Rotation Promises To Be Tough Decision

[Irish]

The rotation for D'Antoni was pretty simple, but did not prepare well for injuries or giving guys rest. This year could be hard because there simply will not be enough minutes for every guy who deserves them.

Center - Shaq, Lopez
PF - Stoudemire, Diaw
SF - Barnes, Hill (or is it Hill, Barnes?)
SG - Bell, Barbosa
PG - Nash, Dragic

The problem is the math. Each position has 48 minutes (total 240). In most cases, rotations are built buy subtracting the starters minutes for each position for 48l.

36 - 12 This is a classic high minute starter. The starter will play 9 minutes, the backup comes in at the 9 minute point and play 6 minutes (3 to the break and then another three after the quarter break.

32 - 16 This is mid range starter and generally will work much the same as the high minute starter, ie 8 minutes, 8 for the backup and then finish with 8.

28 20 This is lower level starter and is often one backup up by a "Sixth Man" type.

Perhaps the last time in recent years someone even tried to do a 10 man rotation was Hubbie Brown in 2004-05 when they won 50 games. The top minute guy was Gasol with 32 minutes a game in 56 games. Mike Miller at 30 minutes and Battier at 31.5 minutes were the only guys over 30.

Gasol - 31.5 in 78 games
Miller - 27.2 in 65 games
Battier - 24.6 in 79 games
Wells - 24.9 in 69 games (mid season trade)
Swift - 19.8 in 77 games
J-Will - 29.4 in 72 games
Wright - 25.8 in 65 games
Outlaw - 19.6 in 82 games
Posey - 29.9 in 82 games
Watson - 20.6 in 81 games

Jake Tsakalidis actually started 28 games (of a total of 40 played) and averaged 13.3 minutes.

The next season, Brown was gone soon into the season but they continued to play a lot of guys, Outlaw was replaced by Cardinal, but due to injuries the team ended up with 10 guys averaging 20 or more minutes.

To give enough minutes to everyone in the rotation means cutting the minutes of their starters. Gasol would eventually get back up in the minutes you'd expect from a young star. The battle for minutes was a coninuting issue for that team, especially since they were generally under 30.

The Suns are different in that they have starters who need to be limited on their minutes, but baring injuries it is hard to keep everyone happy. Somebody is going to get left in cold:

Lopez - actually he should get his 20 plus because Shaq gets into foul trouble.

Diaw - could get extra minutes because of his versatility and too expsnisive to sit.

Barbosa - needs to play SG but lacks defense to replace Bell and too expensive to sit.

Dragic - they need him to get the experience in preparation for the playoffs and to give Nash some rest.

 

[AceP]

Playoff rotation will be very different to regular season one. Our core veterans, Nash, Hill, Shaq, all will play more minutes in playoff, but will definitely be preserved in the 82 games b4 that.

Average minutes per game is not accurate enough here, because, a reasonable prediction, Shaq will rest 20 games, Hill 15, Nash 10. The minutes for our bench players will be vary from game to game.

Barnes is almost certain to get 20mpg. If he shoots 3P better than we expected, he might get more, but 25 is the most.

To really develop Lopez and Dragic, 15mpg is got be guaranteed. Unless they play extremely poor, they should take almost all of the minutes behind Shaq and Nash.

Both Diaw and Barbosa will definitely see their minutes drop from last season. They were both close to 30mpg, Diaw 28.1 and Barbosa 29.5.

Diaw is the #2 PF (12-15 minutes behind Amare, very consistent here), #3 SF, and #3 C. He'll be limited to about 20 when everyone is healthy. But Shaq and Hill together will miss about 30 games or more.


For Barbosa, most of his minutes will be #2 SG after Bell, and if we rest Nash, the #2 PG. But Bell and Nash don't miss much games.

Nobody has mentioned this, a fresh and healthy Bell is VITAL for us in playoff. He is our best wing defender, and second best 3P shooter. And unlike Barbosa, Bell hit 3P with better % in playoff than regular season in all past years. He is 32 already, 35mpg for a whole season is too much, we can't afford to lose him to any injury. I believe we should, and, Porter / Kerr probably will, limit Bell's minutes to about 30mpg in regular season. That will leave nearly 20 minutes for Barbosa at SG.

