Reason to keep Denny: look at Shottenheimer and Vermeil

[Lomax to Green 84]

I keep thinking about when the Cards fired Joe Bugel at the end of the 1993 season, even when he had the Cards on a major roll at the end of the year. Sure Bugel didn't do much in his first 3 years, but he had that team really cranking by the end of the year. I recall reading an article in Sporting News that mentioned that the Bugel firing was gut wrenching for the old man (Bidwill Sr.), but some others in the organzation convinced him to let Bugel go. Imagine what could have been if they had stayed the course with Bugel. I recall Jimmy Johnson saying that as coach of the Cowboys in 1993 (Super Bowl Champs), the Cards were the 2nd best team in that division hands down by the end of the year.

Now back to the purpose of this post: I think Bidwill needs to take a long hard look at what Marty Shottenheimer and Dick Vermiel did their first 2-3 years when they took over the Chargers and Rams respectively. Both guys were called past their time, needed to be fired and replaced by some new up and comer. The Rams in particular were in near mutiny during the 1998 season and ownership was really close to firing Vermeil. Shottemheimer was considered the biggest buffoon in football after the 2003 season, and yet the Chargers brass kept him on and look at what happened in both cases.

I'm not a huge Denny Green fan, but I really worry about giving up and having to start over. If this organization didn't have such a losing mantra, I could understand giving Green the hook and looking elsewhere, but this team is known around the league as a graveyard for head coaches.

I see alot of 1993 in this team. If we continue to play hard, tough football the next 3 weeks, it's going to be really tough to blow everything up.

 

[JasonKGME]

I keep thinking about when the Cards fired Joe Bugel at the end of the 1993 season, even when he had the Cards on a major roll at the end of the year. Sure Bugel didn't do much in his first 3 years, but he had that team really cranking by the end of the year. I recall reading an article in Sporting News that mentioned that the Bugel firing was gut wrenching for the old man (Bidwill Sr.), but some others in the organzation convinced him to let Bugel go. Imagine what could have been if they had stayed the course with Bugel. I recall Jimmy Johnson saying that as coach of the Cowboys in 1993 (Super Bowl Champs), the Cards were the 2nd best team in that division hands down by the end of the year.

Now back to the purpose of this post: I think Bidwill needs to take a long hard look at what Marty Shottenheimer and Dick Vermiel did their first 2-3 years when they took over the Chargers and Rams respectively. Both guys were called past their time, needed to be fired and replaced by some new up and comer. The Rams in particular were in near mutiny during the 1998 season and ownership was really close to firing Vermeil. Shottemheimer was considered the biggest buffoon in football after the 2003 season, and yet the Chargers brass kept him on and look at what happened in both cases.

I'm not a huge Denny Green fan, but I really worry about giving up and having to start over. If this organization didn't have such a losing mantra, I could understand giving Green the hook and looking elsewhere, but this team is known around the league as a graveyard for head coaches.

I see alot of 1993 in this team. If we continue to play hard, tough football the next 3 weeks, it's going to be really tough to blow everything up.

Simple math:

Cards go 0-3 next 3 games and Denny's chances of being retained 0%

Cards go 1-2 next 3 games, Denny's odds increase to 20%

Cards go 2-1 next 3 games, Denny's odds at 50% (if they are quality wins and a competitive loss the 50% is probably yes, if they are crap wins (i.e. we beat SF on luck, and SD's 2nd-3rd stringers and barely win and get blown out by Denver, then 50% is probabably a no)

Cards go 3-0 next 3 games, ending the season 7-9 and 6-2 in the second half, and Denny will have a solid 80% chance of staying, and possibly getting an extension.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

Very well thought out.

 

[TheCardFan]

Simple math:

Cards go 0-3 next 3 games and Denny's chances of being retained 0%

Cards go 1-2 next 3 games, Denny's odds increase to 20%

Cards go 2-1 next 3 games, Denny's odds at 50% (if they are quality wins and a competitive loss the 50% is probably yes, if they are crap wins (i.e. we beat SF on luck, and SD's 2nd-3rd stringers and barely win and get blown out by Denver, then 50% is probabably a no)

Cards go 3-0 next 3 games, ending the season 7-9 and 6-2 in the second half, and Denny will have a solid 80% chance of staying, and possibly getting an extension.

