Pre-Draft Cardinal Thoughts

[Mitch]

1. What the Cardinals have essentially done by publicly announcing they will "listen" to offers for Q is establish his current market value. If no team makes an offer similar to the Roy Williams deal, then the Cardinals have improved their position with Q in the sense that they have honored his request to be traded to a team that would pay him close to Fitz money. Q can't complain about that, nor should he complain that the Cardinals didn't trade him for less than what Roy Williams got...if he truly beieves he's worth close to $10M a year. He can't have it both ways.

Interesting that the Ravens brought in WR Hakeem Nicks for a workout this week...some pundits feel that his game resembles Q's.

The problem with putting players on the block right before the draft is that teams have already become enamored with their draft boards and their targetings of the players they want...plus, cap space is a huge issue for most of the top teams, and taking on another large contract while having to sacrifice draft picks is a dubious scenario.

You might ask, well what about yesterday's Peters' deal? The Eagles were desperate to acquire a starting left tackle (their most glaring need), AND, they had the luxury of having TWO first round picks to work with, AND they were right to figure that ANY tackle they selected at #21 or #28 would have a tough time stepping into the starting LT role, especially in a division that boasts the likes of DeMarcus Ware, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora...and a LT who might have Albert Haynesworth on his inside shoulder from time to time.

Notice too that the Eagles did not have to give up a 3rd in addition to the #28 pick. They gave up a 4th, which is fine seeing as they have 4 5th round picks.

Some pundits are saying that the Bills would have gotten a lot more had they waited until draft day and the Eagles were sitting there at #28 mulling over whether to take Eben Britton or William Beatty.

This is probably true.

The year to maximize Q's trade value in terms of first rounders would have been last year, as NO WRs were taken in the first round. That's right: ZERO.

Guess who the first WR taken was? By whom and with what # pick?

I am pretty sure it was Donnie Avery @ #33 (STL) followed by Devin Thomas @ #34 (WASH).

In this year's draft there are 6 WRs considered by many as 1st rounders:

Michael Crabtree; Jeremy Macklin; Percy Harvin; Hakeem Nicks; Darrius Heywood-Bey; and Kenny Britt. And had Brandon Tate not suffered a knee injury, he would make the 7th. And when you look at this list almost all of these WRs are good RAC WRs.

The point is: the odds of the Cardinals getting a 1st and a 3rd for Q in this draft are not very good.

2. If the Cardinals are desperate to trade Q...it may have to be for established players and lower round picks. Ron Wolfley contends that the Q situation could escalate this year and get even uglier than it has been already. If the Cardinals sense the same thing, then there may be added urgency to get a deal done...but, it may be a deal that will at first glance will disappoint many of you, especially in light of the 1st and 3rd round pick speculation.

3. If there were a way to keep Q happy or at least hungry to excel, it sure would make a lot of sense to keep the current offense intact. That might incude keeping Edgerrin James. But, in order to keep James an his $5M on the cap, it would seem, especially in light of Dansby's reluctance to sign a new deal that would give the Cardinals the much needed cap space it needs, that a handful of veterans such as Chike Okeafor, Bryan Robinson, Matt Ware, Victor Hobson, and even Sean Morey might have to be released or asked to take a pay cut (Okeafor), which the Cardinals have been loathe to do thus far, but that was before learning that Dansby fired his agent and wants to make a splash in the 2010 free agency.

If you are of the camp that says don't keep the players who don't want to be here, both Q and Edge could be gone, and their cap space used to sign the draft picks and put the finishing touches on the roster.

4. Interesting that the Bills just signed UFA RB Dominic Rhodes to a 2 year deal and have been low balling the incumbent #2 RB Fred Jackson to the point where Jackson is extremely miffed and disgruntled. The question is: should the Cardinals make a play for Jackson? Say for the 4th round pick? Jackson is heading into just his third year and had a 4 game stretch as a rookie where he averaged 97 yards, and this past season rushed for 122 yards in his last game versus New England.

5. Would it make sense for the Cardinals to try to sign OLB34 Roosevelt Colvin? Colvin is a proven pass rusher who has had some time to get 100% healthy again after some injury-plagued seasons. The Patriots signed him for the last few games last year and he stepped in, started, and played fairly well all in good wins.