After all, Diaw and Barbosa will get close to 25mpg in a full season. Should that make them happy and maintain a good form?

 

[Griffin]

On paper it appears as if we have a strong 10-man rotation, but in reality only eight of those guys have shown they can play and one of those eight (Barnes) is as big of a question mark as Giricek was when he became the 8th man late last season. This will be an interesting problem if all those guys, including Lopez and Dragic, show they deserve the playing time, and the rest of our guys stay relatively healthy. Right now, however, that is far from being a guarantee.

I don't see us being able to go 10-deep anyway, a 9-man rotation is more realistic, so someone will get benched, and Diaw is as likely candidate as anyone. Last two seasons we played him mostly out of necessity, even though his minutes kept dropping. This year, if our new guys play well and he continues to slide, he may be the odd man out.

 

[Irish]

We know Porter does not plan to play a 10 man rotation; but it is not obvious who gets left out. Baring injuries and "rest games", here is what to competition might look like.

1. Dragic: He will have to make a huge number of mistakes to LOSE his backup PG position. His job is to avoid losing big leads, so his defense may be just as big a deal as his offense. Fortunately Porter plans to run a more strucutred offense when Nash is out, something a lot of us have been calling for for years. His game is often compared to Parker's, but he is less of a shoot first guy. In any case, the Suns are going to let him make make mistakes because he has to develop for the Suns to be ready for post-Nash.

2. Lopez: Backing up Shaq should give him a lot of minutes IF HE PLAYS WELL. If he struggles, then Diaw gets some of the post minutes.

3. Diaw: Gimp may disagree, but Boris is just not active enough to get the kind of minutes he has in the past. His biggest problem could be if Lopez proves to be as good as the preseason reports suggest and they work Lopez at PF as well as center. Add in the fact that Barnes played some PF and Diaw could be the odd man out if he doesn't play harder. (Diaw's best position may be SF, but it seems unlikely he'll get minutes at that position baring injury).

4. Barbosa: A lot will depend on how well he plays defense, but also if he can handle a more structured offense than he faced when D'Antoni was coach. His problems at PG were heavily due to his poor vision and creativiety. On the upside, he may be getter at PG than in the past. On the downside, he could get pressure from Barnes or even Dragic at SG if he doesn't pick up his game.

In practical terms, someone will play himself out of the rotation and someone may force Porter to give him more minutes. This a far cry from the past when everyone know from day one if they would play.

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

I dont see Lopez becoming a regular in the rotation. Dragic may not even be ready as a regular.

 

[Andrew]

Barnes is going to contribute more than Lopez for the first few months...

 

[arwillan]

Barnes is going to contribute more than Lopez for the first few months...

was there ever a question that barnes would contribute the most immediately of all of the new guys?

 

[Superbone]

was there ever a question that barnes would contribute the most immediately of all of the new guys?

No. But I do think Lopez will be a regular part of the rotation.

 

[Irish]

No. But I do think Lopez will be a regular part of the rotation.

Everyting coming from the Suns organization is that are expecting Lopez to be in the rotation. At worst he appears to be a far better player than Hunter was. If Lopez does not play, then it is Diaw as the Shaq's backup - a return to small ball. IMHO, Lopez will play because they don't have much choice.

Here is an article on this subject:

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/suns/articles/2008/10/01/20081001spt-sunsnotes.html

Depth provides challenge for Porter

30 commentsby Paul Coro - Oct. 1, 2008 07:42 PM
The Arizona Republic
TUCSON - The depth the Suns have created is eventually going to be tough on coach Terry Porter when it comes time to decide on a rotation. Until then, it will be harder on players who must compete for minutes that were often assumed in the past.
There are 10 candidates for rotation spots but Porter said this summer that a nine-man rotation was more feasible. He has added the possibility of going to eight, making for some healthy battles.

"I like competitive everything," Porter said. "In practice, the games should be competitive. I think that's important as far as guys pushing each other. All the good teams I've been on, that second unit has always pushed the starting unit. That's how they get better."

