Predict the top 5 NBA Draft Order

[PDXChris]

This is how see if playing out. The 76ers get another 1st pick and Dallas gets screwed because they hate Cuban.

1 Philadelphia From LA (Top 2-5 protected)

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2 Phoenix

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3 Atlanta

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4 Memphis

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5 Dallas

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[Ronin]

Yeah like the Sixers need more help.
1. Atlanta
2. Dallas
3. Memphis
4. Phoenix
5. Chicago

 

[PDXChris]

Yeah like the Sixers need more help.
1. Atlanta
2. Dallas
3. Memphis
4. Phoenix
5. Chicago

But what a FU to LA!!

 

[Ronin]

But what a FU to LA!!

Forgive my short sightedness, master.

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[CardsSunsDbacks]

1. Memphis
2. Phoenix
3. Atlanta
4. Dallas
5. Orlando

Worst team seems to end up with the 2nd pick quite often and thus I think it is a safe bet it happens again.

 

[BillsCarnage]

Atlanta
LA Lakers
Boston
San Antonio
Cleveland - what the hell
Suns
Who cares about the rest.

 

[Covert Rain]

The Suns are going to get screwed like always. I simply refuse to believe otherwise until I see it play out as it should.

 

[devilalum]

I predict that the Suns will draft no lower than #4.


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[Covert Rain]

I predict that the Suns will draft no lower than #4.

That's a fair prediction but odds wise the Suns should be drafting #1. Unfortunately, something tells me despite the lottery changes there will be mass cries that the lottery is fixed after the order is announced.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Phoenix
Phoenix
Phoenix
Phoenix
Suns
Who cares about the rest.

FTFY

 

[AzStevenCal]

That's a fair prediction but odds wise the Suns should be drafting #1. Unfortunately, something tells me despite the lottery changes there will be mass cries that the lottery is fixed after the order is announced.

I'm not following you? I thought, odds wise, 4th was the single most likely position for us to draft in. We have a better chance to draft first than any other team but the field has us beat by quite a bit.

 

[BC867]

I'm not following you? I thought, odds wise, 4th was the single most likely position for us to draft in. We have a better chance to draft first than any other team but the field has us beat by quite a bit.

I agree with you about us having a better chance to draft first. We don't have a majority of the odds, but neither do picks 2, 3 or 4.

What we have is better odds than any of those three other teams which, theoretically, give us a better one-time chance for #1.

'Sort of like Sarver not having the majority rule on the Board, but his 30% ownership is greater than any of the other owners. Of course in that case, all the other owners have to do is collude their 70% and strip Sarver of his title and burn his foam finger.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Message from Ivan Drago to all us Suns fans:

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[Hoop Head]

#1 - Orlando (Ayton)
#2 - Laker Pick - Conveys to the Celtics (Bagley)
#3 - Phoenix (Doncic)
#4 - Memphis (Porter)
#5 - Atlanta/Dallas - Depends on who wins the coin flip since they had the same record.

I also put who i think would be selected by the teams at those spots.

Suns won't get totally screwed by falling to #4 but they'll end up behind Boston, again, with the pick that originally belonged to the Lakers. This will be the 4th year in a row where the Lakers landed at #2 although they don't own their own pick this year. Boston will be listening to offers for that pick which means the Suns won't be able to explore many trade options with their own top pick. I don't think the Suns should trade their top pick but since their odds of being able to select Ayton at #3 are really slim, I wouldn't mind if they played the market some to see what's out there. If the Suns landed #1 or #2, I'd hope they didn't shop the pick at all but at #3 or #4, it's worth seeing how teams value it. If Boston is willing to trade their pick, and it is ahead of the Suns, that will hurt the value of the Suns own pick. For maximum value only 1 team in the top 3 would be listening to offers, if 2 teams are doing that then I see less being offered because they'd be competing with the other team some.

