I am not sure why everyone keeps saying that we HAVE to win out.
If the Cards win out to go 11-5, they need EITHER one of the following:
a. SF loses at least one of the other two games (besides losing to the Cards)
OR
b. Panthers lose two of the last three (Jets, Saints, at Falcons).
None of the other teams matter. Dallas and Philly play each other so one of them will have 6 losses or more and everyone else already has 6 losses.
Even if we win out, we still need someone to lose 2 out of 3. But, that also comes into play even if we finish 10-6.
If the Cards win 2 of 3 to go 10-6, they could get in with EITHER of the following:
a. SF loses all 3 of their remaining games to be 9-7. Cards and Panthers are in.
b. Carolina loses 2 of 3 to finish 10-6 along with the Cards and loses head to head tiebreaker. SF just can't be 10-6 as well. So losing 0, 1, or 2 of their remaining 3 is OK.
That still leaves some of the other teams in the mix. But someone has to win the North and the East. GB can do no better than 9-6-1. The Bears would just have to lose once more. Either Philly or Dallas would have to lose twice more since they are both at 5 losses right now. One of them is guaranteed a loss in their head to head. They both have to play GB and Chicago yet (Dallas tonight of course) and the Cowboys also have to play GB. In the end, I don't think there will be a wild card from any of this group.
The bottom line is that the Cards need to be at least 10-6 and then get a lot of help. It won't be easy to get the two wins since at least one will have to be SF or Seattle.
SF losing all three is unlikely.
If it's going to happen it would probably be Carolina losing again to the Saints and then in the pressure of week 17 a Falcons team with nothing to lose and wanting to show some pride beating the Panthers to at least end their horrid season on a positive note at home.
It's still a long shot either way, but that's how it COULD happen.