Setting Up the Draft

[Mitch]

The Cardinals have two weeks and a few more after that to figure a lot of things out---

Key dates:

March 8th---the Manning decision---and it looks very apparent that Manning will not be offered his $28M---so, it also very conceivable, even though Manning's arm may not be at tip top strength by then, that he will be signed to a new contract by some team by the start of free agency on March 13th. I strongly believe that the Cardinals will put their best foot forward in trying to sign PM. And I have a sneaking suspicion that just like last year with all the Kolb to Arizona speculation going on, the Cardinals have the inside track on Manning and they are prepared to sign him, regardless of where his arm strength is now.

March 13th---Levi Brown decision time---and here's my instinct on this one---if the Cardinals do act fast and sign Manning, Levi Brown will be re-signed by March 13th to a new 4-5 year deal, that will be cap friendly but loaded with guaranteed money. Re-signing Levi Brown will mean, imo, the Cardinals will not select a tackle at #13. They will do so in round 3 (#81) or 4 (#112). My guess is Tom Compton of North Dakota at #112.

In addition, two other key decisions will be made by that time:

Stewart Bradley will be retained---and the hope is that he will take over the SILB position, even if it means another year of Paris Lenon garnering a significant number of snaps. What this will mean in terms of the draft is that the cardinals will not be taking Luke Keuchly or an other ILB until perhaps the 5th or 6th round. if Emmanuel Acho is available in the 5th round---he will likely be the pick.

Chansi Stuckey will be released---as the Cardinals enter free agency they intend to add another WR, most likely a slot option like the Broncos' Eddie Royal---which will mean, the Cardinals will not select Kendall Wright at #13.

The biggest questions in free agency will be what moves the Cardinals will try to make at OLB, #2WR and CB.

The hope is to re-sign CB Richard Marshall and I see them getting this done. That settles the CB situation---and rules out a CB like 'Dre Kirkpatrick at CB.

If the Cardinals do not sign a pass rushing OLB---what this will mean is that the following become options at #13:

1. Melvin Ingram, South Carolina
2. Nick Perry, USC
3. Courtney Upshaw, Alabama
4. Andre Branch, Clemson

But I see them making a move to sign Ahmad Brooks to start at SOLB (again to a cap friendly deal loaded with guaranteed money)---so that takes care of that.

If the Cardinals do not sign a #2 WR---which if they sign Peyton manning will fall into their laps in the form of either Reggie Wayne or Pierre Garcon---Garcon is an interesting case in particular in that he just turned down a lucrative 5 year deal from the Colts---and I could see him getting a similar deal with the Cardinals.

If no clear #2 WR is signed---the choice at #13 become crystal clear in this scenario: Michael Floyd, Notre Dame....or Justin Blackmon if he slides (which is more possible than you think---the scouts are very divided on him as a top half 1st round pick---not so much about his talent, but about his temperament).

If Wayne is signed, the Cardinals will draft a WR in Round 4---if Garcon is signed they may wait until the 6th round to draft a WR.

Thus---under these scenarios, here is what I am convinced the Cardinals draft board will look like at #13:

1. David DeCastro, G, Stanford.
2. Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
3. Cordy Glenn, G/T, Georgia
4. Mark Barron, S, Alabama (the wild card).

I believe they would like to set up the draft this way.

March 18th: The date for deciding on Kevin Kolb's $7M bonus. A moot point with regard to the scenario outlined above.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

Really solid thinking, to my mind.

 

[WildBB]

1. David DeCastro, G, Stanford.
2. Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
3. Cordy Glenn, G/T, Georgia
4. Mark Barron, S, Alabama (the wild card).

You may not like it, but Martin might be 1a. and DeCastro 1b.
Only because of the priority of a future LT.

 

[Mitch]

You may not like it, but Martin might be 1a. and DeCastro 1b.
Only because of the priority of a future LT.

I just don't think Martin fits the Cardinals' profile for tackles---I believe they would go with Cordy Glenn a hundred times over Martin. They want tackles who can engulf DEs, especially in the running game. Right or for wrong. That's their formula.

 

[WildBB]

I just don't think Martin fits the Cardinals' profile for tackles---I believe they would go with Cordy Glenn a hundred times over Martin. They want tackles who can engulf DEs, especially in the running game. Right or for wrong. That's their formula.

I see them drafting Matin if they stay at 13 and he's there.

Then I see them putting Levi in at RT. Of course Levi has a say in that now.

Not what I'd do, but I'm thinking it's what they're targeting (LT).

They prob. like DeCastro a lot too. So it depends who's available.

Maybe they like a LT later on in the draft. Then Keuchly could be the guy.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Glenn is a reach at 13.... So it would probably mean he's a perfect tackle draft pick for the Cards.

