Seriously... What are the odds?

[Lloydian]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

 

[CardsMath]

Hi Mulli:


I do not have a number off-hand, but I will try to look into it. I know at a minimum that we would need to lose out and Carolina would need to win out. Then we would need to make sure that we won the tie-breaker with Carolina, and that we catch the other teams that are also in the running. This may be more complicated because the tie-breaker (as I understand it) is based on the strength of schedule as calculated at the end of the year. Thus, in addition to calculating the odds that we have a record that is at least as bad as every other team, we would also need to calculate the odds that our strength of schedule at the end of the year is worse than any other team with an identical record as us. I am not sure offhand how many scenarious would get us there. For example, I believe that our strength of schedule is currently worse than Carolina (which would give us the tie breaker as of now), but I have not checked whether the tie breaker could change, for example if all of the teams that Carolina has played lose their remaining games and all of the teams that Arizona has played win their remaining games, etc. So, it may be more complicated. However, I will try to come up with a "ballpark" number (perhaps with even more assumptions than the playoff number).

 

[Mulli]

Hi Mulli:


I do not have a number off-hand, but I will try to look into it. I know at a minimum that we would need to lose out and Carolina would need to win out. Then we would need to make sure that we won the tie-breaker with Carolina, and that we catch the other teams that are also in the running. This may be more complicated because the tie-breaker (as I understand it) is based on the strength of schedule as calculated at the end of the year. Thus, in addition to calculating the odds that we have a record that is at least as bad as every other team, we would also need to calculate the odds that our strength of schedule at the end of the year is worse than any other team with an identical record as us. I am not sure offhand how many scenarious would get us there. For example, I believe that our strength of schedule is currently worse than Carolina (which would give us the tie breaker as of now), but I have not checked whether the tie breaker could change, for example if all of the teams that Carolina has played lose their remaining games and all of the teams that Arizona has played win their remaining games, etc. So, it may be more complicated. However, I will try to come up with a "ballpark" number (perhaps with even more assumptions than the playoff number).

Thanks.

 

[Brighteyes]

Question, did anyone whine when the Chargers made it at 8-8 or when the Browns won in 1985 at 8-8?

When the 8-8 Chargers made it, they were whining about the Cardinals.

For 4 playoff rounds, they whined about the Cardinals.

 

[Darkside]

but The Rams and the Seahawks equally suck and are very evenly matched at sucking.

My favorite line of this thread.

 

[THESMEL]

cards math, did you go to blue ridge? ,Most of the first 8 games you 1/2d, lean toward the better team being the one the Cards needs to win.

Except for the Cards winning out and The Niners beating the Rams the odds are in favor of everything but the tie.

But my hillbilly calculations and extensive work in mental health facilities,
both the Rams and the Seahawks evenly suck by all standard of sucking in the NFL.

Even the goose egg sucking standard set by the traveling teams and defunct teams prior to the NFL Charter in 1920,

0-0 goose eggs were not uncommon even after the 1920 charter but both these teams entered the NFL much later. that makes them suck even more.

In fact the 49ers entered the NFL before the Cardinals won the 1947 NFL Championship. but did not play until after te Cardinals lost the 1948 NFL championship.

both against philly, players shoveled the snow, and nobody seen the Philly TD in the blizzard. Cards changed to tennis shoes at half time cause it sucked that day too!

but this year they all suck, The Cards suck too

Thats why the odds are now about 100 to 1 instead of a 1/4 million to won!

Because it would be a major suck out, like the river CARD in poker.

but I aint given the chips back

AND THE NINERS SUCKED against the Chargers already tonight. off to a good start toward the impossible!

like the Dwarf on lord of the rings said. impossible odds- no chance at success- WHAT ARE WE WAITING FOR!

watch the games through the cracks in your fingers cause I think its going down to overtime against the Rams and the Seahawks, Its gonna suck!

 

[CardsMath]

Mulli:

I performed two simplified calculations of the probability of the Cardinals obtaining the #1 draft pick.

For the first calculation (a very optimistic calculation), I assumed that each team has a 50% chance of winning each game. I also assumed that the Cardinals would maintain the tie-breaker over every team (which I believe they currently have, based on a weaker strength of schedule, but this is subject to change), except for Denver. Denver’s strength of schedule was very close to the Cardinals, so I assumed that if we tied Denver we would have a 50% chance of winning the tie breaker.

For the second calculation (probably a more realistic calculation), I assumed that each of the bottom teams that we need to win has a 25% chance of winning each game, except when they play each other (e.g., AZ vs. Carolina).

Under the first approach, the odds were about 1 in 122. This assumes that every bad team comes to play at the end of the year (e.g. they are fighting for their jobs) and/or the good teams may rest their starters, etc.

