Reasonable extension for Dumpster Dan?

[Chopper0080]

That sounds about right, I keep forgetting the issue we have with Fitz and his salary. Tough situation you'd like him to retire a Card but you almost wish the NFL had a amnesty clause like the NBA to get out from under such a contract too.

I agree with others it's not coincidence the run defense is still good, Dan has a lot to do with that, but you have to be careful you don't want to overpay for a guy who plays less than half the snaps.

about 1/3 of the snaps to be more accurate.

 

[MrYeahBut]

This guy is worth his weight in gold.

Yikes, I'd be leery of a contract based on his weight. Dude is over 3 bills.!

.

 

[crisper57]

Yikes, I'd be leery of a contract based on his weight. Dude is over 3 bills.!

.

If we take his current listed weight of 327 lbs and account for the current US price of $1,238.90 per ounce, we can calculate his worth as:

$6,481,924.89.

That would be okay with me.

 

[kerouac9]

I vacillate on the Dan Williams issue. I figured Ta'amu could replace him, but he's shown little this year.

Williams is good, but certainly replaceable. I'd offer about the same, but think someone's gonna give him 5 years 25 mil on the open market.

I disagree with this, mostly. I think you're seeing teams transition back to a 3-4 base defense specifically because it's difficult to find nose tackles who are effective at that position. We're certainly not going to find a guy who's as good as Dan Williams at that particular position in the 5th round, which means that the true cost of losing Dan Williams to free agency would be whatever we'd pay his replacement through free agency (when was the last time a good nose was available in free agency) plus the pick we'd use to replace him in the long-term.

I expect that we'll see Williams get more snaps as the season goes on to move into the 40% range.

It's really the difference between paying for a good #2 cornerback and a good tight end, or something. You have to overpay for a good tight end because top-shelf guys are difficult to find in free agency or the draft. The cost difference between a top #2 corner like Cromartie and an average guy is relatively small because the market has been so flooded the last two or three offseasons.

 

[Russ Smith]

The other point is even when he does play a low %, that doesn't discount his value. He's so good on the run plays that it helps us on pass plays even when he's not in, because it's 2nd or 3rd and long, not short.

 

[MrYeahBut]

If we take his current listed weight of 327 lbs and account for the current US price of $1,238.90 per ounce, we can calculate his worth as:

$6,481,924.89.

That would be okay with me.

ok ok wizard, thanks for making me look stupid.... as if that were hard to do..


.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

The other point is even when he does play a low %, that doesn't discount his value. He's so good on the run plays that it helps us on pass plays even when he's not in, because it's 2nd or 3rd and long, not short.

I agree. You can't base a NT's significance on snap count. I'm not sure what % Wilfork plays in NE but he's the gold standard for NT's these days and worth every cent he makes with them.

It seems consistent that Williams and Minter's snap counts are similar since they are both basically in on running downs.

 

[Stout]

If Larry Fitzgerald and Carson Palmer both stay on the roster in 2015, it's going to be virtually impossible to keep Dan Williams. Palmer could command in excess of $12M in 2015 money alone, and accounting tricks just push that cost into the future, when he likely wouldn't be on the roster. Even with a steep pay cut, Fitz would do significant damage to our cap.

I think that $5M per season would be fair for a guy who plays at a high level, but also a guy who's had some problems staying healthy, fit, and is only on the field for 30-40% of the defensive plays.

With a steep pay cut to Fitz, I think 5 mill a season is more than reasonable, and I think he'd take it. It isn't the highest payed position in the league.

With regards to usage, age, and position, I am offering him between 3 and 3.5 mil for 2 or 3 years tops. It is a salary cap league, and he just doesn't play enough snaps or is enough of a pass rush threat to justify more than that IMO. Similar situation to Shaughnessy IMO. If Williams wants to take a different deal somewhere else, the Cards can role with Ta'amu and Gaston, or bring in another body.

This is the kind of thinking that ruins your 3-4 defense. You don't treat a dominant NT in such a ho-hum manner. You seem to believe he'd be easy to replace and it wouldn't hurt our defense much to lose him. I think that view is shortsighted and lacks touch with the reality of what you need to run an effective 3-4 defense, and how difficult it is to find it.

I vacillate on the Dan Williams issue. I figured Ta'amu could replace him, but he's shown little this year.

