sending overbay

[82CardsGrad]

So....the statement "you never make the last out at home plate" is wrong. You admit here that sometimes it is worth the risk. This is what I said, and you told me I was wrong. I just want you to admit I'm not and that you were. Cause you are.

The actual % of the time I would send the runner is mathematically, infinitesimally small... so, no. Since you're a man of numbers, I'm sure you can appreciate that for all intents and purposes then, my statement still stands.

 

[DWKB]

The actual % of the time I would send the runner is mathematically, infinitesimally small... so, no. Since you're a man of numbers, I'm sure you can appreciate that for all intents and purposes then, my statement still stands.

You would make a very conservative manager then and probably leave a lot of runs on the bases. I assume you think the SB is a waste as well?

 

[82CardsGrad]

You would make a very conservative manager then and probably leave a lot of runs on the bases. I assume you think the SB is a waste as well?

Not at all! If you have the right runner, right pitch count, right game situations (# of outs, batter at the plate and place in order, up or down in the game, early or later in the game, etc...) the stolen base is a lost and potentially effective art!

One other point I failed to mention about making the last out at home...I believe another important factor to be considered is: Is the runner attempting to score tagging up from 3rd base, or, is he attempting to score from second base or first base on a ball hit down the line or into the gap.
Tagging up allows the coach more time to examine the chances for success (How deep was the ball hit? Was it a ball the outfielder needed to track down or camp under?)...
Anyway - just more factors that would need to be weighed, while at the same time, tossing out the probability %'s...

 

[DWKB]

Not at all! If you have the right runner, right pitch count, right game situations (# of outs, batter at the plate and place in order, up or down in the game, early or later in the game, etc...) the stolen base is a lost and potentially effective art!

One other point I failed to mention about making the last out at home...I believe another important factor to be considered is: Is the runner attempting to score tagging up from 3rd base, or, is he attempting to score from second base or first base on a ball hit down the line or into the gap.
Tagging up allows the coach more time to examine the chances for success (How deep was the ball hit? Was it a ball the outfielder needed to track down or camp under?)...
Anyway - just more factors that would need to be weighed, while at the same time, tossing out the probability %'s...

You inconsistency is baffling (I bet you don't even see it as inconsistent ).

If your % of chances taken to score from 3B is so small that it is never, then there is no way you would ever steal a base or else you'd be terribly inconsistent with your managing philosophy. There is even less advantage to be had going from 1B to 2B with 2 outs than there is going from 3B to Home with 2 outs.

Of course I'd really like it if others shared their opinion in this thread about this. I have no hope of you changing your position on something, especially if you've been corrected by me.

 

[82CardsGrad]

You inconsistency is baffling (I bet you don't even see it as inconsistent ).

If your % of chances taken to score from 3B is so small that it is never, then there is no way you would ever steal a base or else you'd be terribly inconsistent with your managing philosophy. There is even less advantage to be had going from 1B to 2B with 2 outs than there is going from 3B to Home with 2 outs.

Of course I'd really like it if others shared their opinion in this thread about this. I have no hope of you changing your position on something, especially if you've been corrected by me.

You never mentioned that scenario in your previous post... But, to further frustrate you, I'll offer this:

I am a huge proponent of the stolen base. Again, given the proper game situations I noted above, I'm all for it.
However, if you are acutely interested in the topic of stealing with 2 outs, then the specific dynamics become all the more important to consider.
Generally speaking, those conditions would need to be hugely lined up in a way that would allow me to feel good about attempting a steal with 2 outs. They could include, but might not be limited to: speedy runner, favorable pitch-count (0-2, 1-2: where the pitcher is more likely to throw an off-speed pitch and one that is well off the plate, forcing the catcher to move to make the catch.), behind late in the game and you have a good contact hitter at the plate, ahead early in the game, etc...

Hope that doesn't cause you to crush your keyboard DWKB!

 

[DWKB]

You never mentioned that scenario in your previous post... But, to further frustrate you, I'll offer this:

I am a huge proponent of the stolen base. Again, given the proper game situations I noted above, I'm all for it.
However, if you are acutely interested in the topic of stealing with 2 outs, then the specific dynamics become all the more important to consider.
Generally speaking, those conditions would need to be hugely lined up in a way that would allow me to feel good about attempting a steal with 2 outs. They could include, but might not be limited to: speedy runner, favorable pitch-count (0-2, 1-2: where the pitcher is more likely to throw an off-speed pitch and one that is well off the plate, forcing the catcher to move to make the catch.), behind late in the game and you have a good contact hitter at the plate, ahead early in the game, etc...

