Possible Slide Explanation

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Calculated Risks From the Coach Who Never Punts - A Wealth of Common Sense

My brother has been hounding me for while now to look into the high school football coach who never punts. I finally did a deep dive by reading a few articles and watching some videos on Kevin Kelley, the head football coach at Pulaski Academy. Kelley says he read a report from a Harvard...

awealthofcommonsense.com

I actually read an in-depth piece about Pulaski. It’s an interesting read. I find it interesting that at one point he states that teams with more 20 yard plays win more but he’s essentially willing to eschew field position admitting that he’s willing to turn the ball over on the 5 rather than punt to the 40 or give up the ball on a failed onside kick at the 47 rather than kick deep for a return to the 33. Aren’t each instance where they fail there the equivalent of one or more 20 yard plays for the opposition?

I’d love to see a pro team actually attempt this for a season and see if it actually has legs. At the high school level I could see it working, but I truly wonder if it would translate. I wonder if the 4th down and/or onside kick conversion rates that they mentioned remain consistent at the pro level

 

[MrYeahBut]

I actually read an in-depth piece about Pulaski. It’s an interesting read. I find it interesting that at one point he states that teams with more 20 yard plays win more but he’s essentially willing to eschew field position admitting that he’s willing to turn the ball over on the 5 rather than punt to the 40 or give up the ball on a failed onside kick at the 47 rather than kick deep for a return to the 33. Aren’t each instance where they fail there the equivalent of one or more 20 yard plays for the opposition?

I’d love to see a pro team actually attempt this for a season and see if it actually has legs. At the high school level I could see it working, but I truly wonder if it would translate. I wonder if the 4th down and/or onside kick conversion rates that they mentioned remain consistent at the pro level

Seems like you'd have to have a really good defense and be able to trust it. Limit opposition to field goals. Your offense would at least have to be decent. I can't see it translating to the pros. Even bad teams can put up points with short fields.

 

[kerouac9]

I actually read an in-depth piece about Pulaski. It’s an interesting read. I find it interesting that at one point he states that teams with more 20 yard plays win more but he’s essentially willing to eschew field position admitting that he’s willing to turn the ball over on the 5 rather than punt to the 40 or give up the ball on a failed onside kick at the 47 rather than kick deep for a return to the 33. Aren’t each instance where they fail there the equivalent of one or more 20 yard plays for the opposition?

I’d love to see a pro team actually attempt this for a season and see if it actually has legs. At the high school level I could see it working, but I truly wonder if it would translate. I wonder if the 4th down and/or onside kick conversion rates that they mentioned remain consistent at the pro level

Another way to think about the psychology of this is Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin (I think) started going for it on fourth more aggressively when he realized that was the thing that was most demoralizing for opposing defenses.

 

[Cardsfaninlouky]

Pick your poison. If we could pressure the opposing QB with 4 guys it would help our secondary tremendously.

When we have to blitz with 5 or 6 guys it opens up zones and it damn near makes it impossible to prevent a completion if the rush doesn’t get to the QB.
It also opens gaps against the run.
We NEVER pressure the Qb with just a 4 man rush.

The 49ers do it continuously with a 4 man rush. But you're right, blitzing leaves the middle wide open (zones) & sets us up to get burned by the screen pass. But on the flip side if blitzing is the only way to get pressure we have to do it. Our secondary can't hold up long enough if the QB has all day to throw.

 

[MrYeahBut]

@daves

Being the numbers nerd you are, I say that with admiration...

Is it possible to isolate the stats for quarterbacks listed by height? Lets say a 5'-10 Kyler vs 6'-2 Prescott or Rodgers.

As I recall there were maybe 4 passes batted down by the Cards in the recent cowboy game. Is there a real difference in passes batted down that directly correlates with a players height? I suppose interceptions thrown factors in since that occurance likely carries a larger degree of negative. consequences.

 

[BritCard]

Great draft for CBs, best in years. That said Hamilton & Wilson look promising. They will need to draft at least 1, but the roster has potential but needs experience.

I don't see anything but round 1 CB in the draft. There are other major needs such as Edge but there is going to be some good CB's available where we are picking. Not so much Edge.

 

[slanidrac16]

The 49ers do it continuously with a 4 man rush. But you're right, blitzing leaves the middle wide open (zones) & sets us up to get burned by the screen pass. But on the flip side if blitzing is the only way to get pressure we have to do it. Our secondary can't hold up long enough if the QB has all day to throw.

Absolutely correct.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Another way to think about the psychology of this is Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin (I think) started going for it on fourth more aggressively when he realized that was the thing that was most demoralizing for opposing defenses.

