good in Denver. His other choice is realistically to stay in SF and sign a backup deal on whatever team with whatever offense and hope it sticks and a few years down the road maybe he gets another shot.
Life isn't fated. This choice could literally be the difference between out of the league or backup until he is.... or tens of millions more dollars as a low end starting QB. Sometimes players in wrong situations get labelled and are cast aside.
Plus Kaep has made it known he wants to leave, he gets a gift of an opportunity to start on the defending champions (ask yourself how many QB's have ever been given that opportunity), and he turns it down.
It IS a hilariously bad choice. That's not a sweeping generalization. It's a sane take on the facts.
It's not just him though, the 49ers could cave too. It's really more of the 49ers vs Kaep on which one will blink first. But the Broncos don't want to play that game. So the Broncos put the onus on them to figure it out, or the deal is off the table. That's why the Broncos have semi-pulled their offer. It's still there, likely until the draft, but then it's likely gone.
Kaep should blink because he's the one who wants out. He's the one who has to ultimately live with what happens either way. He's the one who has the parachute from a burning building.
The 49ers could easily cave too, eat 4.9 million for a draft pick, and getting out from the contract right now and not have to deal with it later, and not having Kaepernick potentially poisoning the well in SF either. Plus they are out on the limb. 11.9 million for a pine rider is alot worse then 7 million and a draft pick.
The Broncos have the power in the situation. Even if they need a QB, the 49ers need to unload Kaep more, and Kaep needs to leave more. The Broncos have options. There's Fitzpatrick. There's potentially Josh McCown. There's draft picks. There's still cuts.
The Broncos might even be able to get Kaep during pre-season cuts, but they want him early so they can get him into the system, and all that goes along with having a new starting QB.
Perhaps I'm making judgments on more complete information then you TJ. Nothing wrong with that, but perhaps now you see where I'm coming from.