NO WAY does he get an extension! IF he is allowed to finish his last year, that will be the year to "earn" an extension. 6/7 wins is not earning sh**.

I have been one of the biggest Green supporters pre and post hiring but even if the Cards do win out...he has not earned an extension, he has earned a chance to finish his contract. I would love the Cards to finish the season strong, sign 1 or 2 FA's, and have another strong Green draft.

 

[Stronso]

NO WAY does he get an extension! IF he is allowed to finish his last year, that will be the year to "earn" an extension. 6/7 wins is not earning sh**.

I have been one of the biggest Green supporters pre and post hiring but even if the Cards do win out...he has not earned an extension, he has earned a chance to finish his contract. I would love the Cards to finish the season strong, sign 1 or 2 FA's, and have another strong Green draft.

If the Cards win out Green will be back and given a 2 year extension.

Each loss lessens that possibility by a 1/3.

 

[RedStorm]

Simple math:

Cards go 0-3 next 3 games and Denny's chances of being retained 0%

Cards go 1-2 next 3 games, Denny's odds increase to 20%

Cards go 2-1 next 3 games, Denny's odds at 50% (if they are quality wins and a competitive loss the 50% is probably yes, if they are crap wins (i.e. we beat SF on luck, and SD's 2nd-3rd stringers and barely win and get blown out by Denver, then 50% is probabably a no)

Cards go 3-0 next 3 games, ending the season 7-9 and 6-2 in the second half, and Denny will have a solid 80% chance of staying, and possibly getting an extension.

I agree but I don't think Bill Sr will give an extension. But, if he does win out then maybe Denny is coach/acting GM next year with mikey. (Graves is gone IMO).

But, I agree that BB will have a hard time letting DG go if he wins out.

 

[RedStorm]

NO WAY does he get an extension! IF he is allowed to finish his last year, that will be the year to "earn" an extension. 6/7 wins is not earning sh**.

I have been one of the biggest Green supporters pre and post hiring but even if the Cards do win out...he has not earned an extension, he has earned a chance to finish his contract. I would love the Cards to finish the season strong, sign 1 or 2 FA's, and have another strong Green draft.

6/7 wins is when you have only had 4 wins the last couple yrs.

If he wins out BB will keep him for the final year. Dangle acting GM in front of him. And, if he gets 9 or 10 wins next year then he becomes the permanant GM and starts looking for his replacement.

 

[ajcardfan]

NO WAY does he get an extension! IF he is allowed to finish his last year, that will be the year to "earn" an extension. 6/7 wins is not earning sh**.

I have been one of the biggest Green supporters pre and post hiring but even if the Cards do win out...he has not earned an extension, he has earned a chance to finish his contract. I would love the Cards to finish the season strong, sign 1 or 2 FA's, and have another strong Green draft.

All they have to do is go ahead and pick up the fifth year of his deal. If they won't do that, they should fire him---period. Bringing in a lame duck coach is STUPID. No one does it anymore. Twice before I asked if anyone could give me one example of a lame duck coach doing well, but no one has yet.

 

[Russ Smith]

All they have to do is go ahead and pick up the fifth year of his deal. If they won't do that, they should fire him---period. Bringing in a lame duck coach is STUPID. No one does it anymore. Twice before I asked if anyone could give me one example of a lame duck coach doing well, but no one has yet.

isn't Schottenheimer in the last year of his contract or am I misremembering
that ?

But I agree, lame ducks don't win, nobody listens to a coach they know has no job security.

 

[ajcardfan]

isn't Schottenheimer in the last year of his contract or am I misremembering
that ?

But I agree, lame ducks don't win, nobody listens to a coach they know has no job security.

Schotty is signed through 2007. Which was why there was much speculation that this would be his last year, since no one retains a lame duck coach.

