Predictions on the Googs trade

[JCSunsfan]

Googs will be traded in the next month or so. We know he will because the money dictates it.

Most estimates say that the Suns can save about $20 million in cash this spring by trading Googs. Its a no brainer, it has to happen.

We know that he will be traded to Utah.

The only real question is what will it take to get Utah to take Goog's contract for the final 3 months of the season?

My prediction:

Casey Jacobsen
Lottery pick (NY pick)
Enough cash to pay cover Goog's salary for the rest of the year.

I hate to see that pick go, but Utah's got us over a barrel. We've got no one else to negotiate with. It might even be more.

Your predictions?

On the bright side. If the Suns don't see any FA's that really interest them this summer, they can sit tight, and be in the same position that Utah is in by next year's trade deadline.

They can take on salary from some financially strapped team, and in the process rob them of picks or young--very good, players.

 

[fordronken]

Am I the only one who thinks Jacobsen could end up being a solid player for this team and shouldn't be traded?

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

The only way they trade Googs IMO is if they honestly think they have a great chance at landing Kobe. There is no real reason otherwise.

The suns can only give 3 mil cash.

If they dont think they will get Kobe, keep the picks. We would have like 5 and a half to 7 million in space. Either sign some one year deals, or just sit on it. We will be farther under the cap in 2005 when Whites 6 million will come off the books.

 

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by thegrahamcrackr
The only way they trade Googs IMO is if they honestly think they have a great chance at landing Kobe. There is no real reason otherwise.

The suns can only give 3 mil cash.

If they dont think they will get Kobe, keep the picks. We would have like 5 and a half to 7 million in space. Either sign some one year deals, or just sit on it. We will be farther under the cap in 2005 when Whites 6 million will come off the books.

And of course, if Kobe decides to not opt-out, he'll be an UFA in 2005 as well. So our options will be greater, and we will have more money to work with (although that summer may be the summer of Amare and JJ's extensions).

 

[George O'Brien]

Getting rid of Googs this year would be strictly financial. It save the Colangelos money, but does not do anything in terms of increasing the chance of getting a free agent.

A stronger case could be made for moving Dice. By Feb 12, he might actually be worth enough to get the team a future 2nd and not require any supplimental picks coming from the Suns. He could actually help the Jazz this year at minimal cost to them.

The only way they don't do that is if they think they might want Dice next year, which seems doubtful.

 

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by George O'Brien
Getting rid of Googs this year would be strictly financial. It save the Colangelos money, but does not do anything in terms of increasing the chance of getting a free agent.

A stronger case could be made for moving Dice. By Feb 12, he might actually be worth enough to get the team a future 2nd and not require any supplimental picks coming from the Suns. He could actually help the Jazz this year at minimal cost to them.

The only way they don't do that is if they think they might want Dice next year, which seems doubtful.

Is that even possible? Can we trade him so soon after he has been traded to us?

I may be mistaking this for the free agency signing rules though...

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Moving googs will help the chance of a FA. If the suns package him with a pick, or a player like Jacobson or Jake, that will free up around 2-4 million in guaranteed money.

However, that much space will only be needed if we are targetting Kobe. Otherwise we are just giving away talent.

So, if the suns do make a move like this, I would assume they have targetted Bryant. The Suns will make moves to save money, but they will not give away a lot of talent to do it. We are no longer a tax player I believe, since we wiaved Ward.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Originally posted by thegrahamcrackr
The only way they trade Googs IMO is if they honestly think they have a great chance at landing Kobe. There is no real reason otherwise.

I'm sorry, but I don't think that is true. This is a business and there are financial concerns. How do you explain to your ownership group that C-Jake and a pick are worth $20 million cash?

Its not that I don't like Casey. I like him alot, and I think he will be a very good player in this league. That's why I think Utah might bite. I think they like him alot too.

Casey is the tough-nosed intelligent type of player that Jerry Sloan loves. He would thrive with the Jazz.

Here's why the finances work.

Savings:
The rest of Googs pay for this season. $6 million plus.
Lux tax liability off the books. $9 million. (We trade Googs and his salaray and take back $3 million or so).
Lux tax benefit. $5 million (If we can get below, we get a share of the taxes that the other teams pay. I do believe we get that if we get below the tax threshold. If we have to get below the salary cap level to benefit, then this trade won't get us there).

That approaches $20 million. The economic advantages are overwhelming. An owner has to have money to burn in order to turn down such a deal.

 

[capologist]

Most estimates say that the Suns can save about $20 million in cash this spring by trading Googs.

Those estimates are wrong.

Googs has $6.42M remaining on his contract. That amount decreases by more than $0.12M with each passing game.

We currently have a payroll of $58.12M, not including Charlie Ward. I’m not sure how Ward counts for luxury tax purposes, but figure that our Team Salary, for tax purposes, is at most $62.6M. The Team Escrow Limit for this season is $55.8M, so we’re looking at a tax payment of, at most, $6.8M.

