Run for Your Life

[Harry]

A number of threads have been suggesting that one draft choice (mostly a first round WR) or another would cause Murray to have to run for his life. Typically these observations suggest the O-line as the cause of the running. Of course, in part they are correct. Especially early on the line played poorly. That said, there were many reasons Murray got plenty of mileage on his cleats. I’ve was asked why I didn’t join in on the rate KK thread. I was working on a broader piece. One part of it deals with handling a blitz. The Cards had no plan. I didn’t see a hot read all year. I guess that’s not part of KK’s revolutionary new offense. In most cases this meant Murray had to run for his life whenever he was blitzed. The O-Line, especially late in the season, did a good job of picking up stunts, but asking 5 guys to block 7 is tough.

Murray’s Big-12 success apparently did not require reading defenses. The result is he had trouble knowing where the pressure would come from and where his single coverage would be. The latter knowledge would have enabled him to get rid of the ball sooner. Without it he was on the run.

In fact, Murray also displayed a reluctance to sacrifice a play and get rid of the ball. That caused more running around and more sacks. That issue did get better. Also early in the season there seemed a reluctance to call intentional Murray runs. When this changed teams couldn’t rush as aggressively for fear of they would let Murray loose in the secondary, so unintentional running decreased.

I think this group has a better argument if they’re chasing a right tackle. Wirfs is a solid option on that side. Still, rookie tackles allow sacks. If your thinking long term he’s especially appealing. That said while he would be an upgrade at RT, he is a poor run blocker who rarely if ever will make a second level block. He does not block well on the run, so he can’t be an asset in any pulling play designs. Moving him to LT is more problematic.

The other guys, Wills & Thomas, are better LT prospects. Again long term either may be an upgrade. However, consider that Humphries did clearly understand his number one job was protecting Murray. Neither of the two quality draft options are likely to be as successful at that in 2020. If you want to look 2 years down the road, either of these 2 guys could develop into better LTs than Humphries. If you’re interested, the 2021 draft looks to be solid for OTs also but again they are typically 2 year projects.

Finally I think it’s arguable that the rapport Murray has with Lamb is rare. It may well give Murray the outlet he needs to be on the run less. My point is getting a rookie tackle is only a small part of improving the offense and I’m not convinced it would have more impact than getting a number one receiver.

 

[Cardiac]

I've been pounding the podium for trench players for ever and now you have me thinking WR is the way to go. What if Lamb goes before us do you go for Jeudy?

 

[Cardsfaninlouky]

A number of threads have been suggesting that one draft choice (mostly a first round WR) or another would cause Murray to have to run for his life. Typically these observations suggest the O-line as the cause of the running. Of course, in part they are correct. Especially early on the line played poorly. That said, there were many reasons Murray got plenty of mileage on his cleats. I’ve was asked why I didn’t join in on the rate KK thread. I was working on a broader piece. One part of it deals with handling a blitz. The Cards had no plan. I didn’t see a hot read all year. I guess that’s not part of KK’s revolutionary new offense. In most cases this meant Murray had to run for his life whenever he was blitzed. The O-Line, especially late in the season, did a good job of picking up stunts, but asking 5 guys to block 7 is tough.

Murray’s Big-12 success apparently did not require reading defenses. The result is he had trouble knowing where the pressure would come from and where his single coverage would be. The latter knowledge would have enabled him to get rid of the ball sooner. Without it he was on the run.

In fact, Murray also displayed a reluctance to sacrifice a play and get rid of the ball. That caused more running around and more sacks. That issue did get better. Also early in the season there seemed a reluctance to call intentional Murray runs. When this changed teams couldn’t rush as aggressively for fear of they would let Murray loose in the secondary, so unintentional running decreased.

I think this group has a better argument if they’re chasing a right tackle. Wirfs is a solid option on that side. Still, rookie tackles allow sacks. If your thinking long term he’s especially appealing. That said while he would be an upgrade at RT, he is a poor run blocker who rarely if ever will make a second level block. He does not block well on the run, so he can’t be an asset in any pulling play designs. Moving him to LT is more problematic.

The other guys, Wills & Thomas, are better LT prospects. Again long term either may be an upgrade. However, consider that Humphries did clearly understand his number one job was protecting Murray. Neither of the two quality draft options are likely to be as successful at that in 2020. If you want to look 2 years down the road, either of these 2 guys could develop into better LTs than Humphries. If you’re interested, the 2021 draft looks to be solid for OTs also but again they are typically 2 year projects.