Hope that doesn't cause you to crush your keyboard DWKB!

I feel like you're getting too caught up in the minutiae here. These situations can all be evaluated on their risk/reward scenarios.

SB attempt of 2B with 2 outs:

Risk: Inning over
Reward: Runner now in "Scoring Position".

Sending Runner Home from 3B with 2 outs:

Risk: Inning over
Reward: Run Scored

The risk is the same, the inning is over if you fail. The rewards are greatly different though. A Run Scored is worth much more than advancing a runner into Scoring Position, right?

So, by default, you should be more conservative in your SB attempts than in your sending a runner home from 3B with 2 outs because your reward is much less on the SB than on the sending home with the same amount of risk. The minutiae of the runner and batter etc will slide that chance of success and influence your decision, but the end goals dictate that, in general, you should try to score more often than you try to steal.

BTW, MLB agrees with me from 2000-2006 data. With a runner on 2B and a single, MLB sent the runner home most often with 2 outs.

 

[82CardsGrad]

I feel like you're getting too caught up in the minutiae here. These situations can all be evaluated on their risk/reward scenarios.

SB attempt of 2B with 2 outs:

Risk: Inning over
Reward: Runner now in "Scoring Position".

Sending Runner Home from 3B with 2 outs:

Risk: Inning over
Reward: Run Scored

The risk is the same, the inning is over if you fail. The rewards are greatly different though. A Run Scored is worth much more than advancing a runner into Scoring Position, right?

So, by default, you should be more conservative in your SB attempts than in your sending a runner home from 3B with 2 outs because your reward is much less on the SB than on the sending home with the same amount of risk. The minutiae of the runner and batter etc will slide that chance of success and influence your decision, but the end goals dictate that, in general, you should try to score more often than you try to steal.

BTW, MLB agrees with me from 2000-2006 data. With a runner on 2B and a single, MLB sent the runner home most often with 2 outs.

I just refuse to accept that you can have this discussion without examining all of the potential factors that go into the decision-making process.

With regard to the bolded statement, that may be true - however, I would love to see the specifics behind that data (wherever you dug it up).

 

[DWKB]

I just refuse to accept that you can have this discussion without examining all of the potential factors that go into the decision-making process.

With regard to the bolded statement, that may be true - however, I would love to see the specifics behind that data (wherever you dug it up).

Of course! I love sharing data. This website is a treasure trove of information BTW.

http://www.tangotiger.net/destmob.html

Single						
Runner on 2B						
						
Outs						
0						
		Batter				
	Runner	1b	2b	3b	Home	Out
	1b	 -- 	 -- 	 -- 	 -- 	 -- 
	2b	2.3%	 -- 	 -- 	 -- 	0.0%
	3b	48.6%	1.0%	 -- 	 -- 	0.3%
	Home	38.9%	5.3%	0.5%	0.0%	1.4%
	Out	1.0%	0.8%	 -- 	 -- 	0.0%
						
Outs						
1						
		Batter				
	Runner	1b	2b	3b	Home	Out
	1b	 -- 	 -- 	 -- 	 -- 	 -- 
	2b	2.0%	 -- 	 -- 	 -- 	 -- 
	3b	34.9%	0.9%	 -- 	 -- 	0.2%
	Home	48.9%	7.5%	0.7%	0.0%	1.8%
	Out	1.8%	1.2%	0.0%	 -- 	0.0%
						
Outs						
2						
		Batter				
	Runner	1b	2b	3b	Home	Out
	1b	 -- 	 -- 	 -- 	 -- 	 -- 
	2b	0.3%	 -- 	 -- 	 -- 	0.0%
	3b	15.9%	0.2%	 -- 	 -- 	0.0%
	Home	66.2%	9.4%	0.9%	0.0%	2.4%
	Out	4.5%	0.0%	 -- 	 -- 	 --