Williams is good, but certainly replaceable. I'd offer about the same, but think someone's gonna give him 5 years 25 mil on the open market.

LOL Tell that to the Steelers, who are foundering after being unable to find even a serviceable replacement for Hampton. Hey, QBs are easy to replace too, right? lol

Dan Williams usage to date 31.7% of defensive snaps. The Ghost has played 30.8%. (violated my own rule but it is regards to Dan Williams so I will allow it)

Point being? He's such a vital part of stopping the run that he only has to play that percentage of downs. If he was playing 50 percent of the snaps, it would be a very bad thing. He does well on run downs, which presses opposing teams into passing the ball, leading to INTs and us getting them off the field.

Again, it seems like you're not clued in on the NTs true value to a 3-4 defense.

The other point is even when he does play a low %, that doesn't discount his value. He's so good on the run plays that it helps us on pass plays even when he's not in, because it's 2nd or 3rd and long, not short.

Bingo.

Look, I'm not saying he should be franchised or given ridiculous money, but all this blase attitude about losing and replacing him being fine is sheer foolishness. I hope it doesn't happen, because then the haters will learn a hard lesson at the expense of our run defense, and more than likely at the expense of us winning games.

 

[cardpa]

I think SK and BA both know the value of Williams and he will be offered a contract that is worth his value to the team and his play.

 

[TigToad]

He isnt a special player. That said, in a defense that stresses playing your assignment, Dan is invaluable. He stuffs mid runs. That's it, but that's enough. We need to keep him and he is a fit for our defense and he should want to stay. The expectations for what he should be doing is exactly what he can give.

 

[kerouac9]

I agree. You can't base a NT's significance on snap count. I'm not sure what % Wilfork plays in NE but he's the gold standard for NT's these days and worth every cent he makes with them.

It seems consistent that Williams and Minter's snap counts are similar since they are both basically in on running downs.

Wilfork has played a shocking 78% of New England's snaps this season. Really impressive, and I think that the Pats are increasingly playing a 4-3 base defense.

 

[Bodha]

The fact weve been one of the best run D teams for the past 3 years should tell you everything you need to know about Dan.

"But he doesnt put pressure on the QB!"

Thats like complaining Tyrann doesnt get a bunch of sacks. Thats not his job. D line does not = sacks. Different guys have different responsibilities.



Dan is superb and super valuable to our team. Hes both literally and figuratively the Center of our defense.

He will get extended, no doubt, and itll be a good price. Well deserved

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Who's saying that we're going to "let him walk"? I don't hear anyone advocating that. The question in the OP is what would be a "reasonable extension" for him?

If Larry Fitzgerald and Carson Palmer both stay on the roster in 2015, it's going to be virtually impossible to keep Dan Williams. Palmer could command in excess of $12M in 2015 money alone, and accounting tricks just push that cost into the future, when he likely wouldn't be on the roster. Even with a steep pay cut, Fitz would do significant damage to our cap.

I think that $5M per season would be fair for a guy who plays at a high level, but also a guy who's had some problems staying healthy, fit, and is only on the field for 30-40% of the defensive plays.

Agreed.

You forgot the impending 11.5 million dollar cap hit staring at the Cardinals in regards to what to do with Daryl Washington.

D-Waste really screwed this organization. They were going to have a little under 3 million in dead money next offseason, which would be the lowest total for this team in a long time. Now D-Waste goes and screws that up to hell. First thing I think about is the complaints about athletes and how their contracts are not guaranteed........bullcrap. I have a 11.5 million reasons to say that is hogwash. They get their money, and in situations like this, they literally steal it.

 

[kerouac9]

Agreed.

You forgot the impending 11.5 million dollar cap hit staring at the Cardinals in regards to what to do with Daryl Washington.

D-Waste really screwed this organization. They were going to have a little under 3 million in dead money next offseason, which would be the lowest total for this team in a long time. Now D-Waste goes and screws that up to hell. First thing I think about is the complaints about athletes and how their contracts are not guaranteed........bullcrap. I have a 11.5 million reasons to say that is hogwash. They get their money, and in situations like this, they literally steal it.

http://overthecap.com/player/daryl-washington/390/

$8.5M if he's released in 2015.

 

[az jam]

I think SK and BA both know the value of Williams and he will be offered a contract that is worth his value to the team and his play.

Totally agree, just hope he remains a Card!!