I just hope to god that Decastro is higher on their board. Really..... Even with our need.... The gulf in talent between DeCastro & Martin is over a mile wide.

 

[kerouac9]

I think the Cards do sign a mid-level WR in free agency. Seems like we blew another 3rd round pick in Early Doucet bang--which puts Whis and company at 0-fer their tenure here. But there will be plenty of options available in free agency at experienced WR positions through the draft.

The plan should be to keep all options open for the draft. It's how they ended up with possibly an all-time draft class in 2011. It means signing two offensive tackles in free agency plus a #2 WR to compete with Andre Roberts (who I expect to be better with more time with Kolb this offseason). It means re-signing Clark Haggans (which I think they will do) and re-signing Levi Brown (which I don't).

Releasing Joey Porter means that the Cards will have an opening for a mid-level free agent to compete at OLB. It'll be interesting to see who they sign.

I'm not putting together my offseason plan until we're at the eve of free agency and see who is franchised and extended before the deadline. It'll definitely be an interesting season.

 

[Buckybird]

Good overall analysis Mitch. How do you sleep at night with all those thoughts in youre mind each night? Seriously, you make Graves look like the human snail that he is.

3 things:
1) there isn't a chance in hades that Blackmon slides to us! He's gonna to be a beast in the NFL, despite his speed (he's sneaky quick) & everyone knows it. I'm praying the Lambs don't get their hands on him.

2) I don't think the Cards will be nearly as active in FA like last year & they do have alot of their own to deal with and I don't think they will have as much cap space as most think. We'll see

3) I hate to even think of 4 more years of Levi on this team...enough is enough! He played better last year in the 2nd half but if I'm not mistaken he still allowed 10 sacks & countless pressures. We reached for Levi once in the draft because of need don't make the same mistake twice!!!

 

[Waysouth]

If Richardson is available at #13, I see the Cards trading down to #17 Cincinnati and possibly picking up Glenn, Floyd, Hightower, Perry or Barron plus a 2nd rounder.

 

[Early]

Hey Mitch, great read!

Since the defense was doing so well in end of the year, I thought that keeping that and instead building the offense through the FA and draft would be most efficient to make a push next year. That's why I have put all my energy into looking at RB's, WR's and TE's. Next up for me is the O-Line prospects. First they need to get Manning, and let the whole offense be designed to match what he wants to do.

RB's:

1. Doug Martin

Exceptional RB. Has no weaknesses in his game. He can cut, he has vision, he can break tackles, he can make the first guy miss, he can take it all the way. I keep looking at him and he almost never makes a mistake in his read. He is patient and already at this point he runs the stretch play to perfection, with such patience and determination to make the cut with use of his vision. When you give up a gap for few yards, knowing a much better gap will open later on, you are patient and clever and he keeps doing that. I bet Houston is all over this prospect - they should be! He keeps giving trouble for that first tackler consistently, whether that is with the moves or strength. He fits any scheme and I think he will be great every down back in the pros. If such a smart RB as Martin is going to play behind a smart OL, he is going to be unstoppable.

2. Trent Richardson

He is not as explosive out of the cut as Pead or Martin, but he is one of the few RB's in this draft that has that dangerous cut. And considering his size and what he brings in terms of breaking tackles, it's impressive to have a RB that has the ability to cut and make defenders miss. I think he will be a great RB in NFL. Like Martin, he also makes that first defender miss consistently, either with the cut or his lower body strength. However, his lower body is exceptional and rarely you see someone this strong, he is in a different league when it comes to this. This is much more dangerous than having upper body strength. Think what the difference is between Beanie Wells and Michael Turner. His vision is good but not close to that of Martin and Pead, and IMO he fits the power scheme much better, however he has the vision and cut to make stretch plays work, every team regardless of scheme runs them.

3. Isaiah Pead

I'm all over this guy. He has the same skill set as Martin. The difference is that he is even more explosive out of the cut. In fact, he is Adrian Peterson explosive out of the cut. He is smaller than the first two listed and that's why he is my third rated back, he won't make as many defenders miss with his body as Martin and Richardson do. However, he has that lateral quickness and what is even more impressive is that he does not use this before he is past the LOS. Many quick RB's tend to rely too much on it and start to use it before they use their vision and the cut. However, Pead is not like that. He is a patient runner and has very good vision and he uses this skill set to get past the defensive Line. He runs with determination. Once there at the LB's, he starts to dance and use his lateral quickness and more often than not, he makes them miss. This is how it should be done, and he is very effective and entertaining to look at. In a zone scheme, he can be an electrifying RB at the next level. I believe in him! Also what puts him as the third rated back IMO, is his inability to pass block at this point. He will need to learn that.

