Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
If, like me, you were waiting for the bowl games to provide a little more clarity to QB selection I suspect you were disappointed. I was stunned as to how badly they played. Rudolph looked decent, but Ole Miss ranked 52nd in pass defense. That’s not a horrible number but it’s not the mark of a tough defense either. Allen had a good half, but looked mediocre in the second half. After that nobody looked like a QB you’d want to bet your future on if you were a GM. I could wait for All-Star games, the Combine and the Pro Days, but I don’t see them impacting my positioning.
Every scout has their own criteria. However they have a saying they constantly use. I posted it already on a thread. “Trust the talent.” It means focus more on their tools than their results. Consider the fate of Mayfield. The play calling in his game was among the worst I’ve seen. I don’t say they to excuse his performance. It should have been better. It’s just to point out factors like teammate performance, play calling, injury status and many other factors impact the numbers, but don’t always tell the story about the abilities.
For my money I give a great deal of weight to love of the game. It’s one reason I’m doubtful about Nkemdiche. Anyway as I rank these QBs I’m going to share what I’m hearing and what I’m thinking. Plus I’m anxious to hear the board’s thinking. So here goes.
Sam Darnold will go first, I have him third.
Sam Darnold is the top QB among the group with whom I talk. He has the prototypical size scouts pray to find. He has above average arm strength and his self-confidence is unshakeable. Of course for me that’s the problem. He takes unnecessary risks that cost winnable games. I expect Cleveland to grab him.
Josh Rosen will go second, I have him second.
He offers solid arm strength, good game management and seems to be a willing student of the game. He has a low bust potential. I wish he were more dynamic but it’s hard not to feel good about him as a selection. I think with Eli as a mentor, he’d be an awesome choice for the Giants. I hear their scouts like him. Some Cleveland scouts like him too and he’s a safer pick than Darnold for a team that has made too many mistakes. Still I think Cleveland goes Darnold.
Josh Allen is the majority pick for third. I have him sixth.
Allen’s a raw talent that’s had to work with erratic personnel and mediocre coaching. There’s no question he has tools. However he’s very raw and has virtually no advanced skills. He has a big arm and good running legs. If he can be coached up he could be huge. He could also be the next Jay Cutler. I surely missed on him. I should have paid more attention to his lack of love for the game. I hear Denver likes Allen but prefers a free agent.
Baker Mayfield was rising before the Georgia game. Now he’s a consensus fourth. I have him first.
No one disputes his talent. He passes aggressively, but is rarely intercepted. He personifies a mobile QB. He leads and motivates better than any other prospects. He has trouble with self-control. If he matures out of this behavior he can be great. He’s also not the ideal height. People keep saying few QBs of his height have succeeded. I maintain few if any of them had his talent level. If the Cards want Mayfield they may have to consider going after Cleveland's second pick. Despite the very deep QB pool I expect the top 4 QBs to be gone by pick 6 at the latest.
Mason Rudolph would likely go next. I have him here also.
I’m seeing a few people make more of his Bowl performance than I believe it merits. One guy actually had him on top. Most people see him as a Trubisky clone with a steady, solid career being the feeling of most. Again he’s not a big motivator of men, but he’s viewed as solid by his teammates. I think he definitely goes round 1.
Lamar Jackson is the next man up. Again I’m in agreement.
A dual threat QB, he’s improved dramatically this year. Some project similar growth in his next year. If that were to happen, he be a fine player others are not as certain of his ability to continue to progress. He has a big arm, is the top runner among this group and is likely the best athlete. I like him but I think he’s more than a year from being NFL ready to start.
Beyond this group consensus breaks down. Others considered for day two include Luke Faulk, Mike White, Drew Lock, Riley Ferguson and Ryan Finley.
It’s not unusual for some scout to convince some GM that they have a sleeper. So you’ll hear several others QBs selected but almost certainly on day 3.
Every scout has their own criteria. However they have a saying they constantly use. I posted it already on a thread. “Trust the talent.” It means focus more on their tools than their results. Consider the fate of Mayfield. The play calling in his game was among the worst I’ve seen. I don’t say they to excuse his performance. It should have been better. It’s just to point out factors like teammate performance, play calling, injury status and many other factors impact the numbers, but don’t always tell the story about the abilities.
For my money I give a great deal of weight to love of the game. It’s one reason I’m doubtful about Nkemdiche. Anyway as I rank these QBs I’m going to share what I’m hearing and what I’m thinking. Plus I’m anxious to hear the board’s thinking. So here goes.
Sam Darnold will go first, I have him third.
Sam Darnold is the top QB among the group with whom I talk. He has the prototypical size scouts pray to find. He has above average arm strength and his self-confidence is unshakeable. Of course for me that’s the problem. He takes unnecessary risks that cost winnable games. I expect Cleveland to grab him.
Josh Rosen will go second, I have him second.
He offers solid arm strength, good game management and seems to be a willing student of the game. He has a low bust potential. I wish he were more dynamic but it’s hard not to feel good about him as a selection. I think with Eli as a mentor, he’d be an awesome choice for the Giants. I hear their scouts like him. Some Cleveland scouts like him too and he’s a safer pick than Darnold for a team that has made too many mistakes. Still I think Cleveland goes Darnold.
Josh Allen is the majority pick for third. I have him sixth.
Allen’s a raw talent that’s had to work with erratic personnel and mediocre coaching. There’s no question he has tools. However he’s very raw and has virtually no advanced skills. He has a big arm and good running legs. If he can be coached up he could be huge. He could also be the next Jay Cutler. I surely missed on him. I should have paid more attention to his lack of love for the game. I hear Denver likes Allen but prefers a free agent.
Baker Mayfield was rising before the Georgia game. Now he’s a consensus fourth. I have him first.
No one disputes his talent. He passes aggressively, but is rarely intercepted. He personifies a mobile QB. He leads and motivates better than any other prospects. He has trouble with self-control. If he matures out of this behavior he can be great. He’s also not the ideal height. People keep saying few QBs of his height have succeeded. I maintain few if any of them had his talent level. If the Cards want Mayfield they may have to consider going after Cleveland's second pick. Despite the very deep QB pool I expect the top 4 QBs to be gone by pick 6 at the latest.
Mason Rudolph would likely go next. I have him here also.
I’m seeing a few people make more of his Bowl performance than I believe it merits. One guy actually had him on top. Most people see him as a Trubisky clone with a steady, solid career being the feeling of most. Again he’s not a big motivator of men, but he’s viewed as solid by his teammates. I think he definitely goes round 1.
Lamar Jackson is the next man up. Again I’m in agreement.
A dual threat QB, he’s improved dramatically this year. Some project similar growth in his next year. If that were to happen, he be a fine player others are not as certain of his ability to continue to progress. He has a big arm, is the top runner among this group and is likely the best athlete. I like him but I think he’s more than a year from being NFL ready to start.
Beyond this group consensus breaks down. Others considered for day two include Luke Faulk, Mike White, Drew Lock, Riley Ferguson and Ryan Finley.
It’s not unusual for some scout to convince some GM that they have a sleeper. So you’ll hear several others QBs selected but almost certainly on day 3.