True, but the corollary is that it’s also extremely demoralizing for the failing offense and their defense who is now defending a short field.

 

[daves]

@daves

Being the numbers nerd you are, I say that with admiration...

Is it possible to isolate the stats for quarterbacks listed by height? Lets say a 5'-10 Kyler vs 6'-2 Prescott or Rodgers.

As I recall there were maybe 4 passes batted down by the Cards in the recent cowboy game. Is there a real difference in passes batted down that directly correlates with a players height? I suppose interceptions thrown factors in since that occurance likely carries a larger degree of negative. consequences.

Haha, thanks - if i can find a source of the data for QB heights and passes batted in a reasonably clean tabular form, i'll try to put that together!

...dave

 

[Harry]

@daves

Being the numbers nerd you are, I say that with admiration...

Is it possible to isolate the stats for quarterbacks listed by height? Lets say a 5'-10 Kyler vs 6'-2 Prescott or Rodgers.

As I recall there were maybe 4 passes batted down by the Cards in the recent cowboy game. Is there a real difference in passes batted down that directly correlates with a players height? I suppose interceptions thrown factors in since that occurance likely carries a larger degree of negative. consequences.

Certainly it‘s more challenging for shorter QBs, but it’s more complicated than that. For starters offensive linemen are taught to try to prevent defensive linemen from leaping up. It doesn’t take much contact. Some shorter QBs, like Brees, mastered shifting from side to side in the pocket to create throwing lanes. Mahomes likes to throw sidearm at times to foil leapers. Finally of course if you roll out QBs, it’s easier for them to avoid leaping rushers.

 

[Harry]

I don't see anything but round 1 CB in the draft. There are other major needs such as Edge but there is going to be some good CB's available where we are picking. Not so much Edge.

I’ve got your Edge Rusher but I’ll wait and see how the Cards do in the playoffs.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Agree 100%. I cannot believe anyone thinks its smart to go for a first down on their own 20 side of the field at the beginning of the game.

In a vacuum sure, but all other aspects have to be considered. That's kind of the point of analytics.

What is the score?
What time is it in the game?
Is has the defense been poor in past games in short yardage, or in the same game?
Do you have a good play call?
How successful are you on 4th down etc.
Dozens more.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

The 49ers do it continuously with a 4 man rush. But you're right, blitzing leaves the middle wide open (zones) & sets us up to get burned by the screen pass. But on the flip side if blitzing is the only way to get pressure we have to do it. Our secondary can't hold up long enough if the QB has all day to throw.

49ers have invested multiple 1st round picks on their line either by drafting or trading for them. We don't have that luxury or talent.

 

[Cardsfaninlouky]

49ers have invested multiple 1st round picks on their line either by drafting or trading for them. We don't have that luxury or talent.

You're exactly right, we've spent our last 2 first round picks on the 2nd level & even those picks have been questioned on this board whether it be from an intellectual, coaching or ability standpoint. Other than the QB position both OL & DL is where a GM should build first. The 49ers built that DL over several drafts just like Jerry Jones built the Dallas OL. Keim thought he had steals on Fotu & Lawrence & maybe he did but they weren't 1st rounders like many on the 49ers DL. DT, OL & CB should be Keim's next main building blocks other than the roster being a total mess next season lol.

 

[juza76]

I’ve got your Edge Rusher but I’ll wait and see how the Cards do in the playoffs.

The guy from Michigan?

 

[Harry]

No

The guy from Michigan?

No, long gone

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

No

No, long gone

Both of them? Hutchinson obviously gone.

 

[Harry]

Both of them? Hutchinson obviously gone.

I don’t think David Ojabo (I presume is your thought) is a first round pick. He’s weak against the run and may end up only playing on obvious passing downs, especially early in his career. He also needs to add technique, as he gets by now more on athleticism. Still I think he’s a talent and may be worth a day 2 pick.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I don’t think David Ojabo (I presume is your thought) is a first round pick. He’s weak against the run and may end up only playing on obvious passing downs, especially early in his career. He also needs to add technique, as he gets by now more on athleticism. Still I think he’s a talent and may be worth a day 2 pick.

Yup that’s who I was referencing. Lots of pure athleticism though.

 

[cardjunkie]

In a vacuum sure, but all other aspects have to be considered. That's kind of the point of analytics.

What is the score?
What time is it in the game?
Is has the defense been poor in past games in short yardage, or in the same game?
Do you have a good play call?
How successful are you on 4th down etc.
Dozens more.

Opponent up 7 to 0
Q1
Ball on your own 20.
4th and 1
You do not have a successful QB sneak.

 

[Arz101]

Lack of depth.
Poor coaching.