Finally I think it’s arguable that the rapport Murray has with Lamb is rare. It may well give Murray the outlet he needs to be on the run less. My point is getting a rookie tackle is only a small part of improving the offense and I’m not convinced it would have more impact than getting a number one receiver.

I did see one hot read during one game. I think it was against the 49ers? Not 100% sure which team. Isabella was running a go route on the left, outside. If a blitz came (it did) he was supposed to turn around & catch a back shoulder pass for the hot read? Murray threw the ball exactly where it was supposed to be, Isabella didn't turn around. It either sailed behind him or hit him in the back. Can't remember which? I have to disagree with you on Thomas. He has very quick footwork & doesn't get beat too often. I've seen him get away with holding some in college but he is going to be special imo. I just don't know which tackle position he would play for us though? If we resign Humphries that is? He started his career at Georgia on the right side, moved to the left his sophomore yr I believe?

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Harry thank you for all your contributions to this board

 

[WildBB]

Great analysis. Murray did get much better at getting rid of balls after mid season or so.

 

[Solar7]

@Harry, I'm sure I might be the target of the "run for your life" concept presented... but this is a great writeup. As far as I know from your posts, you've coached, you've scouted, and have scouting connections. So, I'll admit I might be wrong.

Wirfs would be a great pick to lock down RT. Kyler & Lamb is tantalizing. But the best teams in this league seem to be able to block for their QBs and RBs. I just can't feel comfortable watching Kyler peel out in a panic every time the ball is snapped. It's hurting his footwork, he's trying to extend plays... he's skittish back there. I think we look at the numbers and try to feel okay about it, but the truth is, this line is bad.

Things can change in free agency.

 

[juza76]

@Harry, I'm sure I might be the target of the "run for your life" concept presented... but this is a great writeup. As far as I know from your posts, you've coached, you've scouted, and have scouting connections. So, I'll admit I might be wrong.

Wirfs would be a great pick to lock down RT. Kyler & Lamb is tantalizing. But the best teams in this league seem to be able to block for their QBs and RBs. I just can't feel comfortable watching Kyler peel out in a panic every time the ball is snapped. It's hurting his footwork, he's trying to extend plays... he's skittish back there. I think we look at the numbers and try to feel okay about it, but the truth is, this line is bad.

Things can change in free agency.

Which players do u suggest can fit kk scheme in the free agency?

 

[GatorAZ]

@Harry, I'm sure I might be the target of the "run for your life" concept presented... but this is a great writeup. As far as I know from your posts, you've coached, you've scouted, and have scouting connections. So, I'll admit I might be wrong.

Wirfs would be a great pick to lock down RT. Kyler & Lamb is tantalizing. But the best teams in this league seem to be able to block for their QBs and RBs. I just can't feel comfortable watching Kyler peel out in a panic every time the ball is snapped. It's hurting his footwork, he's trying to extend plays... he's skittish back there. I think we look at the numbers and try to feel okay about it, but the truth is, this line is bad.

Things can change in free agency.

My fear is we go the Seattle route of ignoring the OL because our QB is mobile. We need young talent in the worst way up front.

 

[Krangodnzr]

The biggest question the Cardinals, and only the Cardinals can answer:

Are they comfortable with the development of the 4 young receivers on the roster already?

If they are and they think that one or more will take the leap, then I think Wirfs is the answer.

 

[football karma]

Wills played RT at Alabama, and, his rep is as a very good run blocker

i get that any rookie is going to take time, but having Justin Murray around helps

 

[Solar7]

Which players do u suggest can fit kk scheme in the free agency?

At WR? I think Green can do anything. At tackle? Get me Conklin.

I don't like him long term, but Robby Anderson could fit. I know we don't like him as a person... but we have to figure out some plan.

 

[Solar7]

The biggest question the Cardinals, and only the Cardinals can answer:

Are they comfortable with the development of the 4 young receivers on the roster already?

If they are and they think that one or more will take the leap, then I think Wirfs is the answer.

Man, I don't even think that's the question. It's "can we take the next step with a young WR who puts up 700 or so yards, and where do we get him the snaps?"

