Prediction game--which player will the Suns draft?

[F-Dog]

Since it probably won't take a ton of foresight to predict whom the Suns are going to draft right before the fact, I figure we might as well get our predictions in now--this way, somebody is going to be able to say they called it well in advance, and have something to hold over the rest of us.


I figure that conditional predictions are most appropriate--one pick for if the Suns win the draft lottery, another pick for if they wind up between #3 and #8 (with optional backup pick), and a super sleeper pick if the Suns trade down. With four choices apiece, one of us will wind up hitting the jackpot...


My picks:

#1--Emeka Okafor
#3-8--Kosta Perovic (Tiago Splitter)
Sleeper pick--Al Jefferson

 

[slinslin]

None

 

[George O'Brien]

I'm repeating form another thread:

The Boston Celtics have three first round picks: their own, the Pistons pick, and the Dallas pick. The Boston pick is roughly #15, the Piston pick is #23, and the Dallas pick is #26.

If the Suns traded their lottery pick (after the ping pong balls have fallen) for the three Celtics picks, they could use the Dallas pick to pay off Utah and and Pistons pick to pay off the Spurs. They would have a picks to use to clear cap space and still be able to use the better of either the Knicks or Celtics pick in the draft.

It is not out the question that the Suns could get as useful a player at the #15 slot as at #6, but for about $1 million less. On the other hand, the Celtics need everything so a high pick might be a real plus for them.

I might do the deal if only screw over Utah.

 

[sunsfn]

This is really a guessing game at this point but what the heck.

#1, Dwight Howard

#3-8 Josh Smith, Andris Biedrins, trade down

late pick, Rafael Araujo

Tiago Splitter is not on the NBA draft anymore. This may be an indication he has decided to wait a year before declaring.?


If the suns get number 1 or 2, I do not think they will trade it.
These players should absoutely help a team in the near future and trading away a 1st or 2nd pick can really come back to haunt you. The only way this is usually done is in the case where the team is close and a trade will give them the player they want to take them deep in the playoffs.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by sunsfn
Tiago Splitter is not on the NBA draft anymore. This may be an indication he has decided to wait a year before declaring.?

He's not on Draft City either. I saw a couple of articles critical of him about a month ago and so I would not be terribly surprised if he is waiting.

 

[scotsman13]

personally i think they are going to end up with dwight howard. right now he has a body close to jakes and has been told that he will grow another couple inches. in time he will fill out and become the best center the suns have ever had.

if not him then i would say we would take Kosta Perovic.

okafor is a 6'8" or 6'9" power forward almost everyone says that he cant play center at the next level and he doesnt have range to get out of the middle where amare is going to be playing. so as good as okafor is or maybe come. he wont fit any needed roll at this time now or into the future. power forward is amares spot.

 

[Joe Mama]

Originally posted by scotsman13
personally i think they are going to end up with dwight howard. right now he has a body close to jakes and has been told that he will grow another couple inches. in time he will fill out and become the best center the suns have ever had.

if not him then i would say we would take Kosta Perovic.

okafor is a 6'8" or 6'9" power forward almost everyone says that he cant play center at the next level and he doesnt have range to get out of the middle where amare is going to be playing. so as good as okafor is or maybe come. he wont fit any needed roll at this time now or into the future. power forward is amares spot.

I agree. In fact I am starting to think that if they feel they have a really good chance Kobe Bryant they will use that draft pick to try to move Howard Eiseley.

Joe Mama

 

[F-Dog]

Originally posted by George O'Brien
He's not on Draft City either. I saw a couple of articles critical of him about a month ago and so I would not be terribly surprised if he is waiting.

That is what I've heard too.

Of course, if the Suns promise they'll pick him at #6, there's a chance he'll change his mind...

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by F-Dog
That is what I've heard too.

Of course, if the Suns promise they'll pick him at #6, there's a chance he'll change his mind...

One article said that Spitter is a lot shorter than had previously been reported.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

#1 Dwight Howard

3-8 Pavel Podkolzine

 

[capologist]

Well, suppose the rumors are true and that Kobe Bryant is going to be wearing a Suns jersey (and not a Colorado State Penitentiary jumpsuit) next season. That means the 2-3-4 positions are pretty much locked up with Kobe, Shawn, and Amare. So we need to look at 1s and 5s.

Let’s look at the 5s first.

Emeka Okafur’s size might mean that PF is his ideal position. However, even playing a position above his size, he would probably be the best center in franchise history. Not that that’s saying much. If we have an opportunity to take him, we would probably be wise to do so.

Pavel Podkolzine is averaging 2.2 points and 1.8 rebounds in the Italian League. He’s a very long-term project. He’s currently ranked pretty high by most draft analysts, but I don’t think it makes sense to draft him as high as we’re going to be picking.

Andris Biedrins is averaging 3.3 points and .263 FT% in Latvia. No thanks.

Kosta Perovic: same story as Podkolzine and Biedrins.

So much for the 5s. Let’s look at the 1s.

Shaun Livingston is a very interesting prospect. He’s only 18 years old, so it will be a while before he really comes into his own, but he’s probably more prepared for the NBA than some of these euroteens who have been averaging two points a game overseas.

Ben Gordon, I think, would be a poor fit with Bryant. If there’s anything to the Gambo rumor of us also getting Tracy McGrady, then I think Gordon is out of the question.

Jameer Nelson is a nice player, a bit undersized, probably a reach where we’re going to be picking.

