se7en
Go SUNS Go
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/writers/brad_weinstein/10/26/pacific.preview/index.html
Follow The Leader
Mike Bibby
John Biever/SI
No playing favorites here: This division is wide open. The Suns came into training camp as the front-runner, but losing potential MVP candidate Amaré Stoudemire at least until the All-Star break because of a knee injury makes them just another playoff hopeful with serious questions. In other words, they're a lot like every other team in the Pacific. To wit:
Sacramento Kings
The Kings look formidable on paper with a potentially strong starting five and good frontcourt depth ... but how will newcomers Bonzi Wells and Shareef Abdur-Rahim fit into their motion offense? Abdur-Rahim, in particular, must adjust because he's accustomed to working methodically with his back to the basket; making plays out of the high post like Chris Webber and Vlade Divac used to do so skillfully in Sacramento's system is not his forte. As for Wells, he wore out his welcome in Portland and Memphis, the latter stop ending with a team-issued suspension during last season's playoffs. Beyond getting the offense running efficiently, there is the pesky matter of stopping the other team. Coach Rick Adelman said the Kings should be better defensively this season but acknowledged, "We don't have a lot of players whose primary skills are on the defensive end." What Sacramento does have is a Peja Stojakovic-Mike Bibby-Brad Miller nucleus with a track record of regular-season success.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers have Kobe Bryant and Lamar Odom ... but what can Phil Jackson do with the rest of an underwhelming roster? Jackson must shore up one of the league's worst defenses, settle on a starting point guard (unproven Smush Parker appears to have the edge), cobble together a bench and deal with a scarcity of quality size (new starting power forward Kwame Brown will be key). The offseason brought little in the way of immediate reinforcements, in part because the Lakers used their lottery pick (No. 10 overall) on 7-foot teenager Andrew Bynum.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors feature a Baron Davis-Jason Richardson backcourt and dangerous transition game ... but will they defend adequately enough to break a league-high 11-year playoff drought? And are they too reliant on perimeter offense? Coach Mike Montgomery could have uttered the same words as Adelman to describe the Warriors, with the exception of shot-blocking center Adonal Foyle and possibly swingman Mickael Pietrus, who seemed more focused on scoring than defending last season. Improving last season's .458 opponents' field-goal percentage certainly would help the Warriors win ugly on nights when their running game stalls. Meanwhile, the lack of post-scoring will continue to be a problem unless jump-shooting power forward Troy Murphy has added to his limited repertoire or rookie power forward Ike Diogu emerges as an option on the block.
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers have stockpiled offensive talent with veteran guards Sam Cassell and Cuttino Mobley joining forwards Corey Maggette and Elton Brand ... but can they share the basketball? Cassell, Mobley and Maggette all can be high-volume shooters, while Brand tends to grind the offense to a halt when operating in the post. The Clippers will miss the efficient scoring of 2004-05 Most Improved Player Bobby Simmons, who signed with Milwaukee in the offseason. On top of the chemistry concerns, the Clippers lack the depth to weather injuries to top players and share similar defensive shortcomings as the other California teams.
Swimming Upstream
Shawn Marion
John W. McDonough/SI
Phoenix Suns
Can the Suns cross their fingers and play basketball at the same time? If Stoudemire meets the four-month timetable in his return from microfracture knee surgery, last season's Western Conference runner-ups are looking at a minimum of 50 games without one of the NBA's most dominant players. Phoenix will attempt to stay afloat by moving All-Star Shawn Marion back to power forward -- he had been slated to play small forward alongside Stoudemire and Kurt Thomas in the frontcourt -- and inserting former Pacer James Jones at small forward. Thomas, 33, an effective mid-range shooter who should enjoy playing pick-and-roll with point guard Steve Nash, probably will get more minutes than he anticipated because the Suns' only backup big men are 33-year-old Brian Grant and Euroleague veteran Pat Burke. The Suns have even experimented with 6-8, 215-pound Boris Diaw at power forward as part of a small lineup, an interesting move considering Atlanta once tried the Frenchman at point guard before dealing him to Phoenix in the Joe Johnson trade.