The reason is: can the Cardinals expect a rookie or two to help the team improve its pass rush?

Certainly the Cardinals have to draft a pass rusher or two in this draft. But, having Colvin on board as the rookies get acclimated might be very smart.

What's tantalizing about this draft is that the Cardinals have a legitmate chance to contend for the Lombardi Trophy again...and...the Cardinals need an improved pass rush to do it and need a nickel and dime package FS...and perhaps another RB.

The question for the first four ot five picks thereby would have to be are these players ready to contribute right away?

This is why players like OLB34 Michael Johnson, RB Shonn Green and FSs Louis Delmas, Sherrod Martin and Rashad Johnson look more attractive.

6. Some Thoughts on Players in This Draft:

QB: Pat White (WVU). Whiz loves versatile players who can perform a role, and I would be he would love to have a Wildcat QB extraordinaire like While.

RB: Shonn Greene (Iowa). While Whiz loves burners, he also loves a smashmout RB who lowers his pads and fights for every tough inch. Greene is just that. Yet, the RB that may be the most overlooked in this class is Cedric Peerman (Virginia) who is a tough runner inside the tackles, yet has elusive speed (just ran a 4.37 at Virginia's Pro Day). The situational RB Whiz may like is Kory Sheets (Purdue), who runs hard and fast and doesn't blink. In many ways he's be the perfect replacement for J.J. Arrington. Although, the Cardinals may have already tipped their hand by bringing in LaRod Stephens-Howling (Pittsburgh) the diminutive scat back who plays with a burst and a flair.

FB: Will Ta'ufo'ou (California). Low center of gravity hard hitting smashmouth who has already been brought in for a visit.

OL: G Kraig Urbik (Wisconsin) has the size, technique and mean streak that might remind Whiz of Alan Faneca. C Antoine Caldwell (Alabama) seems like the total package: smart, athletic, strong, can power or finesse. T T.J. Lang (Eastern Michigan): versatile, smart, well-sized and super aggressive.

WR: Kenny Britt (Rutgers) has such an impressive skill set and was coached by new WR coach Mike McNulty. Set the All-Time Big East receiving records in 3 years and has a real nose for the end zone. WR Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy (Florida)...Harvin can be shifted around an be dynamic wherever he lines up, thanks to his superior speed, sure hands and elusiveness...and Murphy is a burner who can stretch the field and make the big play over the top of the coverage.

TE: Brandon Pettigrew (Oklahoma St.)...the total package as blocker and receiver. James Casey (Rice)...great hands and concentration. Anthony Hill (NC St.) has outstanding ability as a blocker and receiver, but needs coaching.

DE34: Tyson Jackson (LSU)...don't be entirely shocked if the Cardinals take him at #31. His motor as a run stuffer and pass rusher is impressive. If Antonio Smith thrived in this defense, Jackson likely would and then some.

OLB34: Connor Barwin (Cincinnati)...superior athlete. Whiz would love his versatility as a pass rusher, string out and open field tackler, pass catching tight end and STs ace.

Michael Johnson (Georgia Tech). You can be sure Whiz has the inside scoop on Johnson as a GT alum. Johnson is a freakish athlete, and if the GT coaches give Whiz the nod, he will be one of the Cardinals top answers to improving the pass rush this season.

Larry English (NIU)...his fire and passion for the game are unmistakable...a leverege player who gives all out on every play.

ILB34: Paul Kruger (Utah)...the Mike Vrabel of this draft...can play inside or out in the 34...he's tough and surprisingly strong...has good feet and takes textbook angles in pursuit or in rushing the edge.

Scott McKillop (Pittsburgh)...the name of the game is tackling and this kid is a sure tackler. Needs to add some bulk, but JL would take care of that.

Jonathan Casillas (Wisconsin)...might be a better fit at WILB34 with added bulk...very good tackler, high pursuit player and is fast, fast, fast.

CB: Alphonso Smith (Wake Forest)...always around the ball. Reads well and closes on the ball or on the WR as fast as anyone anywhere.