I don't think any of the four guys take a leap, and I'm still not drafting Jeudy or Lamb.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Man, I don't even think that's the question. It's "can we take the next step with a young WR who puts up 700 or so yards, and where do we get him the snaps?"

I don't think any of the four guys take a leap, and I'm still not drafting Jeudy or Lamb.

If you think that and you dont want to draft a receiver, you are insane

 

[Solar7]

If you think that and you dont want to draft a receiver, you are insane

Call me insane all you want, but I envision a WR room full of kids who have no clue what they're doing and are all mediocre players. Kirk's good, but not capable of doing what we need on the outside. If Isabella blooms, I'll be shocked. The other two are just guys until proven otherwise.

Do we solve that by bringing in another rookie? A bunch of guys stumbling around trying to figure it out? Fitz is around, but having a corps behind him of kids with a second year QB throwing to them just doesn't feel right in my gut. I can't wait until CeeDee Lamb shows he's not big enough to play on the outside and gets made a fool of when he isn't schemed into 6-7 yards of separation on a bad defense.

Gonna keep caveating - this is nothing like how I felt last year about guys. I think Lamb and Jeudy are going to be very good players over time. I don't think they're the solution to our current problem.

 

[BritCard]

A number of threads have been suggesting that one draft choice (mostly a first round WR) or another would cause Murray to have to run for his life. Typically these observations suggest the O-line as the cause of the running. Of course, in part they are correct. Especially early on the line played poorly. That said, there were many reasons Murray got plenty of mileage on his cleats. I’ve was asked why I didn’t join in on the rate KK thread. I was working on a broader piece. One part of it deals with handling a blitz. The Cards had no plan. I didn’t see a hot read all year. I guess that’s not part of KK’s revolutionary new offense. In most cases this meant Murray had to run for his life whenever he was blitzed. The O-Line, especially late in the season, did a good job of picking up stunts, but asking 5 guys to block 7 is tough.

Murray’s Big-12 success apparently did not require reading defenses. The result is he had trouble knowing where the pressure would come from and where his single coverage would be. The latter knowledge would have enabled him to get rid of the ball sooner. Without it he was on the run.

In fact, Murray also displayed a reluctance to sacrifice a play and get rid of the ball. That caused more running around and more sacks. That issue did get better. Also early in the season there seemed a reluctance to call intentional Murray runs. When this changed teams couldn’t rush as aggressively for fear of they would let Murray loose in the secondary, so unintentional running decreased.

I think this group has a better argument if they’re chasing a right tackle. Wirfs is a solid option on that side. Still, rookie tackles allow sacks. If your thinking long term he’s especially appealing. That said while he would be an upgrade at RT, he is a poor run blocker who rarely if ever will make a second level block. He does not block well on the run, so he can’t be an asset in any pulling play designs. Moving him to LT is more problematic.

The other guys, Wills & Thomas, are better LT prospects. Again long term either may be an upgrade. However, consider that Humphries did clearly understand his number one job was protecting Murray. Neither of the two quality draft options are likely to be as successful at that in 2020. If you want to look 2 years down the road, either of these 2 guys could develop into better LTs than Humphries. If you’re interested, the 2021 draft looks to be solid for OTs also but again they are typically 2 year projects.

Finally I think it’s arguable that the rapport Murray has with Lamb is rare. It may well give Murray the outlet he needs to be on the run less. My point is getting a rookie tackle is only a small part of improving the offense and I’m not convinced it would have more impact than getting a number one receiver.

I agree with all the first part regarding Kyler, blitzes, hot reads etc however rookie WR's can take just as long if not longer to develop than tackles. I think Lamb is one of the least prepared for the NFL. He makes very few NFL catches and plays against no NFL starter caliber defenders except Gladney. When he played TCU and Gladney this year he had 2 catches for 16 yards.

I look at it this way. I wouldn't expect a rookie tackle (left or right) to cost us wins. 3-4 extra sacks over a season isn't going to effect results too much. Our defense however cost us 4-5 wins this year. If we can save resources of offense to spend on defense that makes a bigger difference in the win column for me.

We already spent $11m on Fitz, they want to extend Hump and AQ so that's another $18-$19m. They want to extend Drake so another $6m. That's $36m on resigning offensive players at least. Then we want to use our premium pick on a WR, which would likely mean using our 2nd rounder on an OT. That's all the resources on offense.