Even without their most ferocious finisher, the Suns intend to press ahead with the running game. "We'll still try to be the reckless-abandon offense, up and down, just maybe not now with the thunderous dunks and unbelievable plays,'' coach Mike D'Antoni said. "But we have a lot of guys who can get hot, hit open shots and make plays."
Breakout Stars
Chris Wilcox
Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images
Chris Wilcox, Clippers
No pressure or anything, but coach Mike Dunleavy said early in training camp that the Clippers "would definitely make the playoffs" if the eighth pick in the '02 draft produced a great season. General manager Elgin Baylor piled it on thick when he told the Los Angeles Times that Wilcox reminded him of Stoudemire. If all that weren't enough motivation, there's always this: Wilcox is set to become a restricted free agent after the season, making '05-06 as good a time as any for the chronically inconsistent power forward-center to deliver on his promise.
One other Clipper to watch: Shaun Livingston, who is having trouble staying healthy for the second consecutive season (he is expected to miss a month with a back injury). Dunleavy sees star quality in the slender 20-year-old point guard with exceptional court vision and passing ability, but Cassell's presence means Livingston likely is a year away from taking the reins.
Mike Dunleavy, Warriors
While scuffling through his rookie season in '02-03, Dunleavy described himself as "a late bloomer. It takes me awhile to figure things out, but once I do, look out." Dunleavy should have things in order now after three uneven seasons in which he showed tantalizing flashes -- for instance, 15.1 points a game on 52.2 percent shooting from the field in the final month of '04-05 -- but also struggled mightily defensively, played passively and was booed at home. Like Wilcox, Dunleavy has extra incentive because unless he signs a contract extension by Oct. 31, he's headed for restricted free agency next July.
Raja Bell, Suns
Known as a tenacious defender with a nasty streak, the 29-year-old swingman quietly has progressed on the offensive end. He averaged 12.3 points on 45.4 percent shooting from the field (including 40.3 from 3-point range) as a part-time starter with Utah last season. Bell's minutes have risen in each of his five seasons, a trend that should continue with his new team because the Suns have to replace Johnson (39.5 minutes a game last season) and Quentin Richardson (35.9).
Hot Seat
Kwame Brown
Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images
Kwame Brown, C/F -- Lakers
Four years later, the top line of Brown's résumé still reads, No. 1 overall pick in 2001. Brown will try to jump-start his career after a mostly fruitless tenure in Washington that ended with his being banished one day before the Wizards played the deciding game of their first-round playoff series with Chicago. He faces immediate pressure to succeed in Los Angeles, with Jackson telling reporters that Brown's performance "could be the difference between whether we're going to be a good team or whether we can be a really good team."
Rick Adelman, Coach -- Kings
Sacramento's offseason flirtation with Jackson was not exactly a ringing endorsement for Adelman, who has led the franchise to seven consecutive playoff berths and four straight 55-win seasons. Now Adelman must guide a revamped team -- starters Bibby, Stojakovic and Miller and second-year swingman Kevin Martin are the only holdovers from the beginning of last season -- while working in the last year of his contract.
Steve Nash, PG -- Suns
The league's reigning MVP makes this list only because Phoenix will lean on him more than ever early in the season. With Stoudemire on the shelf and wing scorers Johnson and Richardson having departed, D'Antoni expects the assist king to increase his shot attempts from last season's 11.4 per game. "His numbers might be even better than last year offensively," D'Antoni said. "I don't know about his assists (11.5 a game last season), but definitely his scoring."
Sam Cassell, PG -- Clippers
The headstrong point guard could be the Clippers' X-factor, not Wilcox as coach Dunleavy has suggested. Cassell can be a handful, but he's also one of the few Clippers with big-game experience. Winning close games might depend on his decision-making. A free agent after the season, the 36-year-old Cassell can help himself by leading the Clippers to the playoffs for the first time since 1997.