The first practice unit has been Steve Nash, Raja Bell, Grant Hill, Amaré Stoudemire and Shaquille O'Neal with a second unit of Goran Dragic, Matt Barnes, Boris Diaw, Robin Lopez and Alando Tucker in Leandro Barbosa's absence.
"The starters are getting pushed by the second unit and vice versa," Hill said. "It makes for a better practice, a better camp and hopefully a better team."

Porter is committed to giving young players, and the bench, playing time early.
"You've got to build their confidence and let them know the coach has confidence in their ability to step in and play," Porter said. "Down the stretch, you're going to need them. You never know when someone turns an ankle."

Old school


Wednesday morning's practice ended with the team doing laps around the court in a line with arms in the air. On each Porter whistle, the last man sprinted to the front.
"All we need is Sheriff Joe (Arpaio) out here and put them in pink," Suns assistant Alvin Gentry joked.
Stoudemire said it reminded him of high school, prompting the question "Which one?" for a man who played at six.
"You got me," said Stoudemire, who moved better on his left ankle sprain and participated more.

Free throws



• Nash said this could be a bigger initial transition than 2004-05, when he said "Mike (D'Antoni) maybe wanted us to run but he didn't necessarily have a clear-cut plan. I think he adjusted to how he thought we'd be good and let it happen. That's where Mike did a great job. He let us identify ourselves and tweaked it. He said, 'This is a new group of young guys. Let me get out of their way a bit.' "

 

[Mainstreet]

The Suns look 10 deep strong on paper. However, I've found things can look different on the court. But right now it's preseason, so I will allow myself to believe. I'm counting on the rookies (plus some deeper bench players) to provide some excitement if nothing else. IMO, the Suns more or less went through the motions last season without the enthusiasm exhibited in previous years. Sometimes an infusion of youth can ignite a team by having players that will bust their rear just to get on the court.

 

[nowagimp]

I dont see Lopez becoming a regular in the rotation. Dragic may not even be ready as a regular.

Yup, the NBA will take lopez to school like any rookie big, and dragic will struggle offensively at first. If lopez becomes a defensive liability due to NBA vet tricks, Diaw will get some of his his post time. I like Lopez, he has some good potential, but school is about to open and this insn't the pac 10. Barnes time will depend on his ability to shoot the 3. Hill is a way better offensive player skills and versatility wise, but without that 3pter, he will not improve spacing as well as a hot shooting barnes. The whole assumption that the rotation will be a "hard decision" is what every coach wants, nothing hard about it at all. One tweak of an ankle or bruise and the coach has the luxury of bringing in a capable backup. And we know that no team goes through an NBA season without a number of tweaks.

 

[Mainstreet]

I dont see Lopez becoming a regular in the rotation. Dragic may not even be ready as a regular.

I wouldn't argue your point. However, if the Suns don't have one of their rookie PGs come through they are in trouble of even making the playoffs. Somebody is going to have to rest Nash.

In regard to Lopez, I've got this crazy feeling he is going to give the Suns some productive minutes. I just picture him as a energy player like Scott Pollard when he played for the Kings.

 

[Irish]

The change in the offensive scheme appears designed to make it possible to run thei offense without a super PG. We'll see if it can work, but it's better than killing Nash because nobody can play like him.

As for Lopez, I don't see him facing up on the elite centers but on their backups. In any case, the elite centers school long time veterans, so why is this different?

 

[nowagimp]

As for Lopez, I don't see him facing up on the elite centers but on their backups. In any case, the elite centers school long time veterans, so why is this different?

Uh, when shaq goes to the bench with fouls or to rest will amare guard the elite centers? They are saying that shaq will play less than 29 mins a game, sounds like somebody will guard the elite competition when he sits. If IM the opposing coach I want shaq in foul trouble so the suns must play small or use lopez( a rook). The soft underbelly of the suns D will be exposed when shaq sits, until lopez steps up. I even remember POPs bringing TD back early(in their normal rotation) when shaq went to the bench, and TD ate up the suns inside.

