Poem for Rod Graves and the Trade Downers

[kerouac9]

If, however, Landry or Quinn sneaks up to that group, then I would have no problem trading down, because Branch, Landry or Anderson should be there at #8 or #9.

And that bolded word is the exact reason why it would be folly to trade down. Landry is not going to be the same value as Branch or Anderson, and so you're going down a grade (half-a-grade at least) in order to pick up what would likely be a meaningless and useless third-round pick.

1) DL are more valuable than Safeties, even at the highest echelons
2) DL always are drafted earlier than they're supposed to
3) If you can take a guy that you like, you take him. Don't screw around trying to get a deal.

The only time a trade-down scenario makes sense to me is (1) if you have a great GM who can recognize talent and (2) there just aren't any players at your draft position that carry the grade for the pick. (1) is at best unproven for the Cards right now. (2) isn't the case, because Branch, Anderson, or Adams will all carry a Top 5 grade.

Jerry Angelo has been masterful at working trades down in the past and has gotten great value. The Steelers' GM has been less so. The Colts (Bill Pioli) and Pats have done a great job of moving around the draft and getting value. I don't think that Rod Graves and his track record of failure deserves such flexibility. When he went into the draft wanting to trade down four years ago it was a disaster.

 

[Scot1]

Jerry Angelo has been masterful at working trades down in the past and has gotten great value. The Steelers' GM has been less so. The Colts (Bill Pioli) and Pats have done a great job of moving around the draft and getting value. I don't think that Rod Graves and his track record of failure deserves such flexibility. When he went into the draft wanting to trade down four years ago it was a disaster.

This is a very good point. It's harder to make a REALLY bad mistake when there are 5 to 7 clearly Elite players and you have the fifth pick. I would aim to keep the pick, surely keeping it for Thomas, Anderson, Branch...maybe Peterson. Not for the QBs, probably not for Johnson--surely we could trade it usefully if he were left at 5.

Because the countervailing factor is the example of Wadsworth: if you choose two players, you have to incur twice as much bad luck to wind up with nothing. No pick is a sure thing--even a Rod Graves second-rounder is not a sure no-thing.