That’s it for the 5s and 1s. Anybody else presents awkward rotation issues. I really like Dwight Howard, but he would give us a seriously overloaded forward rotation with Amare, Shawn, Zarko, and JJ. We should sniff around before the draft and see what kind of trades might be available. Depending on what else we are able to do, it might make sense to draft Howard.

So, if Kobe is coming to Phoenix, I see Okafor and Livingston as being our best choices. We’ll need the ping pong balls to bounce the right way in order to get them, though.

If Kobe is not coming to Phoenix, then throw this whole analysis out the window.

 

[hcsilla]

Originally posted by capologist


Andris Biedrins is averaging 3.3 points and .263 FT% in Latvia. No thanks.

Last season.

This season he is averaging 18points/9rebounds/2 blocks which is impressive from a 19-year old guy even if the Latvian League is an average one in Europe.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by hcsilla
Last season.

This season he is averaging 18points/9rebounds/2 blocks which is impressive from a 19-year old guy even if the Latvian League is an average one in Europe.

Right now Biedrins looks like a lottery sleeper (a new concept I've developed ). He is not playing in a highly visible Euro league and he only generated good stats recently. Not every NBA team scouts Europe very well and some don't like drafting guys that don't speak English. I'm guessing he will slip to late lottery even if he tests out well.

The Suns might very well work a deal with Boston where the Suns take the guy that Boston wants with the #5 or #6 pick in exchange for the Boston pick and the Dallas pick that they own. They could then use the Dallas pick to pay off Utah.

None of this matters if Cleveland gets into the playoffs. At that point, the Suns could use the Knicks pick to take Biedrins and use their own lottery pick for something else.

 

[scotsman13]

Originally posted by capologist
Let’s look at the 5s first.

Emeka Okafur’s size might mean that PF is his ideal position. However, even playing a position above his size, he would probably be the best center in franchise history. Not that that’s saying much. If we have an opportunity to take him, we would probably be wise to do so.

cap here is where you and me see things differantly. the idea that you will put a player out there who is a little undersized for power forward and expect him to be center in the west is wrong. then when you top that off with what okafor's game is very close to the basket and no range. you do one of 2 things when you put him out there with amare, close down the middle more so that amare or okafor are getting double almost as soon as they touch the ball. or allowing everyone and their dog to double off from him because he is playing well out of his range at a high post.

now understand i am not blasting okafor at all, i think that he will be a very good player but the player that he is is still behind amare and they both play the same position. it goes back to that casey vs. boozer thing. boozer wouldnt have gotten any time with the suns because he would have been behind both googs and amare and outlaw. so the suns drafted a player that they believed that would help them, casey.

 

[Joe Mama]

Originally posted by scotsman13
cap here is where you and me see things differantly. the idea that you will put a player out there who is a little undersized for power forward and expect him to be center in the west is wrong. then when you top that off with what okafor's game is very close to the basket and no range. you do one of 2 things when you put him out there with amare, close down the middle more so that amare or okafor are getting double almost as soon as they touch the ball. or allowing everyone and their dog to double off from him because he is playing well out of his range at a high post.

now understand i am not blasting okafor at all, i think that he will be a very good player but the player that he is is still behind amare and they both play the same position. it goes back to that casey vs. boozer thing. boozer wouldnt have gotten any time with the suns because he would have been behind both googs and amare and outlaw. so the suns drafted a player that they believed that would help them, casey.

I feel the same way you do about Okafor. If he was expected to be a starting center or even play a lot of time at center he would be getting posted up and taken advantage of on a nightly basis by even average NBA centers. In fact I question whether he has the size to guard any of the big NBA forwards. I think Okafor will be a solid NBA player, but I don't see him ever being an all-star.

Carlos boozer would have been getting plenty of time with the Phoenix Suns. He could play in their small ball lineups, he could have backed up Amare Stoudemire last year at power forward, and he might have helped to keep the suns afloat this season when Amare and Zarko went down.

Joe Mama

 

[sunsfn]

Matthew Maurer

There is an interesting thread about the NBA draft at,
http://nbadraft.net/index.asp

click on this link that says NBA draft forum. (two lines above the team name orlando.
http://www.basketballboards.net/

Then click on top of the page on forums,
Scroll down to "The League" and then the NBA draft.

There is a thread (at the top) about "questions for the NBA draft.net"
The thread starter is Matthew Maurer, who is supposed to be very knowledgable about the draft and foriegn players.

This thread starts some time ago, but is also current in the questions.

There is a lot to read, but he talks about most of the centers in the draft and is high on Biedrins.

 

[sunsfn]

Here is one post he answered that you might like to read.
---------------------------------------
The question was White American Ballers vs. European Ballers

Matthew Maurer


I think I may be able to shed some light on this. Having spoke to Darko, Pavlovic, Omerhodzic and Lampe. The one thing they all have in common is that they were poor. They deal with conditions not even our worst Ghetto's put our young men through. For instance I remember Darko telling me that he had to watch were he walks becuase there are land mines around and that you need to watch where you step. Pavlovic told me that it wasn't uncommon when they praticed to hear gun shots and bombs going off. Lampe told me how his family had soup a lot becuase they weren't in a position where they could have really good meals. Those kids overseas referencing a Duran Duran song "Are hungry like the wolf" (Now I'm really showing my age) they for the most part have it bad compared to us. Not mention the fact they pracitce about 6-8 hours a day!

 

[PhxGametime]

#1 - 2 = Dwight Howard or Emeka Okafor

#5+ = Andre Iguodala, Luol Deng, Josh Smith, or Hakim Warrick

Kobe Bryant could change list obviously...