I wonder if Boston would trade with Phoenix to drop 1 spot and take either the 2021 Miami or Milwaukee pick off our hands to do so. Chances are Ainge would be able to find out who McD would select and if they don't want the same player they could drop a spot and get their guy while adding yet another future pick in the process. I don't see the Celtics having interest in adding another pick this year so it'd probably be better if the Milwaukee pick didn't convey because it'd be more valuable to them down the road. Boston might trade out of the top of the draft also and should be able to get good return even if they fell 1 more spot. They could turn that 1 pick into 2 or 3 pretty easily if they wanted to trade out. I hate how stocked their cupboards are, especially considering how they were able to fill them. They won a title and then failed winning another while their players were still productive. Rather than paying them huge money to stick around and fall short they sold them off for future picks to reload before anyone else realized just how over the hill those players were.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I'm not following you? I thought, odds wise, 4th was the single most likely position for us to draft in. We have a better chance to draft first than any other team but the field has us beat by quite a bit.

Something that gets overlooked is the real time odds for picks 2 and 3. If we don't get the #1 pick, but Memphis does than our odds for the #2 would become 32%. If we then didn't get the #2 pick and Atlanta gets it then our odds for #3 is at around 39% in real time during the drawing process. So as long as no teams jump from a really low position to get the #1 pick our odds for #2 or #3 would be significantly better.

 

[GatorAZ]

#1 - Orlando (Ayton)
#2 - Laker Pick - Conveys to the Celtics (Bagley)
#3 - Phoenix (Doncic)
#4 - Memphis (Porter)
#5 - Atlanta/Dallas - Depends on who wins the coin flip since they had the same record.

I also put who i think would be selected by the teams at those spots.

Suns won't get totally screwed by falling to #4 but they'll end up behind Boston, again, with the pick that originally belonged to the Lakers. This will be the 4th year in a row where the Lakers landed at #2 although they don't own their own pick this year. Boston will be listening to offers for that pick which means the Suns won't be able to explore many trade options with their own top pick. I don't think the Suns should trade their top pick but since their odds of being able to select Ayton at #3 are really slim, I wouldn't mind if they played the market some to see what's out there. If the Suns landed #1 or #2, I'd hope they didn't shop the pick at all but at #3 or #4, it's worth seeing how teams value it. If Boston is willing to trade their pick, and it is ahead of the Suns, that will hurt the value of the Suns own pick. For maximum value only 1 team in the top 3 would be listening to offers, if 2 teams are doing that then I see less being offered because they'd be competing with the other team some.

I wonder if Boston would trade with Phoenix to drop 1 spot and take either the 2021 Miami or Milwaukee pick off our hands to do so. Chances are Ainge would be able to find out who McD would select and if they don't want the same player they could drop a spot and get their guy while adding yet another future pick in the process. I don't see the Celtics having interest in adding another pick this year so it'd probably be better if the Milwaukee pick didn't convey because it'd be more valuable to them down the road. Boston might trade out of the top of the draft also and should be able to get good return even if they fell 1 more spot. They could turn that 1 pick into 2 or 3 pretty easily if they wanted to trade out. I hate how stocked their cupboards are, especially considering how they were able to fill them. They won a title and then failed winning another while their players were still productive. Rather than paying them huge money to stick around and fall short they sold them off for future picks to reload before anyone else realized just how over the hill those players were.

Then Ayton will leave them for the Lakers in 2025.

 

[Chaplin]

#1 - Orlando (Ayton)
#2 - Laker Pick - Conveys to the Celtics (Bagley)
#3 - Phoenix (Doncic)
#4 - Memphis (Porter)
#5 - Atlanta/Dallas - Depends on who wins the coin flip since they had the same record.

I also put who i think would be selected by the teams at those spots.

Suns won't get totally screwed by falling to #4 but they'll end up behind Boston, again, with the pick that originally belonged to the Lakers. This will be the 4th year in a row where the Lakers landed at #2 although they don't own their own pick this year. Boston will be listening to offers for that pick which means the Suns won't be able to explore many trade options with their own top pick. I don't think the Suns should trade their top pick but since their odds of being able to select Ayton at #3 are really slim, I wouldn't mind if they played the market some to see what's out there. If the Suns landed #1 or #2, I'd hope they didn't shop the pick at all but at #3 or #4, it's worth seeing how teams value it. If Boston is willing to trade their pick, and it is ahead of the Suns, that will hurt the value of the Suns own pick. For maximum value only 1 team in the top 3 would be listening to offers, if 2 teams are doing that then I see less being offered because they'd be competing with the other team some.