 

[Mitch]

Comparing Dennis Green to Shottenheimer is like comparing Jim Hanifan to George Allen.

Comparing Dennis Green to Dick Vermeil is like comparing Rich Kotite to Bill Walsh.

Dennis Green doesn't have half of the passion that Shottenheimer has, nor one iota of the work ethic Vermeil has.

The comparisons are ludicrous.

 

[Goodyear Card]

I don't believe all of this lame duck coach crap. Denny is the coach until is fired. If the Cardinals have an option year then he is not a lame duck. Even if has a guaranteed contract he could be fired at any time. You are always a lame duck as a HC. Coaches get fired for not having a winning season or not making the playoffs or failing to win in the playoffs or for any number of reasons. You have to earn you job every day in the NFL because there is always someone looking to take your Job.

 

[conraddobler]

I don't believe all of this lame duck coach crap. Denny is the coach until is fired. If the Cardinals have an option year then he is not a lame duck. Even if has a guaranteed contract he could be fired at any time. You are always a lame duck as a HC. Coaches get fired for not having a winning season or not making the playoffs or failing to win in the playoffs or for any number of reasons. You have to earn you job every day in the NFL because there is always someone looking to take your Job.

The team wins out and he lame ducks it, they'll still want to win, they're having fun winning now, learning that it's a ton better than the alternative.

This team will play hard for almost anyone, they've proved that the last few games, they're not playing for a thing now except possibly themselves and to a lesser degree to save DG's job.

They'll let it fly again next year no matter what DG's contract status is and they've also proven that even when they are pretty sure he's gone they'll play just to win.

It's a dead issue to me, his lame duck status that is.

 

[az1965]

isn't Schottenheimer in the last year of his contract or am I misremembering
that ?

But I agree, lame ducks don't win, nobody listens to a coach they know has no job security.

But isn't Green kind of lame duck right now with everyone pretty much sold on the fact that he is essentially fired at the end of the season? Yet, players are playing hard and winning games now.

So my question is what difference does it make whether a coach is in the last year of his contract or not since coaches these days have very short time to turn a franchise around 3-4 years otherwise they are usually fired anyway whether they are in thier final year of contract or not.

 

[az1965]

I don't believe all of this lame duck coach crap. Denny is the coach until is fired. If the Cardinals have an option year then he is not a lame duck. Even if has a guaranteed contract he could be fired at any time. You are always a lame duck as a HC. Coaches get fired for not having a winning season or not making the playoffs or failing to win in the playoffs or for any number of reasons. You have to earn you job every day in the NFL because there is always someone looking to take your Job.

Yeah, I agree...

 

[az1965]

The team wins out and he lame ducks it, they'll still want to win, they're having fun winning now, learning that it's a ton better than the alternative.

This team will play hard for almost anyone, they've proved that the last few games, they're not playing for a thing now except possibly themselves and to a lesser degree to save DG's job.

They'll let it fly again next year no matter what DG's contract status is and they've also proven that even when they are pretty sure he's gone they'll play just to win.

It's a dead issue to me, his lame duck status that is.

Same thing what I said in my post... did not see your responses, but I agree with you folks.

 

[TheCardFan]

6/7 wins is when you have only had 4 wins the last couple yrs.

If he wins out BB will keep him for the final year. Dangle acting GM in front of him. And, if he gets 9 or 10 wins next year then he becomes the permanant GM and starts looking for his replacement.

6-7 wins is not earning it with the most talent we have had on a roster in the last 20yrs+. 6-7 wins and only with the end of the season being on such a winning note, does he even have an ounce of a chance to stay.

New HC, new offense, new schemes, not a good idea for a young team, young QB, and a team lacking confidence already.

Green has a contract and an option year. If you don't plan to coach for 4yrs, then sign a contract for 3. This whole lame duck talk is a bunch of bull and I am from Texas...fill in the rest.

 

[ajcardfan]

This whole lame duck talk is a bunch of bull and I am from Texas...fill in the rest.

Just give me one example. That's all I'm asking for. Just one lame duck coach that took his squad to the playoffs.