The Warriors
The entire team takes up residence here because last season's 14-4 finish has created lofty expectations, as evidenced by the 3,600 new season-ticket holders pining for the franchise's first playoff berth since '94. "It's definitely time for us to take that next step. We know that," Richardson said.
Fresh Faces
Ike Diogu
Noah Graham/NBA via Getty Images
Francisco Garcia, Kings
The 23rd pick in the '05 draft joins last year's first-round choice, Martin, in giving Adelman two high-energy players off the bench at either shooting guard or small forward. Garcia arrives with NBA range and isn't bashful about showing it. He'll have to be more discerning with his shot selection to earn Adelman's confidence.
Ike Diogu, Warriors
A broken left hand has kept the 6-8, 255-pound power forward from cracking the rotation immediately. Diogu, however, could catch up quickly because the Warriors are not especially deep up front. The Brand comparisons are premature, but the Warriors are bullish about the potential of a player who led the Pac-10 in scoring the last two seasons and reached double figures in all 91 games at Arizona State.
Daniel Ewing, Clippers
Livingston's absence clears the way for the second-round pick to compete with journeyman Anthony Goldwire for minutes behind Cassell at least through November. The former Duke guard has a better chance to contribute immediately than the Clippers' lottery pick, 18-year-old Russian forward Yaroslav Korolev, who will be brought along slowly.
Burning Questions
Phil Jackson
John Biever/SI
(1) Will Stoudemire have an impact this season?
The Suns are optimistic about the four-month recovery estimate because Stoudemire underwent the "best-case scenario" microfracture surgery (the small lesion was located in a less weight-bearing area on the inside of his left knee). The team also cites his age (he turns 23 on Nov. 16) and structural health of his knee as reasons to believe that Stoudemire can avoid the struggles of some other players who had the surgery, including Webber, Penny Hardaway, Allan Houston and Jamal Mashburn. Nevertheless, it's unclear how much explosion Stoudemire would be able to regain immediately, or if it's even worth bringing him back so quickly given he recently signed a five-year contract extension worth more than $70 million.
(2) How will Phil Jackson fare in his return to L.A.?
It will be interesting to watch Jackson coach a team that isn't ready to contend for a championship. (Will he actually call a timeout now when the opponent is on a 12-0 run?) Even if Bryant turns in a monstrous season and Odom thrives with more playmaking opportunities, Jackson is no lock to keep the Lakers from missing the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time in 30 years. Two immediate challenges for Jackson: connecting with Brown and getting the players beyond square one in the triangle offense.
(3) Can Baron Davis stay healthy?
It's easy to forget that the dynamic point guard played every game his first three seasons. He's been an iffy proposition ever since, averaging only 54 games the last three seasons. The Warriors' playoff hopes hinge on having Davis in the lineup quarterbacking an up-tempo offense that could threaten the league lead in scoring. Golden State went 18-10 with Davis last season (including 14-5 when he started) and 16-38 before he arrived in a trade with New Orleans.
Key Number
672 -- Regular-season games played without a playoff appearance for Abdur-Rahim, the longest-active streak in the league. Center Adonal Foyle, who is entering his ninth season with the Warriors, is second at 516 games.
Fearless Forecast
Baron Davis
Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images
The Kings have some meshing to do, but their experience and home-court excellence will propel them to an eighth consecutive playoff appearance. The Suns might light up scoreboards again, but they'll also be watching them in April as they jockey for playoff position. While Bryant will regain his All-NBA first-team form under Jackson, the Lakers' ceiling is the eighth playoff seed. The Warriors will ride a hot start (12 of their first 20 games are at home) into playoff contention -- an attention grabber that will raise hopes for the franchise's first All-Star selection since Latrell Sprewell in 1997 (Davis and Richardson will compete for the honor if both are healthy). The Clippers have sleeper potential but just as easily could spend the season bickering about shots and touches.
