Shawn Marion best SF in NBA (KG as PF)

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Top Ten Small Forwards
By Kevin Pelton
for HOOPSWORLD.com
Sep 24, 2003, 13:01 Email this article
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I’m not big on ranking players, but I’ve decided to take this final week of the NBA’s summer to pick my top ten at each position for a few reasons. The first is that Mike Kahn has been ranking players on CBSSportsline.com, and I wanted to counter his picks with my own statistically-inclined opinion. You’ll see quite soon that we’ve diverged a bit on some of our picks. The second reason is that one of my first experiences with statistical analysis online – albeit with baseball – was Rob Neyer’s position rankings on ESPN.com more than three years ago. For a guy who hadn’t previously spent much time on the internet or statistically analyzing baseball, those were an eye-opener. The third and final reason is as a nod to my past as a basketball ‘analyst’ – as a kid, I’d spend countless hours ranking players by position, often by ranking them in individual statistical categories and then summing the totals. (Even at the age of 10, I was using per-48 minute numbers, thanks to Skybox and Fleer basketball cards.)
Let me explain up front the rules I’m playing by. I reserve the right to rank less than ten players if I can’t decide between several players. I’m generally considering players at the position I expect them to play this season, except when I’m unsure (this really only played a factor with Utah’s pair of swingmen and Portland’s power forwards). Please don’t e-mail me asking why I didn’t consider an obvious player if he may ranked at another position. I’m basing this not on where players ranked last year, but where I expect them to rank this year. I reserve the right to consider legacy as a factor, or not. Without further ado. . . .

Basketball is a zero-sum game, and while the power forward position now has an overabundance of stars, the corresponding deficit is at the small forward position. There are some quality players at the position, and the best player there is highly underrated, but no one will be mistaking him for Larry Bird. Where are the great small forwards? This year’s rookie duo of LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony provides some hope, but it looks like James will end up elsewhere, potentially at the point. There are some solid youngsters in the pipeline, but it may be a while before small forward is a glamour position again.

The Rankings
You see where I mentioned ranking less than ten players? Well, that was my initial plan at small forward. Actually, I had in mind ranking just three small forwards, because I couldn’t decide between about a dozen other players, give or take. I still barely can, but I decided to rank a dozen players and slide the rest to honorable mention. The moral of this story is that the difference between players four through 12 – and even the honorable mentions – is not all that great.
12. Corey Maggette, L.A. Clippers
After a breakout season at shooting guard, Maggette returns to small forward following Lamar Odom’s free agent departure. In my mind, the Clippers chose the right small forward. Maggette is still just 24, having spent only one season at Duke University, and has been a solid player ever since coming into the league. At small forward, Maggette has no killer weaknesses. He was a very efficient scorer last season, and is also the best perimeter defender on the Clippers (not that that’s necessarily saying much). That’s the kind of player I wouldn’t mind committing money to long-term.

11. Rashard Lewis, Seattle
Lewis’ overall numbers last season don’t do justice to his play. He was asked to make the difficult transition from a complementary player who mostly floated around the perimeter to someone who could create his own offense in the post or on the perimeter. There were growing pains at times, but by the end of the season Lewis was averaging over 19 points per game with pretty solid efficiency. With a year of experience in his current role, Lewis should be better this season. Despite his age – also 24 – I’m not expecting Lewis to make a major improvement, as he’s essentially been the same player overall since his third season.

10. Wally Szczerbiak, Minnesota
Szczerbiak will probably go down as one of the worst players ever selected by coaches to the All-Star Game, at least looking at it from the perspective of performance in the All-Star season. In addition to benefiting from the Timberwolves’ early success in 2001-02, Szczerbiak was also helped by playing shooting guard that season, a much thinner position in the Western Conference. Now that he’s back at small forward, Szczerbiak is certainly behind the two small forwards who made the West All-Star team last year (Shawn Marion and Peja Stojakovic) and behind several more in my book. At 6.3 rebounds per 48 minutes, Szczerbiak is one of the worst small forwards in the league on the glass. And while there’s a lot of talk from the Timberwolves about how improved his defense has been the last two years, I’m still not sold. Szczerbiak is unquestionably an outstanding offensive player, but his overall contributions are not so impressive.

