1. Browns — QB Sam Darnold, USC
General manager John Dorsey figures to choose between Darnold, whose final college season was a bit of a disappointment, and Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen, whose rocket arm belies his inexact accuracy.
“My gut tells me that, if you’re choosing between the two, Allen might have the higher ceiling, but you’ve swung and missed so many times in Cleveland at quarterback, can you afford another one with your first pick?” NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock said. “Your first pick has got to set the tone, and I think at the end of the day it will be Sam Darnold, and he’s got a little Brett Favre in him, which I think John likes. John likes a little swagger. He’ll make some mistakes and turn the ball over, but at the end of the day, that’s what my gut tells me.”
2. Giants — QB Josh Rosen, UCLA
The draft gets interesting at No. 2. That’s where Giants general manager Dave Gettleman must decide whether to surround aging veteran Eli Manning with the best available position player — be it Penn State running back Saquon Barkley or, perhaps, N.C. State edge rusher Bradley Chubb — or draft his eventual replacement.
The guess here is that he takes a quarterback. Mayock compares Rosen, who has the most natural throwing motion in the draft, to Sam Bradford.
“If they fall in love with the quarterback who they think is their franchise guy for the next 10 years, that has to trump everything else regardless of fans that want Barkley or whatever, and you have to take your quarterback,” Mayock said. “However, if you have any concern whatsoever, there are three great position players there, or you can trade down.”
3. Jets — QB Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
The Jets traded up to take a quarterback. The question is which one — or two or three — will be available.
“When I look at Baker Mayfield and the fit there, it’s not even really with (Jets offensive coordinator) Jeremy Bates, but when you look at the decision makers and you look at the quarterbacks that haven’t worked out there with the Jets, I think you can find Baker Mayfield kind of being that polar opposite,” NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said. “So to me, it goes a little bit of that, it’s almost you fire a coach, you hire the exact opposite of what you just fired. Baker Mayfield makes some sense there.”
5. Broncos — QB Josh Allen, Wyoming
Allen has the biggest arm Mayock has seen since notorious draft bust JaMarcus Russell.
“What I think differentiates this kid is his football IQ, passion, work ethic,” he said. “I could see a difference between 2016 and 2017, and I could see a difference between 2017 to the Combine and then again to the Pro Day.”
He’d benefit from a year as a backup — and the Broncos would happily oblige, given that they just gave Case Keenum a two-year deal.
“He has to get his eyes and his feet connected, and he needs about a thousand reps, and he needs to sit in a room behind Eli Manning or Drew Brees or Tom Brady,” Mayock said.
12. Bills — QB Lamar Jackson, Louisville
With both the No. 12 and No. 22 pick, the Bills are primed, if not likely, to move up to take their next quarterback. For our purposes, we’ll give them the best one available. The Bills have only two quarterbacks on their roster, and neither of them are starters on a good team: A.J. McCarron and Nathan Peterman.
15. Cardinals — S Derwin James, Florida State
They need a quarterback, too, but Tyrann Mathieu’s departure puts them in the market for a safety. James, if he’s still available, is a perfect fit for the team’s physical defense.
31. Patriots — QB Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State
By taking a quarterback in the first round, the Patriots will get the option to exercise Rudolph’s fifth-year option. Will Tom Brady still be around then?