We need to make a compromise somewhere. We just don't have the money to do all these things. If we resign Hump then the #8 has to be a defensive stud. If we don't it has to be an OT. I can't see any scenario where WR is smart at #8 considering how limited we are going to be in cap space with all these offensive signings.

 

[Chopper0080]

I agree with all the first part regarding Kyler, blitzes, hot reads etc however rookie WR's can take just as long if not longer to develop than tackles. I think Lamb is one of the least prepared for the NFL. He makes very few NFL catches and plays against no NFL starter caliber defenders except Gladney. When he played TCU and Gladney this year he had 2 catches for 16 yards.

I look at it this way. I wouldn't expect a rookie tackle (left or right) to cost us wins. 3-4 extra sacks over a season isn't going to effect results too much. Our defense however cost us 4-5 wins this year. If we can save resources of offense to spend on defense that makes a bigger difference in the win column for me.

We already spent $11m on Fitz, they want to extend Hump and AQ so that's another $18-$19m. They want to extend Drake so another $6m. That's $36m on resigning offensive players at least. Then we want to use our premium pick on a WR, which would likely mean using our 2nd rounder on an OT. That's all the resources on offense.

We need to make a compromise somewhere. We just don't have the money to do all these things. If we resign Hump then the #8 has to be a defensive stud. If we don't it has to be an OT. I can't see any scenario where WR is smart at #8 considering how limited we are going to be in cap space with all these offensive signings.

I think you are underselling how the cap can be manipulated to make things fit. You could re-sign the players you referenced, and easily fit two guys like Calais Campbell and Dante Fowler and fit it under the cap.

 

[wa52lz]

I think you are underselling how the cap can be manipulated to make things fit. You could re-sign the players you referenced, and easily fit two guys like Calais Campbell and Dante Fowler and fit it under the cap.

To this point, couldn't a "2nd year" be added to Fitz's deal and his $11 million salary converted to bonus, if we need an addition $5 million in cap space?

 

[BritCard]

I think you are underselling how the cap can be manipulated to make things fit. You could re-sign the players you referenced, and easily fit two guys like Calais Campbell and Dante Fowler and fit it under the cap.

You could probably do that without any backloading. The problem is, 2 players isn't nearly enough. We need a starting linebacker, another decent rotational D linemen, some vet safety depth, some vet CB depth or possibly a starting CB depending on how Alfords leg has healed, vet OLB depth. We need a ton of defensive players, but more importantly better quality players.

As things stand (and what fans are calling for) the bulk of the cap space and the primo draft picks look to be spent on offense when the defense has been dire.

 

[Finito]

Great analysis. Murray did get much better at getting rid of balls after mid season or so.

Yeah he got much better as the year went on. I chalk it up to a rookie trying to be Superman and do to much.

but he improved dramatically as the season went on in that area

 

[JeffGollin]

Paraphrasing KK - Cards want to draft the player whose presence would improve the roster more than any other available draftee.

In other words - if we already have one or more very talented receivers on our roster, it would be very difficult for another draffted receiver - however good - to improve our roster over what we already have.

Taking a step back and scanning our roster, my main source of frustration is our not having enough pass coverage people to stop our opponents from converting too many third downs (whether it's a CB, S or CB doesn't matter so long as he can tangibly improve our 3rd down batting average).

Regardless of position, we should target physical freaks who are legendary for being smart and motivated. (I get the feeling that our division rivals are beating us in that dept).

 

[Krangodnzr]

Call me insane all you want, but I envision a WR room full of kids who have no clue what they're doing and are all mediocre players. Kirk's good, but not capable of doing what we need on the outside. If Isabella blooms, I'll be shocked. The other two are just guys until proven otherwise.

Do we solve that by bringing in another rookie? A bunch of guys stumbling around trying to figure it out? Fitz is around, but having a corps behind him of kids with a second year QB throwing to them just doesn't feel right in my gut. I can't wait until CeeDee Lamb shows he's not big enough to play on the outside and gets made a fool of when he isn't schemed into 6-7 yards of separation on a bad defense.

Gonna keep caveating - this is nothing like how I felt last year about guys. I think Lamb and Jeudy are going to be very good players over time. I don't think they're the solution to our current problem.