FS: Sherrod Martin (Troy)...nice size to go with great hands, speed and range. Can play centerfield or cover CB. STs standout.

Rashad Johnson (Alabama)...about as fundamental and smart as they come.

7. Today's Mock: (No Q Trade)

#31. Michael Johnson, OLB34, Georgia Tech.

#63. Kraig Urbik, G, Wisconsin.

#95. Scott McKillop, ILB34, Pittsburgh.

#131. Traded to Buffalo for RB Fred Jackson.

#167. Phillip Hunt, OLB34, Houston.

#204. Jonathan Casillas, LB, Wisconsin.

#240. Will Ta'ouf'ou, FB, Caifornia.

#254. Brandon Hughes, CB/FS, Oregon St.

 

[uofi1998]

Really interesting post... nice work.

I'm intrigued by your Fred Jackson idea. There were many times last year when he looked like the better of the 2 Bills RBs, and I felt like they were playing Lynch because he was the money-laden 1st round pick instead of doing what was right to win ballgames.

While, yes, you're right that 5-7 WRs could go in the 1st round, the sale is that Q is a 3-time Pro Bowler who doesn't have to learn the NFL game. You're selling those teams that trading that #1 pick for Q vs. taking their own WR with that #1 pick puts them in a better spot immediately. In other words, with so many teams targeting WRs in Rd. 1, I think it works in the Cards favor, not to its detriment, as it appears you opine. We all know that it almost always takes a couple of years for a new WR to become accustomed to the NFL game. Trading for Boldin takes out 1) that developmental period and 2) the uncertainty that comes with the draft.

Again, if you're Rod Graves, that's what you're selling, and a smart GM who wants to win now should be buying.

It could even cause a very talented WR or 2 to slide if the Cards decide they want to pick one to develop behind Fitz, Breaston, and Doucet (Urban too, but I think he'll stick at the 4, and will be passed by Doucet).

 

[lauraw]

Heard some things on this post that give me pause bout Johnson, esp. at 31; want a rb on the first day...

 

[Russ Smith]

I actually think the Bills would probably prefer to trade Lynch instead of Jackson but his value is really down right now because of the off field incidents the last 2 years. Jackson was very good as a part time player, Lynch is more the workhorse(still think he should drop 5-10 pounds).

Both guys would fit our offense because they can catch the ball, I think Jackson is a bit better at that. Jackson would fit us better because Lynch and Hightower are somewhat similar, Jackson is a different kind of back.

I don't have a clue what his value is and I doubt any move would be made before the draft.

 

[Buckybird]

good read Mitch, but the RB I would go after is Tashard Choice and I would give up a 3rd if thats what it would take.

 

[joeshmo]

1. Interesting look at it.

2. I don't think they will trade him for anything but a 1st and 3rd, so its a mott point IMO. If they don't get it they will just keep, distractions be damned. Coaches and Management think the team is stronger then that, and Boldin will only cause problems for management he wont cause problems for his teammates.

3. I think you need to replace Morey's name with Fransisco's name. Not a chance they cut a pro bowler and a coaches favorite. Fransisco makes a lot more money, we may have already signed his equal in Keith Lewis, and the last drive in the super bowl may have left a bad taste in their mouths.

4. I would love to do it, maybe even for a 3rd. But Jackson is staying because Lynch is such a question mark plus he is suspended the first 3 games of the year. A Jackson trade would leave them paper thin at RB the first 3 games of the year.

5. Dont think it would make much sense to go after Colvin anymore. He doesn't have anything in the tank anymore at the age of 32, injury prone, and he hasn't been a pass rush threat for two years running now. At this stage of his career he is a redundant piece to the already mediocre, Okeafer, Berry, and Haggans.

 

[CardinalChris]

How can you say he isn't worth a first and third when that offer is already on the table from the Ravens? If he isn't worth it, why is a team offering it? My guess is AZ values Q as worth more than a low first and a third.

Q is worth a first and a third, just based off of market value. That doesn't mean a deal will be done for that, just that it is the going rate for a WR of his ability. My guess is AZ wants a first and second or a first, third, and additional pick. In both scenarios I could see AZ willing to take a conditional second or additional pick in 2010 to make the deal work.