However, under the second approach, the odds were worse than 1 in 10,000 (e.g., this is assuming that Carolina has very little chance to beat Pittsburgh, etc., etc.).

With all of these variables (and also given that the tie-breakers could also change, this makes it difficult to predict an exact probability at this point). The best that I can say right now is that if the bad teams suddenly play like average teams (and if we retain a low strength of schedule), the odds may be around 1 in 122. Otherwise, the odds are significantly worse.

 

[Cardiac]

Good stuff CardsMath. How new are you to the site? Have you been lurking for awhile or just discover asfn?

If brand new I can forgive you answering Mulli's question. If not then you should know he is just going to use this info to stir up another debate about trying to throw games for a better draft pick.

 

[Dr. Jones]

CardsMath is going to be very popular around here.

Welcome.

 

[CardsMath]

Hi Thesmel:

No, I did not go to Blue Ridge.

I kept the odds for the other games at 1/2 just for a baseline number, and to try to keep my biases out of the equation (e.g., I believe each of the games except for the tie has a good chance of occurring, although then again I pick the Cardinals to win every week in my football pool). While in some of the games the teams we need to win will be favored, in others it may work the other way. For example, the 49ers have seemed to have the Cardinals number the past few times. And, if SF is as bad as they looked yesterday, we have to somehow hope they can pull off a victory at Saint Louis next week.

In any event, I agree with your concept of overcoming the impossible odds. It would make for a great story if the Cardinals could do it. If everything else goes to plan, I am hoping for a windy, rainy day in Seattle for the last game so that neither team scores in overtime (despite both teams having terrible defenses).

Based on the calculations/assumptions that I used, the odds have improved from 1 in 2 million last Saturday to 1 in 250,000 yesterday to 1 in 125,000 today given that SD beat SF last night. And, as you noted, if we believe that the favorable matchups outweigh the unfavorable matchups, or that a perfect storm is brewing to generate a tie in the last week, then the odds could be significantly better (albeit still a long shot).

 

[CardsMath]

Hi Cardiac:

I have visited the site for a while (lots of great information here), but just had not gotten around to posting anything. When I saw the question yesterday, I thought I would try to help out.

 

[CardsMath]

Thank you, anytimeuwnt.

 

[Cardiac]

Hi Cardiac:

I have visited the site for a while (lots of great information here), but just had not gotten around to posting anything. When I saw the question yesterday, I thought I would try to help out.

Like I said good stuff. Keep the posts coming.

 

[THESMEL]

yea

I understand and appreciate your good work. without smushing numbers I was just impressed with the better teams suppose to win for this outrageous outcome, were a lot better than the teams suppose to lose.

except the Cards games and the Niners over the Rams which is divisional and i think at the Rams.

I do think seattle and the Rams equally suck and can see it going to overtime at a low score, maybe 0-0, and seeing how we won the Oakland game, a missed field goal at then couls send the Cards a gainst the Saints!

And We have nuthin to lose and everything to gain. but reality is were toast after this Sunday the odds of that are much greater. because this year has been unpredictable.

Hi Thesmel:

No, I did not go to Blue Ridge.

I kept the odds for the other games at 1/2 just for a baseline number, and to try to keep my biases out of the equation (e.g., I believe each of the games except for the tie has a good chance of occurring, although then again I pick the Cardinals to win every week in my football pool). While in some of the games the teams we need to win will be favored, in others it may work the other way. For example, the 49ers have seemed to have the Cardinals number the past few times. And, if SF is as bad as they looked yesterday, we have to somehow hope they can pull off a victory at Saint Louis next week.

In any event, I agree with your concept of overcoming the impossible odds. It would make for a great story if the Cardinals could do it. If everything else goes to plan, I am hoping for a windy, rainy day in Seattle for the last game so that neither team scores in overtime (despite both teams having terrible defenses).

Based on the calculations/assumptions that I used, the odds have improved from 1 in 2 million last Saturday to 1 in 250,000 yesterday to 1 in 125,000 today given that SD beat SF last night. And, as you noted, if we believe that the favorable matchups outweigh the unfavorable matchups, or that a perfect storm is brewing to generate a tie in the last week, then the odds could be significantly better (albeit still a long shot).

 

[FArting]

Out of all the pro teams in Phoenix excluding the Mercury which team has a shot of winning the championship?

 

[Pariah]

I was told there'd be no math.

 

[Linderbee]

Thank goodness we can put this crap to rest now.

 

[Mulli]

Thank goodness we can put this crap to rest now.

So now you are happy the Cards were eliminated?!?!

Boo!!

 

[Linderbee]

So now you are happy the Cards were eliminated?!?!

Boo!!

Yes.

 

[Mulli]

Yes.

Me too.