Follow The Leader
Mike Bibby
John Biever/SI
No playing favorites here: This division is wide open. The Suns came into training camp as the front-runner, but losing potential MVP candidate Amaré Stoudemire at least until the All-Star break because of a knee injury makes them just another playoff hopeful with serious questions. In other words, they're a lot like every other team in the Pacific. To wit:
Sacramento Kings
The Kings look formidable on paper with a potentially strong starting five and good frontcourt depth ... but how will newcomers Bonzi Wells and Shareef Abdur-Rahim fit into their motion offense? Abdur-Rahim, in particular, must adjust because he's accustomed to working methodically with his back to the basket; making plays out of the high post like Chris Webber and Vlade Divac used to do so skillfully in Sacramento's system is not his forte. As for Wells, he wore out his welcome in Portland and Memphis, the latter stop ending with a team-issued suspension during last season's playoffs. Beyond getting the offense running efficiently, there is the pesky matter of stopping the other team. Coach Rick Adelman said the Kings should be better defensively this season but acknowledged, "We don't have a lot of players whose primary skills are on the defensive end." What Sacramento does have is a Peja Stojakovic-Mike Bibby-Brad Miller nucleus with a track record of regular-season success.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers have Kobe Bryant and Lamar Odom ... but what can Phil Jackson do with the rest of an underwhelming roster? Jackson must shore up one of the league's worst defenses, settle on a starting point guard (unproven Smush Parker appears to have the edge), cobble together a bench and deal with a scarcity of quality size (new starting power forward Kwame Brown will be key). The offseason brought little in the way of immediate reinforcements, in part because the Lakers used their lottery pick (No. 10 overall) on 7-foot teenager Andrew Bynum.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors feature a Baron Davis-Jason Richardson backcourt and dangerous transition game ... but will they defend adequately enough to break a league-high 11-year playoff drought? And are they too reliant on perimeter offense? Coach Mike Montgomery could have uttered the same words as Adelman to describe the Warriors, with the exception of shot-blocking center Adonal Foyle and possibly swingman Mickael Pietrus, who seemed more focused on scoring than defending last season. Improving last season's .458 opponents' field-goal percentage certainly would help the Warriors win ugly on nights when their running game stalls. Meanwhile, the lack of post-scoring will continue to be a problem unless jump-shooting power forward Troy Murphy has added to his limited repertoire or rookie power forward Ike Diogu emerges as an option on the block.
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers have stockpiled offensive talent with veteran guards Sam Cassell and Cuttino Mobley joining forwards Corey Maggette and Elton Brand ... but can they share the basketball? Cassell, Mobley and Maggette all can be high-volume shooters, while Brand tends to grind the offense to a halt when operating in the post. The Clippers will miss the efficient scoring of 2004-05 Most Improved Player Bobby Simmons, who signed with Milwaukee in the offseason. On top of the chemistry concerns, the Clippers lack the depth to weather injuries to top players and share similar defensive shortcomings as the other California teams.
Swimming Upstream
Shawn Marion
John W. McDonough/SI
Phoenix Suns
Can the Suns cross their fingers and play basketball at the same time? If Stoudemire meets the four-month timetable in his return from microfracture knee surgery, last season's Western Conference runner-ups are looking at a minimum of 50 games without one of the NBA's most dominant players. Phoenix will attempt to stay afloat by moving All-Star Shawn Marion back to power forward -- he had been slated to play small forward alongside Stoudemire and Kurt Thomas in the frontcourt -- and inserting former Pacer James Jones at small forward. Thomas, 33, an effective mid-range shooter who should enjoy playing pick-and-roll with point guard Steve Nash, probably will get more minutes than he anticipated because the Suns' only backup big men are 33-year-old Brian Grant and Euroleague veteran Pat Burke. The Suns have even experimented with 6-8, 215-pound Boris Diaw at power forward as part of a small lineup, an interesting move considering Atlanta once tried the Frenchman at point guard before dealing him to Phoenix in the Joe Johnson trade.