I wonder if Boston would trade with Phoenix to drop 1 spot and take either the 2021 Miami or Milwaukee pick off our hands to do so. Chances are Ainge would be able to find out who McD would select and if they don't want the same player they could drop a spot and get their guy while adding yet another future pick in the process. I don't see the Celtics having interest in adding another pick this year so it'd probably be better if the Milwaukee pick didn't convey because it'd be more valuable to them down the road. Boston might trade out of the top of the draft also and should be able to get good return even if they fell 1 more spot. They could turn that 1 pick into 2 or 3 pretty easily if they wanted to trade out. I hate how stocked their cupboards are, especially considering how they were able to fill them. They won a title and then failed winning another while their players were still productive. Rather than paying them huge money to stick around and fall short they sold them off for future picks to reload before anyone else realized just how over the hill those players were.

Orlando is more likely to go Doncic than Ayton, even at #1.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Orlando is more likely to go Doncic than Ayton, even at #1.

Why?

 

[Covert Rain]

I'm not following you? I thought, odds wise, 4th was the single most likely position for us to draft in. We have a better chance to draft first than any other team but the field has us beat by quite a bit.

There is 64.2% chance the Suns get one of the first 3 picks. There is a 35.8% the Suns get the 4th. So there is a higher chance they get one of the first three verses the 4th overall. They are guaranteed the 4th if they don’t get one of the first 3.

The Suns, although by a small margin, still have the best odds for the number one pick (25% vs Memphis at 19.9%). If we get leaped frogged then for the next two picks are odds increase giving us even a better chance at one of those.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the Suns get screwed out of this last opportunity for the worst team to have the best chance at the number one pick. Just our kind of luck.

 

[Hoop Head]

I don't think Orlando would go with Doncic over Ayton, and if they did I don't think it's a sure thing at this point. The only team that I think would take Doncic ahead of Ayton are the Grizzlies. Doncic would play the Tyreke Evans point forward role for them with Gasol and Conley returning next year while they'd struggle to fit Ayton into a lineup with Gasol. Of course they could trade him but that's unlikely. They didn't fire Fizdale for Gasol only to trade him a year later. Doncic would be an upgrade to Evans but the role would be close enough that there shouldn't be much adjustment for them. Time will tell, but I'd be surprised if Doncic goes #1.

 

[Bookie Loc]

Why?

because they need a fresh start, Doncic is the right man!

 

[JCSunsfan]

Something that gets overlooked is the real time odds for picks 2 and 3. If we don't get the #1 pick, but Memphis does than our odds for the #2 would become 32%. If we then didn't get the #2 pick and Atlanta gets it then our odds for #3 is at around 39% in real time during the drawing process. So as long as no teams jump from a really low position to get the #1 pick our odds for #2 or #3 would be significantly better.

I was thinking about this the other day. I am glad someone did the math. The odds are not the same as published because some teams one team at a time is eliminated in process.

 

[elindholm]

I was thinking about this the other day. I am glad someone did the math. The odds are not the same as published because some teams one team at a time is eliminated in process.

They are exactly the same as published. I don't understand why people keep saying this.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

They are exactly the same as published. I don't understand why people keep saying this.

They are what is published before the process starts, but the odds change in real time after each pick is determined. The reason is because the combinations for the team that gets the #1 pick are no longer included for the drawing of the #2 pick and the same goes for the #3 pick.

For instance the Suns will have 250 of 1000 combinations and thus will never have less than a 25% chance at any individual pick in real time. If the Suns don’t get the #1 pick than the the combinations for the team that got it are then removed from the equation and the Suns would still have 250 combinations in play for pick #2. If the team that gets #1 is Memphis than that removes 199 combinations for the 2nd pick. The Suns would then have a 32% chance in real time to get the #2 pick. The same process would happen for the #3 pick.

 

[elindholm]

They are what is published before the process starts, but the odds change in real time after each pick is determined. The reason is because the combinations for the team that gets the #1 pick are no longer included for the drawing of the #2 pick and the same goes for the #3 pick.

For instance the Suns will have 250 of 1000 combinations and thus will never have less than a 25% chance at any individual pick in real time. If the Suns don’t get the #1 pick than the the combinations for the team that got it are then removed from the equation and the Suns would still have 250 combinations in play for pick #2. If the team that gets #1 is Memphis than that removes 199 combinations for the 2nd pick. The Suns would then have a 32% chance in real time to get the #2 pick. The same process would happen for the #3 pick.

That's all correct, but the published odds are also correct, because they take all possible sub-scenarios into account.