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Dr. Jones
Has No Time For Love
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Me too brother. I was screaming DeCastro.
Safest positions to draft in round 1
- Thread starter Dr. Jones
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PACardsFan
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True, but if WE drafted him, he would have been a bust. When you haven't had a decent OL coach since Jim Hanifan, it doesn't matter who you draft. I think we now have a legit OL coach & our future OL picks will pan out much better for as long as he's with us.
CardNots
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Drum pounding?
I would not argue most of those players failed to reach expectations.
I would argue that those picks aren’t only on the GM.
With all the factors impacting draft picks we can only speculate as you have already done.
PACardsFan
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We can sit here and blame the GM for picks that haven’t necessarily met expectations. And that’s fair. I loved BA as an offensive genius, but with the exception of Bowles, his staff was horrible at player development. At some point in time, coaches have to be held responsible when players that are drafted with potential don’t pan out.
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GatorAZ
feed hopkins
That says more about Wilson than Lockett.
Chopper0080
2021 - Prove It
Yeah...I don't really want to take a WR in the top 10.
Solar7
Go Suns
I've been wary of taking one of these top WRs. I do think Kyler has a need for a better #1, but I'd hate to end up drafting a John Ross or Kevin White and have a full receiving room of young guys who aren't any good.
I'd prefer someone proven.
I'd prefer someone proven.
Ummmm......
IIRC
Charles Rogers
Darrius Heyward Bey
Justin Blackmon
Cordarelle Patterson
Marqise Lee
Nelson Agholor
etc.
P S Michael Floyd?????
TJ
Frank Kaminsky is my Hero.
Agree and I'm sure the list is much, much longer (add Bryant Johnson to this list, too). Without doing research, I feel like drafting a WR early is a risky proposition. You may get a Fitz or a Julio Jones, but I feel like that's an exception.
DVontel
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Yea, I’m still on the Wirfs bandwagon.
I like this analysis a lot better than the Pro Bowl comparison. It deals with production and not subjective and on top of that fan selection of pro bowlers. To compare a successful draft selection based on fans voting for pro bowl positions is akin to selecting which coffee you like best.
DVontel
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Imagine the work Kugler would do with a stud OL like Wirfs.
BACH
Superbowl, Homeboy!
There are Two criterias here.
1. Safest position to Pick. Meaning highest probability For the Pick to pan out.
2. Supply of players able to succeed at the NFL level. At some positions it is easy to find a serviceable player (ILB, RB and S), But at other positions there Seem to be a shortage og quality players (QB, Edge, OT and CB).
I Think it would be a mistake to draft a WR based on logic. We flooded the position last year and other positions have higher priority based the Two criterias Above. QB is out. So the only options would be OT, Egde Or an elite CB. That’s based on logic and not on the scouts. If there is a once a generation player at Any position at #8, then it would be the pick
1. Safest position to Pick. Meaning highest probability For the Pick to pan out.
2. Supply of players able to succeed at the NFL level. At some positions it is easy to find a serviceable player (ILB, RB and S), But at other positions there Seem to be a shortage og quality players (QB, Edge, OT and CB).
I Think it would be a mistake to draft a WR based on logic. We flooded the position last year and other positions have higher priority based the Two criterias Above. QB is out. So the only options would be OT, Egde Or an elite CB. That’s based on logic and not on the scouts. If there is a once a generation player at Any position at #8, then it would be the pick
JeffGollin
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According to BPA theory - if the #8th best* player happens to be a WR, you take him.
* "Best" may take on a different BPA definition - It could mean "one of 4 players ranked closely" or (to paraphrase KK) - "player who adds most to making our team better."
Whatever the case, I'd be leery of passing up a future All Pro player to fill a position need.
DVontel
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R1 - Wirfs(RT)
R2 - Curtis Weaver(OLB)
R3 - Quartney Davis(WR)
R4 - Justin Strnad(ILB)
R6 - Josiah Deguara(TE)
R7 - Darius Anderson(RB)
Would be my dream mock atm.
