Buried in another thread was a gorgeous research gem from Cardiac.
This is where a nerd like me jumps in to lend a hand, but first let’s let Logic take it further:
...But that's in terms of total Super Bowls and including wins and losses. I wanted to change the scope of the research. I wanted to have the following information.
1) How drastically does the information change by keeping only “modern” era data? I'd be starting with 1993, the first year of Plan A Free Agency. It’s a game-changer. Things like the cap (which will likely return with a new CBA) and getting a large pool of available veterans in their prime changes the way teams draft rookie QBs.
2) Which QBs have been taken in the first round?
3) Who’re some other notable draftees from those classes?
4) Is there a correlation between draft status and team success?
Here's a spreadsheet!:
1) There have been only a handful of different QBs in Super Bowls since 93.
Aikman, Kelly, Humpries, Young, O'Donnell, Farve, Bledsoe, Elway, Chandler, Warner, McNair, Dilfer, Collins, Brady, Gannon, Johnson, Delhomme, McNabb, Rothlisberger, Hasselbeck, Manning, Grossman, and Brees.
That’s only 23 different guys for 18 different games. Significantly lower then I expected.
Of those, 9 of them were first round draft picks from 1993 or later.
2) Take another look at the list of QBs taken in the first round. Go ahead, I’ll wait...
lotta guys didn’t pan out huh?
43 guys taken in the first round. Only about half of them had any real impact in the league.
It’s common knowledge that just because we’ve drafted a guy in the 1st doesn’t mean we’re guaranteed wins, but it is a timely reminder as we sit just outside the non-era of Leinart, and are starting to ramp up for the draft (paging Shogun, Early, and all other draftniks!).
3) Dear god! Never draft a QB in the second round, they have an even lower success rate. Out of 19 draftees only 3 have had impact, and don’t forget Brees was on the threshold of disappointment before flashing anything in SD (remember they drafted Rivers because they weren’t sure Brees could get it done).
Like CardLogic pointed out, at least the 2nd-day draftees came to play.
4) Bottom line: First rounder QBs are still vitally important.
This is very strong correlating evidence that having a first round QB gives you a better shot at the Super Bowl.
You can make the argument that 1 maybe 2 of the QBs on that list were not vital factors in their team appearance, but it seems that if you want to go to the biggest show you have to... bring the biggest girl? Maybe the first girl...
This years QB class looks healthier then most, but only time will tell if we've got another '04 on our hands or if we'll cry like it's 1999.
This is where a nerd like me jumps in to lend a hand, but first let’s let Logic take it further:
...But that's in terms of total Super Bowls and including wins and losses. I wanted to change the scope of the research. I wanted to have the following information.
1) How drastically does the information change by keeping only “modern” era data? I'd be starting with 1993, the first year of Plan A Free Agency. It’s a game-changer. Things like the cap (which will likely return with a new CBA) and getting a large pool of available veterans in their prime changes the way teams draft rookie QBs.
2) Which QBs have been taken in the first round?
3) Who’re some other notable draftees from those classes?
4) Is there a correlation between draft status and team success?
Here's a spreadsheet!:
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1) There have been only a handful of different QBs in Super Bowls since 93.
Aikman, Kelly, Humpries, Young, O'Donnell, Farve, Bledsoe, Elway, Chandler, Warner, McNair, Dilfer, Collins, Brady, Gannon, Johnson, Delhomme, McNabb, Rothlisberger, Hasselbeck, Manning, Grossman, and Brees.
That’s only 23 different guys for 18 different games. Significantly lower then I expected.
Of those, 9 of them were first round draft picks from 1993 or later.
2) Take another look at the list of QBs taken in the first round. Go ahead, I’ll wait...
lotta guys didn’t pan out huh?
43 guys taken in the first round. Only about half of them had any real impact in the league.
It’s common knowledge that just because we’ve drafted a guy in the 1st doesn’t mean we’re guaranteed wins, but it is a timely reminder as we sit just outside the non-era of Leinart, and are starting to ramp up for the draft (paging Shogun, Early, and all other draftniks!).
3) Dear god! Never draft a QB in the second round, they have an even lower success rate. Out of 19 draftees only 3 have had impact, and don’t forget Brees was on the threshold of disappointment before flashing anything in SD (remember they drafted Rivers because they weren’t sure Brees could get it done).
Like CardLogic pointed out, at least the 2nd-day draftees came to play.
4) Bottom line: First rounder QBs are still vitally important.
This is very strong correlating evidence that having a first round QB gives you a better shot at the Super Bowl.
You can make the argument that 1 maybe 2 of the QBs on that list were not vital factors in their team appearance, but it seems that if you want to go to the biggest show you have to... bring the biggest girl? Maybe the first girl...
This years QB class looks healthier then most, but only time will tell if we've got another '04 on our hands or if we'll cry like it's 1999.
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