In the meantime, I'll eliminate you as being Vince Tobin in real life!

 

[TheCardFan]

Just give me one example. That's all I'm asking for. Just one lame duck coach that took his squad to the playoffs.

In the meantime, I'll eliminate you as being Vince Tobin in real life!

Lovie Smith! Now stop it with your nonsense! (that is what they said on MNF lastnight)

 

[JeffGollin]

If the Cards win out Green will be back and given a 2 year extension.

Each loss lessens that possibility by a 1/3.

I think that's about right.

While there is some validity to the Schottenheimer/Vermeil "give the guy enough time to win" point of view, I've always been scared of pat formulae.

Each situation is unique. Dennis Green isn't Marty Schottenheimer. He's not Vermeil. Nor is he Joe Bugel or Vince Tobin. He's Dennis Green.

Will the team be better off with a new HC and a clean slate? Or will the team be better off maintaining continuity and building on what we've got? That's what ownership should be focusing on.

One telling indicator of what might happen can be found in an earlier off-the-cuff comment by Michael B who- referring to the impulsive firing of a Cardinal HC who had compiled a pretty good record but ran into a speed bump (Bugel?) - said: "We're not going to make that mistake ever again." This would suggest an inclination err' in the direction of continuity and to retain Dennis.

 

[Lomax to Green 84]

Comparing Dennis Green to Shottenheimer is like comparing Jim Hanifan to George Allen.

Comparing Dennis Green to Dick Vermeil is like comparing Rich Kotite to Bill Walsh.

Dennis Green doesn't have half of the passion that Shottenheimer has, nor one iota of the work ethic Vermeil has.

The comparisons are ludicrous.

I was not comparing Green to Vermiel or Shottenheimer. I was comparing his situation to their situation during their first couple of years with the Rams and Chargers. I wonder what you would have thought of Dick Vermiel when in 1998 his Rams were 4-12, and during the season the team considered not even taking the field against the Bears because they hated his coaching so much.

I give kudos to Denny for not calling out his players and his players appreciate that in him. Last week he got a game ball from the veterans for being will to take the brunt of the blame for the last few months.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

Comparing Dennis Green to Shottenheimer is like comparing Jim Hanifan to George Allen.

Comparing Dennis Green to Dick Vermeil is like comparing Rich Kotite to Bill Walsh.

Dennis Green doesn't have half of the passion that Shottenheimer has, nor one iota of the work ethic Vermeil has.

The comparisons are ludicrous.

Lazy and without "get-up-and-go" and still has over 100 wins as a head coach: How could that be?

Oh, I know... the wins are inspite of him, and all the looses are because of him.

(I've seen Dennis address his team pre and post game, and saw a fair amount of passion. As to his work habits, I would imagine that like other head coaches in the NFL he does his 10, 12, 14 hours a day... 6 days a week. Do you have any evidence to the contrary?)

 

[ajcardfan]

Lovie Smith! Now stop it with your nonsense! (that is what they said on MNF lastnight)

Nope. Lovie is in year 3 of a 4 year deal. Schottenheimer is also in the next to last year of his deal. Those two guys were already brought up before.

http://chicago.about.com/cs/sport1/a/011504_Bears.htm

 

[jefftheshark]

I could see M. Bidwill telling Green that he will be back next year and that anything less than a 4 - 4 start gets him canned, but anything above gets him an extension.

If Green falters, then this would at least give Kruzek a full year under his belt, if he needed to step in mid-year as HC.

The Shark

AJ - Would Wayne Fontes count as a successful lame duck?

 

[Captain Matt]

MIKE HOLMGREN..... I believe.

He was under contract through 1998 but really sought the GM/Head Coach combo title and Green Bay wasn't having it. Everyone thought he was looking to SF, but ended up in Seattle instead. Correct me if I'm wrong but 1998 was the last year of his contract, the team had extended like a 4mil/year offer for extension, but he shot it down because it didn't have a voidable "the 49ers are calling" caluse. I agree that this is completely different from DGs situation, but that 1998 Packers team under the lame duck coach was pretty solid.