Pretty sure we clinched the division...

[BullheadCardFan]

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[Vermont Maverick]

Here you go

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hsandhu and The Cardinal have laid it out correctly. Tie breaker #1 thru #4 are still tied. Strength of victory is tie-breaker #5, and strength of schedule is #6. Seattle and Arizona would have beaten the same teams except for New Orleans and Cincinnati for Arizona, Pittsburg and Dallas for Seattle. Therefore, the combination of New Orleans and Cincinnati to have a better record than the combination of Dallas and Pittsburg for Arizona to win. TJ, the reason that your example came up with us losing the tiebreaker is because you chose a situation where New Orleans+Cinci do not have a better record than Pitts+Dallas.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

 

[Vermont Maverick]

Just freaking win a game... Unless Wilson gets hurt, they (Seattle) ain't losing again...they had a bye, 3 consecutive road games, and end the season--before us--with 3 lames on the schedule.

Meanwhile, will have played 4-6 on the road and may finish the season's finals 8 games with 7 games vs. playoff teams.

Seattle is healthy and rested and Cards are battered and tired.

Just win.

There are people in this thread who enjoy the math of the tie breakers. Everybody knows that if we win another game, we take the division, but it's interesting to figure out the other scenarios.

 

[Vermont Maverick]

Yep, If we lose out and Seattle wins out then it all comes down to how New Orleans, Dallas, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh all do over the last four weeks. We want Cincy and New Orleans to win as much as possible and Dallas and Pittsburgh to lose as much as possible. We're currently 3 games up there as currently Dallas and New Orleans have the same record and Cincy is 3 games up on Pittsburgh.

Or we could just win one of our last three and make it easy. Really just beat Green Bay and we've clinched the NFC West and a first round bye.

Perfectly said, Azlen.

 

[TJ]

hsandhu and The Cardinal have laid it out correctly. Tie breaker #1 thru #4 are still tied. Strength of victory is tie-breaker #5, and strength of schedule is #6. Seattle and Arizona would have beaten the same teams except for New Orleans and Cincinnati for Arizona, Pittsburg and Dallas for Seattle. Therefore, the combination of New Orleans and Cincinnati to have a better record than the combination of Dallas and Pittsburg for Arizona to win. TJ, the reason that your example came up with us losing the tiebreaker is because you chose a situation where New Orleans+Cinci do not have a better record than Pitts+Dallas.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

The argument was that we clinched the West, which we did not. SOV and SOS come into play later on down the road.

Not saying the OP is off base, but rather, pointing out that we in fact did not clinch the division.

Here's a good website for scripting out playoff scenarios and our odds of earning each seed:

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcstandings.com

 

[Redneck Voodoo]

FiveThirtyEight gives Seattle a 3% chance of all of that happening and winning the division.

Let's just beat philly and not worry about all of the other stuff.

Exactly...

 

[Vermont Maverick]

The argument was that we clinched the West, which we did not. SOV and SOS come into play later on down the road.

Not saying the OP is incorrect, but rather, pointing out that we in fact did not clinch the division.

Here's a good website for scripting out playoff scenarios and our odds of earning each seed:

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcstandings.com

You are right about that, we did not clinch the division. I do think that it is highly likely that Cinci/NO beat out Pitt/Dall, since they currently lead by 3 games. But we have not clinched.

Thanks for the link.

 

[CT Card Fan]

Here is a handy cheat sheet, plus some, for what The Cardinal and the OP already confirmed in terms of magic numbers:

1 seed: 5 Cardinal wins and/or Panther losses (yeah, I know)

2 seed: 2 Cardinal wins and/or Packer losses

Correct me if I am wrong, but the worst that can happen now is a tie with Minnesota and the Cards own head to head as first tie breaker.

3 seed (NFC West) 1 Cardinal win or tie and/or Seahawk loss or tie

OR 6 Total of Saints/Bengals wins and/or Steelers/Cowboys
losses

That last number could go down to 2 or 3 if the Pack beat the Cowboys, Bengals over Steelers and then depending on Saints versus Bucs.

 

[football karma]

Here is the one scenario where we finish second and get the 5th seed:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/mac...0791689~2~400791620~2~400791610~1~400791563~2

It does indeed come down to Pittsburgh and SOV for Seattle. The Steelers do not have to catch Cincinnati, but they do need to win their remaining four games, combined with four Seattle victories and the Cards losing the rest of their games. Far fetched, but if ALL of that happens, we'll not win the divison.

so we are really rooting for Cincy to beat Pitt this sunday. Yes?

 

[Dback Jon]

so we are really rooting for Cincy to beat Pitt this sunday. Yes?

Yes

 

[crisper57]

You have to factor in all games played in SOV. I'm too lazy to go back thru both schedules, but if FiveThirtyEight and every other site indicate we haven't clinched the division, it's because of SOV or SOS.

Remember, too, other teams' performances matter down the stretch.

This is the scenario we talked about yesterday after running the playoff simulator.

If both teams beat the same opponent, they cancel out. So with that being said, the Cardinals have 2 unique victories: New Orleans and Cincy. Seattle has two as well: Dallas and Pittsburgh.

Strength of victory only applies to these 4 teams if the Hawks win out and the Cards lose out.

So with 4 weeks remaining, there are basically 16 points up for grabs for the Cardinals. They get a point if NO or CIN wins OR PIT or DAL loses. In the instance where Cincy plays PIT, that game is worth 2 points.

The Cards need 6 points to clinch the division. If they only get 5, I believe the tiebreaker moves to strength of schedule. If they only get 4, Seattle wins the division.

 

[TheCardinal]

So with 4 weeks remaining, there are basically 16 points up for grabs for the Cardinals. They get a point if NO or CIN wins OR PIT or DAL loses. In the instance where Cincy plays PIT, that game is worth 2 points.

The Cards need 6 points to clinch the division. If they only get 5, I believe the tiebreaker moves to strength of schedule. If they only get 4, Seattle wins the division.

Yes, if the Cardinals only get five of the points, it goes to strength-of-schedule. Our differences would be that we played PHI/NO, and the Seahawks played DAL/CRL. Huge lead for Seattle, and technically insurmountable. If PHI/NO won enough games to catch DAL/CRL, it would force enough wins by NO and losses by DAL to have clinched the PRIOR tie-breaker in our favor (between NO wins and DAL losses, we would have claimed that elusive sixth point). So if it is destined to come down to SOS, we will have lost.

 

[babedimancheff]

so we are really rooting for Cincy to beat Pitt this sunday. Yes?

its not going to happen

 

[Vermont Maverick]

Yes, if the Cardinals only get five of the points, it goes to strength-of-schedule. Our differences would be that we played PHI/NO, and the Seahawks played DAL/CRL. Huge lead for Seattle, and technically insurmountable. If PHI/NO won enough games to catch DAL/CRL, it would force enough wins by NO and losses by DAL to have clinched the PRIOR tie-breaker in our favor (between NO wins and DAL losses, we would have claimed that elusive sixth point). So if it is destined to come down to SOS, we will have lost.

Love the analysis, Cardinal.