9. Keith Van Horn, New York
By going from power forward to small forward, Van Horn’s relative value goes up dramatically. It’s debatable which position he’s better suited for defensively. His fondness for playing on the perimeter on offense, however, is much more tolerable at small forward. On the other hand, Van Horn couldn’t have possibly picked a worse place to end up. From New Jersey to Philadelphia to New York? Talk about out of the frying pan and into the fire. At least Van Horn didn’t have to worry much about high expectations for the team during his time with the Nets. If the Knicks head to the lottery for a third straight season, Van Horn could make a convenient scapegoat. The criticism he takes is really unfair. Van Horn has his weaknesses, and he’s nobody’s idea of an ideal player stylistically, he does things that help his team win games. And while he might be a playoff underachiever, that really isn’t a big problem for the Knicks, is it?

8. Matt Harpring, Utah
Last season, Harpring was possibly the third-best small forward in the league. I’m dubious whether he can repeat that performance with the pressure of having to create more of his own offense and without John Stockton and Karl Malone around to create shots for him. Even before last year, Harpring was a solid player. I’m legally obligated to refer to him as “a hard-nosed defender”, and he’s a very good rebounder for a small forward. When Harpring was able to combine that with a 58.8% true shooting percentage last season, he was hugely valuable. Even if Stockton and Malone were still around, I’d expect Harpring’s shooting to go down – it has nowhere else to go. With them gone, it almost certainly will decline significantly.

7. Antawn Jamison, Dallas
Jamison’s one of those guys who looks entirely too good going purely by the statistics. In fact, he rated as the third-best small forward in the NBA last season by my VORP system. I’m certainly not so foolish as to take those kinds of ratings literally. Jamison is probably a better offensive player than you think. His scoring efficiency isn’t exceptional, but it was average despite the number of shots he put up in Golden State. Expect Jamison to be much more efficient this year, while his scoring average will go in the other direction. Jamison is also a good, but not great, rebounder. Defensively, he’s generally regarded as a total liability. My boss was down in Oakland with the Sonics for a game against the Warriors in March 2002 and still can’t believe just how little effort Jamison expended on the defensive end of the court during that game. The same thing was apparent watching the game and statistically; Lewis finished with 25 points in 28 minutes, making 10-for-12 from the field. Jamison is usually not that awful defensively, but he’s pretty bad. Still, even despite the defense, I’d probably rate Jamison as high as fourth if it weren’t for his awful 2001-02 campaign, which I’m still having a hard time putting out of my mind.

6. Richard Jefferson, New Jersey
Sometimes, you just have to admit you’re wrong and move on. Nothing suggested to me that Jefferson was going to be much of an NBA player. As a Pac-10 fan, I watched him regularly on television during his college career, and in person once. With the exception of a devastating game-winning putback to beat the University of Washington his freshman year, Jefferson never stood out to me – Gilbert Arenas and Michael Wright were always the players I considered key to Arizona’s success (one for two isn’t bad, right?). His numbers, when I ran them through my system to evaluate NBA prospects earlier this summer, suggested a career reserve or worse. The Nets obviously saw something I missed, to their great benefit. Jefferson was at least as good as the player he replaced, Van Horn, last year. He should be even better after a summer spent in part playing for Team USA in Puerto Rico. Jefferson has always been a fine defender, but he added a greater offensive dimension last season. Jason Kidd deserves a lot of the credit for that, as Jefferson effectively took advantage of Kidd’s ability to get him the ball on the break or in the halfcourt offense, but getting open isn’t easy. Jefferson will have to compete with a strong team for shot attempts, but should boost his scoring average to 17 or so points per game next season. Combined with his rebounding and defense, that will make him one of the league’s best small forwards.