 

[Irish]

Uh, when shaq goes to the bench with fouls or to rest will amare guard the elite centers? They are saying that shaq will play less than 29 mins a game, sounds like somebody will guard the elite competition when he sits. If IM the opposing coach I want shaq in foul trouble so the suns must play small or use lopez( a rook). The soft underbelly of the suns D will be exposed when shaq sits, until lopez steps up. I even remember POPs bringing TD back early(in their normal rotation) when shaq went to the bench, and TD ate up the suns inside.

I'm still curious about who TD is going to defend: Shaq or Amare. TD stays out of foul trouble because he gets to be a weakside defender, but the Spurs won't be able to hide him anymore.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

I wouldn't argue your point. However, if the Suns don't have one of their rookie PGs come through they are in trouble of even making the playoffs. Somebody is going to have to rest Nash.

In regard to Lopez, I've got this crazy feeling he is going to give the Suns some productive minutes. I just picture him as a energy player like Scott Pollard when he played for the Kings.

From what I have read Lopez is going to get good minutes and everybody likes what they are seeing from him. I expect him to get ALL the back up Center (Especially when (not if) Shaq takes his customary 20 games off) minutes and even some of Diaws back up PF minutes. He bring something to the table we haven't had and most successful teams leverage. Energy with size off the bench.

I just don't see a guy with Boris's skill being much help under Porter. You would think if he was going to find a niche it would have been under D'Antoni with his size and skills. Now hes just a jack of all trades but not really good at any one thing. I see his minutes getting cut the most.

 

[nowagimp]

I'm still curious about who TD is going to defend: Shaq or Amare. TD stays out of foul trouble because he gets to be a weakside defender, but the Spurs won't be able to hide him anymore.

the spurs dont guard amare with one guy, almost never. Now if amare could make them pay for doubling him by passing the ball to a shooter, that would be nice. Until then, amare is easy to double, so one guy doesnt have to guard him.

 

[Mainstreet]

I just read on HoopsHype the Warriors signed Dan Dickau to what I understand is a non guaranteed contract. Maybe the Suns should have considered such a move as well with so much riding on the backup PG position. I wonder if the Suns are that sure they already have the answer on their roster (that can get it done now). There is more at SFGate.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/10/01/sports/s163006D88.DTL

 

[arwillan]

so far the warriors have three point guards under contract and are reportedly looking at livingston as well to try and generate some offense while ellis is out.

 

[Irish]

so far the warriors have three point guards under contract and are reportedly looking at livingston as well to try and generate some offense while ellis is out.

Livingston is just project. I'd be surprised if he made a serious contribution this season, but he might have long term value.

Arizona's Finest:
I just don't see a guy with Boris's skill being much help under Porter. You would think if he was going to find a niche it would have been under D'Antoni with his size and skills. Now hes just a jack of all trades but not really good at any one thing. I see his minutes getting cut the most.

We don't know exactly what the Suns offense will look like under Porter. Mostly we know what will change ei fewer early three point shots and less pick and roll. http://www.azcentral.com/sports/suns/articles/2008/10/01/20081001spt-suns.html

Nash:
"It's more realistic to be more balanced offensively," Nash said. "I don't know if it means less running but maybe less pick-and-rolls. A lot of times, we'd run pick-and-roll the whole fourth quarter. Sometimes, it gets tiring. That can be cumulative, but we didn't have a lot of options."

For all the talk about Diaw handling ball under D'Antoni, ball handling ball either Boris or Grant was still not that big a part of their offense. If they can get more assertiveness by Boris and more passing from Amare, both could be a lot more effective.

"I love the 3-point shot," Porter said. "Guys who can knock it down, we'll be watching closely from a percentage standpoint. Some guys' lights will be a little bit brighter than other guys' lights."

That's a huge change from D'Antoni who was reportedly getting on guys for NOT shooting. With more movement and less doubtfull shooting, the team should be more effiicient.

 

[nowagimp]

That's a huge change from D'Antoni who was reportedly getting on guys for NOT shooting. With more movement and less doubtfull shooting, the team should be more effiicient.