Even without their most ferocious finisher, the Suns intend to press ahead with the running game. "We'll still try to be the reckless-abandon offense, up and down, just maybe not now with the thunderous dunks and unbelievable plays,'' coach Mike D'Antoni said. "But we have a lot of guys who can get hot, hit open shots and make plays."
Breakout Stars
Chris Wilcox
Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images
Chris Wilcox, Clippers
No pressure or anything, but coach Mike Dunleavy said early in training camp that the Clippers "would definitely make the playoffs" if the eighth pick in the '02 draft produced a great season. General manager Elgin Baylor piled it on thick when he told the Los Angeles Times that Wilcox reminded him of Stoudemire. If all that weren't enough motivation, there's always this: Wilcox is set to become a restricted free agent after the season, making '05-06 as good a time as any for the chronically inconsistent power forward-center to deliver on his promise.
One other Clipper to watch: Shaun Livingston, who is having trouble staying healthy for the second consecutive season (he is expected to miss a month with a back injury). Dunleavy sees star quality in the slender 20-year-old point guard with exceptional court vision and passing ability, but Cassell's presence means Livingston likely is a year away from taking the reins.
Mike Dunleavy, Warriors
While scuffling through his rookie season in '02-03, Dunleavy described himself as "a late bloomer. It takes me awhile to figure things out, but once I do, look out." Dunleavy should have things in order now after three uneven seasons in which he showed tantalizing flashes -- for instance, 15.1 points a game on 52.2 percent shooting from the field in the final month of '04-05 -- but also struggled mightily defensively, played passively and was booed at home. Like Wilcox, Dunleavy has extra incentive because unless he signs a contract extension by Oct. 31, he's headed for restricted free agency next July.
Raja Bell, Suns
Known as a tenacious defender with a nasty streak, the 29-year-old swingman quietly has progressed on the offensive end. He averaged 12.3 points on 45.4 percent shooting from the field (including 40.3 from 3-point range) as a part-time starter with Utah last season. Bell's minutes have risen in each of his five seasons, a trend that should continue with his new team because the Suns have to replace Johnson (39.5 minutes a game last season) and Quentin Richardson (35.9).
Hot Seat
Kwame Brown
Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images
Kwame Brown, C/F -- Lakers
Four years later, the top line of Brown's résumé still reads, No. 1 overall pick in 2001. Brown will try to jump-start his career after a mostly fruitless tenure in Washington that ended with his being banished one day before the Wizards played the deciding game of their first-round playoff series with Chicago. He faces immediate pressure to succeed in Los Angeles, with Jackson telling reporters that Brown's performance "could be the difference between whether we're going to be a good team or whether we can be a really good team."
Rick Adelman, Coach -- Kings
Sacramento's offseason flirtation with Jackson was not exactly a ringing endorsement for Adelman, who has led the franchise to seven consecutive playoff berths and four straight 55-win seasons. Now Adelman must guide a revamped team -- starters Bibby, Stojakovic and Miller and second-year swingman Kevin Martin are the only holdovers from the beginning of last season -- while working in the last year of his contract.
Steve Nash, PG -- Suns
The league's reigning MVP makes this list only because Phoenix will lean on him more than ever early in the season. With Stoudemire on the shelf and wing scorers Johnson and Richardson having departed, D'Antoni expects the assist king to increase his shot attempts from last season's 11.4 per game. "His numbers might be even better than last year offensively," D'Antoni said. "I don't know about his assists (11.5 a game last season), but definitely his scoring."
Sam Cassell, PG -- Clippers
The headstrong point guard could be the Clippers' X-factor, not Wilcox as coach Dunleavy has suggested. Cassell can be a handful, but he's also one of the few Clippers with big-game experience. Winning close games might depend on his decision-making. A free agent after the season, the 36-year-old Cassell can help himself by leading the Clippers to the playoffs for the first time since 1997.