These three are IMO caliber RB's from this draft, being through most of the higher rated RB's, and concentrating on vision and cut and the speed out of the cuts, these three are the ones that stand out for me. LeMichael James is a good runner as well, but he is too small to stay on the field for every down. Polk is also a solid back IMO.


I'll post the same on WR's and TE's later when I find time.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

If Richardson is available at #13, I see the Cards trading down to #17 Cincinnati and possibly picking up Glenn, Floyd, Hightower, Perry or Barron plus a 2nd rounder.

That wouldn't surpise me either. I could also see the Cards taking Richardson at 13 and trading Wells to Cincy for a 3rd round pick, maybe 4th. Graves has said he like Richardson and Whiz may have been hinting when he said they factor need into BPA but if a player is available that you have rated much higher falls to you, then you take him. Richardson, I have seen regularly regarded as the best back since AP to enter the draft and, if he gets by TB, I think will be there.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Mitch I like your thinking about the guards but I heard on the radio that in last decade, or so, only 1 OG has gone in the top 15 and that was Chris Naeole who went #10. OG is not a high priority. It too bad that 2 players, Keuchly and DeCastro, are very good fits for the Cards needs but play positions not highly valued. It's going to be a tough call. Do the Cards pass on players at impact positions like Perry, Ingram, or Martin, for guys at less meaningfull positions. You could throw Barron in with DeCastro and Keuchly as well. Those 3 are head and shoulders the best at their respective positions, something I'm always in favor come draft time, but will still be downgraded because of their position.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

Mitch I like your thinking about the guards but I heard on the radio that in last decade, or so, only 1 OG has gone in the top 15 and that was Chris Naeole who went #10. OG is not a high priority. It too bad that 2 players, Keuchly and DeCastro, are very good fits for the Cards needs but play positions not highly valued. It's going to be a tough call. Do the Cards pass on players at impact positions like Perry, Ingram, or Martin, for guys at less meaningfull positions. You could throw Barron in with DeCastro and Keuchly as well. Those 3 are head and shoulders the best at their respective positions, something I'm always in favor come draft time, but will still be downgraded because of their position.

Haven't seen a serious mock yet that doesn't have both Keuchly and DeCastro at relatively #15.

Their Scout Inc rating sees them a elite players who will contribute on day one. Mayoch says that you plug in DeCastro at right guard and forget about it for 10 years. That, to me, is elite and doubt that either gets past pick 20.

Can't imagine that with the problems Philly had at LB last season that they'd pass on Keuchly, or that the Cards would pass on DeCastro in the hope of securing the interior pocket for years to come.

The "X" factor is what the team does in FA leading up to the draft.

 

[Chopper0080]

Good right up and take on this.

I agree with k9 that ideally we would cover our needs in FA and then use the draft to take the best players regardless of their positions.

 

[Buckybird]

Hey Mitch, great read!

Since the defense was doing so well in end of the year, I thought that keeping that and instead building the offense through the FA and draft would be most efficient to make a push next year. That's why I have put all my energy into looking at RB's, WR's and TE's. Next up for me is the O-Line prospects. First they need to get Manning, and let the whole offense be designed to match what he wants to do.

RB's:

1. Doug Martin

Exceptional RB. Has no weaknesses in his game. He can cut, he has vision, he can break tackles, he can make the first guy miss, he can take it all the way. I keep looking at him and he almost never makes a mistake in his read. He is patient and already at this point he runs the stretch play to perfection, with such patience and determination to make the cut with use of his vision. When you give up a gap for few yards, knowing a much better gap will open later on, you are patient and clever and he keeps doing that. I bet Houston is all over this prospect - they should be! He keeps giving trouble for that first tackler consistently, whether that is with the moves or strength. He fits any scheme and I think he will be great every down back in the pros. If such a smart RB as Martin is going to play behind a smart OL, he is going to be unstoppable.

2. Trent Richardson

He is not as explosive out of the cut as Pead or Martin, but he is one of the few RB's in this draft that has that dangerous cut. And considering his size and what he brings in terms of breaking tackles, it's impressive to have a RB that has the ability to cut and make defenders miss. I think he will be a great RB in NFL. Like Martin, he also makes that first defender miss consistently, either with the cut or his lower body strength. However, his lower body is exceptional and rarely you see someone this strong, he is in a different league when it comes to this. This is much more dangerous than having upper body strength. Think what the difference is between Beanie Wells and Michael Turner. His vision is good but not close to that of Martin and Pead, and IMO he fits the power scheme much better, however he has the vision and cut to make stretch plays work, every team regardless of scheme runs them.