The suns have had the most efficient offense in the NBA for 4 years with nash running things. These teams were among the top 5-6 most efficient offenses in NBA history! Now,guys other than nash, with lower asst/TO ratios will be handling the ball more, its most likely that the offense will be less efficient, not more efficient. Terry porter has never coached a highly efficient offense, but the defense will undoubtedly get better due to both personnel and strategy. The suns will give up less easy baskets and make less easy ones as the game slows down. Saying the suns will become more efficient offensively is laughable. I'd be happy if they just maintained 95% of their offensive efficiency. But part of offensive efficiency is balance, and suns arent balanced with shooters to keep the spacing. Its funny how EVERY coach worth a crap in the NBA acknowledges the need for offensive spacing, but few fans understand it at all.

 

[Irish]

For the Suns to add to their efficiency, they need to do a few things:

1. Get productivity in the 12 to 18 minutes Nash is not on the floor. IMHO, that period has been a black hole that kills leads and puts opponents back in the game.

2. Cut down on constant abuse Nash gets by handling the ball so much. Double teaming Nash works too well because when passes the ball, the opponents know everybody will just give it back to him rather than find the open man.

3. Getting the ball to Shaq This will draw dboule tems and open up the Suns shooters without Nash having to do it all.

Just having more things for the defenses to woryy about should help, but in the long run the goal is to keep Nash fresh for the last five minutes of the games and for the playoffs.

The idea that the Suns might try to like the 2002-03 Kings (Porter's first job as an assistant coach) is notable. They won 59 games, shot 46.4% and opponents shot 42.0%. The Kings scored 103.4 ppg and opponents 97.1 ppg. http://www.basketballreference.com/teams/teamyear.htm?tm=SAC&lg=n&yr=2002

That was the team that lost in the second round when Webber was injured. That team the previous year took the eventual champion Lakers to 7 games and improved their defense from 44% to 42% despite having Peja as a starter.

Porter has become a big advocate of defense, but in his glory days in Porland they were known for their offense:

1989-90 - 47.3% 59 wins 107.0 ppg, 6.0 point differential
1990-91- 48.5% 63 wins 109.5 ppg, 8.7 point differential
1991-92 47.3% 57 wins 107.9 ppg, 7.0 point differential

It seems odd that Adelman's teams in Portland were so poor on defense and now are so good, but guys can change.

 

[nowagimp]

Porter has become a big advocate of defense, but in his glory days in Porland they were known for their offense:

1989-90 - 47.3% 59 wins 107.0 ppg, 6.0 point differential
1990-91- 48.5% 63 wins 109.5 ppg, 8.7 point differential
1991-92 47.3% 57 wins 107.9 ppg, 7.0 point differential

It seems odd that Adelman's teams in Portland were so poor on defense and now are so good, but guys can change.

1) Porters blazers of that era were stacked, just stacked, I dont know if it had anything to do with strategy of coaching. When you have clyde drexler, terry porter, jerome kersey, cliff robinson, buck williams, danny ainge, walter davis and drazen petrovic on your team it is offensively stacked to the gills. Add in Kevin Duckworth and they were a legitimate 9 deep in quality talent. And with drexler, buck williams, cliffy, porter, and kersey they could play some tough D as well. With personnel like that ANY coach could have good offense and defense. Suns fans are all jacked about matt barnes defense being good? How about drexler, Buck Williams and porter on your starting unit? These guys were outstanding physical defenders. Coaches get some credit, but addelman went from the kings to the rockets recently and suddenly his team was stellar on defense. Well, the personnel on the rockets are much better defenders than the suns(or kings), and I suspect jeff van gundy has alot more to do with the rockets good defense than addelman. If porter gets the suns into top 5 NBA in FG defense without seriously degrading the offense, he has done a stellar job.

 

[Irish]

Coaches are only as good as the guys they are working with. Back in the 90's Don Nelsoon was hiired by the Knicks (1995-96) and it was a disaster. He was fired mid season with a record of 34-25 and the season was finished with Jeff Van Gundy. Nelson couldn't get the slow, pounding Knicks to buy into his style and they just revolted.

So far I've seen no evidence that the Suns players are anything but supportive f what Porter is doing. That could change if things don't go well, but it sounds like they believe in his hard nosed style.