PlayoffStatus.com

[OKCardFan]

Seen some discussion recently about stats and probabilities and who doesn't love that, right . So I thought I'd share this very informative website with everyone, in case they haven't seen it.

I'll just let the stats speak for themselves, but I particularly like these two:

Post Season Probability

NFC playoff picture

 

[abomb]

Great links. Magic number is 3.

 

[Dback Jon]

Great links. Magic number is 3.

That is not correct for Seattle and St. Louis.

Magic Number = number of games +1 (17) - wins (6) - opponents losses (7)

3 is to tie, 4 to win. We hold first tie breaker on San Fran, so theirs is 3.

 

[TheHopToad]

Here's another good one from CBS Sportsline. This one has the bracket as of the current week.

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace

If the season ended today, we would be the NFC #3 seed and host the Redskins in the wild card game, and providing the higher seeded teams all won, we would go to Carolina for the divisional round.

 

[Second Deck]

I thought we had a pretty tough out of conference schedule and it does not get any easier in the second half. Giants, Eagles, Vikings and Patriots. Every team we played out of division has an above 500 record.

 

[Totally_Red]

I thought we had a pretty tough out of conference schedule and it does not get any easier in the second half. Giants, Eagles, Vikings and Patriots. Every team we played out of division has an above 500 record.

It's a brutal schedule, especially when you consider five long flights to the east coast. Commentators and analysts love to say how weak the NFC West is, but the other side of the argument is how strong the AFC East and NFC East are. Besides the Seahawks have been devastated by injuries and the Niners and Rams have multiple problems beyond coaching issues.

But realistically the next three games will say a lot about the Cardinals. Win all three or even two out three, and the so-called experts will have to change their tunes.

 

[gusmahler]

Here's the Football Outsiders Playoff Odds Analysis:

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

99.5% chance of making the playoffs!

27.1% chance of having a bye week!

 

[BirdMan21]

http://www.coolstandings.com/football/football_standings.asp

98.6% chance of making the playoffs

http://www.coolstandings.com/football/playoff_picture.asp?sn=2008

38.4% chance of the #3 seed
35.7% chance of the #4 seed

 

[vince56]

Man we have a hard schedule this year. Panthers, Giants, Vikings, Redskins, Jets/Patriots, all division leaders! Cowboys, Dolphins, Bills & Eagles, all in position for the wildcard.

This is the craziest-hard schedule I've ever seen the Cards have, and to be 6-3 after only playing 3 division games against our weak rivals is just simply amazing.

I have newfound respect for the team after seeing the standings. Go cards

 

[Skkorpion]

Very nice thread to see. For us. In week 11. Surely a breakthrough in a cure for both types of diabetes is soon to follow.

 

[DoTheDew]

This might be the first time since 1976 that we go the whole season without ever being below .500.

That loss against Carolina hurts really bad right now, as we would be the 2 seed with a shot at the one seed by simply winning the next 2 games. That game was winnable if not for a fake FG attempt and a bad snap on an extra point.

 

[OKCardFan]

This might be the first time since 1976 that we go the whole season without ever being below .500.

That loss against Carolina hurts really bad right now, as we would be the 2 seed with a shot at the one seed by simply winning the next 2 games. That game was winnable if not for a fake FG attempt and a bad snap on an extra point.

I hear ya! I posted on here about how I really felt we were going to win that game, and we should have, but we "Let 'em off the hook". Heck, we'd be 7-2 now and Carolina would be 6-3 But that's spilled milk.

However, you'll notice that the Giants are the only other NFC team ahead of us now. And don't they come the "The Nest" following this week? You bet they do and it's definitely another winnable game!

But that's getting ahead of ourselves. One week at a time, right? Let's win the division this week in Seattle first and then we'll worry about the Conference!

 

[abomb]

Bump.

 

[SuperSpck]

Very nice thread to see. For us. In week 11. Surely a breakthrough in a cure for both types of diabetes is soon to follow.

 

[TheHopToad]

Very nice thread to see. For us. In week 11. Surely a breakthrough in a cure for both types of diabetes is soon to follow.

Looks like we're going to have to settle for skin cancer...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/3472260/Vaccine-for-skin-cancer-available-in-five-years.html

 

[Shzm13]

cowboys odds of missing the playoffs: 66%

 

[blindseyed]

You must be registered for see images

Arizona can clinch a playoff berth and the NFC West Division title with:

• a win and a SF loss and a Seattle loss or tie

 

[OKCardFan]

cowboys odds of missing the playoffs: 66%

As great as that sounds, I still like this one much better - Cardinals odds of missing playoffs: < 1%.

 

[gusmahler]

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

SEA, SF, and STL are all listed as 0.00% chance of making the playoffs and ARI is 100% in!

 

[TheHopToad]

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

SEA, SF, and STL are all listed as 0.00% chance of making the playoffs and ARI is 100% in!

Don't know what they're smoking. It's still mathematically possible for us to finish 7-9 and for the 49ers to finish 9-7.

Improbable, yes; Impossible, no.

Hope this isn't some big jinx.....

 

[Lloydian]

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

SEA, SF, and STL are all listed as 0.00% chance of making the playoffs and ARI is 100% in!

I'm not sure how much I can believe their numbers. They show Detroit with a 9.9% chance of going 0-16 and a 31.3% chance of going 1-15. That leaves a 58.8% chance of winning two or more games out of their last 6.

Their remaining games are vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Tennessee, vs. Minnesota, at Indianapolis, vs. New Orleans and at Green Bay.

Seriously, the Lions are more likely than not to win two of those games? And if they're just looking at all the possibilities without regard to likelihood, then isn't there more than a 0% chance that the Cardinals lose the division?

 

[Jttsaz]

Don't know what they're smoking. It's still mathematically possible for us to finish 7-9 and for the 49ers to finish 9-7.

Improbable, yes; Impossible, no.

Hope this isn't some big jinx.....

I don't know this for sure but I am assuming those numbers are based on what teams have done in the past. If it says 100% it probably means that no NFL team has ever made the playoffs at 3-7 behind 4 1/2 games...

 

[gusmahler]

I don't know this for sure but I am assuming those numbers are based on what teams have done in the past. If it says 100% it probably means that no NFL team has ever made the playoffs at 3-7 behind 4 1/2 games...

It has nothing to do with historical probabilities.

It's based on what the teams have done this year. As it explains on the page that they run every game the rest of the season and simulate the results based on team performance this year. After 10,000 simulations, they give the results.

It should be remembered that there is rounding involved. So although it says 100.0%, that doesn't mean we make the playoffs in all 10,000 simulations. We could fail to make the playoffs in as many as 4 or 5 seasons (depending on which direction they round) and it would still list us at 100.0%

But it should also be remembered that football outsiders thinks that STL, SEA, and SF are really bad teams.

Since each of those teams can't lose more than 2 games without elimination, it's likely that the simulator merely thinks that none of those teams can win 2 games while we simultaneously lose all our games (remembering that Football outsiders rates us as the 6th best team in the league).

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Don't know what they're smoking. It's still mathematically possible for us to finish 7-9 and for the 49ers to finish 9-7.

Improbable, yes; Impossible, no.

Hope this isn't some big jinx.....

We beat the whiners twice, so it wouldn't matter...

 

[DoTheDew]

We beat the whiners twice, so it wouldn't matter...

If we went 7-9 and they went 9-7 it doesn't matter what our record is against them.