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Harry
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I’ve read several studies over the years and frankly they’re a little deceptive. Things not cover would include concerns like were they playing the drafted position in college. OTs often end up as guards. CBs turn into safeties. DEs move to OLB. 3-4 guys are ask to be 4-3 stars.
I’d be more interested in seeing how long they played. Top picks go to the worst teams. What players were impacted by injury? Even nagging injuries could compromise speed players, like maybe Kirk this season. Sometimes they just end up with lousy coaches. The skilled players often got larger salaries and little counseling on how to handle it.
Frankly I don’t think you can play the odds in scouting. I hear BPA, but what does it mean? If the BPA is a QB, time to trade. Suppose a WR is the BPA in 3 consecutive rounds? Suppose the BPA is best suited for a 4-3 and your team plays a 3-4? I’ve seen this confusion mess up quite a few careers. Is Reddick an OLB?
Since the onset of the Combine, athletes have moved up and skilled players moved down. Some GMs get too enamored of the Combine numbers.
My point is so much of success depends on the quality of scouting, an astute GM and intelligent coaching. Historical probabilities shouldn’t be ignored. However, trust your people or get new people.
football karma
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if you apply the above probabilities to the last four years of Keim drafting at the WR position -- how many NFL starters would you expect?
C. Williams .25
Kirk .49
Isabella .49
Butler .12
k. Johnson .09
totals 1.44
suggests if Keim drafted at NFL average success, those picks should produce at least 1 NFL WR Starter, and maybe 2
I count Kirk as a success, so he got his 1. No idea on if there is a 2nd in that group.
So -- on WR Keim is below average.
not that you didnt already think that
Chopper0080
2021 - Prove It
I don't believe the 8th best player in the draft is a WR...that is why I don't want to take one.
GatorAZ
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Longterm a bookend RT or game wrecking DT gives us the highest ceiling but both those positions take time to develop due to the physicality difference from college... Simmons’ athletic gifts matched with our defensive flaws might make us better right away... We had run-of-the-mill guys scoring on us all year that wouldn’t overwhelm him.
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Dr. Jones
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It might be a good idea to bump this as we are nearing the draft.....
Keims biggest first round blunders:
OG - Cooper
DT - Nkemdiche
LB - Reddick
All supposedly the safer of the positions to pick according to this article
I loved the Cooper pick. A plug and play 10 year all pro. Considered a super safe pick
I don’t blame them at for for Nkemdiche. Remember he was picked at the back of the 1st round he was the 29th pick. People need to stop acting like this dude was a top ten pick. I mean I total get the pick boom or bust guy. The guy I wanted was Cam Erving the C out of FSU and god he was horrible.
Reddick? Yeah no excuse for that pick at all.
cardsfanmd
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There are busts at every position. There are safe players though.
Solar7
Go Suns
Yeah, it's super hard to blame them for Nkemdiche. It was a super talented roster, the dude had fallen, it seemed like a no-brainer pick at the time, given that we weren't in a position of major need, and if he panned out, he was the most likely to be a true force. It was a sensible time to take a risk.
Cooper is a bit of a unique situation too. If he doesn't break his leg, is the narrative different? Everyone else we would have taken sucked too, so...
Reddick was a panic pick. I was very disappointed.
I still think Redick is salvageable. Having non-trash at LB this year will help a lot.
CBS guy had us trading 8 and 202 for 14, 45, and 117. I like that transaction a lot. He had us going w/Henderson which is also a quietly great pick imo. Peterson might be gone soon. Alford is injured/bad. Lol Murphy. Everyone else sucks at coverage in the secondary (yes, I still haven’t forgiven Budda for pussying our on that Kittle TD).
CBS guy had us trading 8 and 202 for 14, 45, and 117. I like that transaction a lot. He had us going w/Henderson which is also a quietly great pick imo. Peterson might be gone soon. Alford is injured/bad. Lol Murphy. Everyone else sucks at coverage in the secondary (yes, I still haven’t forgiven Budda for pussying our on that Kittle TD).