3. Isaiah Pead

I'm all over this guy. He has the same skill set as Martin. The difference is that he is even more explosive out of the cut. In fact, he is Adrian Peterson explosive out of the cut. He is smaller than the first two listed and that's why he is my third rated back, he won't make as many defenders miss with his body as Martin and Richardson do. However, he has that lateral quickness and what is even more impressive is that he does not use this before he is past the LOS. Many quick RB's tend to rely too much on it and start to use it before they use their vision and the cut. However, Pead is not like that. He is a patient runner and has very good vision and he uses this skill set to get past the defensive Line. He runs with determination. Once there at the LB's, he starts to dance and use his lateral quickness and more often than not, he makes them miss. This is how it should be done, and he is very effective and entertaining to look at. In a zone scheme, he can be an electrifying RB at the next level. I believe in him! Also what puts him as the third rated back IMO, is his inability to pass block at this point. He will need to learn that.

These three are IMO caliber RB's from this draft, being through most of the higher rated RB's, and concentrating on vision and cut and the speed out of the cuts, these three are the ones that stand out for me. LeMichael James is a good runner as well, but he is too small to stay on the field for every down. Polk is also a solid back IMO.


I'll post the same on WR's and TE's later when I find time.

Early I totally agree with you about Martin & I've been saying for over a months I think he will have a better NFL career than Richardson...well see. He's also a good pass blocker & receiver out of the backfield.

 

[Vermont Maverick]

Excellent synopsis, Mitch. Hope it happens exactly that way right thru Marshall.

The only place difference I have is that I think there will be no OLB signing. With Levi signed, that would leave biggest positions of need at OG, 1 OT, OLB. I still say Decastro if he is there. If not, a pass rushing OLB (I don't think Upshaw is going to be quick enough - I would look Ingram or Perry in your list)

 

[WildBB]

Hey Mitch, great read!



RB's:

1. Doug Martin

Exceptional RB. Has no weaknesses in his game. He can cut, he has vision, he can break tackles, he can make the first guy miss, he can take it all the way. I keep looking at him and he almost never makes a mistake in his read. He is patient and already at this point he runs the stretch play to perfection, with such patience and determination to make the cut with use of his vision. When you give up a gap for few yards, knowing a much better gap will open later on, you are patient and clever and he keeps doing that. I bet Houston is all over this prospect - they should be! He keeps giving trouble for that first tackler consistently, whether that is with the moves or strength. He fits any scheme and I think he will be great every down back in the pros. If such a smart RB as Martin is going to play behind a smart OL, he is going to be unstoppable.

I'd love to grab him with a 2nd if we traded down. He'll be good.

 

[Chopper0080]

Excellent synopsis, Mitch. Hope it happens exactly that way right thru Marshall.

The only place difference I have is that I think there will be no OLB signing. With Levi signed, that would leave biggest positions of need at OG, 1 OT, OLB. I still say Decastro if he is there. If not, a pass rushing OLB (I don't think Upshaw is going to be quick enough - I would look Ingram or Perry in your list)

I doubt we are able to re-sign Marshall. He will get starting CB money and I don't think we are willing to pay that.

 

[Buckybird]

I doubt we are able to resign Marshall. He will get starting CB money and I don't think we are willing to pay that.

Chopper, that would be shocking that we wouldn't want to pay someone wouldn't it?

 

[Crazy Canuck]

I doubt we are able to re-sign Marshall. He will get starting CB money and I don't think we are willing to pay that.

He showed last year that he's at his best when he fills a role here, there, everywhere. He's a valuable commodity, but I highly doubt that he's seen as a starting corner throughout the league with the requisite compensation.

Left to be seen...

 

[Chopper0080]

Chopper, that would be shocking that we wouldn't want to pay someone wouldn't it?

We do spend money as an organization, but we tend to spend it at the price that we think is best, not what the market sets the price tag at. This is why we lose players so often.

 

[Buckybird]

We do spend money as an organization, but we tend to spend it at the price that we think is best, not what the market sets the price tag at. This is why we lose players so often.

agreed & quite annoying

 

[Crazy Canuck]

We do spend money as an organization, but we tend to spend it at the price that we think is best, not what the market sets the price tag at. This is why we lose players so often.

Well, the Cards certainly set the market price for elite wideouts.

 

[Chopper0080]

Well, the Cards certainly set the market price for elite wideouts.

True, we paid top dollar because we thought Fitzgerald was top dollar.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

He showed last year that he's at his best when he fills a role here, there, everywhere. He's a valuable commodity, but I highly doubt that he's seen as a starting corner throughout the league with the requisite compensation.

Left to be seen...

Agreed, anyone who watches early season film will realize what a mistake it will be to pay him as a top cover CB. His niche is perfect here where he can play a hybrid role.