So that brings us to a savings of $13.2M (or less) in salary and taxes if Googs is traded, for nothing, before our next game. We can only guess at the impact on our share of distributions of tax proceeds, but it won’t be $6.8M.

So figure we’re talking about, at the outside, a $16M impact in salary, taxes, and distributions. If we include $3M cash in the trade, we’re talking about a net savings of $13M cash.

My prediction:

Casey Jacobsen
Lottery pick (NY pick)
Enough cash to pay cover Goog's salary for the rest of the year.

You’re basically proposing that we sell Casey Jacobsen’s contract and a potential lottery pick for $13M in cash. That’s insane. The value of a good pick to a franchise can be a hell of a lot more than that.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by Chaplin
Is that even possible? Can we trade him so soon after he has been traded to us?

I may be mistaking this for the free agency signing rules though...

I think the issue relates to combo trades. The Suns would have a problem trading Dice and Jacobsen as a group, but could send each of them separately to the Jazz because they are below the cap.

Originally posted by thegrahamcrackr
Moving googs will help the chance of a FA. If the suns package him with a pick, or a player like Jacobson or Jake, that will free up around 2-4 million in guaranteed money.

Including Jake or Casey changes the ultimate nature of the deal, though it might make sense if there was someone on the Jazz they wanted.

 

[scotsman13]

googs wont be traded. JC promised him that he wouldnt be traded if he signed here. so it wont happen. on top of that googs is a FA this summer his contract is up anyway so that has nothing to do with signing kobe or anyone else. the only reason to trade googs anywhere is to save money for this season.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Cap, I think that Ward's contract will not count against the luxary tax.

Since he was waived, he would remain on our salary cap for the year, but not against tax. The tax to my understanding is configured based on your salary at the end of the season.

Actually, since he wasn't bought out, he wont count against anything. His contract was not guaranteed, so I don't think it will affect us in anyway.

So that would put us at paying about 2.6 million in taxes this year right??

Thanks for the numbers as always Cap.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Thanks for the numbers Cap. I was just repeating what I had read some other place.

It would be "selling" C-Jake and a pick for $13 million.

But I am not proposing it. I am predicting it. I would not like it myself. I would rather keep Casey and the picks. Its just as I am watching things unfold with the Suns right now, it looks to me like this is what might happen.

What do you think it would take to get Utah to take Googs? If Utah would take less, I would be thrilled.

Would Utah be willing to buy Casey and a pick for $6 million and change?

 

[Chaplin]

I think our main goal right now is pretty simple: Find some way to get rid of Jahidi and/or Howard Eisley. That's it. No Shawn Marion, no McDyess. Jahidi White and Howard Eisley trades should be our #1 priority, if some of us are correct in assuming Kobe will be our target next summer.

The question now is, how to get it done?

 

[capologist]

Originally posted by thegrahamcrackr
Cap, I think that Ward's contract will not count against the luxary tax.

Since he was waived, he would remain on our salary cap for the year, but not against tax. The tax to my understanding is configured based on your salary at the end of the season.

Heh heh... If it were that easy, we’d just waive Googs and Dice.

The Collective Bargaining Agreement is rather poorly written, so sometimes it’s difficult to be sure what they’re trying to say. However, if you want to read the relevant rules, they are posted here. The luxury tax is described in Section 12. The amount of the tax described in that section depends on the Team Salary.

Section 4 describes how Team Salary is computed. It explicitly includes “Salaries payable to players whose Player Contracts have been terminated pursuant to the NBA’s waiver procedure,” which would include Ward. Note that, according to subsection (4)(c), the entire salary of a traded player is counted against the team that receives him in the trade. So if we trade Googs, we do not count his salary at all, and the team that receives him counts his entire $11.7M salary.

Now, for Ward, I think we still have to count any salary payable to him under the terminated contract, including salary paid to him by the Knicks prior to the trade. Ward’s salary for this season would have been $6.03M, had he remained under that contract for the entire season. He received $2.57M in salary for games played prior to the buyout. I don’t know the amount of the buyout itself, but I found one article that says we saved “about $3 million in salary and another $3 in luxury tax,” so that suggests that the buyout was probably about a half million, if that article is correct.

I figure we can safely put an upper bound of $2M on the buyout itself, which means that Ward would count about $4.6M against our cap, and a best guess of a half million, which means that Ward would count about $3.1M.

My numbers above are based on the $4.6M figure, which is why I qualify it with things like “at most.” The truth is probably closer to $3.1M, which means you can probably knock about $1.5M off of the numbers in that post.

 

[Espo]

i think it would be assinine for this organization to alienate its fan base even further by trading a first round possible lottery pick and a solid shooter in casey jacobson just to get googs off the books for three months. I think it is pretty stupid. Why waiste what could turn into two solid players on the team (casey and the draft pick) just to get googs off the books. if it were just casey maybe i could swallow it but i dont think i could ever be convinced that both the pick and casey were worth it. I'm sure we can find a team out there to take googs and eisley or googs and a 2nd round pick instead of this stupid deal with utah.