5. Ron Artest, Indiana
I’m reluctant to rank Artest this high. Frankly, I’m not sure he’s better than Maggette – and when Artest to Seattle rumors surfaced recently, nobody was thinking about bench Lewis in Artest’s favor. Obviously, Artest’s volatile temper makes him difficult to rank this high. While I don’t really care that much if Artest gets technicals or flagrants, when he gets himself suspended he is clearly hurting his team. That kind of trouble can also be a distraction. Also, while Artest is a tremendous defensive talent, arguably the best perimeter defender in the league, his offense is not that great. His 52.9% true shooting percentage was only average, and as the Pacers’ second-leading scorer, Artest was putting it up on a regular basis. Artest’s 50.9% shooting in November had everybody excited about a breakout season, but he never shot over 44% in a month again the rest of the season. Still, that defense! Few players in the league can combine steals (2.3 spg, second in the NBA) with the ability to lock up a player one-on-one; nobody does it better than Artest. If he can keep himself on the court for 75+ games and mentally in them, there’s no question he ranks this high or higher. Incidentally, how did Artest finish second in Defensive Player of the Year voting but only make second-team All-Defense? The practical answer is that different people do the voting (media for DPOY, coaches for All-Defense), but that seems like a surprisingly large discrepancy. We’ve seen similar things in Rookie of the Year voting versus All-Rookie team, and that disturbs me.

4. Andrei Kirilenko, Utah
Yes, my fourth-best small forward in the NBA wasn’t even a starter last season. Do you have a problem with that? Obviously, there is the same concern with Kirilenko as there is with Harpring – how will he hold up with Stockton and Malone gone? My answer, obviously, is better than Harpring, for a few reasons. The first is silly and psychological – I don’t have any non-Utah data to fall back on for Kirilenko. I know that Harpring wasn’t very good offensively in his previous stops, but I can’t say that for Kirilenko. The second is that I’m more convinced of Kirilenko’s ability to create his own shots, something he gets practice at every summer playing for the Russian National Team. This summer in Eurobasket 2003, Kirilenko averaged 23.2 ppg, second amongst all players participating, though the Russians finished a distant eighth. The final reason I favor Kirilenko is that he is even better than Harpring in areas besides scoring. Kirilenko picks up a ton of blocks and steals. While he’s skinny and can be muscled in the post, he also bothers players with his long arms. I’m a big fan of Kirilenko’s defensively. While not having Stockton and Malone is clearly a negative overall, it does afford Kirilenko the opportunity to become the Jazz’s go-to guy next year.

3. Jamal Mashburn, New Orleans
Statistically, Mashburn shouldn’t rate this high. I’ll concede that to some extent I ranked him so high because that’s the popular consensus – Kahn had him first in his list of small forwards. That’s odd in that a do-it-all guy like Mashburn will usually get overlooked in favor of a player who excels in one dimension. Of course, Mashburn does have that nice scoring average – second only to Jamison amongst small forwards – to aid him. Mashburn does have that fact that he handles a large part of the Hornets offense to justify his mediocre true shooting percentage. Mashburn is an excellent ballhandler whose 5.6 assists per game were tops amongst small forwards last year. He’s also a solid defender. Add it up, and well he’s not the best small forward in the game, he is a legit All-Star.

2. Peja Stojakovic, Sacramento
Hands down, Stojakovic is the best offensive small forward in the NBA. His true shooting percentage (60.0%) was tops amongst small forwards, while he was second to Jamison in points per minute. Efficiency and productivity? That’s an excellent combination. Stojakovic is a better rebounder than you probably think, ranking ahead of Artest and Mashburn, to give two examples, in rebound rate last season. He may also be a better defender than he gets credit for.