 

[joeshmo]

How can you say he isn't worth a first and third when that offer is already on the table from the Ravens?

When did they ever offer that? Haven't read a single thing or heard a single report that an actual offer is on the table, we only know that they have called us, nothing more nothing less. Do you have a link saying they have an offer on the table?

All reports about the ravens don't say what they have offered or if they have even offered anything at all. The 1st and 3rd thing is only the rumor of what we are asking for, it is not what a team has offered that we know of yet.

 

[Skkorpion]

Mitch, I was busy writing my own opinions and then saw yours. Seems we agree on Dansby, Edge and Boldin right now.

As far as names of players to draft, that's beyond me. Takes too much research.

 

[82CardsGrad]

good read Mitch, but the RB I would go after is Tashard Choice and I would give up a 3rd if thats what it would take.

I really like this idea!!

 

[lobo]

1. What the Cardinals have essentially done by publicly announcing they will "listen" to offers for Q is establish his current market value.

You did your homework (duh)!! I say this because you identified some of the same under the radar value picks as I have...does it make us right?? Not necessarily but from my point of view it validates some of my thinking. I disagree on a few issues, but that is what this forum is all about!! I week from now we will have AT LEAST two draft choices made.

 

[lauraw]

Mitch, I was drinking Kool Aide as I read this post from you! Many thanks!! will edit as i digest...

 

[perivolaki]

Yet, the RB that may be the most overlooked in this class is Cedric Peerman (Virginia) who is a tough runner inside the tackles, yet has elusive speed (just ran a 4.37 at Virginia's Pro Day).

I love Peerman. Not only is he a good running back but he was an excellent returner before he became Virginia's #1 back. He has small hands though and has had a little bit of a fumbling problem.

I like both Greene and Peerman and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Cards double down on running backs in this draft just like they did with defensive ends in last years draft.

You draft Greene as your short yardage possible #1 back, and Peerman as your #1 returner and backup 3rd down back understudy to Wright.

This gives us more protection when we release Edge. With two drafted running backs we stand a much better chance of at least one of them being a productive NFL back and if both turn out to be good we just made running back a strength instead of a weakness..

 

[Totally_Red]

Nice and well-thought post Mitch. Thanks for doing that.

On Kory Sheets I will be very surprised if the Cardinals touch him with a ten foot pole. He was very vocal about his unhappiness with various things at Purdue and could be a disruptive influence on the Cardinals, especially with the emphasis on the passing game that this offense will have for the foreseeable future. I doubt if Joe Tiller would give Sheets much of a recommendation. The talent is there, but the risk of disrupting team chemistry ('We do this together') is simply too high for the Cardinals IMO.

Once again, thanks for taking the time to post that information.

 

[Duckjake]

I've changed my position on trading Q. As long as the Cards pick up Cosby from Texas. Then we'd still have the Quan and the extra draft picks.

Mitch, Colvin signed a one year deal with the Pats in December. So I don't think he's a FA.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

You're right about Johnson. Alot of what's taken into account into where a player ends up getting drafted is what his coaches say about him to team personnel. I remember reading an article a few years back on how Jimmy Johnson put a ton of stock into coaches/players comments on potential draftees. I also heard Mel Kiper recently saying what's keeping Andre Smith in the top 10 is that Saban has been touting him as a great kid and excellent worker in practice. Chan Gailey was Gtech's coach and he should have pretty good insight as to how Johnson will transition to the NFL.

 

[WildBB]

Chan Gailey was Gtech's coach and he should have pretty good insight as to how Johnson will transition to the NFL.

How do you take into account his getting overmatched or non-productive at vast stretches over his last two years? Especially with his measurables and speed! He can be a non-factor.

All that said, some team will get a situational phenom at some point if the light clicks on, and if he's utilized to his best advantage. Barwin is in the same category. You'r going to need to be patient with both for at least a year. Which we could be right now.


Here's an article int AZ Republic discussing the Cardinals' draft. Needs that line up with talent in the draft are -
RB, OLB, C/G and possibly TE according to the article. Nothing we didn't really already know.

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/cardinals/articles/2009/04/18/20090418spt-cards.html