If you think Jeudy and Lamb are going to be very good players over time, then you are absolutely arguing that we should take one of them, especially with your pessimism over the current state of the wide receivers already on the roster. You do realize that a majority of rookies will need some time right?

The only other option is to throw a buttload of money at Amari Cooper, and that's probably an even worse idea.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I agree with all the first part regarding Kyler, blitzes, hot reads etc however rookie WR's can take just as long if not longer to develop than tackles. I think Lamb is one of the least prepared for the NFL. He makes very few NFL catches and plays against no NFL starter caliber defenders except Gladney. When he played TCU and Gladney this year he had 2 catches for 16 yards.

I look at it this way. I wouldn't expect a rookie tackle (left or right) to cost us wins. 3-4 extra sacks over a season isn't going to effect results too much. Our defense however cost us 4-5 wins this year. If we can save resources of offense to spend on defense that makes a bigger difference in the win column for me.

We already spent $11m on Fitz, they want to extend Hump and AQ so that's another $18-$19m. They want to extend Drake so another $6m. That's $36m on resigning offensive players at least. Then we want to use our premium pick on a WR, which would likely mean using our 2nd rounder on an OT. That's all the resources on offense.

We need to make a compromise somewhere. We just don't have the money to do all these things. If we resign Hump then the #8 has to be a defensive stud. If we don't it has to be an OT. I can't see any scenario where WR is smart at #8 considering how limited we are going to be in cap space with all these offensive signings.

It's not just sacks that a rookie tackle will allow, it's also that they usually aren't physically developed enough to play in the NFL their first season. That means they usually SUCK run blocking as well. There are guys that come in and are good off the bat, but that's usually not the case.

Lamb makes few NFL catches? Watch his tape, he makes quite a few contested catches. I'd argue you see a whole lot less NFL catches from Jeudy, who basically gets open with speed and routes but you rarely see him make contested catches against CBs.

 

[BritCard]

It's not just sacks that a rookie tackle will allow, it's also that they usually aren't physically developed enough to play in the NFL their first season. That means they usually SUCK run blocking as well. There are guys that come in and are good off the bat, but that's usually not the case.

Lamb makes few NFL catches? Watch his tape, he makes quite a few contested catches. I'd argue you see a whole lot less NFL catches from Jeudy, who basically gets open with speed and routes but you rarely see him make contested catches against CBs.

I've watched a bunch of Lamb. He doesn't do it for me and he has a fraction of the NFL catches I'd like to see from a top 20 pick.

Regarding your comments on tackles physical development all 3 top tackles are huge, powerful dudes. I wouldn't be surprised if all 3 were an upgrade in that department.

 

[Solar7]

If you think Jeudy and Lamb are going to be very good players over time, then you are absolutely arguing that we should take one of them, especially with your pessimism over the current state of the wide receivers already on the roster. You do realize that a majority of rookies will need some time right?

The only other option is to throw a buttload of money at Amari Cooper, and that's probably an even worse idea.

I've already stated I like A.J. Green. And no, I don't think Lamb or Jeudy "over time" are worth it. Unlike others, I think this is a make or break year for a Keim and KK, and so 600 yards or so from one of these guys means our offense pretty much stays the same as last year, while we will have ignored a major hole elsewhere.

A WR pick is a luxury where we stand today, with 8 starters or so needed. I'll certainly revisit my thoughts on WR if we've filled LT, RT, C, DE x2, OLB, ILB, and RB by the time the draft is coming around. Or at least 6-7 of the 8 with the notion that the remaining starters will be addressed in the top 3 rounds of the draft.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I've already stated I like A.J. Green. And no, I don't think Lamb or Jeudy "over time" are worth it. Unlike others, I think this is a make or break year for a Keim and KK, and so 600 yards or so from one of these guys means our offense pretty much stays the same as last year, while we will have ignored a major hole elsewhere.

A WR pick is a luxury where we stand today, with 8 starters or so needed. I'll certainly revisit my thoughts on WR if we've filled LT, RT, C, DE x2, OLB, ILB, and RB by the time the draft is coming around. Or at least 6-7 of the 8 with the notion that the remaining starters will be addressed in the top 3 rounds of the draft.

AJ Green might be done. He hasn't played in a long time and receivers generally go from 80 catches a year to struggling to get 20 catches around his age.

Maybe you and Keim have some mind meld going on, because signing AJ Green would be the most Keimian thing ever LOL