 

[capologist]

Oh, here is an article that puts the buyout at $2M.

Here is another.

Would Utah be willing to buy Casey and a pick for $6 million and change?

If it’s a pottential lottery pick, you bet your ass they would. Hell, they would anyway. It’s awfully damn tough to build a good team in the NBA without drafting well. The value of picks is huge.

Casey would probably be popular in Utah. He’s Mormon. 8)

 

[Joe Mama]

I know I was feeling better about Casey Jacobsen just a few weeks ago, but at this point I would give him to Utah to free his roster spot and get rid of next year's $1 million salary. For the most part I'm not disgusted with his play, but I don't think he really brings much to the table.

Would the Phoenix Suns trade Casey Jacobsen and a potential lottery pick (most likely late lottery) to save $6 million? That's debatable.

With the Phoenix Suns trade Casey Jacobsen and that potential lottery pick to save $13-19 million? You bet your ass they would. Are we ever really going to see that luxury tax though?

Whether we like the Marbury trade or not we can all agree on one thing I think. That is it has made things around here a lot more exciting. I don't remember the last time we had this much sustained activity. Even if nothing happens it's probably a good bet that the Phoenix Suns will be part of a lot of trade talk around the deadline. There should also be lots of talk about the Phoenix Suns around the draft as well.

Joe Mama

 

[JCSunsfan]

Originally posted by Joe Mama With [will] the Phoenix Suns trade Casey Jacobsen and that potential lottery pick to save $13-19 million? You bet your ass they would. Are we ever really going to see that luxury tax though?

Whether we like the Marbury trade or not we can all agree on one thing I think. That is it has made things around here a lot more exciting. I don't
Joe Mama [/B]

Thank goodness, someone else sees this. I thought I was going nuts. The Suns need to right their financial ship and its a good thing. Its good for the team in the long run.

That is a legit question though. Will there even be a lux tax this year? There was all kinds of discussion about it last year, but the player salaries did not reach the necessary percentage of total revenue to make it kick in. If there is no lux tax, then things change alot.

I will say that this trade has sparked my interest. My 16 year old son and I are going to the game on Tuesday and I am really excited about it. I want to get a good look at Barbosa, and also see how Amare and Zarko are coming along.

If only Lampe was playing.

 

[Chaplin]

Well, trading Casey may or may not be an option, but in reality, it probably isn't a very pressing option. I think Jahidi and Eisley are definitely the two guys we're going to try to combo together to trade, if in fact we are looking to free up more money--which, to me, means only one thing.

 

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by JCSunsfan
Thank goodness, someone else sees this. I thought I was going nuts. The Suns need to right their financial ship and its a good thing. Its good for the team in the long run.

That is a legit question though. Will there even be a lux tax this year? There was all kinds of discussion about it last year, but the player salaries did not reach the necessary percentage of total revenue to make it kick in. If there is no lux tax, then things change alot.

I will say that this trade has sparked my interest. My 16 year old son and I are going to the game on Tuesday and I am really excited about it. I want to get a good look at Barbosa, and also see how Amare and Zarko are coming along.

If only Lampe was playing.

And doesn't the CBA get redone next year? If so, then this summer would be the only summer the tax could come into effect, because word is the Union won't agree to a luxury tax in the next CBA.

 

[capologist]

Originally posted by Chaplin
I think Jahidi and Eisley are definitely the two guys we're going to try to combo together to trade, if in fact we are looking to free up more money--which, to me, means only one thing.

The only reason we’d need that kind of cap room right now is if we’re going after Kobe.

 

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by capologist
The only reason we’d need that kind of cap room right now is if we’re going after Kobe.

That's what I was implying, cap. I'm surprised you didn't pick that up!

 

[capologist]

I thought that was what you meant. I just wanted to be sure.

 

[newfan101]

It's possible the Suns could make a deal with Utah without having to give up a 1st round pick.

The deal would be Googs, Casey and 3 million cash for Keon Clark.

According to my calculations, Googs remaining salary at the Feb 19th deadline with be roughly 3.7 million. Casey's will be roughly $320,000. So combined their remaining salary would be 4.2 million.

However, if Utah were to trade back Keon Clark, who hasn't played at all for them, they would forgo his remaining 1.58 million in salary. So they would only owe the difference of 2.62 million. If we gave them 3 million in cash, they would technically make $380,000 from the deal, and get a nice young Mormon kid as a prospect.

From the Suns side, the deal would put them roughly at 54,400,000, or about 1 million under the luxury tax. (according to Caps figures, which currently has them at about 62 million)

I can't see where Utah would pay hardball and demand a 1st round pick on a deal that would technically make them a profit, as well as give them a nice prospect. Unless, of course, someone else offers them something better.

Any thoughts?