The way this reads is the runner ending situation is the y axis and the batter ending situation on the x axis, so for 0 outs, the runner scores 38.9% + 5.3% + 0.5% + 1.4% totaling 46.1% of the time. For 1 out the runner scores 58.9% of the time and for 2 outs, the runner scores 66.2% + 9.4% + 0.9% + 2.4% totaling 78.9% of the time.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Of course! I love sharing data. This website is a treasure trove of information BTW.

http://www.tangotiger.net/destmob.html

Single                        
Runner on 2B                        
 
Outs                        
0                        
        Batter                
    Runner    1b    2b    3b    Home    Out
    1b     --      --      --      --      -- 
    2b    2.3%     --      --      --     0.0%
    3b    48.6%    1.0%     --      --     0.3%
    Home    38.9%    5.3%    0.5%    0.0%    1.4%
    Out    1.0%    0.8%     --      --     0.0%
 
Outs                        
1                        
        Batter                
    Runner    1b    2b    3b    Home    Out
    1b     --      --      --      --      -- 
    2b    2.0%     --      --      --      -- 
    3b    34.9%    0.9%     --      --     0.2%
    Home    48.9%    7.5%    0.7%    0.0%    1.8%
    Out    1.8%    1.2%    0.0%     --     0.0%
 
Outs                        
2                        
        Batter                
    Runner    1b    2b    3b    Home    Out
    1b     --      --      --      --      -- 
    2b    0.3%     --      --      --     0.0%
    3b    15.9%    0.2%     --      --     0.0%
    Home    66.2%    9.4%    0.9%    0.0%    2.4%
    Out    4.5%    0.0%     --      --      --

The way this reads is the runner ending situation is the y axis and the batter ending situation on the x axis, so for 0 outs, the runner scores 38.9% + 5.3% + 0.5% + 1.4% totaling 46.1% of the time. For 1 out the runner scores 58.9% of the time and for 2 outs, the runner scores 66.2% + 9.4% + 0.9% + 2.4% totaling 78.9% of the time.

Ok... for the record, my comments were in the context of a batter hitting a single and a runner on 2nd. Which, per the stats, the runner would score 66% of the time with 2 outs. What this stat doesn't reveal, however, is the underlying specifics present when the runner successfully scored, such as: speed of runner, location of single - (right at the fielder, or, to his left or right). Further, this stat simply says that when the runner is sent, he scores 66% of the time. What it also fails reveal is the frequency that a runner is sent. I think it could be interesting to see just how often a runner is actually sent home with 2 outs. Could be quite high, or maybe not... but, again, IMHO - the actual game-time specifics are important and very relevant as, again - Overbay should not have been sent home.

 

[Gaddabout]

On that play I think I was more impressed with Overbay actually paying attention to the 3rd base coach. Older veterans generally tend to ignore base coaches when it comes to base running.

 

[DWKB]

Ok... for the record, my comments were in the context of a batter hitting a single and a runner on 2nd. Which, per the stats, the runner would score 66% of the time with 2 outs. What this stat doesn't reveal, however, is the underlying specifics present when the runner successfully scored, such as: speed of runner, location of single - (right at the fielder, or, to his left or right). Further, this stat simply says that when the runner is sent, he scores 66% of the time. What it also fails reveal is the frequency that a runner is sent. I think it could be interesting to see just how often a runner is actually sent home with 2 outs. Could be quite high, or maybe not... but, again, IMHO - the actual game-time specifics are important and very relevant as, again - Overbay should not have been sent home.

No, you've totally misunderstood what this is saying. First, the percentage is not how often the runner scores when he is sent, its the percentage of time the runner ends up at that location. Secondly, the 66% is only for the runner on 2B scoring and the batter ending up at 1B. The number beside that of 9.4% is the percentage of the runner scoring and the batter ending up at 2B. The total percentage of the runner scoring was 78.9% like I said in my post (did you not read it?).

This is not the percentage of time the runner is sent, it's the percentage of time he scores. The out category contains times the runner is sent and thrown out at the plate (among other outs), so the runner is sent with 2 outs probably more than 80% of the time.

Regardless of speed of runner and location of single, the runner scores 79% of the time and is most likely sent over 80% of the time. More than any other out situation. This is about the total opposite of your statement that you NEVER send the runner with 2 outs. Again, MLB agrees with me and disagrees with you. It's there in black and white.

At this point, it might be time to admit you're wrong and re-evaluated your baseball understanding in this situation.