1. Shawn Marion, Phoenix
Marion is the best small forward in the game, and it isn’t particularly close. With Kevin Garnett at power forward, Marion has the best rebound average of any small forward. While his rebound rate isn’t quite the best – Donyell Marshall and a few lesser-used players rank ahead of him – it’s very near the top. Marion also might be the second-best defender amongst small forwards after Artest. He was one of just 13 players in the NBA last season to average more than a block and a steal per game. While those don’t always translate to defensive ability, in Marion’s case they do. While Marion isn’t extremely efficient offensively, he is as efficient as Jamison while also scoring 20-plus points per game. He’s still probably not one of the top ten players in the league, but Marion is a fantastic player and just 25 years of age.
 
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The Stats
Player PPG APG RPG TS% Pass Eff VORP
Shawn Marion 21.2 2.4 9.5 0.538 0.74 0.534 352
P. Stojakovic 19.2 2.0 5.5 0.600 0.80 0.551 297
Jamal Mashburn 21.6 5.6 6.1 0.507 2.79 0.492 206
A. Kirilenko 12.0 1.7 5.3 0.598 0.63 0.542 248
Ron Artest 15.5 2.9 5.2 0.529 1.17 0.510 184
R. Jefferson 15.5 2.5 6.4 0.563 0.90 0.502 208
Antawn Jamison 22.2 1.9 7.0 0.542 0.43 0.519 287
Matt Harpring 17.6 1.7 6.6 0.588 0.43 0.539 280
Keith Van Horn 15.9 1.3 7.1 0.556 0.25 0.513 194
W. Szczerbiak 17.6 2.6 4.6 0.567 1.16 0.513 152
Rashard Lewis 18.1 1.7 6.5 0.537 0.41 0.494 195
Corey Maggette 16.8 1.9 5.0 0.564 0.51 0.509 159

TS% = points/(2*(fga+(.44*fta)))
Pass = 10*(ast/to)*(ast/min)
Eff is per-minute efficiency, VORP value over replacement player,my own formulas explained here


The Honorable Mentions
(Listed alphabetically)
Carmelo Anthony, Denver
One of just two rookies to make my honorable mentions at any position, Anthony should master the things that make a player an honorable mention small forward – scoring and rebounding – right away. Everything else comes later . . . or, in the case of Glenn Robinson, doesn’t.

Ricky Davis, Cleveland
Showed that his 2001-02 performance was not a fluke, duplicating it while also starting regularly all season long. Still, not well-rounded enough to crack the top ten . . . er, 12.

Juwan Howard, Orlando
Tough to say how he will react to an expected position change. Now in his 30s, seems unlikely he can effectively defend on the perimeter. Rebounding will become an asset, but ballhandling is subpar.

Donyell Marshall, Chicago
Very similar to Howard, except without the size to be as effective at the power forward position. Excellent rebounder for a small forward and tough to stop in the post, but presents the same mismatch – in the opponent’s favor – at the other end of the court.

Glenn Robinson, Philadelphia
Like most of the guys in this group (and at the bottom of the top 12, for that matter), a good scorer and rebounder but a sieve defensively. Hawks’ record when he was out raised questions about his value to a team.


The Other Stuff
Most Underrated
Shane Battier, Memphis
Shawn Marion
Ruben Patterson, Portland (on the court)
Matt Harpring
Andrei Kirilenko
Most Overrated

Darius Miles, Cleveland
Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Denver
Devean George, L.A. Lakers
Glenn Robinson, Philadelphia
Jim Jackson, Free Agent
Top Rookies (keep in mind these are again based on this season only)

Carmelo Anthony
Jarvis Hayes, Washington
Josh Howard, Dallas
Luke Walton, L.A. Lakers
Jason Kapono, Cleveland
Up-and-coming
(Top young players not in the top ten/honorable mention)

Shane Battier
Caron Butler, Miami
Tayshaun Prince, Detroit
Mike Dunleavy, Golden State
Gerald Wallace, Sacramento
 

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I Think it might have been foriener the sang the song TOO MUCH TIME ON MY HANDS!:D :p ;)
 
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