The Warriors
The entire team takes up residence here because last season's 14-4 finish has created lofty expectations, as evidenced by the 3,600 new season-ticket holders pining for the franchise's first playoff berth since '94. "It's definitely time for us to take that next step. We know that," Richardson said.
Fresh Faces
Ike Diogu
Noah Graham/NBA via Getty Images
Francisco Garcia, Kings
The 23rd pick in the '05 draft joins last year's first-round choice, Martin, in giving Adelman two high-energy players off the bench at either shooting guard or small forward. Garcia arrives with NBA range and isn't bashful about showing it. He'll have to be more discerning with his shot selection to earn Adelman's confidence.
Ike Diogu, Warriors
A broken left hand has kept the 6-8, 255-pound power forward from cracking the rotation immediately. Diogu, however, could catch up quickly because the Warriors are not especially deep up front. The Brand comparisons are premature, but the Warriors are bullish about the potential of a player who led the Pac-10 in scoring the last two seasons and reached double figures in all 91 games at Arizona State.
Daniel Ewing, Clippers
Livingston's absence clears the way for the second-round pick to compete with journeyman Anthony Goldwire for minutes behind Cassell at least through November. The former Duke guard has a better chance to contribute immediately than the Clippers' lottery pick, 18-year-old Russian forward Yaroslav Korolev, who will be brought along slowly.
Burning Questions
Phil Jackson
John Biever/SI
(1) Will Stoudemire have an impact this season?
The Suns are optimistic about the four-month recovery estimate because Stoudemire underwent the "best-case scenario" microfracture surgery (the small lesion was located in a less weight-bearing area on the inside of his left knee). The team also cites his age (he turns 23 on Nov. 16) and structural health of his knee as reasons to believe that Stoudemire can avoid the struggles of some other players who had the surgery, including Webber, Penny Hardaway, Allan Houston and Jamal Mashburn. Nevertheless, it's unclear how much explosion Stoudemire would be able to regain immediately, or if it's even worth bringing him back so quickly given he recently signed a five-year contract extension worth more than $70 million.
(2) How will Phil Jackson fare in his return to L.A.?
It will be interesting to watch Jackson coach a team that isn't ready to contend for a championship. (Will he actually call a timeout now when the opponent is on a 12-0 run?) Even if Bryant turns in a monstrous season and Odom thrives with more playmaking opportunities, Jackson is no lock to keep the Lakers from missing the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time in 30 years. Two immediate challenges for Jackson: connecting with Brown and getting the players beyond square one in the triangle offense.
(3) Can Baron Davis stay healthy?
It's easy to forget that the dynamic point guard played every game his first three seasons. He's been an iffy proposition ever since, averaging only 54 games the last three seasons. The Warriors' playoff hopes hinge on having Davis in the lineup quarterbacking an up-tempo offense that could threaten the league lead in scoring. Golden State went 18-10 with Davis last season (including 14-5 when he started) and 16-38 before he arrived in a trade with New Orleans.
Key Number
672 -- Regular-season games played without a playoff appearance for Abdur-Rahim, the longest-active streak in the league. Center Adonal Foyle, who is entering his ninth season with the Warriors, is second at 516 games.
Fearless Forecast
Baron Davis
Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images
The Kings have some meshing to do, but their experience and home-court excellence will propel them to an eighth consecutive playoff appearance. The Suns might light up scoreboards again, but they'll also be watching them in April as they jockey for playoff position. While Bryant will regain his All-NBA first-team form under Jackson, the Lakers' ceiling is the eighth playoff seed. The Warriors will ride a hot start (12 of their first 20 games are at home) into playoff contention -- an attention grabber that will raise hopes for the franchise's first All-Star selection since Latrell Sprewell in 1997 (Davis and Richardson will compete for the honor if both are healthy). The Clippers have sleeper potential but just as easily could spend the season bickering about shots and touches.
